Phillies about to reach finish line with Herndon

The heat will be off the Phillies, unofficially, when rosters expand Sept. 1. In the meantime, Rule 5 pick David Herndon is proving he belongs. (Getty)

The soon-to-be-25-year-old right-hander constituted one of the lone highlights in an otherwise forgettable finale Thursday night against the Giants, preserving the bullpen by soaking up three perfect innings. The Phils need to keep him on the active roster all season in order to retain him. Once they do, he can be maneuvered between the majors and minors as a young player normally would. The cavalry arrives in 12 days (Bastardo, Zagurski, Mathieson, Worley perhaps), so barring any unforeseen development, mission accomplished and Herndon will be in the fray for the next several years.

Controlling a young arm like Herndon’s is the real reward for dedicating precious roster space to an unproven player. But at what price? Stats never do justice to relief pitching, especially for guy like Herndon who assumed sponge role. Out of 120 games, he’s seen action in 34 of them. So the question is whether his existence prevented someone better from getting a shot. It didn't. A guy like Bastardo has been a big tease, while Mathieson doesn’t appear to have the secondary pitches needed to cross over to the big leagues. Herndon, meanwhile, at least has some assets like a big arm, good control, a sinker and improving slider suited for a middle relief role.

Did he help or hinder? At worst, it's a push, but the best may be yet to come.

Comments

[GTown_Dave]

Herndon has potential to be a valuable bullpen piece for the Phillies somewhere down the line. He's nowhere near the godawful waste of roster space (& money) that Baez continues to be. Can anyone even begin to imagine Taschner Deportes making a (potential) Post Season Phillies roster?

[Zudok]

Throws hard, throws strikes, isn't 38 years old. It was a good idea to keep him.

[CJ]

Hard to judge the Herndon move right now, but I've been on record in support of keeping him on the roster for the season. He's provided a 0.4 WAR this year which is nothing to write home about, but there's plenty of relievers with negative WARs.

His LOB% of 66% needs to get better, but maybe having that .352 BABIP go down would help with that (FIP of 3.24).

He's not really a strikeout guy, but he's got a solid GB/FB of 2.00 and has given up just one home run this year.

[J. Weitzel]

How did he handle himself jumping from Double-A to the Majors? Does he stay away from big innings and keep his cool? Have his pitches improved? Rather than stats, those are the things I'd look at first.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Early in the year, I thought Herndon's high WHIP was a product of tons of seeing eye singles. But, after months of watching him fill hte bases with regularity, I'm now convinced that hitters can place his sinker like Minnesota Fats with a cue ball. Seriously, he has to get better and, he was the one guy (exc. maybe Durbin) you could bring in when you were desperate for a double play ball.

[Jack]

Nice to see the Cubs with a lead going into the 9th against the Braves. Let's hope we see good Marmol...

Seriously, though, Phils should cut into the lead tonight if the Braves do go on to lose. Doc at home against the Nats. If that's not a win, you don't deserve to make up any ground.

[MG]

Herndon is not going to be a 'valuable bullpen piece.' This isn't a Madson-type reliever.

His value is that he can give you modest production at a very modest price the next 2 years as a back-end guy. That's his value. Instead of paying veteran league minimum or slightly more (say north of $1M) you get it for $400k or so.

[R.Billingsly]

Going to the 9th in Chicago. Cubs up on Braves 3-2.

[CJ]

Phils are 7th in stolen bases (70) in the NL, but last in caught stealing (14), while leading in SB% (83.3%), of course. We're 14th in the league in strikeouts (surprised we're not higher), but 8th in walks (also surprised we're not higher). We're just 6th in HRs this year, but 2nd in walks. Despite Valdez, we're just 12th in the league in GIDP.

[J. Weitzel]

He will be Clay Condrey until he becomes too expensive through arbitration.

[CJ]

MG should be happy... Cubs announcers just said there are about 49,000 in attendance today and, "Nobody has left."

[jason.tp]

I agree with JW, stats wont tell much of a story with just 40IP and mostly in low leverage situations.

Herndon is very hittable and doesnt really project to be much more of a mop up type guy. He throws strikes and can induce groundballs with a decent sinker.

However, bullpen peices are hard to project. Clay Condrey and Geoff Geary ended up giving the Phillies a few solid seasons, so I wouldn't count Herndon out. I think he proved himself good enough to stay on the roster as long as someone else isn't CLEARLY better. Matheison, Bastardo, Esaclona, etc. haven't dont much to justify his removal.

