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Sunday, July 18, 2010

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DomBrownDomBrownDomBrown

As the comment sections biggest Ibanez defender, I approve.

From the CBA:

A. Definitions

Those Player rights expressly set forth in the Basic Agreement for
which a Player’s eligibility is dependent upon credited Major League
service will be determined as follows:

(1) One full day of Major League service will be credited for
each day of the championship season a Player is on a Major League
Club’s Active List. A total of 172 days of Major League credited
service will constitute one full year of credited service. A Player
may not be credited with more than one year of credited service, 172
days, in one championship season. Major League service will be
computed commencing with the date of the first regularly scheduled
championship season game, through and including the date of the
last regularly scheduled championship season game. This rule shall
apply uniformly to all Players and all Clubs notwithstanding differences
in a particular Club’s schedule.

From language used elsewhere in the agreement, it seems "championship season" means the 162 game season.

I'm down with this. I don't know that I'm thrilled with more Disco Francisco, but the move had to be made.

From last thread

RK: You read it wrong, because you skipped the "AND ranks among the top 17 percent in total service." Brown would be eligible by having more than 86 days of service, but he would not be in the top 17 percent of service time, because so many other rookies have been called up and played since Opening Day. You might remember that Strasburg, Santana and Buster Posey were all called up around the same time in early June--this was when teams had estimated that the top 17 percent cutoff had been made.

At this point, Brown would not be eligible for Super Two status if called up right now, I am sure of that. It's not a financial decision.

Well, at least Rube did the smart thing with a 37-year old player last year and only signed him to a 2-year deal.

Wait, what? He's here again next year, for $11.5 million?

As everyone here knows, Raul has excelled against pitchers whose last name begins with G in Sunday night games.

Jack, is that why they were called up in early June? I thought that had more to do with the Heyward controversary: it kept their 2010 service under a full year, saving a year of team control on the back end. I'm pretty sure that's usually why those players come up in June (like Wieters and Longoria did as well recently).

Although teams definitely push back promotions into June because of Super 2. This seems to backfire, though, since once everyone starts doing it, the Super 2 cutoff will just decrease.

Sophist: No, it's for Super Two purposes. I believe the service time issue as it relates to "full years" passes after 20 days or so. So any time past late April a guy can be called up and still kept for 6 years after that.

Thus, for example, Starlin Castro being called up by the Cubs on May 7.

Teams willing to wait that first month or so, though, are usually willing to wait another month into June to get the Super-Two advantage as well.

Sophist: It's not really true that once everyone begins to do it, the cutoff will move back, because teams only do it for star prospects whose arbitration will be really expensive. For most regular rookies (guys like JA Happ, for instance, last year), the teams aren't really taking it into account, because they're not worried about setting off the exorbitant arbitration costs.

Most rookies are still promoted or make the team based on baseball, not financial reasons. It's only the projected superstars where you really have to take finances and player-control into account.

Jack, yeah, after doing some digging on Wieters and others that seems right. Regardless, Brown is well passed the time any player has been deemed to have Super 2 status. The cutoff would have to decrease dramatically for that to happen at this point.

Jack, I've read reports that it is expected to move back next year.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/06/super-two-cutoff-less-than-expected.html

CAll HIM UP! If he's good who care when he hits arbitration for the first time. The Phills can afford it and if he is a super star he will get big money early anyway (see Ryan Howard) so get him up and lets start winning ball games. Obviously the window on Chase, Ryan and the guys is closing so lets win now.

Jack , if you are right that there are no financial reasons (vis-à-vis Brown’s status) than it's all the more mysterious why a team that is struggling at the plate as the Phils are does not try to energize or shake it up just a little by bringing up a guy who is tearing the cover off the ball (yes I know it’s the minors). It’s hard for the geniuses in the FO to argue he is not ready and Francisco is?

aksmith has moved into the realm of biggest jacka$$ in Beerleaguer history.

He's decided a guy in a slump because he is regularly smoking marijuana. His evidence?

1) Shaggy hair.
2) Shaggy beard.
3) Sunglasses.
4) Arguing with umpires.
5) The suggestion that he has "years of experience dealing with it" which I take to mean he's a pothead himself.

And that's my last comment on the most ridiculous theory in Beerleaguer history.

RK: Ben Francisco posted an OPS+ over 105 for his first 1000 plate appearances in the Major Leagues.

Why wouldn't the Phils believe he belongs in the majors?

I see a lot of clamorning for Brown to get called up, but no one ever seems to address the roster math -- which, in actuality, is probably a key reason why he's still at AAA.

