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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Comments

Was interested to read that Polanco may eventually have off-season surgery to remove the bone chips in his elbow. Hopefully the pain holds off til then. He says he feels the best he has in almost a month. He hit will for average (nearly .350) while in all that pain, though with just 2 2B, so hopefully he comes on strong.

Jimmy's numbers haven't been great, but he looks better at the plate and finally had his first steal attempt since the return.

Sans Francisco the Phils would need a right handed bat off the bench like PtB.

A tease is an understatement describing rollins/bigheads starting the season atop the lineup.

Rollins: .391/.516/.739, 8 runs scored
Polanco: .481/.500/.704, 8 runs scored

Small Sample Sizes! Hip Hip Hooray!

BS, no question, but isn't that what's meant by a "tease." Of course, you could also be replying to Meyer.

On an unrelated note: I think the criticism of Heather is a bit over the top. So she has a differing opinion, get over it...dont rip her for it repeatedly...especially under fake log-in names. That's just stupid.

She brings up good points and asks legit questions. Nobody here is perfect.

slugga: believe me, I eagerly await the day that I can post stats about our top two hitters in the same lineup that wont be small samples.

BP Odds are at .01% that any poster on beerleaguer will not get ripped for having differing opinions.

NEPP: I completely agree.

When people come here and rip others without having their own opinions, they end up looking foolish.

I honestly dont see Rube making a trade for infielder with Polly coming back by the end of the week. He'll just plug Valdez in at 2B and go from there. And he's probably making the correct decision. Our offense should score enough runs with everyone but Utley in there and it'd be a waste of prospects to get a guy that will never play otherwise.

Quote from The Genius that is Bud.
* Why interleague play is here to stay.

"I'm going to say this bluntly: The one thing this game didn't do for 30 years or longer is listen to its fans. People like it. I like the drama. I like the excitement. I love it. But do we need to look at some things? Yes, we do and we'll do that."

NEPP: I agree that we "should" be able to survive without utley - but as every person in baseball(and life) has found out before - just because you should doesnt mean you will. I think we can burn a mid grade prospect to upgrade over castro and valdez. Kelly johnson, jose lopez, whoever - would be a pretty sizable upgrade over valdez and a MONSTER upgrade over Castro, they would play every day for about another month - month and a half, and most likly be our best pinch hitter going into the stretch.

Sorry, I didn't realize there was a more current thread, so reposting my query here...

~~~~~~~~~~

Just to be clear, the point of my post about tommy and Heather was to say that, in the words of b_lip or whatever that guy's name was, Heather > tommy.

Wouldn't surprise me if Heather would receive a bit less flak around here if, in addition to being a bit headstrong, she used a moniker that not so clearly identified herself (apparently anyway) as female.

Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, July 14, 2010 at 12:33 AM

~~~~~~~~~~

Sophist, I am kind of curious about why a poster (apparently) identifying herself as female would make a difference in the level of flak the poster receives on BL?

(bold emphasis added by me)

B.S. was appointed by the baseball gods and he will never make a decision without first consulting them.

It was a general statement. I was teasing you I suppose.

If Polanco can't find his power stroke, does he suddenly become Louis Castillo?

****I think we can burn a mid grade prospect to upgrade over castro and valdez. Kelly johnson, jose lopez, whoever - would be a pretty sizable upgrade over valdez and a MONSTER upgrade over Castro, they would play every day for about another month - month and a half, and most likly be our best pinch hitter going into the stretch.****

I agree on that (that it'd be an upgrade) but I think if Rube was gonna make a move, he would have done so by now. I think he believe's we'll be fine or that the price for a middle infielder is too high.

If Heather used a handle that was less obviously feminine people would stop bending over backwards to come to her defense.

Whether or not Polanco finds his power stroke, he will be a massive improvement at third (or second).

Polanco has a power stroke?

Is that a euphemism?

NEPP: gotta agree with you there, im sure he has looked, especially once bighead was down as well, so odds are if it hasnt been done yet than it might not.

