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Saturday, August 14, 2010

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I don't care if Dickey's knuckler was turbo charged with the power burst from Tiger Woods Golf by Playstation, they need more than one hit against that guy.

Perhaps a more patient approach would benefit the lineup...like say..the 7th inning through when it became apparent that a single run would change the game and at bats thusly, became much more precious.

Damn, can't blame Milt completely anymore.

As far as the Utley injury goes- I believe that when he had the surgery they said 6-8 weeks. If he is back Tuesday that would be just shy of 7 weeks. This would fly in the face of the amateur doctors on here who had him out til September 1st at the earliest.

Like I said at the time 6-8 weeks means that it could be as little as 6 weeks or as much as 8. Thursday was exactly 6 weeks from the time he had surgery. Not everyone heals at the same rate for whatever biological reason. Luckily for us- Chase has healed rather quickly and hit the shorter end of the projections.

I think it is time to demote JRoll out of the lead-off spot. He is not setting the pace for the rest of the line-up. I think batting victo 1 is the best option at this point.

Jerry Manuel went to New Orleans to check out their AAA club and wandered into a dark area of the French Quarter. While in a shop selling black arts souvenirs, he started talking with the ruddy complected shopkeeper. Jerry started lamenting about how poorly his team fared against the Phillies. To make a long story short, Jerry signed his soul away to do better against the Phillies. Unfortunately, being dumb, Jerry didn't realize that the contract was only written for the Mets to do better against the Phillies; it didn't mention about doing better against the other teams on their schedule.

This has to be it; I can't think of any other rational reason that can explain four straight shutout losses at Bankrupt Field.

Lets forget about this silly J-Roll and Valdez comparison when we have a much more debatable one staring us in the face. Utley vs. Wolverine - who heals faster?

I really don't understand the people despairing over the game last night...1 bad loss does not = season over, despite the statements of some posters.

We're talking about a team that has won 3 straight division titles, 2 straight NL pennants and a WFC in the last 3 years. They have had 5 all-stars miss a good chunk of the season, and that doesn't include the injuries to players like Happ, Moyer, Lidge, Blanton, Ruiz, Gload, etc. Despite this, they are only 3 games out with 47 to go, have a history of turning it on the second half, have a 16-5 record since the ASB, and their stars are all getting healthy together for the first time since April.

Why are people freaking out again?

I find the despair especially puzzling, because everyone had been saying that the team just had to play .500 ball until Howard and Utley returned. They've exceeded those expectations.

Chris: Because it's more fun to just always claim the sky is falling. Doesn't matter if that isn't based on any rational thought.

Chris- It isn't despair...it is this: Cole Hamels, as we know from last year, is fragile psychologically. Understandably so, he may not be able to take the disappointment of his team never scoring for him when he is pitching lights out. Eventually he will break again and it will be WFW III

steve - I hope that was sarcasm.

I am one of those who believe that Dobbs and Sweeney are battling for the final bench spot when the roster is healthy. For those worried about the need for a second backup IF'er, that worry, I think is mitigated by several factors:
- Valdez can play all three spots
- Polanco's versatility
- The 3 starters will never be pinch hit for
- Dobbs can barely play those positions anyway

This isn't the scoring drought that its being made out to be. It was one lousy game that happened a day after a 9 run late game comeback.

Don't panic.

"Chris: Because it's more fun to just always claim the sky is falling. Doesn't matter if that isn't based on any rational thought."

Seriously, I'd be a lot more worried as a Braves fan. All the pressure's on them going forward.

If Howard and Utley both come back before 9/1, Dobbs has to be DFA'd. They're not dropping Sweeney, and there isn't another move to make.

Hamels loses back to back 1-0 shutouts to the hated Mets and we're not allowed to complain??? We have a hitting instructor as our manager. We're known as a team that scores a bunch of runs. I'm going to complain. It's part of the small print on the secret document that I signed with JW in blood as part of my BL posting privileges contract. It reads, "After losses, complaining is both expected and warranted. After wins, complaining is optional."

Lake Fred: You're perfectly allowed to complain, as I have in the past. However, I've come to accept the fact that it does absolutely no good. None whatsoever.