If Brown were to get called up today, I think it's safe to say he'd take Cody Ransom's roster spot. But what about when Utley returns? Who goes? It has to be Dobbs or Gload, right? If it Dobbs, you've left yourself with 3 backup outfielders & only one guy who can play any of the infield positions. If it's Gload, you're going to have to eat not just this year's salary, but next year's $1.6M salary, as well. So who is it?

Marijuana is a banned substance in MLB.

Platoon Werth and Ibanez, bring up D Brown!

If he were taking bong hits between innings, he wouldn't particularly care about striking out. Hence, he'd be a lot LESS likely to argue with umpires over strike calls.

But we might know for sure after the off-season. There's an intiative on the California November ballot to legalize pot. If that initiative passes, and if Werth signs with the Dodgers, Padres, A's, Angels, or Giants, then we'll have definitive proof that aksmith's theory is correct.

K-Rod blows his fifth save of the year for the Mets. Tied now with runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out.

Ump missed the call that would have given Giants the winning run. 1st and 3rd, two outs now. Tie game.

Now the umps miss a call that would have been the third out in the inning.

Not the finest hour for umps in the Mets-Giants game.

"marijuana is a banned substance in MLB"...but massive amounts of liquor are not

And it's going to extra innings. Real shame. Giants had that game won. Wright threw high to the catcher on a grounder to third and the tag came down late.

Well, CJ, as it happens I've never used pot. And I didn't say that's what Jayson's problem is. That's what you infer from what I implied. He may or may not have any number of problems, but I don't know what they may be and either do you. We know he's shown up for games hung over. That's enough for me to say he's got a drinking problem. Unless you think that's not a problem, which puts your drinking habits in more question than my drug using habits.

Johnny - Look out, CJ may take offense. After all, he's the authority.

Haven't seen a lineup posted for tonight, but I guess Raul is out of it. Some runs would be nice tonight, but I'm not counting on them.

And the Mets take the lead again.

i'm with you, ak

As AK notes, CJ completely misread, or didn't read all his posts. He clearly identified alcohol as the possible issue with Werth. To one observer, it is certainly plausible; and as AK's an MD and a BLer, I give his observations on the issue more than passing credence.

I'm the one who suggested aksmith may have meant weed, not ETOH. If CJ, or others want to unleash their hate on me, have at it.

How do we "know" that he has shown up to games hungover? Just because someone alleges something in the Beerleaguer comments section does not make it established fact.

****Why wouldn't the Phils believe he belongs in the majors? ****

They're as reactionary as half the posters on BL are?


Hopefully Francisco picks up his game and becomes the league average guy we all know he's capable of being.


Oh, and BRING UP DOM BROWN!

K-Rod is well over 40 pitches today. I never understand J. Manuel

As much as people complain about Uncle Charlie, J. Manuel makes me glad that we have C. Manuel as the manager.

Joe Torre kept Broxton in for 40 some pitches today too, but he got the loss.

I wonder if Ibanez would be willing to take a buyout that spreads his contract out over several years...say something like $3 million a year for the next 6-7 years instead of what he's gonna make now? Something that allows him to sign with another team if he can find one?

The salary relief next year would be immense.

Anyone who remembers Werth's "performance" after the night when he, Vic, and others had their big MMA party, saw the very definition of "hungover."

****Anyone who remembers Werth's "performance" after the night when he, Vic, and others had their big MMA party, saw the very definition of "hungover."****

Well yeah. However, there are no obvious indications that there's a huge underlying problem with Jayson. Other than a rough month or so and bad luck with RISP (unless the theory is he's drunk only during those ABs), he's still right in line with his peak numbers for the season. He's at a 130 OPS+ for the season despite the terrible slump.

Not sure why Ibanez would agree to that. And I think Ibanez is likely to be better next year than this year. Wasn't he unable to do his normal conditioning in the offseason because of his surgery? And the older you get, the more important that is.

I would like to back up CJ and agree that it is jackassery to speculate that a guy who was having his best ever season and then has a three week slump had that three week slump because of a substance abuse problem.

We've all watched players under the influence do some pretty incredible things. And we rarely ever knew it. Mickey Mantle was absolutely an alcoholic. And he was one of the best there ever was. It shortened his career most likely, but he was hungover a good deal of the time during games. And we never knew about it until he retired.

Performance is not an indicator in the short run. One way or the other.

Wherever you fall on whether someone has a problem or not, I think it's safe to say that Jayson Werth's slump is not three weeks. Maybe time is relative, but he got off to a very hot start, and had another good ten days or so in there, but hasn't his overall poor play been longer than three weeks?

Ah... my mistake.

aksmith is not a jackass because he implies Jayson Werth is a pothead. He's a jackass because he implies Jayson Werth is an alcoholic.

