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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

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"...as the Braves lost to the ."

Ooh, the suspense is killing me!

Fingers crossed for a Brown promotion tonight! (I'm headed to the game.)

Well deserved win for Herndon last night.

Matt: Ha! Needed to check the score. 3-0 Nationals.

I would love to see Brown in Philly tonight. I miss seeing him in Reading

I'm one of the more otimistic of Werth in center than most. i never felt he was a butcher out there, just not as good as Vic.

Mayberry can't hit RHP so he doesn't work in a Ben Fran platoon. Personally, I'd go with Brown.

Still, there's a good chance Vic is healthy enough to stay off the DL.

BAP is absolutely right about moving SP to bullpen. In fact, it is often done BECAUSE a pitcher is seen as injury-prone and the bullpen is:
1. Less demanding because you throw fewer innings.
2. Doesn't require that you throw 4 pitches including sliders or curves, which sometimes damage the elbow.

Those are the reasons the Mariners moved Aumont to the bullpen.

if brown gets called up tonight the bank will explode. if maybe comes up 44,000 people will be annoyed.

Via BedBeard: "From Paul Hagen today:

Here's where it gets interesting, though. The scout in Kansas City is believed to be headed for Cleveland today. A veteran baseball person suggested last night that, after Oswalt, Tribe righthander Jake Westbrook might be the next best option.

Well, Westbrook pitched Monday. But righthander Fausto Carmona is scheduled to face the Yankees tonight. And he's an intriguing proposition. He was 19-8 in 2007, 5-12 in 2009. But he's 6-2, 3.53 in his last eight starts for Cleveland. He's making $4.9 million this year and $6.1 million next year with a club option for $7 million in 2012."

Cramona is indeed intriguing. Far more than Edwin Jackson, also mention in the Hagen col.

bay_area_phan/clout -- I disagree strongly about a starter easily adjusting to the bullpen. If a pitcher is coming off an injury, is injury prone, or has simply started his entire career, how does warming up (throwing hard) 5x a week benefit durability, vs. a controlled regimen of inactivity/ long toss / aerobics (running) and the starting day routine?

Also, if you're not accustomed to the "all-out" for 1 - 3 inning(s) mentality, things can get very wrong, very fast. See Brett Myers’ and Antonio Bastardo's 2 month imprisonments on the DL due to "shoulder sprains" shortly after their stints in the pen. You're either a starter or reliever; if you can toggle those roles, you're incredibly disciplined and durable.

Clout: I'd be pretty stoked for Carmona, but I think it'd require a haul to get him because the contract is very team friendly.

Ahem....

After Brown went 2 for 4 with a two-run triple during triple-A Lehigh Valley's 5-3 loss to Durham on Tuesday night at Coca-Cola Park, Lehigh Valley manager Dave Huppert was asked if he felt his highly touted right-field prospect was ready for the big leagues.

"I don't think Domonic would be the guy if somebody went on the [disabled list]," Huppert said. "If it's only for a short period of time, I think it would be [John] Mayberry. I don't think they want to start the clock."


Almost verbatim what I said last night. I think it is unlikely that they'll bring him up for a short time in the middle of a pennant race.

Phlipper: So the next question is, will he start next season with the big club or be held down till June to avoid super two status.

I'd have to think that if Vic was headed to the DL, Mayberry will be up. As JW says, "Mayberry would follow the Phillies' pattern in terms of outfield depth and mindfulness of the 40-man roster." If Brown does make an appearance, it would be against the Phils' S.O.P.

And the quote from Huppert (posted by Phlipper) doesn't make me feel any better about a Brown call-up. I don't know the ins-and-outs of the service time clock, but I would assume Huppert does.

Scratch Antonio Bastardo from the injured during relieving list – he hurt his shoulder throwing largely fastballs in his 5 starts in 2009. Regardless, if a starting pitcher’s routine is disrupted by the intensity demanded by relieving, trouble can occur. Perhaps the most recent example is Jamie Moyer and his sports hernia in 2009...

Heck, maybe Bastardo tried to overthrow in an attempt to stay up with the big club and ended up hurt anyway. Looks like the pen hasn’t cured Kerry Wood of his injury woes. Here's hoping Steven Strasburg gets sorted out.