Maybe rube the negotiator was waiting until he didnt look desperate to strike? With polly back, maybe he can talk a tougher game and swing either 1) a lesser prospect in return or 2) less of a salary commitment

My opinion, its not too late to pick up a stopgap infielder even if you've already been a few weeks without one, i hope ruben feels the same way if something comes across that is a good deal.

Or maybe Rich Dubee has run out of sons to trade (michael dubee for Iguchi in 2007)?

Polanco Career SLG/ISO: 415/111
Castillo Career SLG/ISO: 353/061

Polanco has a bit more power than a slap hitter like Castillo. That translates to ~2x as many HRs and doubles per year.

With Polly back and Valdez at 2B the offense really should be OK, as long as Jimmy's at full strength (or close to it) and the middle of the order hits.

Rube has stated on several occasions that he's not interested in an IF at the moment, and despite his penchant for dissembling I wouldn't be surprised at all if that was true.

If they can add another top 3 starter without sacrificing too much on the farm (by taking on an expensive contract, for instance), that's probably a worthwhile move. Or if they can pick up a solid back-end BP/Closer option, that would be as well. Otherwise, it's probably smarter long-term not to waste valuable prospects on a league-average IF who'll be riding the pine in a month or so.

If the Phils are going to continue to insist that Polanco play 3B, this biggest need hands down is somebody who has a decent bat who can play 2nd. You can't throw out a combo of Valdez/Castro there everyday for the next 6-8 weeks.

if people on this blog werent so completely obsorbed with having to be proven right or to prove the other person wrong no one would ever have to come to anyone's defense.

(and I know thats true for the internet as whole and not just this blog -- but this blog wasn't always this bad. I've been reading for years and only started posting to counteract some of the overwhelming negativity)

OOML - pure speculation on my part, but whether it's on sports radio, at party or at a bar a woman's opinion on a sport is more likely to be dismissed simply because of her gender.

I'm not saying it *should* be this way. It was simply one theory for why a poster who seems intelligent about the game - though a bit headstrong - has met some criticism. flipper is similarly headstrong, but not one has compared him (?) to tommy.

I think Heather makes good contributions by the way. Sort of a resident fangraphs person. I like the advanced metrics - I wouldn't say their "wrong" - I just like to figure out what they actually mean (how they're put together) as opposed to using them to rank players.

What does anyone think that it would take to get Carmona from Cleveland? I do not know enough about the prospects so I was hoping someone could shed some light on it for me.

MG - I agree, but if the price is one of the high-end prospects in the low minors (Gose, May, Cosart, Singleton, Santana, etc.) is that really worth it?

And this problem would be much easier to deal with if Charlie would play Polly at 2B and use a Ransom/Dobbs combo at 3B, but he's nothing if not inflexible...

Sophist - Sure. It is like when a male is talking about child-rearing practices. I am willing to bet that a mother would give more stock to another female (especially if she were a mother herself) even if they largely said the same thing.

Back to pitching...Bastardo (who cares) and Durbin coming back. Who gets the boot?

Figueroa has been decent and is really the only guy we have that can take on 3+ innings if needed. Baez stinks but has 2 years salary gtd. Herndon, Rule 5 protection. Wouldn't really miss him but does have a little bit of potential considering his heavy sinker.

Add Happs eventual return, just can't figure out which of these average to below average arms are going to stick.

MG, my guess is that if Amaro could add Wigginton, Johnson, or Lopez or whomever, take your pick, for a low price, he would. It may be the most pressing need over the next 4-6 weeks, but it may not be worth the asking price. From reports, it seemed to be that Amaro & co. made some phone calls after those second opinions on Polanco and Utley and felt the asking price for those types of guys was simply too high.

Who would you be willing to part with for the various IF available? I wonder what their asking price was.

