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Monday, August 30, 2010

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Still need to understand why CM would let Cole bat in the 8th after throwing over 100 pitches, then pitch the 8th and take him out in the 9th only to have him replaced with Madson with a 5 run lead.

This is the kind of managerial gaffes we see on a regular basis and they will cost us games.

What a difference a sweep makes.

I'm feeling good. Can someone help refresh my memory about the 2008 and 2009 playoffs? I recall most of our wins being on the shoulders of good pitching and clutch hitting. Aside from the 2008 WS game, I don't recall bashing a team to death.

JW, as I mentioned at the end of the last thread, the Phils are the current WC LEADERS. We should be hopeful about their reaching the postseason (they control their onw destiny) - if the season ended today they would.

Win and they're in.

RK: I'm still waiting for someone to show where the Phils lost a game because a reliever Charlie wanted to use was unavailable due to overuse. When you find it, let me know. Thanks.

Re: Halladay as Cy Young frontrunner?

I don't think it's that close right now. As I posted last thread:

With Wainright's bad start, Halladay is back on top of the NL in ERA. He also leads the league in Ks and is just 1 win behind in that category. The pitching triple crown is certainly within reach.

He also leads the league in IP, CG and SHO. He also has the fewest walks allowed of any pitcher with at least 120 IPs.

His K/BB ratio is 7.44. Second in the league is 4.86. He also averages the fewest pitches per inning of any pitcher with at least 120 IPs.

Wow.

So, I'm interested in what to expect from our top 3 down the stretch, so I'm looking at career Sept/Oct (reg. season) numbers for our top 3. I started with Halladay.

His Sept ERA is lowest at 2.36. All his other numbers are markedly better in Sept. BA against is his lowest at .231, OBP is lowest at .272, SLG is lowest at .330, hits given up is lowest, HR is lowest by a considerable margin. Now, he only has 48 Sept/Oct starts, whereas he has 55 starts in May and June, 57 in April, 49 in July and 50 in August. OPS+ against is also lowest for him in September at 80. His K/BB ratio is 3.92, again his highest. He has 6 career Sept. shutouts, and 13 complete games. Again, his highest.

All in all, the numbers seem to point to the fact that the best of Halladay may be to come, and since he's having his best year thanks to his handy new changeup, we may be in for a real treat with Halladay for the end of the season.

For what it's worth, he's 23-11.

I'll check out Oswalt next.

Their old yellow and brown uniforms, arranged in a "front and back" manner, might be more appropriate to their performance against Phils' pitching this past series.

RK - not sure that "gaffes" is the right word. Not even "blunders." You might be searching for something like "poor choices." But when they work is it bad? And after getting swept four by Houston and you're playing the team with the best record in the league, is it really such a poor choice to keep Hamels in and bring in the most dependable reliever?

I might have done it differently. But at a certain point, we have to recognize that Manuel is the guy with access to the pitching coach, who will tell him when someone needs to come out or not pitch.

I like the pitching matchups this series as well. Halladay versus Kuroda, who has given us trouble over time. Kendrick versus Monasterios, who is learning to pitch and won't go deep in the game. And Oswalt versus Kershaw, which is obviously a tough matchup but right now still an advantage to us.

RK- Cole was pitching strong going into the 8th , Madson was warmed up and ready to go for the 9th & probably can be reasted tonight with Roy #1 and a rested remainder of the pen,
CM wanted to seal the sweep.
As badly as Cole needed some run support , he got some yesterday. We did not need to let that one get awaty and Madson was the right man to finish it up.
I can understand the feelings to use your second tier relievers in a 5 run situation, but a clean 9th inning was a great way finish up the weekend series.

Postseason bashes, arbitrarily using 5 or more run margin:

2009 WS: Beat Yankees 6-1

2009 NLCS: Beat LA 11-0 and 10-4

2008 WS: Beat Rays 10-2

RK, its not like he didn't pitch the 8th inning. And hamels is a decent batter for a pitcher. Let it go...

I love the run support, but still wish they could have got it to Cole a little earlier than the 7th. Pitching another 6 innings with minimal run support has to be tough...

CJ: Correct. Anyone who wants to argue that Roy isn't the front runner now is either not following baseball closely, or is overvaluing W-L record. Wainwright has had a phenomenal season, and I wouldn't be upset to see him beat Roy out, but after losing his lead in ERA there is really no defense to voting for him over Roy.

Cliff Lee?

