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Thursday, August 26, 2010

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Oh, Jayson, that post said it all.

Wild Card...............anyone?

Seriously, it's as if the other players have more intensity when howard and utley are out.

What did Nixon say?

You can only appreciate the mountain top if you've been in a deep valley or two?

Quite the philosopher was he.

If we're still using the script from the last three seasons, this is the part where these guys go out west, have a nice road trip and make us hate to admit we ever doubted them. I sure love that old script. I hope somebody can scrounge up a copy.

Associated Ideograph:


The corn is a nice touch, Dave.

P U

What did we expect. Our best pitcher, Halladay, couldn't stop this losing streak. Did we really expect fluff tosser Kendrick to stop this streak? I didn't. Blah! It's tough to be in hot Houston right now. The sad thing is most of the people in Houston could care less about the Astros (or anything else for that matter.)

You know, if we can just hang in there 'til Gload gets back...

Would everyone agree that they need (not mathematically but spiritually) to win one or two from the Padres? They are turning out to be one badass team. I just hope they don't kill us wearing their camos.

Another camo uni worry: Werth or Ben Frank will step off or take a lead and BAMMO..a fielder steps out of nowhere and tags them out.

Fred,

Kendrick would have had to throw a shutout to win the game.

Just like he would have had to against Strasburg.

If you can't score, you can't win.

yeah, Kendrick was no great shakes but, you can't win if you can't score. 4 runs allowed by your 5th man is pretty much par for the course.

The last 4 days are dedicated to all those who downplay wins against bad teams.

Bobby D., you are right on. All wins count the same number, one. All losses are also equal to zero wins.

but when your team plays down to the level of their opponent, they count as 1 loss each, but I would guess each one feels like the weight of the world on your shoulders

waxing philosphical

0-5. That is that stat that matters today. Now just 6-44 with RISP during this 7-game skid.

Highlight (more like lowlight) was having runners with 2nd and 3rd in the 5th with nobody out after Ibanez's double and not being able to score a single run down 4-0. Base hit there makes it 4-2 and changes then game.

You know those computer-model studies that say lineup construction doesn't matter? Well, I'd sure like to get my hands on a copy of that software & plug in a starting lineup with Werth in the leadoff spot & Rollins batting 8th. Something tells me it might lead to a breathtaking new discovery that makes the entire sabermetric world rethink their positions on lineup construction. Or maybe it wouldn't. But it would sure be fun to try, just for sh*ts and giggles.

Didn't Werth leadoff innings in most of his ABs today?

Werth led off two innings and batted 2d twice, both times with the bases empty. Never saw a baserunner in front of him. Phils were 0 for 4 with RISP by my count, today.

Don't think the lineup order matters much when almost nobody is hitting.

My son gave up on this team a couple weeks ago. I tried to convince him that it was too early to write them off. Now, all I see is a near-dead team, from top to bottom and a manager who can no longer press the right buttons. They are just dreadful; I can't even stomach the announcers and their rationalizations. I know they're still technically in the hunt for WC, even the division, but I just don't see this outfit coming through. I'll always be a Phillies fan, but I suspect they are on a downward spiral for now.

For the first time in over 2 months I was able to listen to the game while fishing. While it was not one of my better days, I caught more fish than the Phigtins' scored runs.

When are the team's leaders gonna call a closed-door scream fest? Or at least an honest-to-god "look at your sorry asses in the mirror" meeting.

I had this same feeling in my stomach in 1964 ( a little later in the season). Just hope the Phillies can get home with a 5-2 record which if they hitting ( using the term loosely) will not eliminate them. Meanwhile, the Braves will be playing at home. Needless to say we really lost whatever advantage (minimal) when the Braves played on the road. Now the Giants and Cardinals and maybe even the Rockies are back in the WC race. I guess that is what makes baseball so much fun!

Remember way, way back when. I believe about, hmm, let's see, about a month or so ago? They were 6.5 games back and the season was over then? This is another slump, an ugly one to be sure, but still just a slump. They will hit again. I just hope it's sooner than later.