That sounds like the Phillies’ thinking all right, except that Huppert was 100% honest and upfront as to why the Phillies FO are thinking that way.

Oh well - time to work...

Unless you think the Phils aren't calling Brown up all year and you think he's possibly starting next year in AAA as well, a call-up this week would have no impact on his clock.

Time to put out the garbage.

if brown gets called up tonight the bank will explode. if maybe comes up 44,000 people will be annoyed.

I'm glad you're giving majority of those people (Phillies' fans) that much credit. Of the 44,000 that will be at the game, I bet 16-18,000 of them will have one of the following responses:

1. Domonic Brown? Who the @$*% is that?
2. Where's Victorino?
3. Brown...Brown...yeah, this is the guy they got instead of going after Oswalt. Nice work, Amaro.

In my experience, outside of the few very dedicated fans (BL community, etc.), people don't know about the farm system. Or it's just the idiots I sit near and/or talk to. You would have thought Mathieson was from another planet when he came up.

(NOTE: I'm not comparing the skill level of Brown and Mathieson, nor their respect throughout the prospects rankings. But, Mathieson had been around a while and people were thoroughly confused as to who he was when he made his appearance this year.)

Hoping for Brown, but it doesn't seem too likely. Will stay tuned to BL for the latest and greatest on the latest injury and resulting MRI story. Ugh.

Not good news on Vic. At least he didn't pull a quad/hamstring which happens to him almost every year at some point. Still, this is the type of injury that even if you give it 2 weeks of rest, it is very easy to reinjure.

Add Vic to the list of Phils' players who won't be 100% healthy until the start of next year.

gobaystars!: Please know that I was not attacking you. In fact, I agree with your general point. My post was in no way an attack on your post. After I re-read mine, it sort of appeared that way so I wanted to clarify.

Mayberry would make some sense for 2 reasons (if indeed, Vic has to go to the DL):

-They can platoon him with Gload in RF. Gload would get most of the starts against RHP.

-Outfield defense (which might be the biggest on-field reason). With Ibanez, Francisco, Werth (CF), Gload and Brown (RF) as your outfielders, that is a very weak defensive group. Brown has great tools and will eventually be a very good defender, but he can be an adventure in the field. The rest of are self-explanatory.

If you bring up Mayberry for a couple of weeks, you could see Gload get most of the starts in RF and then see Mayberry come into the game in the 7th-9th inning as a defensive replacement (either in RF or CF, with Werth moving back over to RF).


I think Brown would hold his own for a couple of weeks as a hitter. As a fielder and baserunner, not sure. And I have always felt that when the Phils bring Brown up, they would plan on him never going back down. In this scenario, whoever comes up is likely going back down as soon as Vic is ready.

What I think you WILL see, no matter what happens in this scenario, is Brown coming up a few days before Sept 1. That way he will be elgible for the post-season roster.

Well, I am sober now and Mrs. Rauls Grandpa can't believe I woke her up last night when I got home to rave about Brett Myers and Ted Lilly. I am sober and I still want them to get Brett Myers and do it cheaply.

My money's on Mayberry (though I'd rather see Brown) for the reasons denny lays out (esp. the "never send him back down" story), but I'm pretty sure the idea that they're worried about his arbitration clock is false.

Anyone in the organization on 8/31 would be eligible for the postseason roster to replace a player on the DL (e.g., Moyer). There is no need to bring up Brown for postseason roster purposes.

jbird -

I don't know the ins and outs of the contractual regulations, but it seems the course they've been on is to bring him up in Sept., see how he does in spring training next year, and then decide if he's ready at that point after they've watched him against major-league pitching.

I would LOVE to see D.Brown come up, I just wanna see what this kid can do...

As for Carmona, if i recall correctly, he has issues staying healthy, doesn't he?

rbill: I have caught myself falling into that mode of thinking - and it is pretty disturbing.

The attitude of that post is pretty sickening if you take a step back. There are thousand and thousands of dedicated fans who love the phils and know them inside and out that have never heard even heard of beerleaguer.

I've learned a ton since coming on this blog and attribute much of it to the group of posters here - but you gotta watch yourself when you start thinking this place puts you on some higher level of being a fan, because its simply not true and makes you sound like a snobby prick.

