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Monday, August 30, 2010

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watching the mets/braves while waiting for the phils game to start...

2 things --

1)the mets freaking suck
2)braves fans suck even worse -- it looks like their stadium is 1/3 full

Unfortunately, Braves offense is having no trouble against Pat Ish.

David Wright is having a Ryan Howard type night. Halfway to the Golden Sombrero!

Davis is halfway to the sombrero as well ... these guys look like they are sleepwalking. I'm not expecting any favors by the Mets this series

Well, it was 2-2 with 2 outs until Misch gave up a hit to Jurrjens. A Infante hit and a Heyward HR followed. Probably only a matter of time. Misch won't walk anyone but he's hittable.

Heading to the game tonight. Not sure if Manny's release makes it less or more likely that I get stabbed in the parking lot on the way out.

The Phillies are going to either have to win the division on their own, or they're going to have to win the wild card. The only time you're going to see well pitched Met games from dreck like Pat Misch is likely when they play the Phillies punchless lineup.

The Mutts are sickening to watch. Never seen a team with less heart and guts. And it makes me physically ill to try to root for them. I had to turn the game off. It was 2-2 at the time, and I had no doubt the Mutts would be down by a lot the next time I checked. It's in their DNA. Yuck.

McCann just put down a bunt because they were playing a shift on him. Always wondered why Howard never does that.

Utley is a great choice for the 2 hole. Great contact skills, best baserunner in baseball, decent speed. I like it.

About time Polly is rewarded for his great season.

****McCann just put down a bunt because they were playing a shift on him. Always wondered why Howard never does that.****

I doubt Howard has bunted since little league.

Jair Jurrjens: 5-4 4.45 ERA 1.33 WHIP... must be one of the Braves' Teflon-coated pitchers. Can a team coast into World Championship-ville with an endless string of Brian McCann walk offs?

If the Phils had taken care of business against the Stros, they'd be either in first or in a tie for first (and that's with another final AB win for the Braves yesterday).

Bruce Ruffin: Sime answer - no.

Sophist: If the Giants had taken care of business against the D-backs, the Phils would be trailing them in the wildcard.

Sophist -- if I said what I'm thinking, at some point, I'd get a "calm the bleep down, think of your health" from the great Old Phan.

Mets will give the Braves a little trouble in this series, but not tonight.

Cocks must be sacrificing chickens in the dugout or something. I'm glad I had to Misch the beginning of this game but now I can watch their Dessens into hell. Ugh.

If the Mets can somehow split the series (presumably behind Santana and a lucky win elsewhere), I don't think we can be that disappointed. The key is we just have to win as many off the Mets as well.

The way the Cards and Giants are playing, if we just keep winning, I'm fine with the wild card. We'd have to play San Diego on the road? Oh no. Don't color me scared.

way to go wright -- nice ab there

Wow, calling Bobby Cox "cocks" never gets old, does it? Oh, wait, yes it does.

I see they're grooming Ike Davis for the David Wright role when he leaves in free agency.

That Happ kid is "luckin out" again so far tonight against the Cardinals.

If David Wright leaves via free agency, he'd look amazing in red pinstripes!

Does he get a special baggage exemption to take his smoke & mirrors with him everywhere he goes?

Baseball-Reference comparisons for David Wright:

Most similar batter
Chase Utley
Matt Holliday

Most similar batter through age 26
Scott Rolen
Duke Snider

I'd kill to have Wright in a Phillies uniform.

Happ can't be good. Beerleaguer (and it's local spelling police) told me so.

Heyward could have caught that ball.

I dont think anyone said he wasn't good...most of us just said he wasn't Roy Oswalt. And most pitchers arent that good.

ERA+ Since the trade:

Roy Oswalt: 192
JA Happ: 97

No one ever compared Happ to Oswalt as far as I remember, but anything is possible.

"unless I can hit up a Clearasil-coated CSN intern for a postgame summary."

