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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

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Jamie Moyer cannot be killed by conventional means. He'll be back.

that graphic is macabre

tough break for Moyer

Possible trade chip:
Matthew Rizzott/1B- 24 years old and has a ridiculous line of .356/.425/.590 (1.015 OPS), 56 r, 117 h, 27 2b, 16 hr, and 66 rbi in 93 games split between Clearwater and Reading.

My season over graphic.

I know it's not as exciting as possibly getting Halladay or Lee like last year but I love hearing the Phils are involved in trade talks. Its fun to hear possible deals and outcomes.

This year is probably a wash...thats ok, if we have a strong starting rotation next year and everyone stays healthy we should be right back in contention.

If you think about what people are calling this year, "the year of the pitcher," it's no wonder why we're not doing well.

Will Roy Oswalt be on the Phils' roster for his start Saturday? Any "new" news. Last I saw was this.

10:44pm: Olney and Stark hear that the Rays are discussing possible trades for Werth (Twitter link). The Phils are working "very, very aggressively" to move Werth, who has $2.85MM remaining on his 2010 salary (Twitter link).

Meanwhile, Price reports that talks regarding Oswalt are ongoing between the Phillies and Astros.

Werth to Rays. Rays' prospects to Houston. Oswalt to Phils?

What about 2b? I'm all for Oswalt, Haren, or a mysterious young pitcher, but there's still the ghastly sight of Valdez in the IF.

I sometimes think Rube likes to make the big trade just so he can make the big trade...with no real long-term plan. Same with the big contract extension.

I see a pattern developing. Three losses following a win, then a win followed by three losses. That means the Phillies will win tonight. You can book it. Bet the house. Enjoy the win as it will be followed by three more losses ad nauseum.

NEPP- I think the same thing about Rube. He's like a kid in a candy store spending foolishly on all the sugary goodness to only have it become nauseating and puke in the end.

The Phillies are his FBB team.

Ouch. Just read the end of the last thread. I guess my last post was discussed to death already.

Sorry. I've been out of the loop.

What good is this trade going to do? By the time it's made the team will be 5 games back in the WC behind 4 teams.

CONSPIRACY THEORY ALERT!!!!!

Of all the Phillies hitters who benefited from Billmeyer's Binoculars, it was Jayson Werth who benefited the most. Maybe Werth is terrible with pitch recognition and only blossomed as a offensive force with the Phils while aided from sign stealing. Now that he is no longer tipped off to what pitch is coming, he can't hit. The Phillies know this and know that he is never going to be that right-handed threat again as they can no longer feed him what pitch is coming. Therefore they are shopping him knowing that they will be able to get good value for a player that really is not that good.

So trading Werth now for a top tier starter is a huge coup for RAJ.

(PS: I don't believe a word of what I just typed, but I thought I would float it out there just for fun)

If we are able to spin a departing Jayson Werth into a long-term solution in the rotation, that's a net win for us...even if it doesnt help this year, having Halladay/Hamels/Oswalt will help us big time in 2011.

I think it's dumb to give up on the season yet as a fan. Yeah they are struggling but they are still well within catching the Wild Card.

Trading Werth, maybe adding Oswalt, and calling up Brown may be the type of thing that shakes them out of their doldrums. With 69 games they still have both options in play but the sand in the hourglass is getting low.

Oswalt has a no trade clause and a $16M option in 2012.

I can't imagine a trade where Oswalt waives his clause without getting his option guaranteed.

NEPP: You hit the nail on the head right there. We need to consider 2010 a lost year and look to 2011. IF the Phillies land Oswalt or Haren, tons of posters will start bitching about Lee and RAJ, when the reality is that they don't understand what RAJ is trying to do.

Going into the 2011 offseason, our focus would be on the bullpen and a possible OFer.

****Oswalt has a no trade clause and a $16M option in 2012.

I can't imagine a trade where Oswalt waives his clause without getting his option guaranteed.
****

Neither do I. Overall, that's probably about market value for Oswalt though. Definitely not a bargain.

When it is July and you are already looking at the WC as your way into the playoffs then there is not much hope for the rest of the season.

I agree the Werth trade bringing back Oswalt helps a lot more in 2011.

Just looking as Oswalts stats this year... Looks like a 7 inning type of guy, pretty evenly split GB/FB ratio, low era/whip/BB, high Ks...

I agree with NEPP, I think Werth for Oswalt would be a win...

Though that ball went off his foot earlier this week... Anyone know the status of that?

A rotation in 2011 of

Halladay
Hamels
Oswalt (splits the RHPs)
Blanton
Happ

Is arguably the best in the NL next season. We'd match up well against STL and SF when it comes to a great Starting 5. Our offense will have some major question marks though.

How many pigs are in the bus to St.Louis this morning?

