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Thursday, August 19, 2010

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With Roger Clemens indicted today, Barry Bonds is officially off the hook as the scapegoat of the steroid era. As the Phils finish this series with the Giants, I have to wonder how unfair (and yes, I recognize the irony here) it was to Bonds to have his career end the way it did. He wanted to continue playing, even at league minimum, and nobody took him up on it.

I'd bet that even today he'd be a worthwhile late-season pickup for a contender.

The pessimist in me says that since the Braves lost, the Phils will, too - having already won 4 in a row, Cole's lack of run support, gap shrinking too much, etc. - and that the Cardinals will win - having lost 4 in a row.

The optimist in me says with Cole's great pitching, and Chase back in action, and Jimmy on a roll, and Werth breaking his RISP/2 out hex, there's no reason the Phils can't be 1 1/2 games back of the Braves by night's end!

Barry Bonds is a bum. I'm glad his career ended the way it did and, frankly, wish had ended even worse. He epitomizes what was wrong with the steroid era.

CJ: Here here. No sympathy.

Reposted:

"awh -- Wouldn't other metrics (SIERA? ERA+?) for Doc, Roy and Cole betray those relatively low win percentages; especially for Cole Hamels? I'm about to get tossed off of the laptop by my daughter; I'll try to check later.

Regardless, I really think that the best starting 3 in the NL, plus KK at his pluckiest and an occasional gem thrown by KY Joe gets us closer than not to the magical 100 win total."

Posted by: Bruce Ruffin


Bruce, I'll let Sophist answer that question, but there are other factors that influence a SP record other than their own pitching - i.e. bullpen blowing a lead, etc.

So, in light of that, I took a look at the TEAM'S record in GS by H2O. I dropped the pre-2001 record for Halladay, because 2000 was the year he got sent down to get fixed, and I didn't think those numbers would be representative.

Team Record in Games Started:


Doc: 190 - 106, .642
Roy: 177 - 118, .600
Cole: 80 - 60, .571

Combined:

447 - 284, .611

The only one of the three who's TEAM has a better winning percentage than he does - in games he starts - is Hamels.

Now, as I mentioned, there a lot of factors other than the SP performance that goes into a win, but my point is that expecting to WIN 65% of H2O's starts the rest of the season is a little bit of a stretch on my part.

OTOH, maybe I'm selling the KK/JB combo a little short.

Lifetime winning percentage:

KK: 32 - 19, .627
JB: 68 - 60, .531

Team Record in Games Started:

KK: 46 - 29, .613
JB: 95 - 87, .521

Combined:

141 - 116, .549


Therefore, maybe we need to do it this way:

H2O: 26 starts @ .611 = 16 wins.

KK/JB: 15 starts @ .549 = 8 wins.

Spot: 2 starts @ .500 + 1 win.


That come to 25 more wins this season.

93 wins, unless the team continues to play at a clip that's above averages.

I had a buddy of mine text this to me today. I haven't read any blogs here on BL yet today, so I applogize if this was already covered by someone previously:

If the Phillies scored at least 3 runs in every one of Cole's starts this year, his record would be 13-2. If they scored at least 4 in every start he's made, then his record would be 17-1.

And before anyone replies, "And if pigs had wings...", I know. I really just thought that it sort of magnifies what every Phillies fan already knows. Cole needs some lovin from his team. Let's hope he gets some tonight.

Barry Bonds last season: .276/.480/.565. wOBA .429.

Werth's wOBA is .397. That is the highest wOBA on our entire team with 100 minimum plate appearances.

The man was a beast and everything else aside it is simply baffling he was unable to find a job after 2007.

Didn't he once have a season where his OBP was over .600?

Even with PED use, his numbers are staggering.

Mr. Mack, Very good...Let's score some runs

sifl, by all reports, Barry bonds was not the best guy to have around in the clubjouse, and came with A LOT of baggage.

If you were a major league GM would you want that kind of distraction on your team?

sifl, do you believe in karma? If you do, then many would make the case that Bands got exactly what he deserved.

Barry Bonds is the best overall player ever in baseball PEDS or no PEDS.

Baffling why Barry Bonds couldn't get a job after 2007?

