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Thursday, August 26, 2010

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After stellar outings by Blanton, Hamels and Halladay, Kendricks will probably give up six and Phils' bats will come alive and pull out the W.

At least he split up Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Should make late game decisions for the other manager that much tougher.

This feels like a loss.

Bats will come alive during the day and beautiful weather.

BAP - Yes, yes it does.

What's the ceremony for? Scott Barry's last game in Philly for the year?

re-posted from previous thread

"And, oh yeah, BP Postseason odds drop again, now at 35%. Posted by: EastFallowfield | Thursday, August 26, 2010 at 08:19 AM"

Anyone else having doubts about the phillies reaching the post season? If they make it - will they be limping in? (Psychologically speaking)

Re: last night’s game, besides the Werth HR, the team has not hit worth a D****. IMO, the 3rd base pick-off of BenFran was equally as bad affect as the Werth pick-off.

It's an embarrassment to have pitching performances by H2O, & even Blanton – yet have nothing to show for it. To lose 3 crucial games to Meyers, Happ and Norris is a definition of embarrassment. Meyers sticking out his tongue after the Werth pick-off shows me how much he's grown up since leaving Philly.

Atlanta does not play today, but they play at home against a depleted FLA, so the time to gain ground on the Braves (phase1) is pretty much over and will have to wait for phase2 which starts with start of the next braves- phils series

To reiterate: I think H & U s/ have stayed on the DL to rehab a little longer to get their timing back and shake off the rust. Coming back early & playing like this isn't doing the team any favors.

Posted by: stuckinatrsainbetwphilly&nyc | Thursday, August 26, 2010 at 01:06 PM And, oh yeah, BP Postseason odds drop again, now at 35%. Posted by: EastFallowfield | Thursday, August 26, 2010 at 08:19 AM"

Anyone else having doubts about the phillies reaching the post season? If they make it - will they be limping in? (Psychologically speaking)

Re: last night’s game, besides the Werth HR, the team has not hit worth a D****. IMO, the 3rd base pick-off of BenFran was equally as bad affect as the Werth pick-off.

It's an embarrassment to have pitching performances by H2O, & even Blanton – yet have nothing to show for it. To lose 3 crucial games to Meyers, Happ and Norris is a definition of embarrassment. Meyers sticking out his tongue after the Werth pick-off shows me how much he's grown up since leaving Philly.

Atlanta does not play today, but they play at home against a depleted FLA, so the time to gain ground on the Braves (phase1) is pretty much over and will have to wait for phase2 which starts with start of the next braves- phils series

To reiterate: I think H & U s/ have stayed on the DL to rehab a little longer to get their timing back and shake off the rust. Coming back early & playing like this isn't doing the team any favors.

SORRY FOR DOUBLE POST

oh, jeez.

enjoy the game, folks.

Delay? Isn't it sunny?

The losses were bad, maybe inexcusable, but to say that Phils next opportunity to gain ground is only during the head-to-head games suggests that the results are preordained, when in fact the past three days have shown otherwise, both in our series with the Astros and in the Braves series. If we knew the results in advance we wouldn't bother watching. That's what makes sports the ultimate reality show. Don't forget all the Phils' comebacks in recent years and stop whining, please!

We might have a chance today - only 1 Phillie castoff playing for the Stros, and he isnt pitching. Lucky to miss Figgie.

"Anyone else having doubts about the phillies reaching the post season?"

I definitely have my doubts about the Phillies reaching the post-season. But I have even greater doubts about the methodology by which BP calculates their probabilities. They seem to change radically by the day.

Is anyone else concerned that, with roster expansions, almost every team will be able to stack its lineup with left-handed hitters against KK? On another subject, is anyone else concerned that KK is yet again struggling to throw strikes in the 1st inning?

I don't know how our postseason odds at this point can be lower than 50% when, as of the start of the day, we were leading the Wild Card.

Phils behind in the first, as usual.

game=over.

You guys feel like a loss.

And I wonder where the front office bought the stuff for the pre-game ceremony? There is no way they spent a ton of money because they are so cheap.

Wonder what the Phils RD is in the first inning this year.

Here were go again....................

Astros are 15-7 in CBP since opened and Braves are the only NL team with a winning record in CBP (1 game above .500).

Fatalotti: We're tied for the lead so, based on a "random event" model, both SF & the Phillies have 50-50 odds (vis-a-vis each other) of winning the WC. Those odds drop to around 33% when you throw in the Cardinals, who are only 1 game back. They drop to less than 33% when you factor in the Dodgers & Rockies, who are still not quite dead & buried. The odds increase, though, when you factor in maybe a 30 to 40% chance of winning the East. That all evidently comes out to an overall probability of 35%. Again, that's based on a model that assumes subsequent events to be random & makes no assumptions about the quality of the particular teams.

