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Monday, August 30, 2010

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It's hard to be so high on Cosart when he hasn't even started throwing after elbow problems. Singleton has fizzled since mid-season, but he's still so young that maybe it's a conditioning issue that will get ironed out in time. At this point, it's hard to find a bona fide top prospect, but considering that the highest upside guys are so young, the Phillies may be rich this time next year.

The CL deal is saddening. Esp because the mariners got Justin Smoak as their return for the guy. JC Ramirez may be the only prospect out of the three left in the organization this time next year...yikes

I'm confused. There are something like 35 Beerleaguer commenters who have labeled Tagg Bozied "The Solution," right?

Ouch. Some typos in the original. Fixed I think.

Cole, the bona fide top prospect is the 4th outfielder on the big league team right now.

Yeah, spitz, but you know that doesn't count. I think Colvin should have been higher, but the article says in the body that he's four. I guess he mixed him up with Trevor May.

I know the Phils get a break because of all the trades, but they've spent a lot of money signing the Browns, Colvins, Cosarts and Walters, so the standard is high.

Also, Tyson Gillies shouldn't be s-canned quite yet. He has everything to lose, so if he's healthy, he could be Sept. callup next year.

Where's Colvin? Has to be in the top 5, no?

Worley over Colvin makes no sense.

Also, relevant to this thread is this section from a piece on BP today on Trevor May:

Trevor May, RHP, Phillies, (Low-A Lakewood)

At 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds, May has a classic power-pitching build to go with a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96 and two quality secondary offerings in his power curve and an advanced changeup for his age (he's only 20). He had massive control problems earlier in the spring, but the Phillies worked with him. Since July 1, he's tied for the minor-league lead in strikeouts—but more importantly for the personnel folks in Philly, he's only walked 19 in that span. Despite the early-season stumble, no arm in the system matches his upside.

Singleton wasn't going to maintain that half season form. His overall line in the end will be very promising. High BB, low K, power, and in Lakewood at 18.

Worley at 3rd is an interesting choice.

Clout might find that interesting since he argued earlier this season that May was a pretty low-upside prospect. The experts disagree.

Kevin Goldstein said today that May is the Phils best pitching prospect(a hair better than Cosart)

Since July 1, May is tied for the lead in strikeouts across the minors. He says the usual stuff about May, but adds two things that surprised me: 1) KG calls his secondary offerings “quality” and his changeup in particular he calls “advanced” considering he’s 20; 2) KG says of May “no arm in the system matches his upside.” :

Aumont should be a top 20 guy too. No one likes the Lee return but as a young power arm, pre-season top 100, and former first round pick, his season hasn't hurt him enough to drop him behind some of the guys in Drago's bottom 20.

(above cut and pasted from a PP poster's paraphrase of KG's insider piece)

It was already shaping up as a lost year for Gillies before his cocaine arrest, but I have to think the arrest impacted his rating.

MG, you'll wait to "see how things turn out"?

That's pretty loosy-goosey, no?

"see how things turn out"?

How about sticking your neck out and defining some criteria that you would consider as being "Successful Bullpen Management" (SBM).

Does the bullpen have to be perfect the rest of the season for you to consider it "successful"?

Or, would you rather not take a concrete position, thereby allowing yourself to frolic on BL, claiming superior knowledge to Charlie - clairvoyance even ("he should have KNOWN") - and have the ability to nitpick at every decision he makes that doesn't work out?


Before the season is over, Charlie is going to insert a reliever who gets shelled, leave a starter in too long who gets shelled, and pull a starter too early. I can practically guarantee it.


As I posted previously on this thread, the bullpen is 5 - 2 in August, with a 3.21 ERA in 72 IP.

So, MG, what do you sonsider SBM? Is one failure too many?

BedBeard, Gillies may wind up doing time on the coke posession.

That would not be good for his baseball career. One wonder whether there's some kind of negotiation going on behind the scenes to reduce the charges?

why did they bring bruce sutter on so late in the season to help with matheison and other guys at double A?

I think Worley at 3 is awful.

"Cup of Coffee" might as well be his middle name, although even that might be shooting too high for him - since that would imply he gets more than a few over his career.