If the Phillies make the post season, I like their chances of going to their third World Series in a row. I do not, however, feel as confident at their ability to beat the American League representative unless the offense picks it up.

About a week or so ago, the guys on Baseball Tonight were debating the NL Cy Young. Two of the guys said it should be Adam Wainwright. That's certainly a defensible argument, but Tim Kurkjian's reasoning wasn't so defensible ("He deserved it last year, and he's even better this year").

The third guy, Dave Winfield, said it should be Ubaldo. His argument, "He's got 17 wins and he pitched a no-hitter." I guess that trumps 16 wins and a perfect game -- not to mention far better numbers in every other significant area.

Our SP is quite good. We've got #1, 4, 8 in the NL in K/BB ratio. Oh, we've also got #10. This guy Joe Blanton, who has been considered finished by many here.

Those Phillie fans in distant stadiums are a few of the hundreds of thousands who left PA for jobs, retirement, school in recent decades (and their offspring). It's easy to be proud of the old home town teams when they're winning.

Roy Oswalt's Sept/Oct numbers:

ERA: 2.78,
BA: .253
OBP: .298
SLG: .370 (BAbip: .313)

K/BB: 4.29 (better than Halladay...)
SHO: 3
WHIP: 1.165
K/9: 7.9
W/L: 28-9 (by the way, his August W/L was 31-7, and he sures lived up to his rep for us in August)

So, here we have, yet again, a pitcher who is strongest in September. His numbers are damn good. So far with the two Roys, it's more than reasonable to expect them to keep pitching like they have in their last 5 starts.

Next, Cole.

BAP: They had a similar segment yesterday on Baseball Tonight, and obviously Kurk and Olney went with Wainwright. I love that Dave Winfield comment. ESPN is paying him to tell us nonsense. I actually was surprised that Kurk and Olney implied that Wainwright was such an obvious choice.

To be fair, they did say that it will probably come down to who has the best September between the two, which I've felt would be the case for several weeks.

RK, IIRC, Madson began getting loose when the lead was only 3 runs. As such, charlie had probably decided to use him no matter what.

You can call it a "gaffe" if you like, that's your opinion, but I think you're being silly.

It was, as JW says, as statement game, and as much of a "must" win as any other game. Cole was dealing, and judging by his reaction to Dubee in the dugout after finishing the 8th, wanted to finish the game. He's gone 110- 120 pitches many time before (117 yesterday).

Why wouldn't you use your best reliever, who, incidentally, has only pitched 36.2 innings this season?

Are you saying Madson has been overused?

Let's review:

Aug 2008: 14.1 IP, 68.2 IP by 8/31, finished with 82.2 IP

Aug 2009: 13.2 IP, 64.0 IP by 8/31, finished with 77.1 IP

Aug 2010: 17.1 IP, 36.2 season-to-date, on pace for approx 50 IP


So, Madson has been used for 3 more innings in August then he was in 2008, when he logged over 80 IP for the season.

Do you really think that's going to wear his arm out, especially considering he's inly pitched about 1/2 the innings to this point in the season that he pitched the prior two seasons?

Really?

"This guy Joe Blanton, who has been considered finished by many here."

How ever said this?

Unfortunately, there will be a lot of sentiment for Wainwright because of the perception that he got screwed last year.

1. Many analysts are dumb.

2. Those who are not dumb, as John Kruk has admitted, are often paid by their employer to say things they don't really believe. It's a boring show if there's unanimity, right?

You folks do realize that those espn commentators are scripted? I doubt most of them know who they favor for the CY, for example, until they read about it on their teleprompter.

MG,

I think most here thought Blanton had royally sucked most of 2010. Not sure anyone thought he was "finished". He just wasn't pitching worth a damn.

The fact that he's put some good starts together now, is probably more a case of the law of averages taking over and the fact that it almost wasn't humanly possible to pitch worse then he did most of 2010.

the moment halladay throws a complete game shutout against the braves will be the time he becomes the obvious choice and front-runner for the cy young...the cards are reeling and two teams from the NL east will be making the playoffs which should earn some votes for halladay

Maybe I should rephrase. I think we all thought Blanton should have been non-tendered given the Lee situation for most of the year, but he's earning his contract with his recent performance.

Cole Hamels' Sept/Oct numbers:

ERA: 3.06 (his best)
BA: .241
OBP: .297
SLG: .364 (BAbip: .312)

Also, his best HR month, in that he's given up far fewer.