Gentlemen, we can rebuild him. We have the technology.

Oswalt has said in interviews that he plans to retire at the end of the 2011 season.

If they trade for Oswalt, will the move be accompanied by the salary-dump of Hamels?

I know, that was cruel. Had to find a way to get Lee back into this.

But seriously, I doubt moving Werth in a 3-way trade will be enough to land Oswalt. Phils will still be kicking in prospects, and I am not feeling like a buyer these days. Guess RAJ has more confidence than many of us in the core turning it around this year. At least with Halladay/Hamels/someone-other-than-Blanton-Moyer-Pitcher-X-from-within, there's solid hope of a win more than half of the time. So why am I not excited by this? To make up either 7 on Atlanta or jump over 5 other teams for the WC would mean a Colorado 2007-like stretch run. Still possible, I guess, but I think there are too many holes to plug. I think Rollins, Blanton, and Madson are still hurt, which doesn't even consider Utley and what level he'll be able to play at. Moving Werth and prospects for a good starter gives the team some hope, but I'd almost rather keep the prospects and sell. Guess I'm just another Philly frontrunner...

***Oswalt has said in interviews that he plans to retire at the end of the 2011 season.***

I so dont buy that.

Much of a boundless optimist as I am, I have trouble imagining that the Rays or any other team would give up enough in a trade for a slumping, short-term Jayson Werth that would allow us to obtain an under-control ace like Oswalt, unless Ed Wade is a Phillies sleeper agent placed inside the Houston organization to destroy it from within. (Quite possible, given the track record.) I'm thinking it's going to take whatever we get for Werth PLUS something very significant from our farm system (Singleton, Colvin) and/or our ML roster (Happ) to make it happen. If he accepts anything less, Wade had better head to the nearest friendly embassy immediately after making the trade, because his cover is blown.

What happens to the lineup if Werth is gone. Who is our right handed bat. Does Ben Francisco become a full-time starter.

Yes, I know about Domonic Brown. He is a lefty though.

Too many injuries = no WFC

Cards are said to be gunning for either Westbrook or Haren.

Someone obviously feels they have a legit shot at the World Series this year...can't say I can argue with them on that.

2010 is over. No need to worry about 2B. Olney was on 97.5 this morning and was talking about Oswalt to Phillies and Werth to Rays like mentioned above. I hope Rube gets a quality return for Werth. With the Rays involved, you would hope the Yankees and/or Red Sox would drive up the price.

RAJ can justify trading for Oswalt when he just traded Lee by pointing to having Oswalt under control for 2.5 years.

Bobby: Yeah the trade of "he who walks behind the rows" is not analogous to the Phillies trading for Oswalt- but that will not stop the mental midgets from trying to compare the two.

Good point BobbyD.

And its sort of a win-win: Werth hasn't been producing this season and was going to be gone next season. Best case scenario the trade shakes things up, Dom Brown comes up and plays well, and the team contends for the WC this season. Worst case scenario the team doesn't contend this season, which they probably weren't going to do if you kept Werth, but you've got a fantastic rotation next season. I'm all for getting Oswalt if its basically a Werth/ Oswalt swap (though I'm not sure it would be).

Fans are fickle. Everyone knows that, so if the fans want to give up on the season with 2 months to go, that is their prerogative, but the organization does not have the right to throw the season away at this point.
That graphic is a bit disturbing, yet has a combination of "Six Feet Under" and "The Holy Grail".
"Jamie is not dead yet"

"but the organization does not have the right to throw the season away at this point"

Actually, they not only have the right, they have the obligation to give up on the season if they believe continuing to go for it this year will hamstring them long term.

As disturbing as that probably is to hear.

I'm not counting Moyer out 'till the graphic shows a stake through his heart.

If MOyer comes back I'd expect it in a reliever role... Maybe the CloseR? he might be able to crank it up to 87 mph when the adrenaline starts going...

Priceless graphic, writeup, and first comment. I too felt the "grim finality," not for the Immortal Wonder, but for the Phils. Regardless, I'm still not ready to jump ship on the season.

With all the trade talk, it's probably time to revisit Hitler's initial reaction to Rube's promotion in late November 2008:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeBti-vMhbQ

NEPP - if I'm not mistaken, first you said that Amaro makes moves without consideration of a long term plan, and then you said that trade he's rumored to be considering fits with a long term plan you support.

So, in other words, RAJ may do exactly what you think he should do, but if he does it, it isn't because he's doing the right thing, but only because he makes moves without thinking. OK, now I think I got it.

phil, I'm with you on that.

Heather, you proved my point about fans. In any case, couldn't disagree more. I'm not saying the Phils don't have a future (of course they do) but this team is built to win now. They are not the Natinals or the Pirates.
You can stop watching them, but they can't stop playing.