We're in the hunt despite 15+ significant injuries when a month or two ago, we were hypothesizing that the season was over and what prospects we could get in exchange for Werth to contend with next season.

Relax. Enjoy the game tonight.

Complaining is fine. Statements like "season = over" are just stupid and reactionary.

"Statements like "season = over" are just stupid and reactionary."

Yes, but expected and oh, so hilarious.

Not hitting R.A. Dickey: Not a problem.
Only having one really good relief pitcher: Problem

The only valid complaint, in my opinion, is that we were SO CLOSE to being sellers at the trade deadline. This team could have been really good next year!

We'll win the next two, and I think Howard and Utley are worth 2 more wins at least down the stretch here, but if you look at the Braves schedule, you can't help but think the Wild Card is our best chance at the playoffs. They've played .727 ball at home almost 75% through the season, and their road series from here are against the following teams: Chi, Col, Fla, Pitt, NYM, Phillies, Was. This puts the Phils in a position where they have to at least win 4 of their final 6 against Atlanta to win the division, barring a major collapse by the Braves.

Season = over

Marley: If we had been sellers, we obviously wouldn't have gotten Oswalt. And getting Oswalt actually does more to improve us for next year than any prospect we would have gotten by trading away Werth.

Is Chris in Vermont serious that he'd be more worried if he's a Braves fan? Come on, guys, you've been selling the Braves short all year. Here are some reasons why I would NOT be worried if I were a Braves fan...
1) They're 3 games up and we are 3 games back. I'm thinking we should worry about that a little bit more than they should.

2) Their bullpen >> our bullpen.

3) Their starting pitching > our starting pitching (they have the depth and Hudson has proven to be an ace a year after surgery - he's not Halladay but with the depth in their rotation they don't need him to be).

4) Our hitting is > than their hitting, but this game is about pitching, boys. And when you have the better rotation and the better bullpen, that should make the second place team that is 3 games out worried.

This race is going down to the wire, I agree. The Phillies need to beat the Braves head-to-head if they want a shot at the division. BP is a concern, too. How great a concern? I'm not sure, esp. since I've been away from it for a few weeks. (Thanks to BL for helping me stay informed while missing games.)

I would like to see them find a way to win when getting a terrific performance from their starter (poor Cole), but games like yesterday happen sometimes. I do have the sense that every win is precious in a sense, making those great starts more important to win, because the Braves are not dropping out of this race. And apparently, neither are the Giants.

I'm off to Coors Field tonight. My brother wanted to go to a game. Funny thing is, he loves baseball but has not followed it in years, so he thought it was interleague play when he saw the Rockies were playing the Brewers! He was incredulous that they'd switched leagues. So yes, he's out of the loop just a bit. But who am I to say no to a ballgame? I'm wearing my Phillies hat. :)

Dukes: Here's why I would be worried, if I were a Braves fan:

The Phils are only 3 games back and are about to get their two best players back.

Really? Time to bring back an oldy but goody...

Halladay > Hudson
Hamels > Hanson
Oswalt >>> Lowe
Blanton < Kawakami
Kendrick = Jurjens

When healthy: PHI lineup > ATL lineup
Come Sept. 1st: PHI lineup >> ATL lineup

PHI BP < ATL BP

Seriously, the Phils have been an injury-riddled mess this season, and they're only 3 games out. The Braves haven't been able to separate from the Phils at all, and we're headed into the Phils' favorite time of year and finally getting healthy.

Hell yeah I'd be much more worried as a Braves fan.

Uh not only is kawakami worse than Blanton, he's not in their rotation. But yeah, their rotation is not better than the Phils, and their offense of late is weak.

Dukes: How can you argue the Braves rotation > Phils rotation?

" Their starting pitching > our starting pitching"

Are you serious?

I don't even know a Braves fan that would make that claim. Their best starter would find himself at either #3 or #4 in the Phillies rotation.

Sophist:

So I guess it's: Blanton < Medlen then?