This week confirms what we knew,Milt wasn't the problem and GG isn't the cure.Would a good hitting coach make a difference?
It may be time for the Brown era to begin. The guy is never going to be a PH. He needs to see big league pitching every day. Start Brown and play either Vic/Werth.
Pitching,it doesn't matter when you don't score. Would rather see Worley than Roberson get the Dh start.

Bless you, Old Phan.

This series sucked, especially because we had excellent Blanton and Cole and good enough Roy. Hitting sucked, bad timing for a team hitting slump.

I called the bottom a few weeks ago -- alas, not here but I did to friends. The Phils retested the lows a little bit with this series, but I am calling a double-bottom. They will pick it up.

It is much too early to write off a team that is only a half game out of the wild card, but Utley and Howard needed to work off the rust for a bit longer in Lehigh Valley. They're not helping anyone by rushing back, benching the overperforming replacements and working off the rust at the expense of the team.

Will, I would have to agree. There seems to be some code of honor in "playing hurt", but I don't agree with it. Sometimes you are actually costing your team rather than helping. The subs were holding their own just fine and you want your best guys healthy. I know many here said 70% Utley > 100% Valdez, but I'm not convinced.

I was mercifully engaged in other pursuits during this game, but honestly could use a day off from this new incarnation of the league champions.

Valdez when Utley was out: .228/.290/.272

Yes, Utley is better than Valdez right now. Outside of Utley's first game, he's been on base in 16 of his 36 PA and has 8 hits.

"Don't think the lineup order matters much when almost nobody is hitting."

Even if no one else is hitting, a good leadoff hitter increases your chance of scoring cheap runs (i.e., batter doubles, advances to 3rd on a ground out, scores on a fly ball). We lost 2 games in this series by 1 run, and another because we failed to push a single run home in the 10th through 16th innings. A couple of cheap runs in this series and it's a 2-2 split, and we're a game out of 1st place.

Yeah, the first 3 games were decided by 4 runs all together.

Rollins was 2-5 in the first game, though, so I wouldn't put each close loss on him. Howard and Vic's shenanigans with RISP loom much larger.

In other news St Louis is down 8-6 to the Nats in the 8th and the Padres are losing to the DBacks 11-5.

If the Nats hold on this will be the Cards third loss in a row and their 8th in their last 11 games. There are no slam dunks.

How did everyone else do with RISP other than Vic and Ryno?

Hey, at least nobody got picked off in horrible baserunning decisions today, right?

Another bright side: He Who Must Not Be Named is getting roughed up by Minnesota right now...he's been decidedly human since he pulled on a Rangers uniform.

Guess Nate Robertson is truly done: Another AAA opportunity (his 3rd team now) and he's getting beat up in Lehigh as well: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO, 7.71 ERA

No regular in the lineup has hitter better than .250 the past week and they only have 4 HRs. Sometimes everyone just goes through a dead spell. It doesn't happen often but it happens.

Pitching and defense have been pretty damn solid this month and that is what wins you ball games in the end. Especially in the NL.

Problem is that the Braves are 1st in runs this month and 1st in ERA. Going to be very difficult to catch them especially with a better pitching staff and rotation.

Good news for the Phils is that there is still this thing called the WC and the teams the Phils are contending with (Cards, Giants, Rockies) all have their serious flaws too. Especially don't get how the Cards are talked about in such revered terms.

If anything they remind me alot of the 07-08 Mets, a team that is very top-heavy with very marginal talent around. 'Value Village' types like T. Miller and MacDougal?! are pitching key innings in their bullpen and besides Pujols and Holliday there offense doesn't bring much to the table.

My bet is the Phils look better on this road trip including taking 2 out of 3 against the Padres.

Is it too soon to start soliciting suggestions for a new fifth starter next season? I'd take a 48 year-old Moyer over Kendrick any day of the week, for one. At least he knows what the hell he's doing out there.

Well said MG. It might be a tough pill for Phillies fans to swallow, but the Wild Card is still a playoff spot.

Besides, we already have home field for the WS locked up ;-)

Yeah, looking at the box scores, I doubt a swap of leadoff hitters would have made any difference this series. But Cholly should still make the change. My views on this subject pre-dated this particular series.