I should clarify that Worley at #3 is awful as a choice - AND awful for the state of the Phillies' calibur of high end prospects for him to even be in consideration.

Tyson Gillies is not going to be doing any time over the coke charge. The only way he does time is if his lawyer ham-hands the case trying to get him off (since you can drive a car through the holes in the case--how is he in possession if it is not on his person or on his property or seen disposing of it?). Hey, he may have priors, but if he doesn't, it gets bumped down to a misdemeanor charge, and he enters some kind of first offenders' program that has his record expunged in a couple of years.

So Rube's fire sale to Seattle netted him nothing. Shocker.

curt: Yea, the absense of aumont on the 2010 top prospect list from the reading eagle is the final chapter on that trade.

curt, are you willing to take the position that the prospects we got for Cliff Lee are all busts now, and will be in the future?

awh - I take it you think the trade of a top ML pitcher for some dudes who have a small and shrinking chance of ever playing in the majors, is a good trade?

I'd be shocked if Gillies ended up doing hard time... unless there's a criminal past we don't know about.

The question is how the Phils will handle him moving forward. He wouldn't be the first guy to be given a second chance, but I'm not sure the Phils are interested in giving 2nd or 3rd chances.

Finally, it's laughable to suggest (as someone on BL just did) that Phillipe Aumont will be out of the organization at this time next year. But Beerleaguer does excel in hyperbole!

Whether the trade was good or bad, there was a little more to it than a straight up trade of that top ML pitcher for those dudes.

Aumont belongs in the top 20 somwhere. He might even belong higher than Ramirez who, for all the talk about his nice strikeout/walk ratio, is still sporting a hideous 5.45 ERA at Reading. Personally, I'd still put Gillies in the top 20 too. He was considered one of our top 5 prospects before this year & he played so little this year that it's hard to put much stock in his numbers at all. Of course, the coke bust didn't help.

Worley at 3 is ridiculous.

Not a good trade but the book is far from closed on Ramirez and Aumont at least.

If Aumont had been the Phils 1st round pick 11th overall, with his pre-2010 and Clearwater performance, he'd still be top 10-15 in the system according to most lists.

Colvin, May, and Biddle all have more upside than Worley, but I think Drago is making a statement about actual performance. Worley is the only top arm (2x TJ Mathieson aside) with success at AA and, in limited innings, even better numbers at AAA.

Most will still say Colvin and May are better prospects, but I bet fear of overhyping the A+ guys played a role. As well as the fact that Drago sees more of Worley and Garcia in Reading.

Well, I don't pretend to know much about our Low A talent, but I'm inclined to rely more on the "Team media insiders and regional beat writers were polled" than the hopes and dreams of BLers.

Curt: See, there's your mistake. Not pretending you know much. You've gotta do that or you'll never make it on BL. When in doubt, exaggerate, and you'll do fine.

curt, you didn't answer my question.


However, I am not afraid to answer yours:

no, curt. Not ever having seen any of the prospects in question play, I have no opinion as to whether they'll make it to the majors. I'm also aware that many prospects take longer to develop, some taking into their mid and even late 20's before they break through with any sustained success (see: Happ, J.A., Victorino, S., Werth, J., Ibanez, R., Ruiz, C., Francisco, B., Durbin, C., Utely, C., Floyd, G., Youkilis, K., Stairs, M. and many, many others).

From what I've read, the prospects the Phillies got back all have raw tools - live arms, great speed, etc. - which they may still be able to harness like the guys I listed above.


So, I'm not ready to call the trade a bust...yet.

As I asked, are you?

Oh, and Ishmael, I guess I made the same mistake curt made?

awh: No, my comment was strictly tongue-in-cheek. I certainly learn more lurking here at BL from the majority of you posters than I do anywhere else.

jason.tp: I don't agree with Worley at #3, but your "cup of coffee" being a bit too high for him, is pretty dumb. You're normally better than that.

God, can we stop whining about You Know Who...

We have Oswalt for 2 years...enjoy it.