K/BB: 3.51
SHO: 1
WHIP: 1.195
K/9: 9.3 (his best)
W/L: 9-6

Yeah, I'll take these numbers from my number 2, especially when you have two no-doubt-about-it September aces on your staff.

Question: Should the Phillies top 3 pitch exceptionally well down the stretch, based on career numbers?

Answer: Hell yeah!

I never thought Blanton was finished. I was waiting for him to get started.

The national commentators are getting worse and worse espcially on ESPN. Joe Morgan espcially has transformed into a complete farce over the years, and cannot make a comment about any player during a game without inserting his own career somehow into the conversation. You can sense the tension between him and Hersheiser every Sunday. Miller is able to play it off because I think he realizes what a clown he has become.

Joe Blanton's career September numbers aren't good, but I submit this. Since he got a late start this year, and since he's also gotten to swing of things later, in general, tham most years, it may be slightly fair to treat his September numbers like his career August numbers (I'm being biased here, but work with me)

August numbers (which hopefully will be mimicked in this year's September run)

ERA: 2.77 (his best)
BA: .259
OBP: .309
SLG: .372 (BAbip: .301)

K/BB: 2.89 (his best)
SHO: 0
WHIP: 1.237 (2nd best month)
K/9: 6.6 (his best)
W/L: 14-6

Again, maybe it's a bit of a stretch to project his September based on his career August numbers, but based on his late start, and his generally slower than normal rounding into form, and also based on his recent trend of good starts, I think a case can be made.

Phils and nova, Halladay has already thrown a CGSO and a complete game, 1 run outing against the Braves this year. Not sure how much more he has to prove against the Braves.

"two teams from the NL east will be making the playoffs"


Careful, there's still a lot of baseball left.

One possibility that's not being considered is two playoff teams coming out of the NL West.

SD currently has the best record in the league, but as Sophist has so ably pointed out many times, they have the toughest schedule left of all the playoff contenders.

San Fran is currently only 1-1/2 off of the wild card pace, ans could overtake SD for the division, principally by winning their head to head matchups the rest of the season (7 games).

It's entirely possible that SF could get hot the rest of the season and beat the Pads enough head-to-head to win the division.

Why is it impossible for SD to win enough games the rest of the season to maintain their lead over the Braves (1.5) and Phillies(3.0)?

Why is it impossible for the Phillies to win the division, and not have SFG overtake ATL? Their 3.5 games behind Atlanta with 30 to play.

For that matter, why is it impossible for STL to get incredibly hot (2 great top-of-rotation SP + Garcia) and make the WC?

Don't forget the patented late season run by the Rocks.

Fatalotti, not to apply the patented "Beer*Leaguer Revers Jinx", but a 3.06 ERA is #1 level performance.

Essentially, the Phillies are entering September with 3, as in "three", legitimate top-of-the-rotation SP.

If they maintain their lead in the WC (I know they really want to catch the Braves and make a statement by doing so), they will be in the playoffs.

They control their own destiny.

If they make the playoffs, those three SP match up against any rotation in MLB.


[Now if they can only start scoring some runs again.]

awh, it's entirely possible that any of the teams in the hunt could make it. But, the Phillies have the best SP of any of them (and they've been proving it on the mound), and the Braves have good pitching, an opportunistic offense, and some sort of supernatural mojo right now.

If I were a better man, I'd be on the Phils, Braves, Reds and Padres making the playoffs. Seeding I'm not so sure about.

If I were a *betting* man

"Unfortunately, there will be a lot of sentiment for Wainwright because of the perception that he got screwed last year."

Yeah, don't count your Cy Young chickens before they hatch. Lincecum was arguably the least deserving of the trio between Wainwright, Carpenter and Lincecum. Lincecum won because the vote was split.

Unless the pitcher holds the triple crown, I don't think you can say any pitcher is a "lock."

phils and nova: Roy Halladay has already thrown a complete game shutout against the Braves... in addition to a complete game 1-run effort.

But I get your point... it will be high profile if he does it again in September.

Unlike MVP, being on a playoff team is 100% irrelevant in Cy Young voting. The award goes to the best pitcher, period. You have to go all the way back to 2005, when Chris Carpenter won it, to find a NL Cy Young winner whose team made the playoffs. In the AL, the last 2 winners have been Zack Greinke & Cliff Lee, neither of whose team made the playoffs.

