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Friday, July 16, 2010

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This organization is waving a white flag right now. I'll be suprised if they prove me wrong.

J.w.: If you think the Phils will slowly fall back while Utley is out, to my mind, that basically means season = over.

Everything sucks today.

JWERTH struck out looking...

not once...

not twice...

but thrice...

Jayson Werth... the Big Problem TM

Can we trade for Marmol?

Anyone have any pics of the bucket of balls we'll get for Werthless?

I wasn't one who was particulary excited about the sweep of the Reds. Unrepeatable type of things happening there.

I heard some weird George Sherrill rumore today? Is there any weight to that? It seemed to die down fast, which is fine by me I might add. Unless he's replacing Baez, why bother?

So, so happy I benched Werth for the 5th straight week in my FBB league.

At least Ryno is being his typical 2nd half self.

4 for 9 with 3 HRs/6 RBI so far after the AS break.

werth to betty ford clinic....brown to philadelphia....NOW

There is no excuse for leaving Brown to tear up AAA ball while the Phillies corner outfielders look like more of a joke w/ each passing day. Refusing to do so is stubborn, short-sighted & stupid beyond belief.

A huge morale boost would be bringing up Dom Brown and starting him in LF and maybe occasionallin in RF.

The season feels like its slipping away.

This is so extremely frustrating. I want to complain that they've completely stopped running but they don't even get on base enough to make the argument. What happened to working the counts and getting into teams bullpens?

We are making the Cubs pitching staff look like the best staff in the league. Just an ungodly number of strike outs these last two games.

Bloodstripes:
Is that an intentional Decendents reference?

It was entertaining in the last thread reading BAP desperately trying to declare Rollins' career 'in decline.' What's with the fetish for ending a player's career so prematurely? BAP was at the head of the "Moyer is done" bandwagon last year and was on Ibanez from the 2nd inning of Opening Day. Now Rollins is becoming washed up. Anyone else you want to add to the list?

Although Blanton pitched well enough to win today the Phillies had 4 hits again today. Luckily, two of them were HRs or the Phillies may not given Madson the opportunity to throw the gopher ball. I guess he also saved Lidge from giving up runs in the botton of the 9th. Put both Werth and Madson on trade wire. Werth looks like he is on another planet! Still don't understand why you pitch Moyer and Blanton to start second half rather than Hamels and Halliday when you have the Cards right behind the Cubs. Is there an admin reason for designating Figueroa and keeping Baez? We sure making it easy for the Braves1

JW: Why is Charlie part of the list of things gone wrong here? Sure, his handling of the bullpen has been questionable at times, but this team simply isn't hitting. If we were averaging 5 runs a game still, we'd be neck and neck with Atlanta; instead, however, between injuries to Utley and Polanco, and bad seasons for several regulars, we've gone from an offensive powerhouse to the Padres.

That Strasburg kid is on the decline.

.270/.303/.508 (inflated by those 4 HRs but still) is the line for Valdez over the past month. He has just gone into the tank this month just like everyboyd in the lineup.

Iceman: So I'm 1 for 2. I was wrong about Moyer, right about Ibanez. That's a decent batting average.

Funny, though, I don't recall "declaring" Rollins finished. I said, IF he finishes the year in the .240 or .250 range again, then you've surely got to acknowledge the strong likelihood that this is the hitter he has become. Seems pretty uncontroversial to me that, if a 32-year old player hits .250 two years in a row, he should be looked upon as a .250 hitter going foward, & his value should be judged accordingly.

But not on Beerleaguer. Last year, when Rollins hit .250, the conventional BL wisdom was that it was an off year, that he performed to "career norms" in the 2nd half, etc. All fair enough, I'd say, since he'd been such a good player & wasn't terribly old. But this year, he's hitting .240 and the conventional BL wisdom is that it's all because of an injury -- even though he's healthy enough to be playing & isn't exactly hobbling around on the field.

To be sure, there could well be truth in some or all of these explanations. Or it might just be that he's in a non-injury related slump & will come around & finish with good numbers. I just find it sort of amusing that the guy has now been a .250 hitter over his last 800 ABS, & conventional Beerleager wisdom can't even conceive of the possibility that is staring them straight in the eye. And, if you dare mention that possibility -- even if you do so in hypothetical terms or you hedge your bets with multiple caveats, as I did -- 20 people immediately jump out of the woodwork to: (a) mischaracterize what you said; and (b) ridicule what they just mischaracterized.

One small piece of good news. Polanco was 3 for 3 in his rehab game in the GCL today. So now we know that Polanco is sufficiently healed to hit 18-year old high school pitching.

****That Strasburg kid is on the decline. ****

Yeah, he's barely in the Top 5 of all MLB Pitchers right now.

This is how good he is when he's being held back on pitchcount...how good will he be when he's let loose? Scary to think about (if he stays healthy).