The failures of Howard & Vic w/ RISP certainly loom large, but let's not gloss over the fact that J-Roll hit .150 (3-20, 2 Singles & 1 HR) in the Astros series, w/ 1 whole BB. As I pointed out in the previous thread, he's hitting .225 in 56 games since last coming off of the DL. Rollins is easily the most pitiful hitter not named Wilson Valdez to play a meaningful amount of games for the Phillies this season, & certainly the worst of the "regular" starting 8 position players. So why is the least productive hitter on the team at the top of the lineup? It would have been nuts to bat Valdez there, & it's nuts to continue batting J-Roll there.

I'll ask this one again. How did everyone else do with RISP other than Vic and Ryno?

RSB - KK has struggled this month (5 GS, 2-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) but when he pitches on the road he has been pretty good this year including this past month:

Aug 4 @ FL - 6 IP, 2 ER (W)
Aug 15 @ NY - 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER (W)

Just have to hope he pitches more on the road and that they might be able to skip 1-2 of his starts with some off days later in Sept.

Gtown Dave - Agreed. There aren't alot of options right now because no is hitting but I wouldn't mind seeing some flexibility either.

The lineups that George S suggested the other day would be a decent place to start.

Old Phan, no one did well. But Howard and Vic had the biggest RISP AB as the most. Guys with more than 1 AB

Polanco: 1-2
Utley: 1-3
Howard: 0-3
Vic: 1-5
Ruiz: 0-2
Ibanez: 0-2 (one being the PH)

MG: The fact that no one is hitting right now is exactly why I think now is a great time to shake up the order some. If doing it the "usual" way is producing 2 runs or less per game, what can it hurt to try something different?

GTown, hasn't there been a different lineup practically every day? I have no problem with it, but it isn't like it hasn't been happening. I will count nothing out, but I would be beyond surprised if UC has Werth leadoff.

MG: I know there's no other option than Kendrick this year. I just hope they don't even consider him as an option for next year, except as depth at AAA.

RSB: We have over 140 million committed already for next year.

Therefore, Kyle Kendrick will be the 5th starter. I dislike it as much as the next guy, but that's how it is. Our depth is gone through trades and payroll constraints.

KK has performed quite well for a 5th starter. Obviously it would be nice to have a better option at #5, but (without looking it up) I'd say that's he's been about average as far as a comparison with other #5 starters throughout the NL.

These are the golden years of Phillies baseball...

These are the golden years of Phillies baseball...

These are the golden years of Phillies baseball...

(repeat until they score at least runs...)

I don't know why anyone complains about Kendrick as our number 5. I'll take <5.00 ERA out of the 5th starter every year. Of course Blanton has sucked but he has turned it around.

But really, it's the hitting.

It may be to little to late, especially after the pitching they are going to see this weekend, but they HAVE to take Jimmy Rollins out of the leadoff spot. I would go for Werth, he hasn't hit for power, he is the worst player in baseball with RISP, but he has a 300 average, takes alot of pitches, and is a doubles machine this year......of course they never will Jimmy will cry like a baby like everyother time they have tried to bump him down.....he has never been a leadoff hitter and never will be......not the only solution, and might be to little to late, but at least you would be trying something....

Did someone really say on here they would rather have a 48 year old moyer than kendrick? wow the best thing that happened to this team was when his arm finally gave out......they would be done if he was still out there, sure kyle has had his bad starts, but he also had a real good stretch there that no way moyer could have matched.

I posted this before, but I'll post it again. Last year Ryan Howard had 141 RBI. Jayson Werth had 99 RBI. Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley both had 93 RBI. For the season, that's a total of 426 RBI.

This year, they're 162 game RBI averages for the year:

Utley: 79
Howard: 122
Werth: 82
Ibanez: 85

That means that they are on pace to drive in 58 fewer runs combined over a 162 game season. (This takes into account time spent on the DL; these are projections done based on the games they played). The problem with the offense this year is that the above 4, the prominent RBI guys last year, are just not driving them in this year. Ibanez is driving in runs at 91% the rate he was last year, Howard is driving in runs at 86.5% the rate he did last year, Utley is at 85% and Werth is 82.8%.