Bring him up now. Even if its only for 2 weeks, that'll take us to mid-August and he'd likely be up in Sept anyway. Might as well just keep him up for the final 2 months to give him seasoning and let him take over a starting role next year. Probably the smartest way to handle it to be honest.

The 40 man isn't an issue as its likely Moyer is done for the season anyway and pushing him to the 60 man DL opens a spot...too easy people, too easy.

Phils could very well miss both Strasburg and Josh Johnson in the next week.

Not a lot of good starting pitchers in the next week of baseball, at least on paper.

denny - good post, I agree with that a lot, especially the whole "send him back down" theory.

hah - although it will be tough to not make smartass posts at you everytime mayberry makes an out.

****If you bring up Mayberry for a couple of weeks, you could see Gload get most of the starts in RF and then see Mayberry come into the game in the 7th-9th inning as a defensive replacement (either in RF or CF, with Werth moving back over to RF).****

I'm trying to figure out why you'd even think there's a possibility that Mayberry is a better defensive CF than Werth.

flipper - If you think the Phils are calling him up in Sept., then his clock would not be effected by changing plans and calling him up today. Super-2 territory has almost certainly passed. They'd have to hold him back until next June to change it again.

@Billingsly: I get your point but I think Brown is pretty well known by now. I hope.

****They'd have to hold him back until next June to change it again. ****

And there is no legitimate reason to do that...unless Werth is resigned and that's likely not happening.

Between the year-round Phillies trade rumors and the recent offensive struggles, a lot of people have heard of Brown. During long stretches of car boredom, I've heard "iggles" fans on the radio asking for his call-up.

NEPP,

The 40 man is not really an issue anyway. There are already 2 spots available.

I would prefer Brown to be called up too, but there are also valid on-field reasons why he won't be. He'd likely be fine with the bat and would be in there every day (and Mayberry would be a platoon guy). I think they need the every day player more in this scenario, but can see why it may not happen.

I kinda think the only way Brown was going to get the call, is if Werth ever got traded. Again I think the Phils plan with Brown is "when he comes up, he's never going back".

Not saying that is right or wrong, but that is the vibe have gotten from them.

Most casual fans definitely know Dom Brown at this point, and the sense I get is that most people are wondering if he's such a hotshot then why isn't he up by now, especially with the offense struggling (as of a couple weeks ago).

I'd be interested in Carmona, b/c of past success, age and contract status. BUT, isn't a knock on him that he's not a guy who does well under the limelight or pressure situations? To be fair, I'm not sure of what "pressure" situations he's had in Cleveland. I remember reading a report about that in a rumor that he was linked to the Mets and they were iffy about him.

Sophist - First, I tend to doubt that Vic's going on the DL. During the game it looked to me more like tweak than an injury, but we'll soon find out. But if it is an injury that results in the 15-day DL, I don't see them bringing Brown up for a short stint of irregular playing time during the heat of a pennant race. That doesn't seem like their method of player-development strategy.

Again, my sense is that they see Brown's developmental arc to have a bigger curve than fans who are excited to see him play and who want to plug an immediate hole at the major-league level. And while I'd love to see him called up, I get that when you have a potential superstar, you don't want to make short-term decisions that aren't consistent with your player-development strategies.

"hah - although it will be tough to not make smartass posts at you everytime mayberry makes an out."


That will be OK. He may make a lot of outs. He's a .260 hitter. He might also launch one against a LHP to help them win a game.

As long as he plays good defense and contributes in other ways, that will be fine for a couple of weeks.

- although it will be tough to not make smartass posts at you everytime mayberry makes an out


The "Brown would have grabbed a drink before catching that," or "Brown would have hit that homer twice as far" posts will be legion in number.

denny: i have no doubt that everyone here will be more than happy to give you ur due if that happens.

You can bet a ton of Phans of all levels of dedication know who Dom Brown is - at the absolute least he's known as the guy who wasn't worth trading for Roy Halladay.