And I would argue that despite the W-L record, Kawakami has actually pitched better than Blanton this season. Kawakami has a 1.444 WHIP, an 85 ERA+, and 6.6 K/9 this season. Blanton is sporting a 1.475 WHIP, 73 ERA+, and 6.0 K/9.

Fat Joe's been pretty terrible. And, yes, I know some of the peripherals indicate he should be putting up better numbers, but he's still been a real problem.

Why would the Braves be worried? They don't lose at home and get to play teams like the Cubs, Pirates, Mets, and Nats on the road. Their only remotely tough road series' to go are the Rockies, Marlins, and Phils.

Medlen is on the DL. He's done.

People get real.

Hudson is not a 3 or 4 in the Phils rotation.

His ERA is 2.15 or so, he's been better than Halladay to this point, excluding the extra innings.

He very well coould be a #1 in our rotation and he is no doubt better than Cole and the other Roy...

"Hudson is not a 3 or 4 in the Phils rotation.

His ERA is 2.15 or so, he's been better than Halladay to this point, excluding the extra innings.

He very well coould be a #1 in our rotation and he is no doubt better than Cole and the other Roy..."

Exactly Hudson has been a stud.

"Get Real"

Hanson is the Braves best pitcher this year, not Hudson. Hudson has only been better than Halladay to this point if you ignore all context (and the extra IP for some bizarre reason).

Halladay - 2.85
Hamels - 3.28
Oswalt - ~3.50
Hudson - 3.90 SIERA
Hanson - 3.53

The Braves are simply not as good as some would have you believe. That doesn't mean they can't find a way to win 91-93 games this year, but that team is not scary.

They've been a 4ish R/G offense for most of the season, and they lost their second best starter a few weeks ago (replacing him with a young, high-ceiling but probably not ready AAA guy). Hudson has pitched well but over his head.

Those are their SIERAs. Hudson has pitched over his head. Only people who haven't learned the components of ERA would tell you otherwise. Those people - some above - are acting on incomplete information and like many ignoramuses before them will defend their arguments with common-sense appeals to tradition (c'mon, it's ERA!).

Going back to when Utley was hurt, I stated he would be back Far sooner than what was projected.

I would now like to point out, that i was, in fact, correct about something...

it only took me 3 or 4 yrs.

Sophist, last time I checked SIERA was not a considering factor in the CY Young Award, you know the award for best pitcher of the year. I'm pretty sure ERA is a consideration... if not the main consideration.

Hudson has a 3.90 FIP, 4.03 xFIP. He's got a mediocre 4.86 K/9 and 1.65 K/BB ratio. His BABIP is an unsustainable .231.

Halladay has a 2.71 FIP, 2.85 xFIP, and a very reasonable .305 BABIP. He's got an excellent 8.17 K/9 and 7.64 K/BB ratio.

Only someone who has no idea of pitching context would argue that Hudson's been better than Halladay. Or Hamels and Oswalt, for that matter. Hudson would be the Phils' #4 starter.

Hudson and the Braves win low scoring games 1-0, etc. The Phils do not. The Braves bullpen is a huge advantage.

Hudson's K/9 rate is worse than Donut Eater Joe's, and almost as bad as KK's. He's got a BABIP that's a full .100 less than his last year and a career high LOB%. He's as much as an illusion as Happ was, except we've got 10 years of statistics that say he's not this good.

His performance to date has been lucky. That's as valuable to the Braves as him being good...but he's probably not going to continue it going forward.

...and so what if he's pitching way over his head.

If he does it for the entire year, he was that good for the entire year.

There is no indication that he's going to fall apart in the last month and a half.

He's better even if he's been "lucky"

Definition of lucky - Where preparation meets opportunity.

Killbrain - explain why that should have any bearing on the cutter discussion. Instead of appealing to tradition you've appealed to supposed authority- the geniuses who vote. Fallacious thinking.

Hudson has pitched well this year but worse than all 3 top Phils pitchers. I've made my case. You aren't worth any more effort.

"[L]ast time I checked SIERA was not a considering factor in the CY Young Award, you know the award for best pitcher of the year. I'm pretty sure ERA is a consideration... if not the main consideration."'