If you lose that kind of RBI production out of the middle of your lineup, it's going to suffer. Complain about Rollins all you like (and he sure deserves some criticism), but simply swapping him and Werth isn't going to put 58 RBI back into the lineup, and 58 extra RBIs over a season would probably lead to about somewhere between 5-10 extra wins, which would have us in the driver's seat for the division right now.

more on the batting orders awesome... NO ONE is hitting. juggling the lineup any further is not going to change a thing... not ONE thing. They just have to get out of their slumps...

This year the Phillies have used 83 different batting orders. And there are

Last year: 68
2008: 77
2007: 87

Last year the Phillies used the standard set:
29 times (with Werth batting 5th)
20 times (with Ibanez flipped to 5th)
Another 17 times the standard set with the back up catcher.

That line up stability (regardless of what the Optimum make up was) scored a TON of runs. Won alot of games. And on occasion went through a slump.

This season the most common line up was used just 13 times...

Vic,Polly, Utz, Ryno, JW, Raul, Castro!!, Ruiz...

The second most common lineup?
Vic,Polly, Utz, Ryno, JW, Raul, Ruiz, Valdez...

Certainly, there in another slump. Another one coinciding altogether (with Utley and Howard struggling to return to form from a DL stint).

Its stunning. Its awful. But no change in the lineup order is going to change that. They just have to play through it. And the best way would be to play the standard set through the end of the season.

No "computer model" of the Optimum Lineup is going to fix the Phillies problems. And those models are so flawed that I won't begin to start arguing the point.

You can shuffle the deck all you want but its not going to change the fact that they are all struggling to hit at the same time.

@Fatalotti -- what's their home run % and RBI generated by HR?

I bet you there is a direct correlation with a drop in HR and RBI totals.

I agree that putting Werth up there isn't going to change everything and there is plenty of blame to go around, BUT Jimmy has never been a leadoff hitter, he should be a 6 hole hitter....His numbers are on a steady decline since his 07 MVP. His defense is to important on the team not to have him in there at all, but he is a horrible leadoff man, and Shane isn't an option I don't think there is a guy on this team that has more poor plate apperances than him, he pops up more than any player I have ever seen I think.

I also agree that when 6 of the 8 regulars are having down years when healthy that this team is not going to be the team that we expect them to be, that's why I think they have an incredible uphill climb here, but J-Roll is a great defensive player with great speed, but he is an average at best hitter since the 07 season.....IMO he should be hitting 6 and Shayne should be hitting 7, will it change anything, of course not unless Piece carries this team like he has in the past, that's there only chance, but for this year and the future Jimmy is not a leadoff hitter, never should have been.

The job of a leadoff hitter is to take alot of pitches, make the pitcher work......I will admit I am not a sabermetrics fan, so I don't buy into alot of it.......but Werth does all those things, and no one else on this team does, that's why he should be the leadoff hitter, it maybe 2 or 3 times out of 10 games could make a difference, and this team needs that right now......It's worth a shot, they have nothing else to lose right now.

Jim, your Moyer/Kendrick post is entirely a product of your imagination.

I present Kendrick's 2010 gamelog
and
Moyer's 2010 gamelog.

Perhaps reviewing them will allow you to familiarize yourself with the actual real-life 2010 Philadelphia Phillies.

Kendrick's been very good as a 5th starter this year. Well above league average. This chart will help you to familiarize yourself with Major League Baseball.

Moyer's last 2 starts before getting hurt 13 runs......enough said.........prior to today in 6 of Kendricks last 8 starts 2 runs or less......please tell me who the better pitcher at this time is

Ridiculous to just say, well, if the guy has a sub-5 ERA, we can't possibly do any better than that...I sure hope Amaro doesn't think along those lines. You have four guys you can plug into next year's rotation right now, which is great - most teams couldn't come close to saying that. Doesn't mean you automatically accept a thoroughly unreliable and sub-mediocre fifth component to the rotation, and say we can live with it. You damn well try to come up with something else, budget constraints or not. Sign 20 Nate Robertsons and see who sticks in Clearwater, Kendrick included. Even if whoever else they might plug in doesn't do any better, you give it a shot and say we're not settling for this type of performance, for having to throw a guy out there who combines below-average stuff AND command, who hasn't demonstrated an iota of consistency for three seasons running. This is a guy they sent to the minors without a moment's notice a handful of weeks back. They have less confidence in him than Happ, and rightly so. I'd be surprised and disappointed if he's in their short or long term plans at this point.