A while back I wrote that Brown is being held down becuase the team wants to save the clock. I was lectured by a whole bunch. Now we read that someone in the organziation has said as much. So which is it anyone know the rules definitviely?

but you gotta watch yourself when you start thinking this place puts you on some higher level of being a fan, because its simply not true and makes you sound like a snobby prick.

jason.tp: I get what you're saying. My point was not to sound like an elitist, but to point out that there are many Phillies fans who don't follow the minor league system. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, or that I am better than anyone, just making an observation. Phillies fans are Phillies fans. I was simply pointing out that not everyone is going to know who Dom Brown is, or his relevancy to the big club. That's all.

Do you think I'm wrong with that line of thinking?

Thanks for the name-calling, though. It made my morning.

Oblique injuries are a tough injury to recover from...even when they dont look that serious when they first occur. I would be surprised if he isn't DLed as it ones of those things that effects pretty much all movement.

Mayberry is a .260 hitter in AAA. He wouldn't hit that in MLB unless he only played against LHP. He'd hit maybe .260 with very few walks (maybe a .290/.310 OBP) and a bunch of HR if used solely against LHP.

flipper - I have no idea if Vic will be DL'd or not. The article you quoted had the AAA coach saying they wouldn't call up Brown because of his service clock. If that's their reason, it's based on a false premise. It's possible they think he needs more seasoning, but if they had moved Werth this week he'd be up, wouldn't he? Provides some support that they think his arc locates him in MLB sooner rather than later. Or do you think they would have played Mayberry in OF or a Francisco/Gload platoon in RF for the rest of the year?

Now, that's what they would have done if they had a more permanent opening in OF. If Vic does to the 15-day DL, Brown wouldn't have an everyday position in mid-August and he'd be sent back down. I think they may be trying to avoid that - for some reason - rather than worrying about his seasoning in AAA.

RK - The Iron Pigs coach is either mistaken or is using "clock" not to refer to concern over $$$/service time, but as a general term for his development. Or he thinks the organization is keeping Brown done all this year and possibly into June of next year.

"I'm trying to figure out why you'd even think there's a possibility that Mayberry is a better defensive CF than Werth."

I don't think the original poster was necessarily suggesting that Mayberry is a better CF then Werth.

What I think was being said was that Mayberry in CF and Werth in RF > Werth CF and Mayberry RF.

I think the reason is more that Werth > Mayberry in RF. Less of a commentary on who is the better CF.

I wouldn't really expect a AAA manager to be familiar with all the idiosyncracies of the MLB service time rules. I think he's just mistaken. The only way service time is an issue is if the Phillies plan to keep Brown in the minors until next July -- which I rather doubt.

The article I quoted actually listed two reasons, Sophist, and the "clock starting" was really the secondary of the two: He said they wouldn't want to start the clock for a short-term call-up.

I'm not at all convinced that if Werth had been moved they would have called him up. I think it is entirely possible that they would have gone with a Gload/BenFran/Mayberry/Ibanez mix-and-match in the outfield with Vic.

Some folks have cited reports that they were going to bring up Brown if they moved Werth, but I haven't seen anything confirmed, and their reluctance to bring up Brown when Ibanez was struggling suggests to me that they have not determined that Brown is major-league level ready.

"(NOTE: I'm not comparing the skill level of Brown and Mathieson, nor their respect throughout the prospects rankings. But, Mathieson had been around a while and people were thoroughly confused as to who he was when he made his appearance this year.)"

This sort of disclaimer speaks volumes about BL, although I'm not entirely sure what they say.

My favorite part of this thread so far?

The implication that Gload is a better defender than Brown.

That's funny stuff.

flipper - If they don't want to call him up and "start his clock" only for a short term call-up, it's really one reason: the clock. They'd be saying it's not worth starting the clock if it's just for the short term. That analysis is based on a false premise, unless he's using the word "clock" differently than how it's usually understood. He didn't say anything about his development.

In any case, we both seem to think he won't get called up in the event that Vic is DL'd.

I shouldn't have written anything.

My point was to state that NOT EVERYONE follows the farm system. The disclaimer was to point out that Mathieson has pitched in the big leagues prior to this season, and there were still a number of people I came across that did not know who he was.

I'm making no judgments about fans in general, just that not everyone is going to know who Dom Brown is, regardless of the attention he gets, because not everyone

You know what? Forget it.

