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Thursday, July 29, 2010

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Roy Oswalt kind of looks like Kyle Kendrick...

So we ended up trading Cliff Lee, JA Happ, Jon Singleton and Vance Worley for Roy Oswalt, Tyson Gillies, JC Ramirez and Phil Aumont.

Doing the BL way of grading:

Lee is better then Oswalt

Happ is WAY WAY better then Aumont

Singleton is WAY better then Gillies

Worley and Ramirez is likely a wash, but Worley is ahead of him in development and minor league production


Brilliant.

I dont like that we're essentially selling our prospects yet again. We already sold Travis D'Arnaud for $6 million...now we likely sell Jonathan Singleton to pay for Oswalt.


That's a bad way to do business and stay competitive long-term.

1 year of Cliff Lee.

2.4 years of Roy Oswalt.

I'll repost from the last thread this question:

What happens in the event one of our starters goes down? Who do we turn to then?

repost: Raul's Grandpa - I don't often admit to lol-ing on the internet, but you sir made me lol.

denny, that's an incomplete way to look at the trades for Lee.

NEPP - If the Astros are taking on 1/3 of the money owed to Oswalt, you gotta expect to lose a guy like Singleton. That makes Oswalt a $9-$12M/yr AAV guy (depending on the option).

Hamm - if you do that comparison you need to include the 2 draft picks you get when Lee leaves.

Can't believe you all are forgetting about the trade that is going to happen right after we get Oswalt. - Gotta restock the farm system you know. :)

My guess is Jayson Werth to the Padres for 3 high risk high reward guys.

I'm a tad higher on Happ than many BLers, but to me, if the Astros are paying a big portion of his salary, this practically becomes a Singleton for Oswalt deal.

I don't think Werth is going anywhere.

"What happens in the event one of our starters goes down? Who do we turn to then?"


Moyer is going to throw right-handed, if need be.

Maybe they make David Herndon a starter. Or Nate Bump is always ready to go at Lehigh.

I hear their contingency plan will be to trade Colvin, Dom Brown, Cosart and Gose for Jenny Finch.

They also want to acquire Paul Janish from Cincinnati, to help them with utility man work and starting pitching depth.

Bed Beard, I guess I needed more smilies to get my point across

As I said last thread...

Great deal if it's Happ, Worley and Singleton for Oswalt and cash.

I like JA Happ a lot, but he's no Roy Oswalt and he's already shown an injury history.

Vance Worley is an organizational depth starter... a AAAA guy. No big deal.

Singleton is the best player in the deal and maybe in 4-years he's in the majors and mashing... but the key part there is "maybe in 4-years." We don't need a 1B for 7 years... and no one knows if Singleton has the aptitude to move to LF.

denny b is going to cry himself to sleep tonight.

****NEPP - If the Astros are taking on 1/3 of the money owed to Oswalt, you gotta expect to lose a guy like Singleton. That makes Oswalt a $9-$12M/yr AAV guy (depending on the option).****

Yeah, I know. I just dont like doing business that way. Long-term its probably cheaper to keep Singleton and just suck it up to get Oswalt.

See denny b has the sarcasm down nicely, guess I don't pull it off as well.

See, here is the issue with most BLers. All our prospects are Gods with Singleton being the next Albert Pujols.

I'm not going to lie, I think Singleton is a nice prospect, and I would prefer to keep him. However, the Phillies are about to acquire a top notch pitcher with a manageable contract through 2012. Open your eyes people, you can't acquire Oswalt for a deal consisting of Andy Tracy, Wilson Valdez, and Anthony Hewitt.

The Astros starting rotation in 2011?

Brett Myers
JA Happ
Vance Worley
Jamie Moyer
Nelson Figueroa

Scotch Man - I'm not sure how to answer that question, but I'm also not sure how it wasn't a question that was pertinent before (hypothetically) moving JA Happ and Vance Worley.

(In fact, isn't the possibility of losing a starter more worrisome when one of them is JA Happ, who has yet to have a complete healthy season in the bigs despite turning 28 this October?)