I really hope he does though as he's great for the game and now that the media circus has died down, you can simply appreciate him as a great pitcher. Sucks that he's on an NL East team.

If Polanco has no pain, he should be activated immediately. Even rusty, he can't be a worse option than our current clusterfvck (minus Howard) of an offense.

I hate having to play for the Wild Card, but Atlanta's lead is getting up there now. And the Phils have shown no signs in 2 months of putting any sort of good streak together. No consistancy in play. Win a few. Lose a few. That's the 2010 Phils.

I wonder if its not the best thing going forward, to look more towards 2011 and make decisions that are more in line with next year. If you don't think Werth or Ibanez or Blanton or Francisco or whoever is going to be a part of the 2011 Phils, then maybe trading them now (for something) would be best.

Doesn't mean you would be "waving the white flag" on 2010. It would be a "re-adjustment" of the roster, that is obviously not getting it done (for various reasons) in 2010.

The core of the team would still be solid and capable of winning games. And if you still make the playoffs (with all of the crippling injuries), that's just the cherry on top.

Holding on to what you have and still thinking you can win a WS in 2010, just seems a bit stupid at this point. This team isn't a WS team in 2010 (and at this point, its about winning the damn thing again and not just "being a part of the post-season"). Not feeling the vibe this year. It still might be a playoff team. But that's about it. Too much age and too much wear-and-tear, mentally and physically, to too many people. It happens like that sometimes. Happened to the Yanks a few years ago. They re-tooled and regrouped. Seems to be happening to the Phils in 2010.

The Phils COULD be a WS champion team in 2011 though, if they make the right moves in the next few weeks going forward.

NEPP,

I thought I heard somewhere that Polly would likely be activated for Saturday's game in Chicago.

He has been a huge loss.

The Big Man hits his 3rd homer in 2 games and no love?

If Polly can come back, push Vic down a bit and maybe spark something, we've got a chance. Still, Polly coming back won't wake up Werth/Ibanez, won't effect having Valdez out there every day, etc etc.

Better than not having him though.

****The Big Man hits his 3rd homer in 2 games and no love?****

Best player on the team right now...not named Roy that is. Best hitter on the team and the only guy with a pulse it seems.

It's not like Utley was ripping the cover off the ball when he was playing. It's a total team effort. Failure of (clutch) hitting, clutch starting pitching, relief pitching, injuries. Call it a team-wide off-year.

Collective WS Hangover?


I dont really buy that.

They are 6 games back with 73 to go. That is not insurmountable by any stretch.

Definitely not insurmountable but its starting to look tougher the longer they go without the offense turning it around.

They need to wake up and play like they're capable of playing.

denny, I'm with you. As aggravating as this team has been this year, it's not time for a panic-driven overhaul. This team has all of the components to take them to the playoffs, where anything can happen.

Simply put, the components just aren't performing up to expectations, for whatever reason (injuries, age, and a slew of other potential intangible factors that may or may not have anything to do with Utley's wife -- I kid). That said, some tweaks are in order and I think that most on here follow that mindset, rather than the radical "blow it up and start all over" line of thinking. I, personally, feel that Dom Brown would do some good to kick start at least a minor shift in approach, which might be good for the team as a whole.

Sadly, the solution is somewhere between "stand pat" and "radical move," and I don't know how much faith anyone has in the self-proclaimed genius from Stanford to be able to handle adequately. My biggest fear is a move that puts this team in the hole for a couple of years, just for the sake of PR or looking like they're making an effort (something like giving up the farm for Haren).

**** As aggravating as this team has been this year, it's not time for a panic-driven overhaul. This team has all of the components to take them to the playoffs, where anything can happen.***

Agree completely on this. No panic moves. Bring Brown up to help out, maybe get a 2nd tier starter if the price isn't prohibitive and hope that they get healthy.

JW - I can't blame Valdez or put him in the category that you did. The guy gets his hits for a 8th hitter, and his fielding is excellent. He will stick and Dobbs will be sent down later when Utley comes back. (this has happened once already)

Brew crew 4 Braves 0 in the 3rd. Good start.

Can't worry about Braves losing,have to find a way for Phils to win.

The one thing I have been encouraged about in regards to Rube and trade rumors is the fact that he wants guys who will be here 2011 and beyond. So no "quick fixes" or 2 month rentals. No "old guys" at the end of the rope.

Might be best for both parties at this point to move Werth along. He simply doesn't look right and hasn't looked "into it" most of the year. His mind looks miles and miles away from the field most nights. To just stand there like a rookie and take 3 strikes in the 9th inning today, was inexcusable. Why are you even out there in the 3 hole, if you aren't trying to swing the bat?