Other than the 2 shutouts by Halladay & Oswalt, when was the last time the Phillies didn't fall behind early in the game? It seems to be a recurring theme.

Gotta score at least 1...

BAP, great point. How is it that every team competing with the Phils for a playoff spot loses (and subsequently also loses a game in which to make up ground) yet the Phils "playoff odds" decreases?? Something doesn't sound right about that.

Astros are 15-7 in CBP since opened and Braves are the only NL team with a winning record in CBP (1 game above .500).

You do realize how awkward that sentence is right?

There's how many AL teams with a winning record at CBP? All of them?

robbed of a double. Credit to the Astros who've been on their game this season.

and by "season" I, of course, mean "series"

I am at work did Rollins chase a bad pitch on a 3-1 count again?

two hard hit outs...

WP: I guess the explanation would be as follows. The odds remain constant (which is to say below 50%) vis-a-vis the Giants & Cardinals. The get slightly worse vis-a-vis the Rockies, who gained a game on us. They also get slightly worse vis-a-vis the Braves, since thir lead stayed the same & one additional day has ticked off the clock.

That's the way this series is going... drilled a couple balls and there's two outs.

Herndon lost the other night in extras without a ball leaving the infield.

Baseball is a funny game.

no, he ripped a ball down the 3B line that Johnson made a nice play and throw on to get Rollins by less than a step.

Good start.

In play, out(s)

In play, out(s)

In play, out(s)

Franske, reading the stro's lineup: Cliff Lee playing LF and batting 4th.

KK -23 PITCHES 1 RUN
WW -14 PITCHES 0 RUN

The Astros clearly have min control over the Phillies and the umpiring crew; only explanation for this series thus far. They have laid eggs inside their brains.

Surprised to see Brett Wallace is only hitting .188. He's rapped the ball pretty well the past couple nights.

Brett Wallace didn't even start the other night. He's not playing well.

I know many come on here and say things like "Why is Jimmy swinging at a 2-0 pitch?" Fundamentally, swinging at a 2-0 or 3-0 pitch is really not a bad thing. More often than not you are going to see a fastball in the count, and the Phillies team can really drive fastballs.

The troublesome part is the swings they take in those situations right now. When you are up in the count like that a hitter is supposed to look in a particular zone and swing if the pitch is in that area. Too often right now the Phillies hitters are expanding that zone and swinging at fastballs that are on the outer half of the plate or that they won't be able to do anything with.

Nothing like the 7 and 8 hitters getting on...

Charlie better get the bullpen up early, this isn't looking to good

Truth: Swinging on 2-0, or maybe even 3-0, is fine if there are runners in scoring position. It's not fine if no one's on base.

KK is getting battered. Who would ever have guessed?

Is there anyone who still thinks they'd be more comfortable with Kyle Kendrick starting a playoff game than Joe Blanton?

Didn't think so.

Stros continue to play playoff baseball. If nothing else, a few of our guys might learn something this week.

someone hold JW down and shave off his mutha fkin beard

In play, run(s)

wunderful....


now 3 gmes out

f-in terrific

Since Kendrick doesn't have a middle ground in that he either pitches a great game or a complete dud, I think we all know how this game will end.

Fatalotti, ironically, why is it that everyone but Cholly knows that about KK? If I'm him, as soon as I start to see some hard hit balls in the 1st inning, I'm flagging Dubee over to get on the bullpen phone.

hows the ump's strikezone today? gamecast just showed ball 1 & 3 to howard as being thigh-high right down the middle

Phils need Kendrick to pitch innings. They played a 16 inning game two days ago and are at the beginning of a long stretch without a day off.

I'll be seeing the words "In play: out" in my sleep tonight.

At least Wandy is falling behind every batter.

Yes, because we need to see 3 innings of Herndon today...

Sophist, I'm all for KK throwing some innings, too. But if he's throwing innings and sucks, doesn't that kind of defeat the purpose?

They've hit 4 balls hard if you can't see the game (seems like many can't from the comments). Only Howard's wasn't hit hard.

Come on Werth: how can you be swinging on a 3-1 pitch with the bases empty against a wild pitcher?

WP, long term? No. You can't get your pen up in the second inning.

Wandy is just not throwing strikes, and the Phils are hitting a lot of his stuff hard - just right at people. Game's far from over.

there goes the perfect game.

Maybe the Phillies should claim Manny and have him try to help out.

Joking, of course.

Don't worry guys, the offense will pick up once the weather gets warm. Oh what's that? It's already August 26th? Really? Well damn.