I don't often say this, but I agree with CJ.

The deal as described thus far is fair leaning toward slightly in the Phils favor. We weren't going to get Oswalt for a bag of balls.

What happened when starters went down before? Figgy, Rolo, Carpenter. Replacement level starters. You don't turn down a deal like this because you value below average pitchers.

Heather: "I don't often say this, but I agree with CJ."

Let's be fair... you've NEVER said that ;-)

Seriously guys as stated above,
The Phillies would like guys they can control for more than 2 months or 1 season... Lee was only going to be here 1 more season and Oswalt if he approves this trade would be here 3 years if we accept his option.

Cliff Lee -- wasnt going to be here after this year. We should let this go and be happy that our team first has the minor league players "to deal" and second is very active at the deadline (of which many other teams sit on the sidelines)

Lets be thankful here!

Has clout weighed in yet? Certainly don't mean to boost his ego (because we know he doesn't need that!), but I'm curious what he thinks.

I'd like to go back and see denny b's posts right after the final out of the '08 World Series. I'm sure he was pissed about something.

Unless its Happ, Worley and a throwaway prospect, I am firmly against the trade. We are already giving up way more than the Angels did for arguably a better pitcher in Haren.

Happ > Saunders by a mile
Worley + anything > Corbin + Rodriguez + Skaggs.

If our GM doesn't know how to play the market, as he previosly demonstrated when he rushed and traded Lee for prospect packages that were inferior to what the Indian and the Mariners got for him, we are headed for a longterm FAIL.

Amoreda, you are missing the big picture here, it is all about the MONEY!

"We weren't going to get Oswalt for a bag of balls."


Why not? Who else was in the running?

For those that know the prospects that Arizona got from LAA, how does Singleton relate to those guys?

I'll be seriously disappointed if the 3rd prospect is Singleton. My gut tells me he's the real deal with the bat, and from watching what little video is out there on him I seriously believe he can play LF in his early 20s at least as well as Raul can play it in his late 30s.

That said, being that he is only 18 with a half year in A, the Phils would be selling high. At least odds-wise.

I'm still more than a tad concerned about the closer and how many games he might cost the team in the stretch run and, perhaps, beyond.

"I'd like to go back and see denny b's posts right after the final out of the '08 World Series. I'm sure he was pissed about something."


The Phils offense didn't hit very well in Game 5.

How'd that team ever win a WS, without high dollar stud pitchers? I didn't think it was possible.

Denny B.~

You have to give to get. Let's wait and see who the principles are.

If they get Oswalt, does that mean we are done dealing, or we will be able to get another bullpen arm and another right handed bat. Phillies have scouted the Blue Jays this past week.

Rube is cleverly stretching out this deal another few hours to find out who the truly certifiable genius talent evaluator Ed Wade covets down on the farm.

I'm not quite sure where all the Happ love is coming from. He's a 28 year old who had a very good season last year, but has been injurred frequently and still struggles a bit with control. A mile better than Saunders? I'd put them about the same.

And again, you can't really weigh trades against what others did. You have to look at a deal only if it helps your team or not.

Haren was undervalued by MLB. That or the Arizona GM just values those Angels prospects. That's like being a Rangers fan and complaining about what you gave up for Lee because of what the Mariners paid to get him.

Anybody know Oswalt's career numbers at CBP?

Count me among the crowd that is not too concerned at the thought of losing Singleton. Because of his age and position he seems destined to be a trading chip in the Phillies organization at some point, anyway.

Is he likely to be as good a prospect as Dom Brown? The number 1 prospect in baseball at some point? Even if he were to become that good, we're talking about a 2014-15 DOA at the earliest, at which point the only current players on the roster would likely be Howard and Brown. And if Singleton were that good, Howard would likely have to be moved, anyway, to make room. The point is, I'm not too worried about a team that exists 5 years in the future, that I have no personal connection to, and which is unlikely to be as good as this current team.

MaDubbs, ofcourse I realize the money is an important factor but as NEPP says, including our top prospects in deals for salary relief is a sure way to hamstring your ability to do future deals.