Playing on a good team helps only in that it's easier to win a lot of games if you have a good team around you.

again, enough with the madson garbage. nothing has happened yet. wait until something happens. unless one of you can predict the future, then you have no grounds on anything. nothing has happened.

Is it WC leaders or WFC leaders?

Am I the only one who thinks there should be a Ryan Howard/Mike Sweeney platoon at 1B until Ryan gets his swing back?

My point is that we got 7 excellent innings he could have sat him down and save the innings for another day. How many inning you pitch has to do with how you will perform going forward (as we heard about Cole all of last year). But my point was since he made the choice to have him pitch the 8th then why not the 9th to let him go for a complete game .
Basically my point is that after the 7th he should have come out our relief is fine at this point to let Madson do the 8th and Lidge the 9th. In addition you could have given the PA to someone else who needed it more than Cole (he won’t have any plate appearances if we got WFS.
Do these things add up? Of course they do. We see these kinds of bone headed moves virtually in every game. I sure wish there was a statistic of managerial contribution to wins and losses—CM would be near the bottom , just ahead of JM the Mets manager definitely the dumbest in baseball.

We will need to score @ 7 tomorrow night with Mr, I am scared of my own shadow, Kendrick pitching. However with Monasterios pitching for LA there is that glimmer that scoring those runs would be a possibility

As far as Halladay winning the Cy Young is concerned, let me ask one question:

Do you think he cares?

Or, do you think he cares about making the playoffs and winning the WS?

Which do you think HE would prefer?

Re: Halladay and the Cy Young award.

If Halladay isn't the clear frontrunner right now to those who do the voting, then they aren't interested in what the pitcher has actually done on the mound. They are only interested in superficial perceptions. This may be the case, unfortunately.

No pitcher, and I mean NO pitcher in all of baseball has given his team what Halladay has given the Phillies. Innings pitched, complete games, not putting runners on base with walks, low ERA, strikeouts, ground balls, going deep in games where he's having a bad game (he is .1 innings away and a botched DP ball by Greg Dobbs from being the 2nd pitcher in all of baseball who's gone 6 IP in every start, Myers being the other; difference between the two, is that Halladay has gone 8-9 IP a LOT more times).

Simply put, I'll take Halladay on my staff over ANY pitcher in baseball right now. He's simply been the most consistently dominant. He hasn't had to rely on an incrdible stretch or a few great outings here. He has been nasty from April until now, with a couple bad outings sprinkled in.

He's the best pitcher in baseball, hands down.

AWH: I think he would prefer both. Every player strives to win the World Series. Every player also strives to be recognized as the best in the game.

I don't know why you're phrasing the argument as if they're mutually exclusive.

denny b - I did think he would pitch better just because of a 'law of averages' thing. Have to admit that I didn't seeing him putting together this kind of August though. Thoght he would be more of a 4.00-4.25 ERA type month which still woud have been a notable improvement.

awh, I look at the Cy Young award for Halladay like this. If Halladay wins the Cy Young Award, it will mean he was the best pitcher in the NL. If he's the best pitcher in the NL, especially in September, then he's done more to push his team to the postseason than any other pitcher in the NL.

So yes, based on his desire to get to the postseason, I think Halladay wants to be worthy of the Cy Young, because that will mean he's done everything in his power to get his team to the postseason.

"Do you think he cares [about Cy Young Award]?"

Of course, he does.

"Or, do you think he cares about making the playoffs and winning the WS?"

Can he care about both?

"Which do you think HE would prefer?"

I don't actually know. Every athlete in a team sport is programmed to say that he cares more about winning than about individual awareds. Very often, such proclamations are a total crock. A better question is: would it bother me if Roy Halladay secretly cared more about winning the Cy Young Award than about winning the World Series? Answer: not in the slightest bit.

BTW, I think Oswalt might be the real guy to watch in September. Oswalt was the ace for years with Houston, and now he's moved somewhere where he is considered the #2 (and maybe even the #3).

You think that doesn't fire a guy like Oswalt up (in a good way)?

Beisdes his stinker first outing, he's pitched brilliantly since coming here. I wouldn't be suprised if he outpitched Hamels and Halladay in September.

awh, if he had to choose, he would choose winning the WFC hands down. However, he wouldn't turn down the Cy Young if he won it.

BAP, I'd rather a pitcher care MORE about the Cy Young then making the postseason (assuming the Cy Young actually goes to the legitimately best pitcher), because then he'd try to put his best stuff out there every 5th day, and that can only mean good things for the team.