Wow...that conversation is dead. May as well try to talk to a brick wall...

Killbrain - pitching over one's head is indication for future troubles. It's called regression. Given enough innings his ERA will adjust unless something underlying the components of ERA under his control changes.

Wow, all you guys arguing about the Phils having a better rotation than the Braves don't even know who is in their rotation! I'm talking depth and therefore a simple comparison between Hudson and Halladay doesn't work. 1-5 they have more depth. In other words, we have a great chance to win 3 out of 5 times, but they have a good chance to win 5 out of 5 times. And whoever said that Jurrjens is equal to Kendrick is on something. The guy was hurt in the beginning of the year, is back, and knows how to pitch.

Sophist...where it all begins and ends...

Talk to me in October guy and we'll see who ends up where in the CY voting...oh wait that's meaningless too...

It's impossible to argue w/ someone who operates outside the bounds of logical debate. As I've always figured, you don't have a shred of common sense.

The only case you've made is that you spend way too much time in fantasy land with numbers.

Is it fun in there with the pixies and unicorns?

Thanks, I'm finished with you now.

This may be the world's smallest sample size, but I have a friend who is a Braves fan (Yea, I know) and a season ticket holder. We spoke when the Phils were 6 games out and he was very worried about the Phils, knowing that when all the regulars are back in the lineup they would catch the Braves.
The Braves are good but not scary.

Yeah, not worth the effort. You're ignorant and proud of it.

Jurrjens is better than Kendrick but he's their third best starter. Their fifth is a guy just up from AAA.

Also pretty funny someone making appeals to authority (the authority of the CY voters at that) tells someone they don't argue logically.

Citi Field = The 0-Zone Layer.

Citi (down anywhere because there are plenty of empty seats) Field.

Playoff teams win games like tonight. Your ace against a guy just called up from AAA. Get 'er done.

Dukes is right that Phillies fans should be more worried than Braves fans. But he should have rested his case after his first 2 points. Actually, he could have just rested it after his first point, which is, by far, the most important one.

Dukes. You need to dig a bit deeper. If we have a, say, 50% greater chance of winning with pitchers 1-3, and they have a 50% greater chance of winning with pitchers 4-5, then we come out ahead. Just saying that their rotation is better at the deep end (a very arguable statement) doesn't really prove anything.

And the question of "who should be more worried" is inane to start with. There isn't some mathematical calculation of who should or shouldn't be worried.

My advise to any Phillies fans that are worried is to (1) take a look at the previous couple of years, (2) take a look at who is coming off of the DL in a very short time, (3), take a look at the top of our rotation, and (4) go out and get some adult diapers so you don't keep wetting your bed.

Technically Phlipper, it would depend on the dropoff between talent in pitchers 1 through 3 and 4 through 5. I'm saying that our 1 through through is slightly better while their 4 and 5 is significantly better.

And people can disagree with me, I don't care. You can look it up from comments I made in spring training though that I said the Braves were going to be our biggest competition this year and I thought they had a real good chance to win the division. My point is only that so many people on here have sold them short all year and they are a very good team.

I just learned two things watching the SF-SD game on Fox.
1. The Padres are the best team in the NL.
2. RBI guys knock in a lot of runs.

I dont even want a win at this point...I'd just like to see them score a damn run...one run, anything at all. Ridiculous.

Whoever wrote that Jurrjens = Kendrick is on crack.

Also, Sophist, Hudson has outperformed his components, for sure, but I also think that a lot of the component ERA formulas (SIERA, xFIP, etc) may have a tendency to systemically underrate extreme GB pitchers. Hudson, for example, has outperformed his xFIP almost every single year of his career. I don't know about SIERA.

Now, obviously, he can't sustain an 84% strand rate. But I think saying he's somewhere around a 3.50 ERA pitcher is about right (career ERA 3.39, career xFIP of 3.81). That's nothing to sneeze at--not exactly like he's a liability going forward. He's a good pitcher.

The only thing worse than the Phils having another lackluster offensive night at Citi Field is if they go and drop a ridiculous amount of runs when they don't have to because Halladay is dealing. It will just make the last four games at NY that much harder to bear.