What are you trying to say about Clearasil interns?

and if it wasnt for the phils crappy offense, i doubt its even 97.

CSN interns, I mean.

****No one ever compared Happ to Oswalt as far as I remember, but anything is possible.****

No one should ever complain about "losing" Happ considering what we got in return.

Some people think Happ is a 3.30 ERA pitcher or better. Others think he's a 4.30 ERA pitcher or worse. Time will tell. 1 game won't. By the way, his ERA since joining the Stros is 4.26.

Since oswalt trade:

Happ: 4.26 ERA, 28/19 K/BB in 31.2IP
KK: 4.76 ERA, 18/10 K/BB in 34 IP

I could care less who is throwing against the Cards, as long as they (and the Giants) keep on losing

Old Phan: "Happ can't be good. Beerleaguer (and it's local spelling police) told me so."

As a founding member of the Beerleaguer grammar police, you should have used "its" instead of "it's."

If 3.30 is the over/under for Happ, I'll take the over for every year for the rest of his career.

I'm fairly certain that Beerleaguer consensus was that Happ is a pretty good pitcher. I think the minority believed he had pitched above his head last year. I'm glad he's finding success in Houston... just wish it wasn't against us!

Mets may be the worst situational hitting team in the NL. This game should be 5-4 or 5-5 after 6.

Jurrjens out; O'Flaherty in. I hate Mets watching. Just postponing the inevitable walk off.

NEPP -- I'd take that action in a heartbeat.

Happ is a pretty good pitcher. He just has health and control problems and his ERA was as good as it'll ever be last year. He's a solid 4/5 starter -- maybe a #3 if he gets the BB rate down. But he's just the kind of guy a team like the Phils trades for an ace.

Mets BA with the bases loaded is right around .190 at this point.

***NEPP -- I'd take that action in a heartbeat.***

You really think that Happ will regularly be a sub 3.30 ERA guy?

That would put him in the top 30 in all the Majors (28th actually) for ERA.

CJ, technically it was a typographical error, but thanks for pointing it out nonetheless.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Wright in red pinstripes if only to break the heart of every last Mets fan.

But am I the only one that's worried he may have seen the best years of his career? He just doesn't seem like the same player the last two years.

Once more (with feeling): What "4/5 starter" is elected SN ROY and comes in 2nd in the BBWA ROY? Lefties bloom late. He might win 200 games. Hell, he's got a truckload of better stuff than Moyer.

Wright would put up huge numbers in CBP if he played there 81 games a year. His numbers this year aren't that far off from his 05-08 numbers (141 OPS+ vs 133 OPS+).

Old Phan: No problem ;-)

Previous Rookies of the Year that didn't really pan out:

Dontrelle Willis
Scott Williamson
Eric Karros

And that's guys that actually won it...I could go deeper into guys that finished as the runner up. Coglan isn't exactly lighting the world on fire after his win over Happ last year.


Again, I'm not saying this to bash him but I simply dont see him as a future 200 game winner.

Most guys have better "stuff" than Moyer FWIW. Moyer was a one in a million shot.

bruce: Jason Jennings won the ROY - he had 1 season with an ERA under 4.

The Braves weren't gonna keep winning by scoring 2.5 runs a game, as Sophist continually pointed out.

However, it looks like they've solved that problem by scoring more than 2.5 runs a game. Which sucks.

Ooh, Jennings, forgot about him.

If you think "stuff" has anything to do with it, then every guy in the Phils system has better "stuff" than Moyer so I guess they'll all be huge successes.

Mets blow.

Todd Hollandsworth was another great RoY winner. Him and his lifetime 97 OPS+.

Thank God Happ squirreled his way into 2nd place in the real BBWA vote... Now he’s a HOFer (tongue firmly in cheek).

No one delights in telling us the Braves are awesome like Jack does!

god the mets fvcking suck... if they take one of 4, this series i'll be shocked

The one thing I truly despise about the Braves is how they always seem to have a guy like Infante that comes in and goes nuts exactly when they need him to. Infante is batting over .340 this year...its ridiculous.