My only wish is that Castro is the casualty when Polanco comes back. I think it's important to have bench players with at least one skill that can be effective. Ransom has a power stroke that can, even if its a rare occasion, have a positive effect on the game. From my vantage point Castro has no skills that would not be compensated for by another bench player.

I guess I should clarify that I hope Castro gets sent to the minors and not cut, just in case massive injuries strike again.

Out of My League: What makes you think Heather is a woman?

Leo, I think with the return of durbin Figeroa gets the toss and the long relief would fall on herndon and contreras... I don't see anyway they give up herndon

MG: I doubt it will be 6-8 weeks. It was 6-8 from the time of the injury, and knowing Utley, it will be on the short side of that anyway. You're probably looking at 4-5 more weeks.

I think Contreras stays as a short relief later inning guy as he's really shined in that role. I think Herndon might suddenly have some blisters/muscle tightness when Durbin/Happ are activated.

Charlie is crafty. He is now in McCann's head. Brian knows now the reason for the Phillies success the last several years and this will grind away in his skull during the stretch in September causing undo stress and probably vision problems again. Oh yeah, Heather is bitterly angry about something and it hangs over her words like a green fog.

When Polanco comes back, there will be no Ransom/Dobbs platoon available. Ransom is headed back to AAA.

Figueroa without a doubt to me, is the first gone, no debate there. After that i guess its more tricky.

For Kelly johnson i would think more along the lines of a Harold Garcia/De Fratus type prosepct - someone with promise more than a high ceiling. Maybe even freddy galvis?

Wow.

Alex Gonzalez, TIm Collins, and Tyler Pastornicky to the Braves for

Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes

Someone's gonna have to make a move for a Lopez/Wiggy/KJ-type guy first to set the market, it seems like. Right now, it seems like no one can figure out an appropriate price for a (soon-to-be) utility infielder.

We should probably be happy our uber-aggressive GM ISN'T the one doing this...so far.

That's a selling low on Escobar, isn't it? He must be a problem.

Damn...Gonzalez gives their offense a nice chunk of power.

Assuming his breakout isn't a fluke and it continues with the trade.

Kind of an odd WIN NOW trade for them to make.

Also reposting:

Actually, I find myself holding back somewhat on some of Heather's more, shall we say questionable, comments - due to the fact that she's a woman.

And I think I wouldn't be alone in that. Right or wrong, Heather's posts tend towards the extreme and inflammatory; considering that, IMO the problem is that she seems somewhat surprised when personal attacks follow her fairly extreme comments.

I mean, seriously, has there ever been a thread at Beerleaguer where that DIDN'T happen?

Well, there have been rumors of major attitude issues with Yunel for a couple years now...still, they sold low on him.

What to believe

1204 games: .249/.295/.398, 11 HR/yr

or

85 games: .259/.296/.497, 17 HR.

The only difference is that HR power. Strange it didn't help his BA at all.

a huge sell low on yunel

To be fair, Gonzalez showed some pop in 07 with the Reds (16 HR in about 110 games) with similar HR/FB numbers as this year's.

He is first in baseball in "Just Enough" HR, though, according to hittracker.com, with 10 (oddly, his teammate is right behind him).

Check out his chart:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2010_54&type=hitter

prediction: he finishes the year with less than 23 HR.

I like Fangraphs...for the graphs.

Is there much to choose between them defensively? Seems like a strange trade.

Given the seasons that they're having, the best-case scenario for the Braves is that Gonzalez gives them a short-term upgrade. Eventually, however, the Braves will come to seriously regret this move. I hope that regret starts kicking in, say, 2 days into this season's 2nd half.

Incredible...

Is there any question that Y. Escobar is the better all-around player?

From MLBTradeRumors:

"An amusing back-and-forth is emerging between agent Scott Boras and ESPN's Buster Olney, with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel trying to be the objective party while relaying Boras' comments.

The discussion began Monday when Boras expounded to Haudricourt on the virtues of his client, Prince Fielder. Boras drew a comparison to another of his clients, Mark Teixeira, who received an eight-year, $180MM contract before the 2009 season.