I can see it coming...

Phils call up Mayberry instead of Brown for reasons they believe to be in the best interest of the team and the players (I disagree, but an argument can be made)... and when that happens, people explode into criticisms of the front office based on false information regarding "the clock."

I mean... that would never happen on Beerleaguer, would it?

Can't argue with this line, though:

.346/.390/.561, 5 HR, 21 RBI in 28 games.

Anyone following Rizzoti? Where did he come from?

.364/.443/.653, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 52/30 K/BB in 68 games at Reading.

Interesting way of looking at it, Sophist. But you could also say that "the clock" is secondary in that the operative variable in determining the decision is the length of the call-up.

And yes, "the clock" is jargon, but it could also be somewhat of an ambiguous term, and it could me something like "start the clock running on his major league career" without reference to salary regulations.

Of course, it's all moot if Vic doesn't get DL'd - but if Vic is DL'd and Brown isn't called up, just think of how many opportunities we'll have to bash the team's management everytime Mayberry screws up.

It will be a FO-bashing lovefest here at BL. Heather will be over the moon.

Not from the Onion:

Mets Seek Overpriced, Underperforming Pitcher?
By Tim Dierkes [July 28, 2010 at 9:06am CST]

The Mets are quite concerned about their 2011 ticket sales, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. That concern could compel them to make a trade, but Sherman says their target is modest:

What I hear is the Mets are trying to locate a pitcher (probably a reliever) who is overpriced and not having a particularly strong season, but who their scouts like and pluck him for little to no prospect in return.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/mets-seek-overpriced-underperforming-pitcher.html#disqus_thread

Luckily we can all rest assured that the Phillies will definitely make a call up of some sort, as they're not at all the kind of organization that leaves their team short-handed while fumbling around trying to figure out who's hurt, how badly & what should be done about it ...

Awww, crap.

On a completely different topic, two things that I think are remarkable:

- How quickly and unpredictably the Phillies offensive slump appears to have vanished;

- How quickly the division race, which most of us judged to be over, is now very clearly in play, and in fact we'd all be surprised if the Phillies don't win it.

I don't think I've ever seen a whole-team, 2-month slump before. I don't see why it started, and I don't see why it ended. But it's clear that when the Phillies are hitting as well as they're capable of hitting, average pitching is more than enough and a half-dozen games distance from the top of the division is not very far.

Nearly all of us were fooled into thinking that the 2-month slump was something permanent, or at least that it would continue 'till the end of the season. We had little reason to think otherwise. I observe, thankfully, that we were wrong.

Do I understand why the Phillies might call up Mayberry instead of Brown? Yes. He's played at the MLB level before (though not well), he's possibly a better defender (Brown has better tools, but Mayberry seems to be more experienced and knows what he's doing), and they don't want to screw up Brown's development. Given that they know a lot more about the personalities and intricacies' of these guys' games than we do, and given that there is no financial issues either way which could be the real motivating factor, I'm willing to give them some benefit of the doubt.

That said, I would call up Brown. He's simply a better baseball player, and the Phillies are in a pennant race. You need better baseball players to win games and I think they should do everything possible to win games right now.

Perhaps I'm just being overly cynical, but I think the Phillies' FO secretly has this fear that, if they call up Brown for a few weeks, he'll significantly out-perform Vic. That would create a tension, when Vic returns, between what the fans want & what the Phillies' FO (rightly or wrongly) believes is good for team chemistry & clubhouse factors.

If Brown is expected to be an everyday player for the Phillies in '11 -- & at the moment we have no reason to believe that is not the case -- he should absolutely be the player called up (assuming, of course, that someone is called up at all). The notion of a prospect as highly touted as Brown having his development screwed up by appearing in a few MLB games in late July is laughable. He's an OF, not a SP, & he's going to have to face MLB pitching sooner or later. It's becoming apparent he's not learning much from crushing AAA pitching, & as such I'd much rather the guy get a little taste of what it's like now than show up in April completely green.

If winning the division is the primary goal, there's no reason to call up Mayberry instead of Domo. It's that simple...

rbill: didnt mean to say you are a snob, just that when people talk like only beerleaguerers would know such and such, thats how you come off. again, i've caught myself before doing the same thing, just a heads up.