1) On November 15, 2007, Barry Bonds was indicted on four counts of perjury and one count of obstruction of justice.
2) Barry Bonds is an insufferable prick in the clubhouse and creates a media circus wherever he goes.
3) Seemingly now off the juice, how could any team be sure he could maintain his level of production particularly considering the kind of contract an ego like Barry Bonds would demand.

The idea that it's "baffling" that he couldn't find a job is, in fact, baffling.

CJ - He didn't get another job simply because teams feared he might very well serve jail-time in the near future and was unwilling to take a pay cut.

Bonds is a prick. Don't think you would get much argument there but he also saved baseball in SF and was a guy I loved to watch hit.

MG: That's possible, but thanks to a self-serving decision to juice, he'll never achieve the mantle of the best to have ever played. He'll forever be known as a cheater who put his personal achievements ahead of his teammates, his fans and the game of baseball.

I rank Bonds and Manny the quitter right next to each other in my modern day sh!tty dude hall of fame. Whatever amazing stuff Barry did, he flushed it all down the crapper with all the bad stuff he did. Even with the "real life" stuff like letting his "friend" take the fall for him and rot in jail for refusing to testify at Barry's behest. As soon as Manny's last contract year is up, he ought to be flushed out like Barry and the Rocket. It is a shame all "103" didn't get exposed.
MLB needs a commish like the NFL has. Even Gary Betman of the NHL has more balls.

Mr. Mack, Stark did something similar on Hamels as one of the 'criminally undersupported starters' or some such. He came up with a 16-4 record if he had won all 10 of his 'criminally undersupported starts.' At least the Cole hate has abated with the excellent season he is having -- the Cole hate, in my opinion, is the most irrational one on this team.

Regarding Bonds, I hate his steroid use because he would've probably been one of the 15 best hitters of the past 60 years without juicing. Dominating while playing it clean would've been a great 'eff you' to the puffed up idiots like Canseco and Sosa. Instead, he rightly became its poster child. Plus, I voraciously bought up every one of that jackass' rookie cards in the late-80s because of his abilities.

MG, smoke some more crack.

You've obviously never heard of guys named Aaron and Williams.

Bonds had a great career up until 1998 after which he's alleged to have steroids. He would have made the HOF if he had retired then.

But take a look at the non-steroid, pre expansion numbers put up by those two guys.

Also, Henry Aaron had 3,000 hits EVEN IF YOU SUBTRACT THE HR's.

Bonds was a great ball player, even before steroids, but he had his 5 most productive years from 35-39, which is historically UNPRECEDENTED.

Very good, HOF pre steroids? Yes.

Best ever?

Not by a long shot.

Look, Bonds is a prick, but so are plenty of guys in baseball (and in finance, and in police stations, and just about everywhere else in this world).

MG, you're completely wrong about the pay cut. Bonds said he'd play for league minimum. Hell, even right now, even off PEDs, I wonder if Bonds could be a powerful bat off the bench. For all I know he's 350 pounds right now and knee deep in a hooker jacuzzi, but considering the fact that we know SO MANY players also cheated, it seems not quite right that Clemens had more encores than Favre and Giambi is still out there every day.

sifl - Bonds was not willing to take a real pay cut to comeback to the Giants even though they were quite interested in bringin in him back.

I realize I am a little late to the game with my comment here, but that 'Stephanie & Kyle Kendrick' website has left me speechless.

I am embarrassed for both of them.

Wow.

J.C. Romero is a bum. One of the "shitty dudes" of all-time. Just a terrible, terrible person

Wait, are we not bashing everyone who took steroids? I thought that's what we were doing here?

Bonds did offer to play for any team at the league minimum, according to his agent.

The Braves have lost; the Phillies don't score for Hamels; and we are facing one of the true Phillie killers in all of baseball. If ever a game felt like a loss, this is it.

Hamels getting squeezed here early.

BB - Wasn't that in in the 08-09 offseason? Thought it was more posturing to make Bonds look like a good guy because you figure that some team wold have take a flyer on him as a DH/marketing fixture in the AL at veteran league minimum.