It's still not an offense I expect to score a lot of runs. They've put a bunch of runs up in individual (4-5) games this month and looked not so hot in others. Heyward has been the big difference it seems as well as getting Prado back.

That said, it's not like they've been doing a ton of winning lately.

I've watched Happ vs. Pujols tonight and Albert has fouled half a dozen pitches straight back... he's missing by just a little, but missing nonetheless. I've rarely seen him this frustrated... smacking his bat, walking in circles, etc.

CJ -- Da' Brafes' are famine, pestilence, depression and corruption; every evil thing in the world to a Phillies fan.

Remember, Pujols already ripped Happ's soul out in their last game against each other.

Happ has a one-hit shutout through 7 innings. He's dealing!

bruce ruffin: does the pitcher Bruce Ruffin ring a bell to you? A deceptive nonstuff lefty who had a great rookie year.

Ruffin 1986: 9-4 2.62 ERA, 1.59 K/BB, .278 BAbip, 74.5% LOB, 7th in ROY

Happ 2009: 12-4 2.93 ERA, 2.13 K/BB, .270 BAbip, 85% LOB, 2nd in ROY

2-0 Astros.

Happ is 27 & has 17 career wins. If he plays until he's 40, he would have to average 14.85 wins per year to get to 200. That means, among other things, no more injuries. It also means he'd have to average more wins per season than:

Roy Halladay (13.66)
Roy Oswalt (14.60)
Johan Santana (14.33)

Happ's a good pitcher. When he throws strikes (like tonight), he can be very good because he's undeniably hard to hit. But he has never shown an ability to throw strikes consistently and, at nearly 28, it's getting pretty late in the game for that to change. Between that and his health risks, his odds of even winning 100 games are slim. 200 is totally ridiculous. You could give me 10,000 to 1 odds on that proposition & I'd still bet against it because it has literally zero chance of happening.

COL vs SF

I am actually kinda of scared about the Rockies getting hot a la 2007. Carlos Gonzalez frightens me by himself. I might want to see SF win a few to cool them off even tho SF is closer behind us in the WC.

Sophist: True, but Heyward looks to be heating back up, which is a big boost for them. Basically, they've been doing just enough winning, which is all they have to do considering they're the ones who had the headstart of a big division lead.

I think we both make the playoffs, and the Phils can win the division if they take 4 or more of the last 6. Just my prediction. For all I know, the Braves lose 10 straight and we run away with the division.

jason.tp: I'd like Colorado to take 2 of 3 as the Phils continue winning. That's be an ideal scenario in my mind.

bap, it gets even better when he says that he'd have a better career ERA (sub 3.30) than Halladay (3.32) while doing it.

jason: I've had the same thoughts with the Rockies. I'm terrified they go 25-5 down the stretch and steal away the WC again. It's not really rational, but I just always assume they'll get hot down the stretch.

perez makes romero look like greg maddux lol

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CJ: I agree. I'd be fine with Colorado taking 2 of 3 from SF. A sweep would start to scare me, though.

Happ has a 2-hit shutout on 101 pitches through 8 IP vs. St. Louis.

Jack: I hope San Fran avoids the sweep as well. I don't know why I worry about the Rockies. It doesn't make sense. They're not that good of a team. And look what we did to Ubaldo this year.

Yeah but the Rockies always seem to go on that run...I dont want to see us get buzzsawed again like we did in 2007.

Cards held a closed-door players-only meeting before the Stros game called by Pujols to discuss how to get back on track. Their solution?

Shaved heads.

I'm serious.

And they're getting shutout in Houston on 2 hits through 8 IP. Well played, Albert.

jason.tp -- Irony. Except that Happ looks like a freakin' librarian, despite having a pitcher's 6th sense to go for the kill. He's sick and tired of a certain organization’s indifference. Most of all, he's got an uncanny way of working out of trouble, and by all appearances wants to be a big leaguer.