Ibanez' BA over .260 for the first time all year. 6 game hitting streak: .429/.520/.667.

His BAbip on LD is still at a career low .607 (from .756 career norm), but his overall BABIP is up to .292 (career norms around .300). If he can keep reverting to norms on his line drives, the only thing keeping him from his overall career norms is his HR/FB rate. He's been getting closer to his normal rate in the last 2 months (just a bit under 10% -- normal rate is about 11%). We'll see.

Since Amaro's & Montgomery's stupidity on Dec. 15, 2009, when they trashed Cliff Lee, is beyond the stupidity of the Red Sox on Dec. 26, 1919 when they dumped Babe Ruth both Dave & Ruben should be immediately placed on the 15 year disabled list before they do any more damage. Have I mentioned the Freddy Garcia lack of due diligence?

BAP, they may feel the same about him outperforming JW or Raul as well.
I can't imagine them worrying about any of that, especially if they're winning.

Other than just wanting to see the guy play, I wonder why people are in such a rush to bring Brown up.

There must be at least 3 clocks per player all with different gear ratios.

From what I've seen of both of them at Lehigh Valley, Domonic Brown is a better outfielder right now than Mayberry, who is no more than adequate. Brown has a cannon.

I don't watch LV's games so I have no opinion on the current state of Mayberry's defense. In his brief time in the majors, however, his defense made Ben Francisco look like a Gold Glover.

I'm hitting .364 and nobody wants me. I might as well run for mayor of Reading.

"Other than just wanting to see the guy play, I wonder why people are in such a rush to bring Brown up."

I'm in a "rush" to bring him up if Vic is hurt because it seems like he is the genuinely best outfielder in our system right now.

I just want the Phillies to position themselves for the best chance of winning.

I think a lot of other people feel that way...it's just we all want the Phils to have the best people they can in place in order to win.

I could deal with a Mayberry/Gload platoon in RF. I just think Brown in RF would be better.

"Perhaps I'm just being overly cynical, but I think the Phillies' FO secretly has this fear that, if they call up Brown for a few weeks, he'll significantly out-perform Vic"

Whether they are worried about it now or not, the Phils would have a difficult decision if they called up Brown and he went on a tear. Who would you sit at that point? It would be a difficult decision.

"Major League Baseball plans to begin next season on a Friday, three days earlier than in past years, and end it on a Wednesday in September, moving the World Series up by a week in order to complete the postseason during the month of October.

The regular season will begin on April 1 and conclude on Sept. 28, with the playoffs beginning on Sept. 30 or Oct. 1, USA Today reported. The World Series will be scheduled to begin on Wednesday, Oct. 19, meaning a seven-game Series would be expected to be completed on Oct. 27. "

There is something odd about November baseball.

"Nearly all of us were fooled into thinking that the 2-month slump was something permanent, or at least that it would continue 'till the end of the season. We had little reason to think otherwise. I observe, thankfully, that we were wrong."

Ix-nay on the celebration. We don't to let the slump know that we noticed it was gone or we might jinx it into coming back.

:-)

"Mets Seek Overpriced, Underperforming Pitcher?"


Whoever they get should fit right in. :-) LOL...it feels good to make fun of the Mets again.

what i find remarkable...no posts about possible trade scenarios for starting pitching. with Jimmy and Shane's injuries, can we all agree that acquiring another starting pitcher should not be RAJ's focus? he should be focused on acquiring a RH INF.

i also find it remarkable how some people explain Happ's success as "lucky". in his almost ROY campaign his name was mentioned daily in possible trade scenarios for Doc, and he still got the job done. And now the FO is doing the same thing to him this year. is this some type of motivational ploy. the kid's a rock give him a chance...

To use another dessert based aphorism, "The Proof is in the Pudding" evidently does not apply to Happ.

the phils planned on bringing up Brown when the roster expands in September anyway, why not bring him up now if he can get regular playing time before his original planned call up date, seems like common sense to me...

Old Phan: We have no way of knowing where the Proof is. Joe Blanton ate all of the Pudding.

The notion of a prospect as highly touted as Brown having his development screwed up by appearing in a few MLB games in late July is laughable.