I should clarify myself here a bit. Moyer should have never been resigned after the 08 season, he has been hurting this team except for that hot stretch he had this year in late may and june. My problem is with Amaro, they should have had a better option at the back of the rotation than either Kendrick or Moyer. Brett Myers is popular to say at this point in time, and I honestly don't remember what I thought back at the time about bringing him back, but I know that bringing Moyer back for 2 years was a huge mistake and they have been hamstrung by alot of bad contracts, but his is at the top.

This isnt an opinion, but more of a question......and great post RSB......but does it seem like they have less patience with Kyle than they do other pitchers on this staff......and I am by no means a Kendrick fan, I just think he is a slight upgrade over Moyer.

@Marley......with all due respect, what are you trying to show me with those game logs? It showed me that they are both below average pitchers, and Kendrick is a slight upgrade over Moyer especially after Moyers last two starts, and I think that was the point I made.

Hamm, I looked at the HR rates this year compared to last, but I don't feel like doing the leg work (nor do I know where I would be able to find such data) to extrapolate the % of RBI driven in by each player via the HR. Anyway, this year, the homeruns per 162 game averages are:

Ryan Howard: 35 (last year, 45) Rate: 78%
Jayson Werth: 23 (last year, 36) Rate: 64%
Raul Ibanez: 17 (last year, 34) Rate: 50%
Chase Utley: 23 (last year, 32) Rate: 72%

I was curious, so I looked at how the Phillies produced through the first 52 games of the 2009 season. I felt that June 4th was a good cut off point, because after that, the team went through it's annual "June Swoon". Anyhow, up until that point, Jimmy Rollins, the leadoff hitter in the vast majority of games, had the following line:

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS: .224/.264/.329/.593

He had 12 walks in the 51 games of the team's first 52. He was 10-14 in SB attempts. Everyone remembers how bad Jimmy was to start last year, resulting his 4 game benching before the team went on a tear in July.

Up until June 4, the Phillies' offense was churning out...are you ready for this...5.58 runs/per game. The offense was doing fine with Jimmy as the primary leadoff hitter. This does not excuse Jimmy's failings, but it shows that as long as Ryan, Jayson, Chase and Raul were driving in runs, this team was still very deadly.

The 2009 Phillies were 32-20 during this stretch. Jimmy needs to be a better lead off guy, no doubt, but this offense will only go as far as the RBI guys take it, and right now, they're not taking it anywhere.

Jim, I don't agree. By and large, Moyer went deeper into games this year, and he *still* has more wins than KK - largely because his high ERA was amassed in a couple of bad games. He demonstrated far more consistency than Kendrick.

I have little patience for Kendrick because he has so little potential and shows no signs of really getting his act together and improving on what he *can* improve - namely things like mound presence, command, and pitching intelligence. You want to think he's turned a corner when he goes 7 innings and gives up a run or two, but it's a mirage - next time out, he's pitching scared, running deep counts, burying the team early. Four years into his career, it's plain he's a very marginal talent and odds are he isn't going to emerge as something significantly better than what we've already seen.

@RSB......while I do agree with you on everything that you said about Kendrick, he is a very frustrating pitcher, he really should be better than what he is, and I also think that if he hasnt gotten it by now, but you have to agree that Moyer never should have been given an extension after 08, he also is a marginal pitcher at best, this is where Amaro dropped the ball, neither one of these guys should be taking the ball for a team that is supposed to be going back to another World Series.....We will just have to agree to disagree that I think Kendrick is slightly better than Moyer, but that is like saying who is a better utility guy Eric Bruntlett or Juan Castro.......Amaro is the one I have the issue with.