Good prospects that you can eventually bring up to the show and contribute cheaply are the key to maintaining a long term healthy budget.

If Oswalt turns this deal down he will push JD Drew out of contention as least favorite visiting player at CBP, at least for a while.

I agree with the various posters who say make this happen. Singleton is a loss, but not an irreplaceable one. The same can be said for JA Happ. I also don't see how the argument can be made that Oswalt's injury history is a factor, when you have just as much (if not more) of an injury risk in Happ.
This is essentially what BL's were clamoring over, a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, and (insert Cy Young contender here), and it'll cost the Phils a few high-risk prospects. Go to it.

The most alarming thing of this deal, is the Yankees having no interest in Oswalt.

The Yankees have interest in EVERYBODY. Specifically, everyone who is making a lot of money.

Not saying they always know what they are doing, but the fact that they never had serious interest is a head-scratcher.

"That or the Arizona GM just values those Angels prospects."

One of the most overlooked aspects of any trade. Sometimes GMs/scouts like certain players more than other players.

"Singleton for Oswalt feels like Smoltz for Alexander."

NEPP, the far more accurate analogy would be: Singleton for Oswalt feels like Bagwell for Anderson.

Of course I believe that Oswalt will work out much better for the Phils then Alexander or Anderson did.

And good for Singleton if he ever did have a career on par with a Smoltz or Bagwell.

MLBtraderumors mentioned the Phillies are in on Jose Bautista.

Don't trade Savery and Hewitt, thought!!

Dennyb, that is good but not accurate.

Houstons 2011 opening day line up
Brett Myers
Nelly Figs
Ted Lilly
JA Happ
Van "diesel" Worley
(Extended Spring Training for Moyer, Carpenter)

MLBTR yesterday had a point about the Yankees checking in with the Astros on Oswalt, but not being aggressive. My less than substantial gut tells me that of all places, Oswalt may not have been too excited to go to the Bronx.

denny b: Singleton is better than any of the guys in the Angels deals. However, Skaggs and Corbin would both be better than Worley. And Happ is somewhat better than Saunders, but by no means is it a slam dunk. Kind of similar pitchers, actually.

The love of Happ started with JW who lobbied hard to get Happ up to the bigs in the first place. Now Happ is getting us Roy O + Keeping Rob Roy for almost ROY and a truckload of watermellons.

Yanks are just waiting around for Lee. 6 years 100+, no big deal.

This definitely means Werth is gone next year

Michael Taylor looked really good a year ago. There were those who thought him a better prospect than Brown. Now he isn't really hitting in Triple-A in Sacramento. I know nothing about Singleton, but the odds of any player, no matter how well he's playing, amounting to something at his age and level aren't very good.

Hate to bring this up but couldn't we have gotten Lee for Singleton, Happ and Worley

Oswalt has been terrible in his career against Atlanta:

7 starts, 0-3 record with a 7.58 ERA.

****Of course I believe that Oswalt will work out much better for the Phils then Alexander or Anderson did. ****

Alexander did help carry the Tigers to the WS that year...and then got old, fast.


The Yankees probably realized two things:

1. No way Oswalt would agree to go to the Bronx.
2. They're signing Lee in 2 months regardless.

I do feel bad for Dom Brown a bit. This should be his day in the sun after a great debut.

He was fantastic last night.

David - No. Smoak was a higher rated prospect than Brown coming into the season.

NEPP - I agree, I put little to no stock in the 'If the Yankees didn't bite, then no one else should' idea. I don't doubt they sniffed around, Oswalt said 'Not a chance, fellas' and they headed back north. Why give up prospects at all, like you said, in order to sign another top-tier arm in half a year?

NEPP: I'm sure he'll get over it. He has a long career ahead of him with plenty of sunny days in the forecast. :)

The other thing to account for again, Dave, is that the Phils are getting someone under contract for at least another year. Lee would have been for half a season. Oswalt's contract is an asset.

Apparently the Phils are targeting Jose Bautista to play 2B/3B/OF from the Blue Jays.

