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Thursday, August 19, 2010


It boggles my mind that the Rockies released Hawpe. I'd love to have him, but the rumors don't make much sense. If only he were right-handed, he'd be a great fit as Werth's replacement.

Funny, I hope Jaime Moyer isn't washed up for similar reasons.

Does Hawpe have a Survivor wife/fiancee/girlfriend? If not, he needs to look elsewhere. He won't fit in with this team.

Agreed on the washed up stuff. Keep hope alive!

As for Werth's departure, imminent schmimminent. Rube needs to find a way to keep him.

That "Stephanie & Kyle" website is hilarious, although I'm pretty sure that's not the intent. Saccharin...Reads like a HS yearbook....Slightly less humiliating than that "traded to Japan" prank Kyle endured. (And not nearly as funny, so I might need to take back the label hilarious.) ....Well, I hope their happiness lasts.

I wouldn't be so sure that Jason is leaving - if he gets hot and stays hot into the playoffs, then his odds of staying are going to rise. I realize that you can make the same argument for him leaving as his price goes up. But, we got burned on Cliff Lee. I don't see the team making the same mistake twice. in my mind, Jason is a keeper.

Mayor: I think any chance of resigning Werth probably ended when we made the Oswalt trade.

Repost -- awh -- Wouldn't other metrics (SIERA? ERA+?) for Doc, Roy and Cole betray those relatively low win percentages; especially for Cole Hamels? I'm about to get tossed off of the laptop by my daughter; I'll try to check later.

Regardless, I really think that the best starting 3 in the NL, plus KK at his pluckiest and an occasional gem thrown by KY Joe gets us closer than not to the magical 100 win total.

Why are we all assuming that Werth won't be back? Just a collective hunch, or has any real evidence surfaced that points to him leaving?.

Mayor: They shopped him this summer and they have no money. He's a goner.

regarding mancrushes I think sifl has one on me. That doofus brings my name up all the time even when I'm not even around.

I don't even talk about myself as much as sifl likes to. Re-evaluate your life man.

If Rube figures out a way to keep Werth and can also keep the present team with Sweeney, Valdez, Ben Fran, Jose Contreras, Durbin and Domo the Bombo intact, I will have to become the biggest Rube fan of all time.

BAP: Hard to believe they couldn't even get a low-level prospect for him. I think he's a pretty good player. He just got squeezed out in Col because of CarGo, Fowler and Smith/Spilborghs.

Kutztown fan -- The $140mm line of demarcation? I believe the FO turns into a pumpkin if the annual salary expenditure goes over $145mm (+-).

TTI: Wait, sifl has been two-timing me?

So let me get this straight, the Phils are already probably pushing their maximum level for payroll expenses this year, Hawpe has a nice price-tag left on him yet for the year, the Phils already have a young OF who bats left-handed on their bench, and really don't need another OF at this point.

Really I think Rosenthal just sometimes mentions teams in these types of reports on the flimiest of actual evidence.

Seems to me Rube and Jayson can work something out if they are a bit creative. Lower salary in 2011 then backload the contract in the later years when the Phils don't have nearly as much salary committed.

Oswalt's salary does indeed clog things up a bit for a few seasons. But I would expect the budget to increase with a few more successful seasons. If they up it to 155mil next season, I think they can fit Jayson in there. Move Heavy B and a few other smaller pieces and room can be created.

MG, I think you are right. The popularity of Twitter requires national guys to keep putting rumors out there to keep up with the Joneses...that's all this is.

Spitz - If it was a reliever (especially a lefty), I would definitely believe that Rube would be all over it.

Sweeney was his bench move to get another veteran right-handed bat off the bench besides Francisco.

Kutztown fan:

Werth's own comments about how he's played his entire career for this season where he can be a free agent suggest to me he is psyched about the open market. He may end up in Philly, but he's said himself he's excited to open the bidding.

And if there is open bidding, then that means the result would not be value-positive for the Phillies.

I clicked that link of KK's wedding thing in our home office and spit the first mighty gulp of my "after work refreshment" all over the screen. That website is bad news, bro.
Kyle, son, you don't look like Jorge Cantu and you got some major earning years ahead of you. Do not, I repeat, do not marry older at this point. Drop her back off on the island.
The tribe has spoken.....