Which is exactly why I'm calling for a 13-1 win.

There is no such thing as scoring too many runs, but there is such a thing as scoring too few.

Who would you rather have on your team, the more effective pitcher, or the one voted CYA by the same panel that gave a GG to Abreu?

On this date in 1971, Bob Gibson's no-hitter was saved by a leaping stab by 3B Joe Torre. I guess height didn't matter in those days.

A better 3B would have made a shoestring catch...

The best 3B would be so tall as to intimidate the batter into weakly striking out.

A tall 3B that was more like Jose Reyes would have been hit in the face by that drive because he just wasn't prepared for that play.

CAN'T THEY just be patient at the plate/?

Here we go again.

"Misch Mashes Phillies"

they do not know this pitcher from the man in the moon , but both Polly and Rollins are swinging after 2 pitches.

Misch made 9 pitches total the first inning

Ya think they may have learned something from last nite's experience - going up hacking does squat.

Sliding into 1B is never the correct move.

Wish he would have shattered his shoulder ala Kenny Lofton.

NEPP: He's fragile. He didn't want to collide with Doc.

WHAT WAS SWEENEY SWINGIN' AT?

Wtf WERTH - 1ST PITCH?

I'm pretty convinced the Phillies will give the Mets their first no hitter in 2010. Either tonight, tomorrow, or the final three games at Citi Field.

38...

Is Citi field in the Phillies' head?

Why cant we hit in this park? This is past the stage of pathetic.

GG: J-Roll, let's talk. We're lookin' at a pitcher we haven't seen in a while. What say you maybe take some pitches?

JR: Yeah I'll take 'em. Take 'em deep. You got it, coach!

GG: No, I don't think you're getting it. What I'm suggesting is maybe be a little more patient up there at the dish, it could...

JR: Ohh, okay. Patience! Like, I should wait until the first pitch is all the way to me before I swing!

GG: Look, all I'm saying is that we need to see more pitches. Get this guys pitch count up early.

JR: I totally agree. I think we're on the same page... but why are you telling me that? The best way for us see more pitches if we bat around in every inning! So tell the other guys to get more hits!

GG: ...

GG: Go get 'em, J-Roll!!

i don't get it - Victorino swung at the for the 3rd out nearly same pitch he just taken for a ball

great strike out call, blue

If we're never going to score in NY, it won't matter whether Tim Hudson can sustain his ERA (0.49 over past 5 games, btw).

LOL Ron Darling on that ump called third strike to Davis:

"That looked like Elaine dancing on Seinfeld."

Chooch will hit a HR here and we'll win 1-0.


Write it down.

I forgot to ask last nite, did Vic bat LH or RH. I think he hit RH against Wakefield. Some theory on samehandedness vs. knuckleballer, plus Vic hits better RH.

****

LOL Ron Darling on that ump called third strike to Davis:

"That looked like Elaine dancing on Seinfeld."
****

Keith Hernandez: I'm Keith Hernandez

Halladay=Cyborg

A run at Shiti?! Holy Hallelujah!

About damn time...good work.

Hooray for the Phils. Shiti field hoodoo = over

Wait ... what happens now? What base comes after home? I forgot how this works... does Halladay have to stand there when the next batter is up??

Ibanez is now 0 for his last 10 & sinking fast. We might have been too quick to pronounce him not washed up.

I take the blame for Ibanez. I picked him up and started him this week on my FBB team.

I'll be benching/cutting him for next week though so he'll heat back up.

Actually a nice grab there by Halladay...that's harder than he made it look.

NEPP: Can you bench Blanton, Romero, and Vic too?

A lineup with 5 rookies in a row is not likely to sustain many innings against Doc.

bap, I dont actually have any of them on my team.

I do have Werth and Doc though...FWIW.

Tbag: "Halladay has retired the first nine batters ... he is perfect through three."

It just pisses me off that he does that. More than just a few times too. He isn't thinking, he isn't trying. YOU DON'T SAY THE WORDS. I hate this guy. Time for the radio ... AGAIN.

Mets broadcast is much better than TMac.

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