What happens when Utley comes back? Who sits?

I think this deal will be good for the Philles in 2010. We're making a push for the playoffs, and as long as our top guys finally stay healthy, we should be able to make a deep run if we get there.

I'm not sure how good it will be for the Phillies in 2011. Unless the Astros are paying almost all of the salary (and maybe they are), Oswalt is your acquisition for 2011, and that's it. You're not adding anyone else, except maybe a spare bench or bullpen piece. Add another year to guys' ages, a question of what Brown will produce, and the lack of pitching depth, and I'm not sure you're looking at a dominant team, though the possibility is there. We'll see how it works out.

I hope we hold on to Singleton, but I understand if he goes. So basically what I'm trying to say is I'm not sure how I feel about the deal. Pretty neutral. I won't complain about it, but I'm not printing championship pennants yet either.

Brown WAS terrific last night. I just love the kid's approach to the game. He's confident, but not obnoxious. His enthusiasm, almost as much as his bat, are really going to help this team.

Oswalt's post-season stats:

8 games, 46 IP, 48 hits, 19 ER, 19 BB's and 32 K's.

Is 4-0 in the playoffs, but got bombed in his only WS appearance in 2005.

dennyb is to any player in the Phillies' minor league system as davthom was to Chris Coste.

I agree Ish, the Yanks pinstripes look so bad after you poop your pants when the big city crowd roars. Ask Knoublauch and Irabu.

CESDC: You move him to the outfield and rotate Brown, Ibanez, Bautista, and Werth. Assuming we make it to the WS, we would actually have a viable DH option.

I'm also intrigued by reports of Keppinger being included. He absolutely destroys lefties, .850 lifetime OPS, he'd be a good bat off the bench/fill-in for injuries.

In terms of how this plays for the post-season, consider the fact that the Phillies didn't see fit to give Happ a single start in the playoffs last year, coming off his 12-4 year. Clearly, as has been indicated so frequently by examples such as this, the Phillies don't have short-term or long-term faith in this guy.

In the post-season, you need as many warriors as possible, particularly on the pitching staff. I can't think of two guys with better mental makeup to start the first two games of a playoff series than the two Roys. Oswalt has always struck me as a very, very impressive guy, the kind you read about from eras past. I'm hearing from certain quarters that Halladay and Hamels may be enough, but after Hamels' atrocious post-season last year, some major questions about him persist.

Can't get enough of the irony that Wade, who got insufficient return on his mid-season desperation deals for Schilling and Rolen, now deals with the Phillies from the other side in the same position. If you're a Houston fan, it must be difficult to have any faith he'll come through much better this time.

Some reports that it is Rizotti, not Singleton, which would make it a steal. Not expecting that to be true, however.

At this point, with several All-Star caliber players in their prime, I'm all for trading Single A prospects for ace-level starting pitchers. Especially those blocked by $125 million contracts. Sorry, Mr. Singleton.

RSB: Happ was coming off his oblique injury I believe... probably why he didn't get a start.

Folks: Roy Oswalt is a proven MLB pitcher. The Phillies want to win the WS this year. Roy Oswalt is going to help them contend for that this year AND next much more than Happ or Worley or Singleton can. There is no spot in the lineup for Singleton and how many Low-A great players have faded by the time they have reached AAA? This potential trade makes sense for both teams. The Astros are years away from contending, the future is now for the Phillies.

Bed's Beard: If that's true, it changes the deal entirely. I think Rizz has a chance to be a solid major-league hitter based on his performance this year, but you deal him over Singleton 100 times out of 100. That would be awesome.

JW, can we just ban debbyb for one day. we're getting a legit #1 SP to be our #3 and all he can do is b!tch and moan about it. please make it stop!!!

Yankees are not in on Oswalt because they are signing Lee. Same thing happened when they didn't trade for Santana, knowing Sabathia was available in the next offseason.

I won't repost my comment from last thread, but if it's either Rizzotti or Singleton, Rizzotti should be included. There's just no room for him. Singleton is only 18 years old. The timeline works better for him than the 24 year old Rizzotti.