No fun rooting for the Mets to beat the Braves this week (with their 3.5 K9 starter), but the Mets are 6-5 against the Braves this year. That's something.

And Jurrgens got knocked around pretty well last time around.

awh - no, you answered your own question, not mine. You evidently think the trade of Cliff Lee for some dudes will be vindicated if one of the dudes turns out to be the rare late developing prospect. However, since by definition it is impossible to know who's going to develop late, it's not a smart use of a rare and valuable resource to trade a top ML pitcher for lottery tickets.

Aumont is 21 and Ramirez 22. They're not old

sophist: Yeah, "ridiculous" was probably the wrong word choice. A better word would have been "generous," in that it's definitely a higher rating than most scouting systems would give him.

Nonetheless, while Worley's upside is certainly not on a par with the likes of May, Colvin, Biddle, or even guys like Aumont & Ramirez, his chances of actually having a meaningful major league career are decidedly better. There's also something to be said for the fact that he has really improved his numbers this year & has more or less sustained that improvement even after jumping from AA to AAA.

Listen... those who worship at the cleats of Cliff Lee will always believe what happened last offseason was the worst thing in the history of professional sports and, perhaps, the worst thing in the history of the world.

There's no convincing them otherwise, so there's no point in trying.

Worley is a lot closer to having an MLB career than any other starter in our system. His stuff might be so-so but he could theoretically end up as a Joe Blanton type pitcher in the back of a rotation.

Worley is the only starter who can help next season but he will not be an ace. Colvin and May have electric stuff but are 3 years away. Swap Worley and Colvin and the list is better.

Smoak has looked pretty bad so far. BA under .200 but showed 20+ HR power. He is not doing much better in the minors since traded. Not saying he will not improve (Mike Schmidt hit .196 his first season) but so might Aumont.

Jesus Montero in the other hand ...

sophist - awh didn't say they were old. He said: "many prospects take longer to develop, some taking into their mid and even late 20's before they break through with any sustained success"

BAP, yeah, either generous to Worley or skeptical of early success at A.

****Colvin and May have electric stuff but are 3 years away. ****

IF...3 years away IF they pan out and stay healthy. Upside has to come into such a debate but I can totally see where Drago is coming from with Worley. He's put up pretty respectable numbers in the high minors at Age 22. He deserves some credit for that.

NEPP, exactly.

We wouldn't have had Lee more than one season. He would have been gone ala Jayson Werth. And we wouldn't have had BOTH Lee and Oswalt.

Personally, I wouldn't have traded Lee, but things haven't worked out too badly so far. Phils lead the Wild Card and have the best 1-3 rotation in MLB right now.

My issue is with guys who pronouce the trade a bust - and therefore the prospects received as busts - less than a year after the trade was made. And, the 3 prospects are only 21, 21 ane 22 respectively.

I guess there's no pleasing some people.

Because of video games, the internet and the TV tuner they're so instant gratification oriented they probably can't help it. It's also why they whine after every loss in a 162 game season, when winning 100 games has occured less often than the number of WS champions.

But then, they like to get their pleasure so quickly their probably very familiar with premature e^%&)@#$!)

;)

I'm guessing many of you have already closed the book on that Bobby Abreu trade, too, right?

Guess what...

Jesus Sanchez had a 2.99 ERA as a 22-yo at Clearwater.

Phils might win this deal just yet!

curt, sure, I was just saying that we're not at the late development stage yet. Aumont will be 22 next year and doesn't have many pro seasons behind him. A breakthrough 2011 from Aumont wouldn't surprise a lot of people.

Bobby who?

Breakthrough year for Aumont? About as likely as a breakout year for Urbina.

CJ, Monasterious faces Kendrick tomorrow.

NEPP, do you really believe that? A former first round pick, top 100 BA pre 2010, 10.4 K9 in 2009. I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, but it's not as unlikely as, say, the Mets winning the NL East.

****Monasterious faces Kendrick tomorrow****


"I watched as the Lamb opened the first of the seven seals. Then I heard one of the four living creatures say in a voice like thunder, 'Come!'"

Blanton was considered a much better prospect than Worley in the minors. He was a first-round pick who appeared on multiple Top 100 Prospect lists.