Roy that's not a bad idea...why the hell not.

why are these guys swing in w/ 3-0 and 3-1 counts..

ww wants to walk them - so let him

It's amazing how bad this team can look.

A 3-1 pitch is often a very good pitch to hit. If the pitcher grooves it, I want them swinging.

Phillies batters just want to hit the long ball, the only problem is that they aren't hitting any, so if I am Greg Grosse I am MAKING them swing level!

BAP: Werth swung on a 3-1 count but it was a strike.

it's ok to swing 3-1 or 2-0 even if there is no one on. Like I said though, you need to look in a certain area and the Phillies are not right now. That's one of their issues hitting wise.

Rodrquiez has not been sharp at all in the first two innings. Phils hit ahead in the count, hit a couple of balls hard, and have nothing to show for it.

Sophist, you're right, game is far from over. I just feel like we saw this last Thursday against Sanchez. Nothing but hard hit outs in the first 2 innings, then flailing and futility the next 6 innings, before a 9th inning rally fell woefully short.

Plus, we have KK on the mound, so we needs runs, not the possibility that runs might come, you know.

TK, it's another righty off of the bench. Probably an upgrade over Ben Fran and Mike Sweeney.

$4M though.

Fatalotti - I can pick a game at random to argue my point too.

This team never has been known for its patience at the plate and ability to work the count for walks.

And for everyone clamoring for the offense to get its head out of its collective posterior, its tough to do that with the bat on your shoulder.

I don't have any issue with swinging 3-1 with this lineup. Its been their bread and butter for a couple of years.

It's amazing how bad this team can look.

Even the Rays or Yankees have looked bad in a three-four game stretch at times this year.

So. Kyle Kendrick. Thoughts, anyone?

Sophist, calm down, wasn't arguing. Just pointing out why there's frustration.

If KK stays in the game long enough, Lee might just have his best game of the season.

This is ridiculous. I don't care about saving the pen. The Phillies do not have the luxury of conceding games to rest the pen. The reserves will be here in a few days anyhow.

At this point, it's already too late though. The lead is insurmountable.

Hey, if KK gives up a run an inning, we just need to put up 10 runs. No problem, right? As long as KK is eating innings...

Kyle Kendrick is a #5 pitcher. What is there to really discuss?

The offense is the only thing worth talking about, and only because they can't do anything at all lately.

phlipper: To the same team? A bad team? At home?

WP - Well, if Kendrick pitches 9 innings, yeah. But he won't.

Well, 3 runs is more than the Phillies like to score against the Astros.

Serious question, why not Herndon? Afraid to burn him out, or that he'll do worse?

Roy, you're okay with your #5 pitcher cranking out a game with a 9.00 ERA during a late season playoff push?

Interesting.

Well then, let's talk about this offense.

Actually, we do have a pretty good pitcher who only threw 72 pitches yesterday & is used to throwing around 120.

Jack - I think it goes something like this: "What do you want from your 5th pitcher," Try to enjoy.

Not sure why I'm so cranky today. You'd figure that expectations would have been appropriately adjusted knowing that it was KK during a BPS with Cholly sitting our best hitter right now.

Kendrick+Goosewurst to Houston for Happ.

Jack's on a roll recently. He managed to malign Howard for an incident in which he wasn't even remotely to blame (big surprise there), and now he's back to his other favorite activity: rooting against Kyle Kendrick.

I smell a 5 RBI explosion by Werth and a stunning steal of home.

phlipper: To the same team? A bad team? At home?


That's a good point, TK. I would imagine not.

How much will Kendrick cost in arbitration for next year?

Any thought to non-tendering him? I guess the issue is we don't have a real other contender for 5th starter.

Why did Roy Halladay's kid get an oversized paperweight?

JC - "I smell a 5 RBI explosion by Werth and a stunning steal of home"

Can he do that without having been disciplined for his brain fart the other night?

I smell a 5 RBI explsoion from Werth and a stunning steal of home....

Who knew we'd see the end of one of the great streaks in history today? By posting that comment about Jack, Iceman ended his longstanding, never-to-be broken record of 877 Beerleaguer posts in a row in which he was attacking one of my earlier posts.

Wandy Rodriguez=Bob Feller

This happens every single year with this team. They go through a stretch where you can't possibly imagine them scoring a run again. They got swept by the Astros last year and went on a big scoring drought again at the end of September, during which time a lot of people on BL thought they were going to completely choke away their division lead.

Then they manage to break out of it and everyone says "I don't know why I ever give up on this team." I'll be interested to see in a month how many people will be back on the bandwagon and (again) forget this ever happened.

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