If we were going to trade Singleton for an expensive pitcher, Rube should have gone all in for Lee and correct his mistake. Lee is a top five pitcher in all of baseball. Oswalt may be top 15 with some health concerns.

Not a terrible move. But not the smartest one he could have made. In fact, for that package, I have to think he could have brought Myers back and he'd be more affordable and he's pitching better than Oswalt.

I totally forgot about Hideki Irabu until you mentioned that. Is he available? Is there anyone in baseball history less deserving of two WS rings?

"If the Astros are taking on 1/3 of the money owed to Oswalt, you gotta expect to lose a guy like Singleton."

It gives me some comfort to know that because it means that, when Singleton hits .330/.445/.620 in 2015, we'll be entitled to blame the Phillies' cheap ownership for the fact that he's playing elsewhere.

i think RSB hit the nail on the head.

We're dealing with Ed Wade, so we pretty much are guaranteed to come out on top.

Oswalt has been asking questions about the lay of the land in Phila, has received texts from Lidge, people close to situation say

Question????

Are the Phillies able or allowed to give Oswalt a physical before the deal is approved by him??

I say this because if the cortisone rumors are correct, then dont' you think they would want to do one, especially after what happened to the Phillies with Freddy Garcia.

We were forced to use Pedro Martinez last year because Charlie and company did not trust Happ NOR Blanton.

How many games did JA Happ start in the Playoffs? And How did he fair?

How many games has Joe Blanton started? How'd he do there?

This is about the playoffs. And replacing Moyer next year.

Blanton's last 2 playoff starts: 12IP 7ER 4BB 9K 1HR 5.25ERA

I'm thinking Roy will fair a little better.

****Some reports that it is Rizotti, not Singleton, which would make it a steal. Not expecting that to be true, however. ****

That would be the Ed Wade we all know and love.

"We weren't going to get Oswalt for a bag of balls."


Why not? Who else was in the running?


Because the Astros won't trade him for a bag of balls. They have a franchise to run just as the Phillies do. Obviously, they want what they feel is a fair return.

Does it matter that we have only 1 LHP in the rotation, or not really when the RHP includes Halladay & Oswalt?

****Question????

Are the Phillies able or allowed to give Oswalt a physical before the deal is approved by him??
****

They can review medical records but nothing like an MRI or CT scan. Hopefully everything is in his records though as it should be well documented.

Astros could hold onto Oswalt for this offseason or next Summer. They didn't have to trade him now.

Dear Brad Lidge,

Please get your ass out of bed a call Oswalt, texting isn't going to cut it pal.

Love,
Bay Slugga

I think we are forgetting when we make the Haren comp that LA is taking all of Haren's cash.

"We were forced to use Pedro Martinez last year because Charlie and company did not trust Happ NOR Blanton"

To be fair, Martinez pitched well down the stretch and into the playoffs. It's not like it was a terrible call.

If Singleton is dealt, there is another dimension to this trade. The Phillies have about 8-10 high upside high school guys they drafted this year. These are just about all very tough signs.

If significant money is coming back in the trade, they need to use some of it to spread maybe a million around and get 3-4 of those guys. If they do that, it's likely there will be another Singleton or Worley or similar player coming along in the next few years. As long as they do that, they'll be okay. I've felt all along that their lottery ticket picks further down in the draft are their best picks if they sign them. If they do that this year, we shouldn't mind losing some talent.

We need all outdoorsy non-city folk to text Ostwalt now and tell him where the Cabellas and Bass Fisher-dude store is, the best "cricks" and watering holes, where he can go "varmint" hunting with Kevin Kolbn etc. We don't want him trying to camp out in Cobbs Creek or anything like that.

Madubbs: I sure hope they take a physical and check out his back.

Where is Singleton gonna play on the Phillies?

I wonder if Oswalt is aware of what a, to put it gently, "hick state" PA is once you get out of the Philly area. Its probably pretty similar to what he's used to.

Matt the Bat has come a long way in a short time.

Cabella's is in Hamburg. That's not far!

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