Not that I don't think Halladay wants a crack at the postseason more than anything in baseball. Anyhow, this seems like a pointless speculation. All three of these pitchers want to win the WS and all three want to be the best pitcher in baseball. It's probably the main reason that all three so cot damn good.

And I'm glad they're on the Phillies.

Why would a pitcher's performance be better if he cared more about the Cy Young than getting into the playoffs?

Heather, I didn't "phrasing the argument as if they're mutually exclusive".

Go back and read it again.

I simply asked which do you think he'd prefer?

That's in any way implying he wouldn't want both at the same time.

OP, it probably would be nominal, if anything, but if a pitcher cares about the Cy Young more than anything else, he's going to try be better every single outing, whereas, if he only cares about the posteason, if his team is largely out of contention or has a huge lead, he may not pitch as well.

Again, none of this applies to our top 3. They all want to win the WS and they all want to be the best pitcher in baseball. That's how it should be.

heather: "Am I the only one who thinks there should be a Ryan Howard/Mike Sweeney platoon at 1B until Ryan gets his swing back?"

So Sweeney went from a useless waiver pick-up to a candidate to replace one of the best hitters in the lineup?

To answer - I wouldn't consider a straight platoon, but if Ryno still cant hit RHP for another few days, then it is probably a good idea to keep him away from LHP.

However, once he starts producing against RHP(or anyone) I wouldn't remove him at all, regardless of the pitcher.

"Am I the only one who thinks there should be a Ryan Howard/Mike Sweeney platoon at 1B until Ryan gets his swing back?"

I'm thinking, Yes, yes you are.

"CAWWS" ratio of leading NL Cy Young contenders:

Roy Halladay: 152
Adam Wainwright: 75
Ubaldo Jimenez: 121
Tim Hudson: 134
Josh Johnson: 95

"CAWWS," as I'm sure you all know, stands for "Cares About Winning the World Series." Wainwright already won one, so his CAWWS ratio is pretty low. He will definitely lose Cy Young votes as a result, and rightly so.

Fatalotti, did you look at Kendrick?

b-r.com says he's terrible in Sept/Oct: 5.65 ERA. Ugh.

I posted a week ago that I hoped they'd win half his starts the rest of the season.

Here's hoping that wasn't too optimistic.

First 6 appearances for the Phils

Lee: 45 IP, 1.80 ERA, 5-1, 44 K, 6 BB
Oswalt: 41.1 IP, 2.18 ERA, 5-1, 35 K, 9 BB

A bit worse, but Phils have Doc now and Hamels in 2008 form.

awh, in Kendrick's last 5 starts the Phils are 2-3. Considering how poorly he's pitched and the lack of offense of late, that's not so bad. Half his starts is a good over/under.

bap, it wouldn't bother me either.

However, the reason I posted the questions is that I firmaly believe Roy Halladay cares first about the team winning the WS.

He said it. I believe him.

awh, after this long stretch, the Phils begin getting some regular off days. They should be able to restructure the rotation and get Kendrick out of there as often as possible, without pitching anyone on short rest.

Point being, Halladay/Hamels/Oswalt will affect the outcome our season by the largest percetage, followed closely by Blanton.

Kendrick will not have a chance to offset the top 4's contributions, if they limit him to 4 September starts.

"Do you think he cares?

Or, do you think he cares about making the playoffs and winning the WS"

AWH, this comment reads to me as if you're implying they are mutually exclusive. Usually if you present an "or" statement people are saying it's one or the other.

If you weren't doing that, then your phrasing must have confused me.

"b-r.com says he's terrible in Sept/Oct: 5.65 ERA. Ugh."

If you look at his month-by-month career numbers, they follow the same trend of a typical Joe Blanton start: bad at the beginning; passable in the middle; wears down too early at the end.

I also can't help but wonder if KK's bad Septembers have anything to do with roster expansions, which enable opposing teams to pack their lineups full with left-handed hitters.

BAP, my hope with Blanton, given his late start this year, is that his September going forward emulates his career August numbers.

Do you think that's a reasonable expectation?

Kendrick's September numbers are all due to 2008

07: 26 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.346 WHIP
08: 10.1 IP, 14.81 ERA, 2.323 WHIP
09: 21.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.286 WHIP

I wouldn't say he has a bad track record in September. He has one bad September and two good ones. His one bad one came in his worse year as a starter. His ERA was a full run higher than year than this year.