Keep Jayson Werth? Not a chance. Domonic Brown will be a starting OF with the Phils next year. Where's he going to play if Werth is retained?

I love Jayson Werth, and he's awesome, but he's going to get a monster contract from someone and it won't be the Phils.

"I don't think he's washed up at 31. I hope not. I'm 32."

Great line. A lot of us hope not!

Did anybody catch what the sign in right field of DC's field says? Something about oldest continuous franchise in national league? I thought the Phils held this designation.

Regarding Werth, I still cling to a slight hope that they can keep him. Phuture Phillies did a nice analysis about keeping Werth where they suggest the Phils budget is probably 60% of revenue. PP recommends what aksmith advocates, a back-end loaded, five-year, $80m deal. But if it's an open bidding situation, he's probably gone. Wonder what we do with the lineup next year post-Werth -- Vic fifth, Brown 6th, Ibanez 7th?

CJ: If they can unload Ibanez for a bag of knee braces, they might be able to pull off a Werth signing.

What I find amusing (in a dark humor kind of way) is if you click on the "how we met" link, it appears that Stephanie said no to Kyle the first few times he asked to date. Then, finally, she said yes.

Who wants to bet that the "yes" was perfectly timed with her finding out he had a good chance of sticking as a major league baseball player? Anyone?

Ok, I officially looked at that website way too long, but it's almost like a car don't wanna look, you don't wanna look...but somehow you just can't help yourself.

JW - When exactly do baseball bloggers 'peak'?

None of us know her, but we all agree -- he needs to get away!! How do we make this happen? It's important to the team b/c this time next year KK will undoubtedly be a huge head case.

sifl: Raul Ibanez has a Full No Trade Clause™. Regardless of whether he's Washed Up™ or Back™, he will be with the Phillies next year.

Yo, new thread™.

The $140M is not set in stone. It will probably go up (along with a concomitant hike in ticket prices). I do think the 60% figure cited by Marlowe is set in stone. Still, they'd have to bump payroll by a LOT in order to pay for Jayson Werth. I don't see it happening.

Little ollie, you didn't even take into consideration the post wedding "blahs" the team ended up with the beginning of this season after Vic's wedding. Injuries, pitching and batting way, nobody is allowed to get married until we get three or four more rings.

"awh -- Wouldn't other metrics (SIERA? ERA+?) for Doc, Roy and Cole betray those relatively low win percentages; especially for Cole Hamels? I'm about to get tossed off of the laptop by my daughter; I'll try to check later.

Regardless, I really think that the best starting 3 in the NL, plus KK at his pluckiest and an occasional gem thrown by KY Joe gets us closer than not to the magical 100 win total."

Posted by: Bruce Ruffin

Bruce, I'll let Sophist answer that question, but there are other factors that influence a SP record other than their own pitching - i.e. bullpen blowing a lead, etc.

So, in light of that, I took a look at the TEAM'S record in GS by H2O. I dropped the pre-2001 record for Halladay, because 2000 was the year he got sent down to get fixed, and I didn't think those numbers would be representative.

Team Record in Games Started:

Doc: 190 - 106, .642
Roy: 177 - 118, .600
Cole: 80 - 60, .571


447 - 284, .611

The only one of the three who's TEAM has a better winning percentage than he does - in games he starts - is Hamels.

Now, as I mentioned, there a lot of factors other than the SP performance that goes into a win, but my point is that expecting to WIN 65% of H2O's starts the rest of the season is a little bit of a stretch on my part.

OTOH, maybe I'm selling the KK/JB combo a little short.

Lifetime winning percentage:

KK: 32 - 19, .627
JB: 68 - 60, .531

Team Record in Games Started:

KK: 46 - 29, .613
JB: 95 - 87, .521


141 - 116, .549

Therefore, maybe we need to do it this way:

H2O: 26 starts @ .611 = 16 wins.

KK/JB: 15 starts @ .549 = 8 wins.

Spot: 2 starts @ .500 + 1 win.

That come to 25 more wins this season.

93 wins, unless the team continues to play at a clip that's above averages.

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