And I'm sorry I said you had experience with being a pothead. You must be a drunk instead. Might explain some of your posts.

aksmith: In that case, why are you citing this (perceived) issue as a reason for getting rid of him?

Its pretty crappy slander to paint a guy as either an alcoholic or drug addict because of a slump. Seriously, unless there's some major proof, its a BS accusation.

CJ, in fact, I also don't drink alcohol. So, it just must be that I'm always wrong and you're always right.

And really, maybe I'm wrong about Werth. I fully acknowledge the possibility. But I've treated enough people with problems over the years, and known a player or two with same, to hope that the Phillies are at least checking it out. When I hear hoofbeats, I don't think zebra.

And I've had this feeling while Jayson was playing well. So it's not like this prolonged slump is what started me being suspicious.

It constantly amazes me that a site formed arond our love for something (baseball, the Phillies), is so often filled with hatred towards one another...

I am not citing it as a reason to get rid of him. I am citing his likely salary as a reason for getting rid of him.

I am citing my suspicion as a reason for getting him help.

And Nepp, if it's slander, I'm far from the first one to either think this or write it.

aksmith: The season is 162 games long. There are ups. There are downs. Most veteran players end up pretty close to their career norms. OPS+ is a pretty good measure of a player's offense. Werth's OPS+ at this moment in time is best of his career. Whatever he's drinking, I'd encourage him to continue.

You may now return to Beerleaguer Fantasy.

****Not sure why Ibanez would agree to that. ****

Because he'd make more money in the end as he's owed maybe $17.5 million now...offer him something like $21-24 million but prorate it out over a longer period so we get salary relief, he gets a nice pension for 7-8 years and even with inflation at least breaks even. And he can still try and latch on with another team regardless. Its something to consider, if not now maybe at the end of the season.

Clout - I know you really don't mean that. But that's the beerleaguer way. You're pretty glib about the possibility that JW has a problem.

Werth looked like he was going to have an all timer of a season at the start. I think even the reality challenged stat head that you are, you can't really think he's been good for the last couple months.

***And Nepp, if it's slander, I'm far from the first one to either think this or write it. ***

Till there's proof that's more than "he got drunk at that UFC event last year", its BS. I know you're not the first one to throw it out there...others have mentioned in the past that Vic & Werth were big potheads without giving proof.

There's no proof of either and there's no proof its effecting his game. Its a dumb accusation.

He'll heat back up...as clout says, its a long season with ups and downs.

Werth would, of course, be the only MLB player in history to indulge in alcohol and marijuana consumption during the season.

Most MLB players are puritanical about such substances...

CJ is just a bit touchy this year.

Werth

April 5 - May 25: 44 games, .327/.403/.641
May 26 - June 22: 22 games: .167/.276/.319
June 23 - June 30: 8 games: .414/.500/.621
July 1 - July 17: 13 games: .208/.304/.271

Sophist, its amazing that you've even able to single out where he's been on the wagon and where he's been off like that...amazing.

NEPP - First, I have never claimed that anyone is a pothead. And I don't know that anyone has a drinking problem. And I'm not attributing a slump to being a substance abuser.

I thought Werth might have a problem when he was playing well. So, heating up has nothing to do with it.

And it's not an "accusation" it's a concern.
If he has a problem, I hope he gets help. Like I said in the previous thread, Darrell Porter was an acquaintance when I was younger, a friend of a friend. And he was the first pro athlete who I knew that had a drinking problem. He hid it well, but there were signs when I looked back.

I've treated athletes over the years who you would know. The instance of drinking problems is very high in the athlete demographic. As high as cops, which is very high. And that's completely independent of drug use.

So, take it for what it's Werth. I observe JW from across the country and something seems not right. I have a pretty good sniffer for such things. Not infallible, but not clueless either.

NEPP - my guess is that Werth has another 30-50 game streak in him.

Are we really judging a guy because of his hair and beard? I take comfort in the fact that some things in life never change.

mets win is good for the phils since we need to be ahead of the giants if we don't win the division and we are already ahead of the mutts

White Sox fan just blamed booze for Jenk's blown save today, so I guess it's a meme? FWIW, I think Charlie hit the nail on the head earlier this season: Werth is thinking about that contract.

Okay. Time to hammer me without rebuttle. The game's actually on TV out here today, so I'll be watching it on the elliptical and total gym. A lot easier than dragging my laptop to the exercise room.

aksmith: So, back on May 12, did you really think this 31-year old player with a career .267 average and an .833 OPS was going to hit .345 with a 1.104 OPS?