"If you look at his month-by-month career numbers, they follow the same trend of a typical Joe Blanton start: bad at the beginning; passable in the middle; wears down too early at the end"

Makes me wonder if it's a conditioning problem.

Being a 33-year old veteran who has already won a Cy Young Award, but never even reached the post-season, I would tend to agree that Halladay is probably being truthful when he says that winning a WS is what matters most to him. But literally every baseball player says the same thing. If Halladay really means it, that would put him in the distinct minority.

Doc tries to get 27 batters out in every start. He wants to win. The more successful he is, the better chance he has of winning the CY and taking his team to the playoffs. I'm sure he wants to win the CY and the WS. Is it any more complicated than that?

If Halladay keeps pitching the way he has been pitching, he can think whatever he wants!
WS Ring , Cy Young- it's all good.

****A bit worse, but Phils have Doc now and Hamels in 2008 form. ****

I wonder who will give us more wins in 2011...Lee or Oswalt?

Exactly Sophist. Cole, Doc and Os all want to win the WS and want to be the best pitcher in baseball, and that's how it should be.

Also, I don't know why people think so few players actually want to win a WS. Most of these players were and are fans like us, and have dreamed of this stuff. If they follow the money, that doesn't mean they don't want to win a WS; it just means they understand that WS championships won't pay the bills. If you have a chance to get the money and maybe go to a team with less a chance to win a WS, I don't fault any player for taking more money. It's not always the best team on paper who wins it all anyhow.

It always bothers me that people get mad at players for going to the Yankees (for the record, I do hate the Yankees, but trying to be rational here). The Yankees overspend on all their players, mostly, and the Yankees care about nothing else but winning the WS. If I were a player, and the Yankees were throwing boatloads of money at me, I'd go, because not only would I get stupid rich, but I'd be on a team that was oommitted to winning it all.

Coincidentally, this may have the message that RAJ was sending when he signed Howard to the extension, but that's just my opinion.

Pitching Probables for the rest of the season:

1 Sept- Oswalt
2 Sept- Blanton
3 Sept- Hamels
4 Sept- Halladay
5 Sept- Kendrick
6 Sept- Oswalt and Spot Starter (my guess is Worley)
7 Sept- Blanton
8 Sept- Hamels
9 Sept- Off Day
10 Sept- Halladay
11 Sept- (Skip Kendrick) Oswalt
12 Sept- Blanton
13 Sept- Kendrick
14 Sept- Hamels
15 Sept- Halladay
16 Sept- Off Day
17 Sept- Oswalt
18 Sept- Blanton
19 Sept- Kendrick
20 Sept BRAVES- Hamels
21 Sept BRAVES- Halladay
22 Sept BRAVES- Oswalt
23 Sept- Off Day
24 Sept- Blanton
25 Sept- (Skip Kendrick) Hamels
26 Sept- Halladay
27 Sept- Oswalt
28 Sept- Kendrick
29 Sept- Blanton
30 Sept- Off Day
1 October @ BRAVES- Hamels
2 October @ BRAVES- Halladay
3 October @ BRAVES- Oswalt

So in essense you push kendrick back twice to get H20 to pitch all 6 games against the braves

Including the last two games in august
Halladay and Oswalt have 7 starts each
Hamels and Blanton have 6 starts each
Kendrick has 5 starts ( at LA, Brewers, at FLA, Washington, at Washington)

So Kendrick turns into an average 5th starter in the league in September, after being above average in other months. Sounds ok with me.

Fatalotti: I do think it's reasonable. I would also note, as Sophist does with KK, that Blanton hasn't been uniformly terrible in September. He's had one absolutely terrible September (in 2006), a couple that were pretty bad (including last year), and a bunch that were middle-of-the-road. Recall that he pitched pretty well for us in the 2008 post-season, which tends to refute the notion that he wears down late in the season.

Agreed BAP, but his August numbers are still pretty ridiculous. For all intents and purposes, he's pitched like a number 1 in August throughout his career. I say this without having gone through all his August year individually; just his aggregate August numbers.

If he does emulate his August numbers, and our top 3 emulate their September numbers, we might well win 72% of our starts and finish with 96 wins.

That would be swell.

no name fame,

I would venture that with that last series, it would be Halladay, Hamels Oswalt. You can get Halladay on normal rest for the first game, then Hamels on 6 days rest, then Oswalt on 5 days rest. If you structure it this way, you would have Halladay ready to pich a tiebreaker game on short rest, or the first game of the NLDS on regular rest.