Bruce Ruffin faded like a roman candle after his rookie year. He's a good guy however, and his son Chance Ruffin was the 48 overall pick; drafted by the Tigers.

Jack: This is the very reason why the WC isn't a great route to the playoffs. Invariably, there are as many as 5 or 6 teams in play &, no matter how well you play down the stretch, there's always a decent chance that someone else will play better. That's kind of what happened to the Phillies in 2004, 2005 & 2006, when they had strong Septembers but came up a game or two short because someone else was playing very well also.

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bruce: im not as down on happ as some, but i would definitely label myself as a nonbeliever. I think his rookie year will be his career year, and by a decent margin as well.

I dont wish him bad luck, and if he turns out to be good, then good for him and im glad he's not in the NL East.

It's a game with no playoff consequences, but that Cubs-Pirates boxscore is amazing. The Cubs have 13 runs & 16 hits in 5 innings (and counting), without the benefit of a single homerun.

The Cardinals deserve to fall apart and miss the postseason after the Glenn Beck jerk fest LaRussa and Pujols attended.

CJ - Given the company Pujols has been keeping lately, I'm surprised his suggestion wasn't to buy gold. Lots and and lots of gold.

ESPN praising Farnsworth. One of the irksome things about national coverage: the assumption that when a team is doing well every addition/move they'd made was a good move. Guess what: Farnsworth has been awful for the Braves, as has Ankiel and Lee.

I <3 Glen Beck almost as much as I <3 GWB :)

MG, was it you who had the "bet" relating to the Phillies starter's ERA vs. the Braves starters?

What are the figures on that now?

Happ was a great get for Eddie Wade. He'll just keep on winning games for years to come and making all the "non-believers" look silly. He's a very good major league pitcher. End of story.

Wade has actually done a nice job rebuilding that team. Kinda like he did rebuilding the Phils many years ago.

Wade gets ripped on a lot here, but I actually think he's a pretty good organization builder.

Cody Overbeck has quietly had a strong power year in A/AA this year. Has 24 HR's now for the season with close to 80 ribbies. Seems like the right handed version of Rizzotti (who got hurt almost as soon as he was promoted to Lehigh).

Happ is at his season high for pitches thrown. He has thrown a bunch more in games last year...with a career high of 127.

Happ throws a 2-hit, 1-walk, 4-K shutout in Houston vs. the Cards. He was dealing tonight.

So we can mark down Denny and Bruce Ruffin who would rather have Happ than Oswalt.

Too funny the ridiculousness of that.

The Phils/Astros deal this year was a good deal for both teams.

Phils got Oswalt, who is a top tier pitcher on a playoff team.

Astros got Happ, who is a top tier young pitcher who is cheap and will be in Houston for the forseeable future and Brett Wallace, who will be their 1B for years to come.


Kinda like the Phils/Stros deal with Lidge and Bourn. A deal that helped both teams.

bap -- The pundits; baseball men and all the other wizards of the game counted Jamie Moyer down for the count... how many times? Left-handed pitchers are strange creatures. I just get sick and tired when Happ is referred to as "a guy" when he clearly has something extra. Who would you take: Happ or Kendrick? Happ, of course.

Regardless, I'm thrilled we have Oswalt, and the trade for him was ridiculously lopsided for the Phils. Funny thing though: when Oswalt has had his last cortisone shot, Happ is likely to still be a damn fine pitcher. Heck, TJ surgery might give him a consistent 96 mph heater, although I really don't believe that he's a health risk.

Tbag "Dodgers stadium, home of the Dodgers"

Of course, without Wallace, they'd have just moved Carlos Lee over and actually gotten a LF that could field but whatever.

Houston will be lucky to win 60 games next year regardless of how well Wallace, Myers, or Happ does.

Stacks of Phils phans in attendance tonight.

Lets go Phils!!!

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