Not sure what is going on with him, but he probably just needs to go somewhere else for a few months and then try and sign a big contract in the off-season. You could probably get 3 good players for him (one major league guy and 2 good prospects) from a team. Might as well do it now, before his play continues to lower his value.

Ibanez desperately needs to be either traded or at the least, demoted. He should not be out there everyday anymore. Been saying that for over a month now and its a old song. Great guy. Still tries hard. Not a everyday NL outfielder anymore on a good team.

Vic needs to be put on notice as well. He is a notoriously "dumb" player, who plays more on energy and hustle then he usually does on baseball acumen. He is talented though and adds a lot to the team, when he is focused and not a main focus of the attack. But the consistant gaffe's and mental midgetry (he probably swings at more pitches out of the strikezone then about anyone in the NL), has to be greatly reduced. He has to drive the Phils nuts and I know he drives Charlie nuts. Might be the only current member of the OF to return in 2011. But he would be no lock to come back either.

The only worry I would have with Brown, is expecting too much too soon. If you could move him up and let him settle in to the lineup in the 6 or 7 hole, that would be ideal. I'd love to see him get his feet wet though at the end of 2010 and have him ready to go then in 2011. We have to remember, he was at Clearwater at this time last year.

Of the starting pitchers, Doc, Hamels and Kendrick should be back in 2011. Moyer is a big question mark. Have to see how he finishes. A one year deal is all he should get anyway, if you want him back. Blanton probably needs to go. If you can pay for some of his salary, he'd probably still have decent value with teams in the offseason.

HAVE to get Happ back healthy in 2011. His loss has been a big one. He was the 2nd best starter for most of 2009. He's thrown 10 innings in 2010. Getting him back into the 3 hole in the rotation would be huge.

If you bring back Moyer for a year, hopefully a few of those hot-shot pitcher prospects in A and AA ball are ready to go by 2012. He would be the "bridge" before a Cosart or a Colvin or a Ramirez is ready to move up.

Bullpen should have a few open spots (like usual) in 2011, but its an area where the club has very good depth throughout the minor league system. And Gillick/Rube have had nice success finding bargain veteran guys (Park, Contreras, Durbin, Eyre) to fill spots out there.

And you have to wonder how much longer Cholly is going to want to do this. Could there be a change in that spot by 2011 or 2012? Very possible.

No "wholesale" changes are needed. Some tweaking and "adjusting" is needed though to help trim some age/$$$ off the team and bring some youthful/HUNGRY energy back to the team.

And that tweaking should start, IMO, ASAP. Because the core of the team (Utley, Howard, Ruiz, Halladay, Polanco, Hamels, Rollins) are all either in their primes or likely about to exit their primes. And if you can't win it all in 2010, you need to go after 2011 and 2012 very hard.

A bit off topic, but this is interesting in light of Hamels's day/night splits:

http://www.kansascity.com/2010/07/15/2086987/the-royals-set-their-rotation.html

Brian Bannister for his career has been a much better pitcher during the day, so the Royals are going to set their rotation so that he gets more day starts. I wonder if it would be worthwhile to do the same thing with Hamels.

And by "same thing" I mean rearrange the rotation to accommodate Hamels's splits.

"Can't worry about Braves losing,have to find a way for Phils to win."

Actually, you have to worry about the Braves losing, since they are ahead of the Phils, unless you are more worried about the Mets being in the race at the end.

GSS: I've been proposing that idea for, oh, at least 3 years now. But Cholly seems to do just the opposite. I think I read on BL that 3 of Cole's next starts will be in day games.

In fairness, he has actually been pretty goood in day games this year. He's still considerably better in night games (a .246 BAA, 1.25 WHIP & 3.65 ERA, compared to .269, 1.43, and 3.93), but the difference isn't nearly as stark as it has been in past seasons. But I still think there's no reason whatsoever not to at least try, when possible, to leverage his starts so that more of them come at night.

The Phils are in a win win situation. If they continue to go south . Trade Werth for all he is worth. Bring up Dom and let it play out.
If they get their mojo back then we can pray when Lidge makes an attempt to capture 2008.

This reminds me of 1979 when Phils got Pete Rose after winning in 76-78. Maybe this is the same like us getting Roy let's forget this year . We will be back in heaven in 2011.

Denny I agree with most of what you say. The only thing I will say is that I would have a greater rope with Blanton than you seem to. His track record for the last 3 years has been of a decent pitcher--not great, but a guy who gives you a lot of decent quality starts. He's been decent for us both in 08 and 09. It's possible he just doesn't have it anymore, but it's possible the oblique injury is still bothering him and/or has messed up something in his delivery he is still working out.

If the Phillies are going to contend in 2011 and 2012 it will be without the tired old boob presently in the dugout. His lucky streak is over.

IF BAP is right about Rollins then we can acknowledge BAP is a poster with foresight and an astute eye.