Phils without Howard: 11 - 3. Wow. There's no cause and effect, but there's certainly no need to rush his rehab.

MG: This article indicates that Bonds was willing to play for the minimum for any team:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3460993

WAY too much optimism. Potent beerleaguer reverse jinx awakens.

Giants with a first inning lead... old hat.

If Hamels struggles tonight, it's going to be hard to get on his case. He's had a bunch of really great starts in a row--every pitcher struggles once in a while, even Halladay.

It's not Cole's fault they've lost most of his starts.

Bonds is a jerk but was a great player who maybe ruined his shot at the HOF by juicing. He was a much better player than McGwire and Sosa but let his ego draw him into the steroids derby. It's all there in "Game of Shadows."

Cole's not very good this inning. Hopefully he settles in.

J.C. Romero is a bum. One of the "shitty dudes" of all-time. Just a terrible, terrible person

Wait, are we not bashing everyone who took steroids? I thought that's what we were doing here?


Really Jack,

You know that JC Romero bought some supplement in GNC. A supplement that was completely legal and not exactly a sterid, but still on th banned list. Yes JC should have gone through the proper channels to check out the supplement.

Meanwhile, Barry Bonds was going to some secretive lab and receiving designer steroids from a company that has been linked to countless athletes doping and several of ther employees spent time in jail as a result of a major federal investigation.

JC was stupid. Barry and many other players were clearly actively cheating.

GNC is not quite BALCO.

A double play here sure would be nice.

Cole not looking good.

Wes, maybe JC was too stupid to take the extra precautionary measures that Bonds took?

jesus -- wtf is going on here? is cole getting squeezed?

Hamels simply hasn't had consistent command with a single pitch so far.

"Not looking good" is the understatement of the century.

The luck of 2009 Hamels is upon us. Broken bat single, A pitch that was low and away roped for a double and a little blooper to Uribe.

Wes Chamberlain: Sure, whatever you say. Romero is a fine guy, but Bonds is a horrible person. Fair enough.

Did you root for Brett Myers? Do you think that beating your wife up is a lesser moral issue than adding some muscle to your body?

No way Sanchez can throw a strike with this zone. Should be a high scoring night.

Like I said, it's hard for me to get worked up over Cole tonight.

He's been so good for a bunch of starts in a row, he was kind of due to struggle. It happens. Whatever.

get the bullpen up and ready early -- cole is going to have easily have way over 30+ pitches this inning

Cole is going to use reverse phychology tonight...

Give up some runs early to force the offense to score for him.

Cole is heady, that way.

is there somewhere to stream this game. my roomate is being a twat and won't get off the tv. I fucking hate top gear.

Alright, 3-0 is not a big deal. It's about damn time the Phillies lit up the scoreboard for Hamels, so get out there and score some runs. Hamels can still get into a groove here and give you 6 innings.

Well Hamels was due for a stinker..sucks he's not allowed to have those though because the offense hasn't scored for him in forever

awh -- More family vacation stuff tonight. However, awesome analysis! I'm more encouraged than ever we can squeeze out 1 more win that "Whiskers'" employer.

BTW, Phillies ball club: SCORE SOME BLEEPIN' RUNS FOR COLE HAMELS!!

Oh please. He was NOT getting squeezed. He was missing the strike zone by a good 2 feet -- except for when he was laying a meatball right over the middle of the plate.

Bonds was just padding his stats.
Seriously, he was arguably the best player in the last 20-25 years.

Sanchez gives up .8H/9, yet has a WHIP of 1.31. Strange.

Seems like Cholly' starting to actually enjoy messing around with the lineup card.

Looks like the Phillies are going to use the patient approach tonight.

Great AB by Shane. Yet you put him in the leadoff spot, and he pops up first pitch. So weird.

Great AB Vic.
Lousy AB Polly.

Polly wasn't in the room when they discussed the game plan.

Jack, reminds of Madson in the 8th versus the 9th

It's rare to criticize him, but terrible job by Polanco there.

love polanco, but really?

Hopefully Hamels bears down and keeps the game close. It may take the Phillies a few innings to get to Sanchez.

A sweep here + the Giants remaining schedule puts them on the periphery of the playoff picture.