The following day, Olney posted a blog with anonymous quotes from multiple baseball executives, including GMs, who were concerned by Fielder's hefty body type on a long-term deal. Olney suggested that even now, Fielder is regarded as "one of the worst first basemen in the majors."

Boras was not able to let Olney's comments slide, and Haudricourt has more from the agent in a new blog post today. Boras cited error totals to defend Fielder's defense, and also railed against the use of unnamed sources. Boras added that he's "tired of pundits broadcasting their forecasts of free agent markets in July," and said that Olney's predictions for many of his clients have ended up being low. It'd be interesting to put numbers behind the claim."

Error totals, eh? I guess Boras is an ardent Beerleaguer!

Edward Salcedo probably makes departing with Escobar easier, but still not excuse.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=7543

Sophist, its gotta be as a result of the attitude issue. Besides which, I heard that Escobar cursed out a fan and was having an affair with Chipper's wife.

I think you want to know more about those two prospects before panning the trade. Salcedo, and his attitude/numbers, make Escobar more expendable.

I don't think Gonzalez is going to repeat that performance in the second half, however. I wouldn't necessarily say this is a "win now" move, though.

Yunel Escobar has Freddy Galvis numbers this year.

i heard he was afraid of the outfield wall, lazy, and bad in the clubhouse.

Tim Collins' K and BB numbers, as well as his age/level, make his something of a better Trevor May at this point for instance.

Collins has better K9 and BB9 numbers than May (high K totals, fairly high BB totals - 4-5 BB) but he's just 19. 12.9 K9 in AA.

Compare that to May who's 20 in A+. 11.6 K9 and 7.8 BB9.

Also, Collins is 5-7!

**** I wouldn't necessarily say this is a "win now" move, though.****

I think the Braves think it is...trading an underachieving younger SS for an overachieving older SS having a solid year offensively. I see it as one that could severely backfire on them short-term. Of course, to have it hurt them this year, Gonzalez has to be worse than Escobar has been so far.

Sophist - The asking price was probably incredibly high initially and hasn't dropped much. However, on a guy like Lopez who has an option that is for $4.5M and who is a FA at the end of the year I would figure the Mariners would have to be happy getting two semi-decent prospects instead of potentially nothing at the end of the year.

I would be really surprised if Utley does get clear to come back 2 weeks early by the medical staff and if he is much of a factor offensively.

The other issue is that Valdez has played over his numbers offensivley and probably wil revert. Castro is done being able to play at the MLB level. Normally that wouldn't matter that much but it does if you might think about starting arguably the worst hitter on a MLB roster right now 2-3 times/week and him getting his share of PH appearances.

@NEPP -- post of the day!

Braves trade makes sense on several levels. They are in 'win' now mode and they needed an offensive upgrade at SS even if it does like they gave up a bit early on Escobar. Jo-Jo Reyes is a fringe MLB pitcher. Just organizational filler on a team with decent pitching.

Collins is 5'7"...personally I doubt he holds up long-term.

I think Heather is extremely pessimistic and thats what annoys me about her posts. There is no hope or optimism anywhere.

Collins' height should be less of a problem if he ends up in the BP.

BL (like Clout) does not suffer fools gladly. This can be nice. All the same, BL (like Clout) is needlessly combative and frequently cruel.

For all the constructive (and instructive) dialogue that takes place in this space, there remains an undercurrent of insecurity, even in the most 'knowledgeable' of posters. With a valid counterpoint to an uninformed opinion comes the requisite "and by the by, you're stupid. And I, by extension, am not." Well, I'm glad that's been settled.

It's not good enough to show you are right on BL, you must also prove you are better. So it is a contest, not a discussion. As such, there are winners and losers, not valid and invalid arguments. I wonder why the losers rarely hang around for long?

The result isn't a tight community of super-insightful super-intelligent posters bouncing thoughts off each other. At it's worst, BL is a couple people who agree with each other and the occasional new person being yelled into line, which leaves...a room filled with echoes.