But BAP is almost always wrong in his glum declarations (Moyer, KK, Dobbs, how the team will finish etc.) and he's likely to be wrong on Rollins.

I defy anyone who truly thinks the Phils are done for the season to stop following the team.

clout: No foresight or astute eye is needed. I can read a stat line & I can see that, in his last 800 ABs, Rollins hasn't been a good hitter (caveat: he has actually been good at drawing walks this year, but I don't see much reason to think that will last).

For the record, Rollins is my favorite player & I actually believe he WILL come around and have decent final numbers this year. Exactly why I believe this -- in the face of an 800-AB sample size to the contrary -- I have no idea. Sometimes I guess I'm just a blind optimist.

"punch less" is right on target.
It does seem odd to me that in an era when other teams bring up promising rookies out of AA and they seem to succeed that it is a bit strange that the Phils are not experimenting a little with Brown. After all if he takes off than some people could become expendable. Or is this once again being penny wise and pound foolish by keeping him down at the farm to avoid arbitration a year earlier. I recall they did this with both Utley, and Howard. We might have been battling for the 4th pennant in a row not saving those dollars.

bap, Bannister has a more pronounced split that seems to have grown over his career which I think gives the Royals more incentive to try this experiment. I have no idea how to work out the logistics of such a thing, or whether it would be worth the effort in Hamels's case since, as you say, his splits are less dramatic. I'm just kinda fascinated by the fact that Hamels and Bannister seem to be some sort of weird pitching alter egos.

Another frustrating loss in a season full of them

Heather-

My thought with Blanton is that he could still (even as bad as he's been) net you something of value either now or in the off-season.

He's a league average starting pitcher. A nice #4 starter on a good team. He's been anything but that this year, but you are right.

Maybe he does come back in 2011, if Moyer is let free. Still all comes back to Happ though. If he can come back healthy and can come anywhere near his 2009 ability, he's your #3 starter. Blanton slots in at #4 and you have Kendrick at #5. A solid starting staff.

If you decide you want to try and upgrade the top of your staff (with the money you save from not re-signing Werth and Francisco and trading Ibanez/Blanton/??? (along with some other money off the books, I believe) maybe Happ slides back to #4 and KK is #5.

A couple different ways you can go.


BTW, Dougie Glanville is a nice guy and obviously very intelligent. But he is not very good on Baseball Tonight.

Brewers 9 Braves 3.
Happily, Phils don't lose ground.

I want to remind the many who wrote including JW "wait till Utley returns" that we had Utley; he was none too effective recently and at the time we said: "wait till Rollins returns".
I have to go back many years to think of a Phillies team that loses games like today --regularly!
It’s not about Utley or Rollins; it’s about a team that is not playing like a team unless you want to say they are playing like a bad team.

I really don't want Brett Myers pitching for the Mets as rumors have it. I can see him fouling off thirty pitches every time up against Phils pitchers before ripping one down the right field line.

clout: "But BAP is almost always wrong in his glum declarations (Moyer, KK, Dobbs)"

Um clout... Moyer KK and Dobbs have all been demoted at some point in the last year because of their poor performance. Moyer pulled from the rotation, KK to the minors, and Dobbs DFA'd! How could you call BAP wrong?! because Dobbs is hitting .190 on the season? Because both KK and Moyer have ERAs near 5?

So if rollins gets demoted to backup SS this year and finds his way back in the starting role by 2011 hitting like .250, BAP will be "wrong" to have a gloomy prediction?

"But I digress. Werth, Blanton, the bullpen, Wilson Valdez, the manager. Take your pick, really. The Phils are headed in the wrong direction for countless reasons."

How does Blanton make it in that group today?

Bobby D-

Blanton walked a pitcher who hadn't scratched a hit all year to give the Cubs one run. And then after a 2 run dinger by the only guy hitting in your lineup gave you a 2 run lead, proceeded to give the lead right back up by giving up a 2 run bomb of his own in the next half inning.

Blanton was better (which would hard not to be) then he's been most of the year. But he still wasn't good enough to matter and good enough to win a game the Phils should have closed out.

Interesting stuff from Ryan Lawrence:

Jayson's Werth Tumbling

He sure does act for all the world like a guy who knows he won't be back, & can't wait to leave. I wonder if we'll get treated to the Manny Ramirez "You can't fire me, I quit!" routine before it's all said & done?

This can't be a fun time for him. He sure doesn't look like he's enjoying himself.

@ TEB 33, yes it was intentional.

Does Polly play tomorrow?

I'd say depressing stuff from Ryan Lawrence. Werth just needs to keep doing what he's doing. what a joke. Maybe he'll take his frustration on the media out on the field and decide to swing a bat (and hit the ball) once in awhile.

"We should not not have allowed ourselves to expect that this years Phils would be a continuation of last year's. Never assume."

Yo, new thread

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