Anyone else notive the national media love-fest for Brett Myers since he went to Houston? There's no doubt he's having a better than average season, he always had the stuff, but he still has the knack to get rattled by a big inning and lose his concentration on the mound, and will never be as good as he could be.

Joe Cowley - Um, no Brett Myers no longer has the knack of getting rattled by the big inning. In fact, he has barely given up a big inning all season and his ERA is currently under 3.00.

So, since you've been watching him all season, when exactly did you see him get rattled. Because I've watched a bunch of his starts on the MLB package and haven't seen it at all.

In fact, if Myers were pitching for the Phillies instead of either Blanton or Kendrick right now, I think the Phillies would be the insanely prohibitive WFS favorites and the Braves would be in their rearview mirror already.

"Anyone else notive the national media love-fest for Brett Myers since he went to Houston?"

I notice it just because I notice how hypocritical the media is. They were jumping all over Brett when he beat his wife and now they're slobbering all over him because he's doing well.

Not that I expect the media (especially the sports media) to be anything besides hypocritical. It's just always amusing when you see it.

"In fact, if Myers were pitching for the Phillies instead of either Blanton or Kendrick right now, I think the Phillies would be the insanely prohibitive WFS favorites and the Braves would be in their rearview mirror already"

I'm laughing imagining Myers on this team and Sweeney attempting to give him a hug.

I agree he is definitely a better option then both Blanton and Kendrick, as are dozens of other arms at this point the way they've been throwing. I just see it as a career year. Him as a number

As far as the media hypocrisy, that's a given no matter what.

If no name fame is correct, then what number of wins can rationally can be expected in the games they start?


Halladay 5 - 2 ?
Oswalt 5 - 2 ?
Hamels 4 - 2 ?
Blanton 4 - 2 ?
Kendrick 2 - 3 ?
Spot 0 - 1?

That shakes out to 20 - 12 the rest of the way:

93 - 69.

If that happens then IMHO it will definitely be the games against the Braves that determine the division.

Also, I'm not sure 93 wins will guarantee a playoff spot.

It would be best to beat the Braves.

Myers was a little too red in the neck for many Philly fans, not to mention Rube. Better that we spend most of the year desperate for decent pitching.

Maybe Myers is pitching well because there is absolutely no pressure whatsoever to perform?

meant him as a number one on that staff based on this season alone is pretty amazing, then again since we have their number one by far there's really no options.

good point about the lack of pressure, and Philly fans' image of him, although like Jenkins' huge hit and Stairs' homer in the 2008 post season, Myers AB against the Brewers will erase a lot of bad feelings toward him no matter what, and elevate him as far as how good of a player he actually was over the long haul.

"Myers was a little too red in the neck for many Philly fans, not to mention Rube. "

Meh. I don't know if it was the red neck aspect as much as the hair trigger temper/beat your wife aspect.

Seems like the FO over the last few years is really emphasizing character and getting rid of all the "bad" guys.

I can't take this love for Brett Myers. I'm quite content with him not being on the Phillies and I think NEPP's point above is worthy of consideration. Sometimes it is right to simply move on from a player. It was that time for the Phillies and Myers.

As SP, one could argue that Myers and Blanton have had pretty similar results the last several years.

That said, Myers was coming off of hip surgery last season.

I suspect that the Phils, with Blanton already in the fold, weren't willing to take the risk.

Heather - if you imagine that professional athletes are normally choir boys, you haven't been paying attention. As a group we're talking about a bunch of undereducated, arrested adolescents who been assured they're wonderful since a young age and showered with lots of $$.

From 2004 - 2008 Myers' ERA+: 103

From 2005 - 2009 Blanton's ERA+: 103


[I excluded Myers 2009 results because of the injury/surgery.]

"Heather - if you imagine that professional athletes are normally choir boys, you haven't been paying attention. As a group we're talking about a bunch of undereducated, arrested adolescents who been assured they're wonderful since a young age and showered with lots of $$."

Where did I saw I thought pro atheletes were choir boys? I just said the FO made a concerted effort to get rid of the "Bad" guys...I.e. criminals.

myers was not liked at all in the clubhouse sans two exceptions, madson and blanton. no one else could stand the guy and that is the truth

Not so sure about criminal. Whatever he did to his wife he was never convicted for so it's still "alleged"

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