Harrumph.

Not 'win' now mode but see a clear opportunity to win the NL East and have a legit shot to go to the WS this year.

I just don't see it as a pure win now move the way the Halladay trade or CLE-PHI Lee trade last year was, for instance. Escobar has more value than a 33 year old with no on base skills, occasional pop, and solid D.

I think the major motivation behind the move is to get rid of Escobar (whose value they may see as plummeting). Is it important that they get a starting SS back in return? Yeah, since they're in first and it's Cox's last year. If Escobar weren't chemistry trouble, I'm just not sure the move gets made. Since they also got a coupla prospects back and they have a solid SS prospect elsewhere, I don't see it as a pure win now move.

Sophist: I would say that if the price for those guys is high than it isn't worth giving up a good young prospect. It'd be great to add a Johnson, Wiggy, or Lopez type to fill in the gap at second but you are really only getting a 5-6 week rental.

The team is battling for a playoff spot but they need to remember that the reason they are not doing as well is because of injuries. It would be short-sighted to give up one of their better younger guys to rent a player.

Now if the price comes down....then add the guy. I'd imagine as the deadline approaches the price will drop some, but will it drop enough?

I heard the Braves are gonna convert Collins to Third Base to replace Larry.

TTI, I just hope we see *some* Ransom/Dobbs at 3B and Polanco at 2B and not all Valdez/Castro at 2B.

One other think about Escobar

yr: LD - BAbip - HR/FB - BB%

career: 19.0 - .316 - 7.6 - 9.7
2010: 18.4 - .270 - 0.0 - 12.3

If he were 38, he'd be washed up. As it is, he's a bit unlucky it seems.

Escobar is a pretty good SS. Bad 1st half but he's bound to come back. I can't see Gonzales's second half being better than Escobar's. If I think its a bad idea as a Phillies fan, how do Braves fans feel?

Escobar was having a truly awful season and Gonzalez truly his best(even with a OPB under .300).

I would love for the law of averages to kick in full effect this second half.

Although it does kind of scare me that the Braves had a .618 OPS in their lineup for half the year and still are on pace for 98 wins.

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"flipper is similarly headstrong, but not one has compared him (?) to tommy. "

Sophist, that is not true. phlipper, along with tommy, is a charter member of the Sir Alden Trio.

They have, indeed, been grouped together.

Bobby Cox has always despised players with that " me first" attitude which Escobar always had. He couldnt wait to unload his rear end. I agree that this trade benefits the Phils down the line but Gonzalez isnt lackadasical and will not cause Cox any heartburn.

Just heard Scott Graham on a national commercial this week and I remembered that he was a pretty decent announcer for the phils. Does anyone know why they fired him?
Did Wheels have him pushed out?
Was it the FO? If it was based strictly on competence, it seems like he should still be here.

Glancing at a Braves blog... they hate the deal. Almost universally.

It's sad when a major league team can't find someone better than Castro to do what he does.Could it be it would be admitting a mistake to let him go? Like Ibanez/3 yr.,Baez/2yr.,etc.

The Braves get Gonzalez from the Jays. Real good move for them. The Phils have needs but Amaro sits on his hands. If the Phils don't make up 2-3 games real soon it could be along winter.

They will be fine once they get healthy. But what if that takes longer than expected?

"If the Phils don't make up 2-3 games real soon it could be along winter.

They will be fine once they get healthy. But what if that takes longer than expected?"

Find out on Comcast SportsNet!

Nice post, dlhunter. I think you described the milleu at Beerleaguer fairly well - although it was a bit too categorical.

There are, at times, astute people genuinely bouncing ideas off of each other.

But when the habitual need of posters (myself, of course, excluded) to ridicule someone else's opinion (with the foolish misconception that one's own opinion is by it's nature fact) as a way to bolster one's insecure sense of self (as so frequently happens), the trick is to just see it as such and not take it personally. It invariably says much more about the insulter than the insultee.