Can't resist. If Jenks blew a save, it's more likely he has Blanton Disease.

BAP - here's the deal. I thought he had a problem as far back as last year. And he played very well for the most part last year. Drinking has nothing to do with performance, until it does. And it may never. Some people can't perform unless they're smashed. I have known surgeons who I would never trust sober, but were tremendous drunk.

I wrote what I wrote. I think he may have a problem. I hope I'm wrong.

So, I think there's a game here at some point.

Oh, and alcohol is a drug. Just thought I'd throw that in.
On to baseball.

Hair length means nothing. Back when I was in college, I had hair down past my shoulders and I never abused any substan-- . . . er, never mind.

BAP, I agree. I cut my hair a long time ago and I still abuse...er, never mind.

I've been calling for a Dom Brown promotion for a couple weeks now, but I don't see LV games so I have no idea what his defense is like right now with regard to routes, hitting the cutoff man, playing smart etc. I do know he's got a great arm and speed. If his technique is correct on defense then I cannot think of a reason why he shouldn't be promoted unless they have an arbitrary AB number (i.e. "Let's give him at least 100 ABs in Trip A before we take the next step.")

Just that one bad night after a Wagner blown save back in Sept. '06 but the other guys in the cell were innocent too and

aksmith: Apparently you skipped over this part of my post or didn't undersatnd it so I'll repeat:

The season is 162 games long. There are ups. There are downs.

Right now Werth is down. He had been up. Up. Down. Can you guess which direction is next?

Taken all together his season has been his best ever offensively.

Get it?

Nice work legging that out by Polly.

Yeah, Clout. I think I actually understood your thesis there.

Apparently, you didn't read my post. Performance is not the reason that I think Werth may have a problem.

I though he might have a problem in a season he went to the all star game. And the WS. And I though he might have a problem when he was hitting over .300 with power.

And he's certainly due for improvement if he's to revert to the mean. But nothing is guaranteed in human events.

They seem to be hitting this guy pretty hard.

If Brown is going to get HBP in his next AB after a two out rbi single against Louisville's LeCure who started 6 games for the Reds, the Phils should just have him ride the bench to protect him.

Howard & Vic need to learn how to hit those screaming line drives away from where the fielders are standing.

Lots of hard hit outs for the Phils, and then two GB hits for the Cubs.

Vic & Howard smash balls right into the defenders' mitts; the Cubs' first 2 hitters hit dribblers that fall between the cracks for hits.

The Baseball Gods are against us.

Boy, it's neat to see a team whose top-order hitters hit the ball on the ground.

Every day, Beerleaguer comes up with a new dumbest topic every. Today, it's Werth is a drunk thanks to our resident jackass, aksmith.

His evidence is that he's watched him on TV and has a good sniffer.

Well, that's enough for me to make a firm conclusion. My conclusion?

aksmith is a troll. I'm done feeding him.

I would have asked for a triple play, but without the Gnome, it just ain't gonna happen.

Man, he's good

That Halladay fella is a keeper.

Nice work by Roy to get out of that inning and quickly. Now Im sure we all cant wait to see Ben Fran up to bat.

Nice drunk walk there.

I'm amazed a guy that drunk could make it down the line.

DONT BUNT!


I was all set to congratulate Charlie for removing J-Roll from the leadoff spot & breaking up the order w/ Polanco in between, only to realize he's got them batting RH vs. a LHP w/ a notable reverse split.

*sigh*


Also, Werth has been worse than Ibañez for the past 50 games or so, which is going on a full 1/3 of the regular season. That's awful.

Good to see Jayson running.

I believe that ak is using the same methodology in identifying JW as an alcoholic that Bill Frist used to determine that Terry Shiavo was not in a persistent vegetative state.

I don't buy the "I'm a doctor, I know these things" nonsense.
Hanging a label like that on another person without any actual evidence is totally unethical. AK, you are behaving like a know-it-all ass.

Back to baseball.

Valdez taking a walk?

Feels like a win!

I checked Worth's numbers. Overall they are currently similar to his previous years in Philly:
His batting AVG, OBP and SLG are similar.
His HRs and SOs are not as good.
His RBIs and total bases are somewhat better and doubles are much better.
It would be hard to complain about his stats.

I thought they had an interesting stat on Halladay. Pretty sure they said with bases empty he's 53rd in the league; it's when he gets runners on that he's awesome. (That last adjective is my word, not Jon Miller's, in case you were wondering.)

Werth is unusual in that he prefers booze then cheers! from the crowd.

Its weird to think that a pitcher who has a perfect game this year is 53rd in the league with the bases empty.

And there's your ballgame. Admit it.

Damn.

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