@Fatlotti.......despite the success that the team has had in the past with Jimmy at leadoff, don't you think that this would be a more productive and more balanced offense if they had a prototypical leadoff hitter and let Jimmy swing for the fences in the 6 hole? but the area I am with you on is that guys like Ryan, Chase, Raul, and Jayson need to pick up there weight much more if this team is going to have a chance.....don't forget about Shayne, he hit 290 last year and was an igniter on this team, and this year all he does is pop up, because for someone reason he also thinks he is Ryan Howard now and is swinging for the fences.

the best thing that happened to this team was when [Moyer's] arm finally gave out......they would be done if he was still out there, sure kyle has had his bad starts, but he also had a real good stretch there that no way moyer could have matched

Jim, my only point with the gamelogs is that your statement (above) about Moyer vs. Kendrick is demonstrably false. Personally I think they've both performed admirably this year. You disagree. So it goes.

@Marley after Moyer gave up 6 and 7 in two consecutive starts to me he was done, but I am one like I said that should have never been given an extension......I think they both gave good performances at times, which suprised me, but overall neither should be in the back of a rotation for a team that is trying to do something that no NL team has done since the Cards in the 40's......same thing with having a rule 5 guy take up a roster spot, but once again my issue is with RAJ

On the Lead-Off spot: Jimmy was an experiment here a long time ago and it should have ended by now. (Really, how do two different managers unquestioningly let the starting 9s worst OBP guy hit lead-off for 10 years????) I had hopes Vic would step in and deliver, but he too is not a real lead-off hitter. (though, until this year I though he at least had shown some signs of being better than Jimmy.) I don't think Cholly has any choice, he has to try either Werth or Utley there, at least until Jimmy starts hitting again.

On KK vs Moyer: They're practically the same. Either of them, you get shelled one night, then a decent start the next. I think KK gives a better chance to have good starts back to back, but Moyer is a changeup in your rotation making the rest look faster.

On Howard and Utley back & not 100%: Well, you need them to be hitting come postseason. (forgive me for being optimistic) And you can only do that by giving them AB now and in Sept. We will live and die by their bats. (no pressure, guys) There is no other move.

and RSB is right everytime you think Kyle may have turned the corner he comes out with two starts like his last two, but I will not blame him for the loss today.

@Shane.......great point....he should have been a 6 hole hitter a long time ago....you need a guy with a high obp there, ask boston fans that his plagued them since Damon left

Werth is my choice, he walks alot and is a doubles machine this year, but hasnt hit for power and cant hit with RISP, I think right now that is the perfect spot for him, in turn Jimmy has been good with RISP for the most part, hitting him 6 makes sense, will it change anything? who knows, but it's worth a shot.

Utley isn't the problem, he is playing much better than Exxon has, but with Howard we have to hope for him to get his timing back soon, because he is going to have to carry this team like he did in 08 in September

Shayne wouldn't cut it as a leadoff guy to many poor ab's.....you can't have that out of a leadoff hitter, he needs to set the tone for the entire lineup.

Jim, I agree. Any team that has a better leadoff guy will always do better. But, this team survived last year, by and large, because the RBI guys were driving LOTS of runs. Taking one of those RBI guys out and putting him the leadoff position, where there is no guarantee he keeps hitting like he has been, and replacing him with a guy who has never been a long term 5 hole hitter, will probably produce marginal effects, if any.

Unfortunately, I just think this team is without a prototypical leadoff guy in general. Jayson Werth, for as high as his OBP is, just doesn't steal that many bags. He's a great base stealer, but he's been reticent this year to take off. Say what you will about Jimmy, but once he got his legs back following his injuries, he's been stealing a lot lately. Polanco's not a good leadoff hitter, Vic has proven that he's not suited for that role. J-Roll has been walking at a higher percentage lately, and he is a guy that distracts pitchers once he gets on. Jayson Werth has gap to gap power and his high SLG guy. Werth needs to be in the middle of the lineup, because this is an offense built to drive in runs in bunches, and they just haven't been doing that.

Sometimes, there is no magic bullet. Sometimes, the players you have must just perform better. This is one of those situations.

Werth has a .390 obp......where Jimmy has a .333 OBP I'm not going to compare walks since Jimmy missed so much time, but I would much rather have a 390 guy that takes alot of pitches at the top of my order versus a 333 guy.....It could set the tone for a game, and I think we all know they have not been coming out of the gates strong lately.