BB~ I have seen the site yet today. I will check it out. Thanks.

DPatrone: "Real good move for them."

I'm curious, why do you think it's a real good move for them?

I think he likes it b/c it is a move, that's it.

I think Wheels had him "whacked"

CJ~ Because Gonzalez has some pop in his bat. I'm talking about the short-term of course. The Braves have very good pitching. Any upgrade to the offense (even a slight one) has to help.

You see, I know I'm crazy, but I believe the Phils should be way ahead in the division. But the slump and the injuries have hurt.

I do believe that we'll overtake the Mets, but I don't see the Braves just falling apart. And I don't know that if we don't win the division, that we win the wild-card.

Also, I don't see the Phils re-signing Werth and I can't see how they could get value for him in a trade. Even if they did trade him, where is the RH power coming from on this team? Just my opinion is all.

dlhunter: Nice fantasy, but it doesn't pass muster for anyone who's spent much time reading Beerleaguer.

But if believing that floats your boat, go for it!

Dom, if Polly comes back I think the Phils will be OK.

Since finishing April at 9 - 14 (.391) the Braves have gone 43 - 22, a .662 pace, which extrapolates to 107 wins in a season. Do you think the Braves are a 107 win team and can continue to play a a .662 pace?

Do you really think they're that good?

It's certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on the probability.

Overall, the Braves are on pace to win 96 games (.591), ass-u-ming thay can keep a .591 pace up.

Is that possible/probable?

Now, if they do win 96 games, they the Phillies have to go 50 - 25 in their last 75 games to win the division.

How possible/probable is that?

We're gonna find the answer out by October, but the easiest way for the Phils to catch the Braves is to beat them head-to-head.

So far, the Phils are 5 - 7 against the Braves, with 6 to play.

All 6 games are in the last 2 weeks of the season, with the final weekend being a series in Atlanta. It may come down to that.

Which is the better team? Well, even with an injured and depleted lineup, the Phillies have scored 44 runs against the Braves, who have scored 46 vs the Phils.

If the Phils are fully healthy in September it's going to be very interesting.

On Baseball-Reference.com, Alex Gonzalez's most similar batter?

Alex Gonzalez, the one who last appeared in the majors with our own Phils in 2006.

I'm not sure that could excite Braves fans.

DPatrone, switching leagues aside, I bet Escobar outperforms Gonzalez both for the rest of the year and over the next 5 years. I'll give the Braves some credit for knowing something we don't know about Escobar, but I think Cox simply wanted him out.

CJ, is that the same Alez Gonzalez who Carson described as a "no-talent ass-clown"?

Rumor was... there was a scuffle because Wheels tattled on Harry and others about their on the road transgressions. It involved Scott Graham choking Wheels. Again, just a rumor from a friend. I don't know if I'd be able to find a source.

Still fun to imagine Wheels getting choked out though...

The Braves got the short end of the stick on this one. How is AG's defense at SS?

DPatrone: I'm just surprised anyone thinks Gonzalez is an upgrade over Escobar. If all you want to look at is his HR total this year, that's fine.

It's possible that Escobar will be terrible this year. Through his first 36 games, he had an awful .522 OPS. But through his last 39, he's had an OPS of .710, which is still below his career, but better than what Gonzalez usually puts up.

In fact, the 27 year old Escobar has a career OPS+ of 105 and the 33 year old Gonzalez has a career OPS+ of 81.

The Blue Jays pretty much traded for a SS version of Pedro Feliz. No OBP, alleged pop. We'll see how that translates in Atlanta. I wouldn't be surprised if Escobar has more HRs than Gonzalez the rest of the way.

quincy, did Graham pull the hair off?

For a little no account guy with a critter on his head wheels has caused a lot of havoc in the booth and affected a lot of lives in a negative way. That being said, hope he still has enough juice left to alter TMac's career path.

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