CJ - Bobby Abre-who?

I continue to maintain that, eventually, Domingo Santana may start appearing on this list.

Stutes is not a Top 20 and will disappear once the current class has some actual minor league action under their belt.

Dugan. Hmmmm... Interesting. The next Greg Golson?

****NEPP, do you really believe that?****

No, not really. I think there's an okay chance that he puts it together next year. People like to forget that he was a very raw prospect and he was limited to short bullpen outings in Seattle's system. He might just be a late bloomer. He's still really young, especially for a Canadian with little baseball experience.

NEPP - Funny Revelation reference.

Aslo: if Worley's gonna be Blanton, he's got a helluva lot of Krispy Kreme's to pack in.

****Blanton was considered a much better prospect than Worley in the minors. ****

I agree...but its not unheard of for a guy like Worley to end up as a servicable back of the rotation guy.

Personally, I think he ends up as more of a Chad Durbin type reliever in the end but even Durbin was a spot starter for a few years before we converted him to pure relief.

"A breakthrough 2011 from Aumont wouldn't surprise a lot of people. "

Perhaps, but we can say with certainty that it would surprise the "Team media insiders and regional beat writers." And the Mariners, of course.

Wow, Charlie broke up Utley & Howard:

Rollins 6, Utley 4, Polanco 5, Howard 3, Werth 9, Ibanez 7, Victorino 8, Ruiz 2, Halladay 1

awh - So you don't think they could've gotten more for Lee than three guys with no AA experience.

Interesting.

Dugan crushed the Gulf Coast ... in 42 PA. Golson never hit like that I wouldn't think, even in limited PA.

curt, nice try. Read what I posted and don't put words in my mouth.

First, you need to get your facts straight. One, go figure out the age the average players breaks into MLB.

Then define "rare late developing prospect" Then see if you can compare the two.

One thing I have learned from this exchange is that you don't know very much about prospect development.

Oh, and you still didn't answer the question: Bust or no bust.

Coward.

Golson was, of course, in Lakewood for his Age 19 season...so there's that.

Its a bad comparison because Dugan isn't really a speed guy like Golson despite them both coming up as CFs.

curt, I'm not sure that's true. Like I said, if Aumont were the 11th pick for the Phils and not that underachieving Canadian acquired for the beloved Cliff Lee, I bet he's still ranked in the top 10-15 on a lot of these lists.

awh - I explained to you why your question was irrelevant. Sorry if it went over your head.

Aumont low end is still pretty good. He could easily be reconverted to short relief with his stuff and be back hitting 97 with a heavy sinker & curveball combo that he flashed in the WBC.

Howard - (weeping in dugout) No...no...

Utley - (entering from the clubhouse) What's up, Big Guy?

Howard - (blubbering) It's...it's... {breaks into sobbing and points at line-up card}

Utley - (looks at card) What? What?! WHAT???!!! (Then, like Brando screaming "Stella") CHOLLLL-LLLIE!!! CHOLLLLLLL-LLLLLLIIIEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Chollie - wut?

Utley - (tearfully) You can't...can't...

Rollins - (intervening) It's only for a game, Uts. You're still both in the same line-up. Take it easy. Relax.

Howard - But...but...we've never been apart before.

Utley - Are you sure it's just for a game? It's not, like, something personal??

Rollins - It's okay. Really.

Polanco - (entering dugout) Hey, Big Man...I'm looking forward to getting CLOSE to you.

Utley and Howard break into uncontrollable sobbing.

That's the thing with Aumont... he's got two paths to the majors. First, the tougher path as a starter which may be dependent upon his health (although haven't heard anything about that supposed hip condition since he came over). Second, there's no question he's got a possible future as a power arm reliever which may actually get him to the majors more quickly.

Nice, Andy, but your story cried out for a big Sweeney hug.

Yeah, Sophist. I know. Dugan is a strange case. I don't know. The way he crushed rookie league is convincing. But it's still rookie league and a very small sample. I have trouble with him breaking the top twenty based on that, when Santana beat up rookie league a couple years younger last year. I guess we'll see.