I'm of the mind that Moyer was a better pitcher than Kendrick, at least up to the 4th of July. Both are back end guys but, the big difference to me were that Moyer was more difficult to knock out of a game -and kept hte Phillies in more games as a result. He was definitely the king of hte big inning (and a homer machine) but, he also put up a ton of 0s. By my count, Moyer went at least 6 innings in 14 of his 18 starts. Kendrick has also gone at least 6IP in 14 games, but, he's had 25 starts this year. These basic stats and my own eyes say Moyer is the better pitcher. With that said, I shared Jim's apparent concern about whether he could keep it going with full season's workload expected of him. Should be interesting to see if he gets another chance.

@Fatlotti.......great points

But here is the thing with Werth he isn't doing what a 5 guy should be doing, he is the worst hitter in baseball with RISP and only has 2 hr's against LHP, so it's not like he is doing his job in that respect.

We are over 75% through the season and this team is in a fight just to get in, it may be a desperate move, but to me it's worth a shot....and I would hit Ibanez 5 and Jimmy 6.

And your right that they survived the last two years, but it's killing them this year, it's time to make that move for this year and next year, not sure where they go next year, because Brown obviously can't leadoff.

@Hugh......I don't think Moyer should have ever been given an extension and they should have a better option than Moyer or Kendrick there

@Fatalotti.......One point I may have missed, my concern is that we have played 75% of the season and 6 of the 8 regulars are having down years....alot of people think there still going to get it going, after almost 130 games I think that is being very optimistic......that's why I think a shake up is worth a shot, it may be a desperate move, but at this point it's worth a shot.

RSB: Good posts. I get sick of hearing, "So and so is a fine 5th starter because the average ERA for 5th starters is 5.87." The reason the average ERA for 5th starters is very bad is because there are so many teams (generally the low payroll bottom dwellers) who simply struggle to find 5 major league pitchers to put out there. What you'll find, though, is that almost none of these pitchers with worse ERAs than Kendrick go on to make 30+ starts in a season, as he is going to do. They eventually get replaced, because their team hopes to do better. The fact that KK is somewhat better than a bunch of major league rejects does not make him adequate.

Few playoff contending teams would settle for a guy with an ERA near 5.00 in their starting rotation. If they have such a guy in their rotation, they'll eventually reach a point where they call up someone else up & see if they can do better. And if they do keep such a guy in the rotation, it's either because of past performance that they think he can get back to (Blanton being a perfect example), or because he's got great stuff & they think that a better future lies ahead. KK fits neither prototype.

Why was Moyer's contract this huge mistake? He gave the Phillies an average of 10-plus wins the last two years while only being in the rotation for two-thirds of each season.

@Bay......great post

This is where Amaro has dropped the ball in one of many ways, but by giving Moyer that extension he gave himself little flexiblity to go get a 4th or 5th starter type to fill out the back of the rotation, especially when they had to go get Oswalt.

His bad contracts are going to be a growing concern in the years to come as well.

@RSB He has given them 10 wins with a very high ERA.....part of the reason is that he usually gets to go against the other teams 4th or 5th starters and has been given more run support than the other starters on this team.

RAJ gave him 2 years 13 mil at 46 years old. You can't tell me that if he went 2 years 16 he could have brought in someone that would have given them more at tne back of the rotation.

Moyer did enjoy great run support in 8 of his 9 wins. He only had good support in the last 2 losses, when he was bad, too. Runs scored in his first 7 losses: 1, 2, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0. 6 runs in 7 games. Phils have really had a lot of games where the offense was completely shut down.

@Hugh.......that is more of a product this year of the offense just being bad all year, considering they have scored 2 or less in a third of there games.......

I just think RAJ made one of his many mistakes with Moyer, I think emotion played into that extension....Jamie did alot for this franchise I can't dispute that, but it was time for him to go, and I think they settled for a guy that was going to have a 5 ERA, when they could have done better.

and wins are the most overrated aspect of how to judge a pitcher. Ask Cole Hamels.

I know people are cranky and looking for anything to be critical of these days, but Jamie Moyer and his contract? Jamie did a lot for this team and earned what he got. And who is this mysterious pitcher that they didn't sign because of Jamie?

@Old......I was actually more into debating the offense, but I got roped into this argument when someone earlier said that he would rather have Moyer than Kendrick.

It was two years ago I apologize, but I can't remember who was avaliable, but I think it is a bad move giving a 46 year old pitcher a 2 year extension who is a 5+ ERA guy, when there had to be better options out there.

Once again my problem is not with Moyer or even Kendrick (eventhough is isn't always getting everything out of himself) it is with Amaro, who has made numerous dumb move while this team has been under his watch.

And yes Moyer did alot for this team, an of course I appreciate that we don't win a World Series without him, but sometimes you have to make choices and take emotions out of it....The Patriots cut Lawyer Milloy after winning a super bowl, because they didn't want to pay him and went on to win two more, sometimes you have to cut ties even when it hurts to do so.

I highly doubt he will be back next year.

When this ownership has given this team a self imposed cap, you can't afford to just give a guy like Moyer 6.5 to give you a 5 something ERA when they money could be spent more wisely on a player that is going to better serve your teams needs.

@Old.......who Amaro or Moyer? just kidding I can only dream can't I?

There is no way they can bring him back again next year.....he really needs to retire, but I wouldn't be shocked with this regime if they do bring him back if he is healthy, RAJ, Dubee, and Charlie love the guy!

I wouldn't put it past Jamie to recover from this injury and pitch again. I would have no problem with the Phils signing him, but it seems unlikely.

All GMs make bad moves. It's the name of the game. In his tenure here, RAJ has brought in Polly, Ibanez, Lee, Halladay, Oswalt and Contreras. He has given up Cliff Lee for some middling prospects (and one drug addict). Overall, on paper, this is a better team than when he was handed the keys after the 2008 championship. That is the ultimate sign of a good GM. He is not perfect, but I appreciate his willingness to do what is necessary to improve our club.

Last year Cole Hamels was struggling, but he was the reigning NCLS and WS MVP. It would've been easy for RAJ to sit on his hands and expect Cole to get better. He didn't do that. He went out and got Cliff Lee and without him, no WS run last year.

This past offseason, Feliz had been steadily decreasing offensively, and had become the quintessential rally killer. He let him walk and picked up Polly, and Polly has been an upgrade.

Contreras, despite a few struggles, has been way better in the bullpen than Condrey was last year.

And, this past offseason, he was well aware the Cliff Lee wasn't going to sing long term with the Phillies, so he went out and locked up, for 4 (possibly 5) years, the best pitcher in baseball.

And at this past trading deadline, he brought in Roy Oswalt to be our #3 pitcher, when Roy Oswalt would have been dubbed an ace immediately on most other teams he joined.

There are so many GMs in this league that I'd take RAJ over in a heartbeat. He makes his mistakes, but he is comitted to winning, and after having to deal with Ed Wade for what seemed like forever, this is a great change of pace.

@Fatalotti

You may disagree here which is fine, but that is the fun in this.

Your points in what he has done well are very good, but here are the negatives in RAJ, and in no paticular order.

1. Moyer
2. Ibanez, to much money to many years for a guy that gave you a great two months in almost two years.
3. Lee, trading him away for 2 guys that will probably never see the Phillies and another who will probably get deported, they could have kept him let him walk and got the two first round draft picks for him, but this have been discussed by every phillies fan at an almost annoying rate
4. Blantons extension
5. not upgrading the bullpen other than Contreras, and praying that JC Romero could find his magic from 08 again.
6. Polly could end up being a bad contract as well if his age starts to play a factor and he only gives them 120-130 games a year for the next 2 years.
7. Coming into this season even with Cliff Lee we needed another pitcher, but he swapped aces, now I would rather have Doc, but he still needed another pitcher, now he redeemed himself on that by getting Oswalt.

I think I have a few more, but I can't think of anymore right now.....now I will agree with you that he is committed to winning, but I think he is great at getting the big names in here, but he isn't as good as a guy like Gillick in bringing in finds like a Jayson Werth or a cheap pickup like Feliz who did play great defense for us.

and yes he is an upgrade over Ed Wade, but anybody is an upgrade over Ed Wade.

just for arguments sake I love Doc, but I think Felix Hernandez is the best pitcher in baseball

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