I think that's a bit of a red-herring. If you look at a player's overall development, you want to maximize their time at an instructional level as much as possible. Calling a player up, theoretically, means focusing their efforts on production more than on learning.

I do believe that Brown will probably learn best how to hit major-league pitching by hitting major-league pitching, but there is something to be said for the mindset of not short-changing the instructional process. It could lead to long-term sacrifice (he doesn't reach the same high-level due to less instructional time) at the expense of a short-term gain (a somewhat better player in LF for a couple of weeks).

"To use another dessert based aphorism, "The Proof is in the Pudding" evidently does not apply to Happ."

Stat guys don't like him. How much hold stat guys have over the FO I don't know, but pretty much every stat guy last year said Happ's success was unsustainable. Not that he'd suck, but they project him to be a 4-5th starter, with an ERA in the middle 4's.

That, coupled with his injury potential, could be why people don't love him as much as his W-L record and ERA last year would suggest.

Heather: It would depend on the matchups & who's playing well. It would depend on who's pitching for us, since OF defense is a lot more important for, say, Kyle Kendrick than it is for Roy Halladay. It would also depend on how Brown does against left-handed pitching, which is one area where I'd expect a rookie left-handed hitter to struggle. If he struggles, then maybe I platoon him with Vic, who rakes from the right side. You could also platoon Vic with Ibanez. Or you could platoon both Brown AND Ibanez, since you still have Francisco.

To me, these would all be nice problems to have. But I also think they are issues which the Phillies would prefer not to address in 2010. The Phillies subscribe to the view that, "You don't lose your job due to injury." If they take the safe route and pick Mayberry, they won't have to worry about breaking this rule once Vic returns.

Happ 2009

bases empty: .267/.320/.433 --- .302 BAbip
men on: .212/.298/.352 --- .226 BAbip
RISP: .158/.253/.226 --- .181 BAbip

Happ either continues this sort of LOB "ability" or he's a league average, cost-controlled SP (which is valuable, of course). Or a guy with a AA/AAA BB9 around 4 finds some control. It's just highly unlikely that he's anything more than a league average (4.50 ERA) pitcher.

That he may be overvalued by other GMs or the ROY voters is to the Phillies advantage.

How can any self-respecting Phillies fan even look at pitching/sabremetric stats with Jamie Moyer in our rotation for each of our N.L. east championship seasons. They would have said to give up on him 20 years ago, like every other team did...Wins and Losses, that's all I need to know

All quiet on the Roy front. Too quiet.

Re Mets: They should just head over to Columbia and see if one the scientists there can clone Ollie Perez for them.

"I'm in a "rush" to bring him up if Vic is hurt because it seems like he is the genuinely best outfielder in our system right now."

Good point, because before last night, I can't recall a single post about Dom Brown.

Jamie Moyer and SABER stats

yr: ERA - FIP - xFIP - SIERA

07: 5.01 - 4.93 - 4.72 - 4.54
08: 3.71 - 4.32 - 4.53 - 4.56
09: 4.94 - 5.08 - 4.74 - 4.65
10: 4.84 - 5.01 - 4.52 - 4.42

Seems like they have Moyer done pretty good. If anything, he underperforms his peripherals.

Correct aphorism:

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. (Not the proof is in the pudding.)

Reading MLBTradeRumors is like watching a traffic accident. You know you shouldn't look, but you can't turn away.

Schmitty: Remember when Cole's ERA was high last year & many were pointing to peripheral stats to show that plain old bad luck was a huge part of the explanation? Seems, they were right.

Well, that logic works both ways. The same stats that say Hamels was very unlucky in 2009 also say that Happ was uncommonly lucky, largely because he had ridiculously (and, yes, unsustainably) strong numbers with RISP.

He's a pretty good pitcher when healthy but, in a normal year, his ERA is far more likely to land in the low 4s than at 2.93.

Schmity's Stache: Obviously the only thing that matters is the Wins and Losses of the TEAM, but Sophist's analysis of Happ really speaks for itself.

Good point, because before last night, I can't recall a single post about Dom Brown.

Only slightly less rare than posts about he who shall not be mentioned.

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