Oswalt will be a rental,after 2010 RAJ will trade him for 3 so called prospects.

****NEPP - if I'm not mistaken, first you said that Amaro makes moves without consideration of a long term plan, and then you said that trade he's rumored to be considering fits with a long term plan you support. ****

It would be fixing the mistake of giving up Outlander while admitting that 2010 is basically a wash. Its better than not admitting the mistake.

Should never had moved Lee ? This year is much more about what we don't see on the field, I got to think that behind closed doors the clubhouse has some problems, what the issues are we will never know ?

This season for the Phillies has reached a level of absurdity nearly unimaginable to either the team or the fans.

It is nearly unbelievable.

Specifically, this has gone SO FAR in the opposite direction of preseason expectations, I cannot see how this type of downward spiral can continue.

Thus, I am hereby sticking my neck out on the BL chopping block, and am prediciting a complete turnaround for this team.

The will rebound. They will make the playoff. They will win the division.

****Oswalt will be a rental,after 2010 RAJ will trade him for 3 so called prospects.****

The really scary thing is that I could see that happening with the justification of "We need payroll relief to sign bullpen help" or some other BS excuse.

Should say:

"They will rebound. They will make the playoffs. They will win the division."

Those endless debate clips are absolutely hilarious.

Does anyone have a link to a list of the full series?

The offense will recover and the rotation will be bolstered by a trade.

Sadly, the bullpen will be their undoing.

.

I don't know why I even watch baseball. The game is determined by equations off the field that I will never understand.

phlipper, as far as I know there are only two:
http://www.thefightins.com/tag/the-endless-debate/

"Heather, you proved my point about fans. In any case, couldn't disagree more. I'm not saying the Phils don't have a future (of course they do) but this team is built to win now. "

Maybe we're in violent agreement? I thought you were saying the team could never give up on the season. I thought you meant in the sense of they should do everything to win now.

My response to that is that they probably shouldn't do everything to win now and hamstring their future...aka "give up on the season"

Your response was that I proved your point and of course they shouldn't hamstring the future.

I think at this point we actually agree on the basics and are just arguing over the way the argument is phrased.

W/E, my head hurts now. :-)

Oswald gets them off the hook for resigning Lee. Now would be a great time to call up Drabek...
One thing made me madder than Rubes smug look (and softball questions from Wheels and TMAC) Conlins column where he did a 360 on the Lee trade. Backing off from his devils advocate column after the trade about how important it was to restock the farm at the same minute of the Halladay trade he now says the trade was a mistake and the prospects the phils got back have a "chance to be average".

What gets me is the almost abject disregard for the righty-lefty balance in the hitting order if Brown is substituted for Werth. Yes, I know that Francisco becomes a big part of the equation, but I don't like misadventures emanating from the corner outfielders. That's not to say that Ibañez/Francisco and Werth have been lights out defensively, but it does get worse in the case of Brown taking over for Werth and Francisco becoming more of a player, so to speak, in the everyday lineup.

Completely off subject, I've been a reader of these threads for some time, but not a contributor. I would like to get more involved in the discussions/debates, because I generally like the tenor and intelligence (plus humor) among the posters. I've been wasting my time in the WU section of the Eagles discussion boards centering on the Phillies. There are a few knowledgeable and funny posters there, but, for the most part, they are hard-headed ingrates who have little to no respect for the history and legacy of the losingest franchise in all of professional sports.

Bob, Agreed. Wheels and McCarthys question to Amaro about whether it was tough these days to be a GM was as hard as the questions got. I heard from someone in the FO that Rube has to check with Montgomery before he can buy a stamp. I think Amaro and Montgomery will bring us quickly back to the Phillies of old and thats not a good thing.

If they trade for Oswalt, they will not move him in the offseason, or probably any other time until he decides he wants to go. He will very likely still retain his full no trade clause even if he decides to play for the Phillies.

My two cents? Don't much know about the Rays prospects, but if they'd take Werth, I'd rather get a stud pitching prospect or two. Add that together with Colvin and Cosart and I could see this team dominating again in three years.

Things that might cause my otherwise strong heart to fail:
Montgomery announcing "we are going to spend whatever it takes to win, the fans deserve as much."
Wheels asking Amaro "Ruben, do you think you F'ed up the Lee trade, some baseball experts think its the second worst trade since the Red Sox traded the Babe."
Amaro announcing "I've traded Ibanzez and Blanton for some major league ready prospects."

I believe Rube is already in a "Seller" mindset for this season. In fact, he's already thinking about next year. That is why he is favoring pitchers he can control through next year. He's already shopping pieces that could help us for the run this year for pieces that will help for 2011 and beyond. From what I have read, I believe he has made up his mind.

victor, how about Wheels having an affair with one of the phils wives, that would do it for me...

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