The Phillies can't hit Sanchez. Didn't hit him the last time they faced him. Didn't hit him the time before that. At least they have 6 right-handers in the lineup tonight. Might not have been a bad idea to make it 7, by starting Francisco.

I think Cole checked out that Kendrick wedding website... looks very shaken up.

Awesome, Vic.

David Herndon liked that catch. That's why they kept him. For his smile.

That's a great catch by Vic but Cole is pitching absolute batting practice.

Nice quick inning.

Lefties with good stuff tend to neutralize our lineup pretty easily.

That's true for most teams, I'm sure (and why a good lefty pitcher is one of the most valued commodities in baseball), but it's especially true for the Phillies, for whatever reason.

Not really sure why Ibanez is starting tonight.

Jack, sounds like you are making a case for keep He Who Shall Be Nameless.

Jack - Me neither. This is the exact type of starter (lefty who throws his share of 90+ MPH fastballs & changeups) that has generally given him trouble all year.

Meant slider.

I hope Hamels can make it through six. I'm not really in the mood to see Danys Baez tonight. Then again, I'm not really in the mood to see Danys Baez on any night.

Fatalotti, as long as Chad "China Doll" Durbin is not used, I think the Beerleaguer Republic will stay happy.

He's just not getting his pitches down.

Ok, if Cholly is playing to win this game, he needs to make a pitching chance now. Cole has nothing tonight. It happens.

Ugh. Not an easy catch but Vic could have caught that.

Posey has impressed me this series so far. He has a pretty swing showing some good plate disclipine and coverage.

BTW Old Phan:

I've found myself regularly referring to Rollins as "Mr. Roll" -- thank you for that!

My inner pessimist has pushed my inner optimist out the door now.

Spitz: Well, true, lefty starters with good stuff AND great command are among the most valuable commodities in baseball.

But if you gotta re-stock the cupboard, you gotta do it, you know?

bap: You're crazy. There's no possible way that David Herndon gives the Phillies a better chance to win this game than Cole Hamels right now.

Some guy in the crowd just yelled "throw it higher" after that swing by Uribe. That made me laugh.

Jack: Hmm, well maybe you have a point. I was thinking we should bring in Figueroa.

It is still early but down 4-0 against a guy they have really struggled to hit the past 2 years and a team with a very good bullpen is a tough hill to climb.

Need to hope that Sanchez has one of his patented wild innings where he walks a few guys and Phils take advantage.

They are hitting the Colester hard tonight. Let's see some disciplined ABs. 4 run deficit ain't nothin.

Anybody else annoyed at the ump's slow call for strike three?

This feels like a kick in the balls.

dl, no baseball game feels like that.

I wasn't actually thinking of Herndon. I was thinking of a couple innings from Durbin & Contreras. I realize we have no days off for 3 weeks. That's why I wrote the caveat "if Cholly is playing to win." If winning today's game is priority number one, you can't just leave the starter in when he's getting plastered. This score could easily be worse were it not for Vic's great catch & a couple of bombs that just hooked foul.

MG - season nothwithstanding, I wouldn't exactly rate the SFG bullpen as "very good" during this recent stretch. Haven't we tacked on late runs in the first two games of this series?

I feel a big-head big-fly coming up. Who's with me?!

OP- There's a baseball game on?

BAP, China Doll can only pitch once every week, lets Cholly wants to feel the ire of BL.

I guess this is officially a Cole clunker now. I am losing my optimism at this point...especially when I see Herndon up in the BP.

This is the kind of outing you saw coming from Cole at some point. At least the Braves lost so if we don't come back here we are not really losing any ground on them.

Herndon was having trouble out there remembering what hand to put the glove on.

5-0, getting kind of ugly. Would've been nice to have swept.

Jack: Actually, David Herndon could do better than this.

Panda could be Mini Me to Prince Fielder's Dr. Evil.

This is why you play the games. Before this series, many were probably counting the Hames and Oswalt starts as wins, and the Blanton start as a loss. So far, Blanton may have put out the best performance (if only by a slim margin over Oswalt) and it looks like Hamels may get a very rare deserved loss tonight. Lord knows he does have many losses.

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