Idealy both Mathieson and Bastardo make Herndon a fixture in the minors next year, but i think he's earned the benefit of the doubt over both.

[R.Billingsly]

Marmol about to give the Braves the lead it appears.

[Bonehead]

Gload not in the starting lineup?
I guess the groin is still a hindrance.
I imagine he is still able to PH tonight.

Why are the Phils consistently goofy in the way that they deal with and communicate injuries?

[brother]

Bad Marmol.

[Anonymous BL Poster]

As an aside, Jimmy still thinks that Philly fans are front-runners (or whatever):

From the Phillies site ( http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100819&content_id=13665986&notebook_id=13665990&vkey=notebook_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi ):

Shortstop Jimmy Rollins said Thursday the fan support has been great and that it absolutely helps them on the field. But he also acknowledged a packed house in 2010 does not guarantee a packed house in '11 or '12 or beyond.

"If we keep winning, they'll keep showing up," he said. "If we don't do that, believe me, they will not be here."

[p. Red]

Hey Marmol, how about you pitch a strike, ok?

[CJ]

It's bad Marmol today.

[J. Weitzel]

Injuries: It starts with the players not always willing to take themselves out of the lineup.

[CJ]

Bases loaded, 1-out as Marmol walks three.

[R.Billingsly]

I can live with Herndon as Clay Condrey. I think he's been fine this year and at the bottom of the list as to why the Phillies have been in 2nd place most of the season.

[R.Billingsly]

Marmol walks the bases loaded.

1 out.

Feels like a Cubs loss.

[CJ]

Three walks and 2 strikeouts so far.

Come on Carlos!

[Bruce Ruffin]

Ankiel up, sacks are drunk...

[R.Billingsly]

Good ol' Melky Cabrerea. Guys walks the bases loaded and he goes up there hacking.

What an idiot.

[jason.tp]

Also, look at one of our bullpen heros Chad Durbin.

A failed 5th starter in Detroit who we picked up to compete as a swingman with arguably similiar 'stuff' as Herndon, although his slider has become pretty effective ever since focusing on a 1 inning role.

[limoguy]

Not going to second guess the FO on this guy.

I agree that they didn't have anybody better to replace him with anyway.

Like all phans, I hope he ends up being a steal.

[GTown_Dave]

MG: I think you're misinterpreting my use of the term "valuable". I used it to indicate the same qualities you outlined above. Compare what the Phillies might get out of Herndon for a couple of years for a relative pittance to what they're paying a vet like Baez to (not) give them. I don't believe anyone feels Herndon = Madson, but one must also keep in mind the latter is getting paid his full $4.5 million salary this season despite missing 1/3 of the same due to a self-inflicted injury.

[R.Billingsly]

Ugh.

[GTown_Dave]

F*ckin' Marmol.

[Bruce Ruffin]

Bleepin' Ankiel!!!!!!!!!

[keith]

Marmol....shaking my head. Why the Cubs are the Cubs right? I hate all closers except for 2008 Brad Lidge.

[p. Red]

You have got to be kidding me. Braves can't keep consistently winning like this, can they?

[R.Billingsly]

I guess that makes it 22 wins for the Braves in their final AB.

Unbelievable.

[R.Billingsly]

Marmol struck out the side. Way to go, idiot.

[EastFallowfield]

Marlins catcher Ronny Paulino was suspended for 50 games on Friday for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance in violation of Major League Baseball's Drug Policy.

[CJ]

Ugh. Cubs blow. I know the 9th inning matters, too... but the Braves have been finding late runs a LOT recently. In their last 10 games, they've scored just 1 or 2 runs through 8 innings in 8 of them. That's not a recipe for success. Assuming they hold on today, they'll be 8-2 in those games. 8-2 in 10 games where they were held to just 1 or 2 runs through 8 innings 8 times.

That's what happens when you play the Astros, Dodgers, Nats and Cubs, who are a combined 51 games under .500 this year.

[CJ]

Hey, maybe The Rat will blow one here.

[R.Billingsly]

An out away from winning the game and they're going to lose by 2.

Walks, walks, walks. They always seem to come around and score, don't they?

[kilbillrain]

what is it...4-3 Braves?

[Fatalotti]

As much as people want to malign the Braves this year, there is something to be said about having the ability to keep winning late, close games. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that this team is for real, that they are a legitimate title contender, and that if somehow the Phillies win this division this year, it will be their most deserving title of them all. This Braves team is for real, and the Phillies are going to have play their butts off to win this division. They are going to have to beat the Braves one on one to win this division, and with the last series being in Atlanta, that is no small task, to say the least.