In re: awh and the "trade baiting" I was doing. I was just kidding around with the clout tactic. I do believe RAJ coulda done better on the trade, but we're in better shape now anyway.

Thanks, Ollie. I'll remember our resident teddy bear next time.

sophist - you are entitled to your opinion on your hypothetical. I am entitled to observe that the "Team media insiders and regional beat writers were polled" did not in fact put him on the list.

He did mention in an interview after the trade that he feels discomfort (but not pain) in his hip but that it was "no big deal".


I'd rather they just bite the bullet at this point and convert him. If it was anyone else, he'd already be a reliever. However, its important to remember that him starting in the minors really has no relevance on his development as a MLB level reliever as most MLB relievers started in the minors. The sudden focus on developing guys purely as a reliever is a pretty new concept (one that I blame on Billy Beane/Huston Street personally).

curt - that sounds way too reasonable.

awh - Of course Cholly will make decisions you can second-guess him on and no I don't remotely criticize 'every bullpen choice he makes.' Majority of the time out if something doesn't work out it is because the player doesn't execute.

When I think he does something that is foolish like using his best reliever up 5 runs in a game to get 3 outs so he isn't avaiable the next night and when he had 2 viable alternatives, I will say so.

Simple question - Are the Phils better enabled to win with Madson not available tonight? Yes or No.

This article is fairly dated but still sums up pretty much how I feel about Cholly as a manager.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=166

Halladay will go 9 so it won't matter.

Didn't Blanton have a whole chapter about him in Moneyball? As I recall he was the elite prospect who also had really awesome college stats - the convergence point of traditional scouting and Billy Beane ball.

Can't remember the last time I was pulling for the Mets to win. Their SP isn't bad, but it seems hopeless with that lineup.

I think Blanton was the convergence of a 1st round prospect and an Old Country Buffet.

Blanton had excellent minor league numbers as well. His first few years with 9+ K9 and sub 1.5 BB9. Top 50 BA prospect in 2004.

Tray - Not quite a whole chapter but he was mentioned predominantly.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/fullcredits#cast

My favorite is the random baseball players who are cast in the movie including:

Jeremy Giambi
Jim Mecir
Mike Magnante?!

So on prospects, where do you think Kyle Drabek will rank next year? He repeated AA but he was pretty impressive in doing so (2010 Eastern League Pitcher of the Year and all). And he's just 22. Granted, he's not ours anymore but I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped from his #25 overall ranking simply due to repeating.

NEPP - Not with a bunch of the guys ahead of him graduating from prospect status (Strasburg, Heyward, Stanton, Matusz, Posey, Alvarez, Feliz, Santana, Smoak, Bumgarner, Castro, Logan Morrison, maybe even Hellickson and Brown -- all in top 20 and probably no longer prospects).

Good point Sophist...so he probably moves up to the Top 20ish range. One thing that he did accomplish by repeating is he learned how to get LHBs out. He really struggled with that in 08 and 09 in our system. The Jays were really smart to be conservative with him and develop him the right way. They did the exact opposite of what we did with Aumont basically and he really put together a great year. As a 23 year old next year, he'll be pushing for a rotation spot by the 2nd half if all goes well.

He's gonna be a good young pitcher for them so it was a good trade for both sides essentially.

The Braves are who we thought they were. If you want to crown 'em, then crown their ass. They're who we thought they were, and we let 'em off the hook.

Can we take the crotchless panties off please?

There are still 32 games to play. Were the Mets what we thought they were in 2007 when they were leading the division by 7 games with 17 to play?

This constant fatalism in the face of the Braves strikes me as either a serious lack of intestinal fortitude or a complete ignorance of 130 years of baseball history.

I can't help but wonder why Amaro didn't go after Brandon Morrow when he dealt Lee. Morrow was traded a few days later to Toronto. Amaro is becoming like Ed Wade, but with a huge payroll. It's a recipe for failure.

I forgot to add, can Dom Brown hit a pitch with a wrinkle? Or can he even hit? He's typical of Phils hitters. Only look for the fastball. Look silly on everything else. And then sit on the bench.

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