[Pat]

2010 Braves look a lot like the 2008 Phillies

[seattlephan]

Marmol fvcking sucks

[R.Billingsly]

kilbillrain: 5-3. Bases clearing triple by Ankiel.

[R.Billingsly]

Fatalotti: You're right. Wins are wins. Doesn't matter how you get 'em.

[GTown_Dave]

5-3, Braves.

At quick glance, it appears the Braves have a ridiculously easy schedule the rest of the way. As such, I don't expect Atlanta to begin losing anytime soon. The Phillies need to stay w/in a couple of games & take advantage of their 6 remaining shots head-to-head.

[CJ]

5-3 Braves. Cubs announcers think Ankiel should have struck out... Ankiel check swung at ball one and it was close.

[R.Billingsly]

Come on Billy, blow another save.

[limoguy]

Maybe the Braves are glad Cox is finally leaving?

[Jack]

At some point, how they win becomes irrelevant, and the fact of the matter just becomes that the Braves have won more games than us.

I agree with most people that, predictively, we're a better team going forward. But the later it becomes, and the longer they keep the lead, however they're doing it, through luck or whatever, the better their chances to just keep the lead the whole time.

There's only 40 games left, and they have a 2.5 game lead. The argument that "they can't keep this up" is intellectually valid, but the shorter the remaining sample, the less likely it is to come true.

[R.Billingsly]

The Braves' schedule is quite easy. The Phils is a little tougher because they play SD on the road and...another tough series somewhere. Can't remember off the top of my head.

[CJ]

Phils have 6 games against the Braves remaining. That's all that matters.

[Jack]

Also, considering how the Phillies have been praised by people on here (and rightfully so) for having so much heart and fighting to the end and having so many comeback victories the last 3 years, I find it funny how quick people are to chalk up this Braves' team as "lucky".

Either we should acknowledge how much luck the Phillies have had over the last few years as well, or we should acknowledge that the Braves are a worthy team so far.

[howard01]

Braves pythagorean W-L actually suggests they are a game worse than their runs for/against ratio would suggest. So, they haven't been a lucky team over the course of the season, but they have been getting all the breaks recently.

[R.Billingsly]

Gosh darnit, Cubs!

Excuse the language.

[bay_area_phan]

I am seriously sick of the Braves.

[p. Red]

CJ: Exactly. Just win those games and we win the division.

Thankfully, their habit of 9th inning heroics won't help them against us because we have such a dominant clo... oh wait. Crap.

[Bruce Ruffin]

Clean inning; the RoF (Rodent Factor metric) is near 1.000. And this is why I believe the only real guarantee for the division this year will be a 100 win season. If I had a nickel for every time I heard the Phil’s will win the NL East, I’d have beer money.

Problem is, the Brave come up with efforts – time after time – just like today. And the Phils can’t buy a big inning for Cole Hamels.

Something tells me if things don't change, we may not be caring much about the last 6 with the Braves. They just have that look. Regardless, we need a very long winning streak starting soon (like tonight!).

[phlipper]

You have got to be kidding me. Braves can't keep consistently winning like this, can they?

They've done it all year. I keep expecting them to slide - they haven't.

[limoguy]

Lame excuses for hitters Wagner had to face.

[EastFallowfield]

Didn't we get a similar win vs Marmol?

Of course, when we get them, it's because the other team choked or sucks, we definitely do not deserve those types of wins.

[HammRadio]

I'm not worried. They will not beat us in the more than 2 times in the final six. They just won't.

[CJ]

Jack: What are you talking about? No one on here gives the Phils credit for anything. Every win we get is only due to some horrible failure by our opponents... so I don't see a double standard here.

[EastFallowfield]

Phils win tonight, Braves will be 13-6 in August and have lost a game in the standings.

[Fatalotti]

Call me crazy, but if the Phillies make the playoffs as the WC team, I wouldn't be that upset by it. With our starting pitching, I think the home/road split can be neutralized. The hardest series this team has played in the postseason the last couple years have been road series (TB, NYY and Dodgers last year). They are 2-1 in those series, and with a better Hamels like he is this year and a better Lidge (at least I think), who knows how far they take that NYY series. Their home series from the last two postseasons (Dodgers in '08, Brewers in '08 and Rockies last year) weren't against the tougher teams. They showed that they can play with the best of the best, even if they didn't have homefield. That said, I still want them to win the division, though i recognize how tough that will be.

[CJ]

Yo, new thread.

[Bruce Ruffin]

HammRadio -- Then we better not be 5 back...

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread