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Tuesday, July 20, 2010

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I have the fortune of being in Indianapolis this week (visiting some friends in Indiana) and I am here at Victory Field waiting out a rain delay, getting ready to watch JA Happ pitch and Dom Brown and John Mayberry hit (hopefully).

I'll try and give some updates on how things look and specifically how Happ is throwing.

Seemingly beatable lineup for the Cards. Besides Pujols and Holliday, I don't see much else in that lineup.

Of course, with a good pitcher on the mound, one run might suffice for the redbirds. Time for St. Louis favorite son Ryno to shine for Phils. Need the rest of the lineup to bat selectively and draw walks and get good pitches and get Ryan to the plate.

At this point in the doldrums of what is most definitely not an easy season, I'm thinking an acquisition of someone new can only be good for the Phils and a change of scenery will probably be good for Werth (or a contract, but I guess that's out).

It would stink to watch Werth boost that dismal RISP avg. for another team, of course. And I think the challenge will be to acquire someone who can generate excitement in the clubhouse, in one way or another - Someone who can impress the team as a real help, who can give them added incentive to start performing.

Last night's STL lineup was seemingly beatable too, but they got 4 homers and 8 runs.

Sounds like we have the wrong Carpenter.

Hey, way to make him work and try to get into that bullpen early, guys. Great patience.

Patience exhibited by the top of the lineup.

I'd like to see Charlie platoon Werth and Dobbs. Dobbs has played RF before, and it might just open Werth's eyes.

Dobbs is hitting the long ball now, take advantage of his left hand bat.

Art

This game feel like the last 50 or so...

Do we know whether or not this guy is a "Jamie-ump," or should we get the bullpen up already?

Vic isn't stupid, he's just doing one helluva J-Roll impression at the plate. One pitch, one Out. That's efficiency.

Just out of curiosity, when are Haren and Oswalt scheduled to pitch next, anyway? Would one of them even line up for Saturday? Can we make any assumptions if one is held back from his next start?

Beside slim and none what is the chance Sat. pitcher is Worley?

A trade tweeted by Rob Kuestner of CSNPhilly.com is Roy Oswalt to Philly, Jayson Werth to an unnamed team, with that unnamed club sending prospects back to Houston.

I ask this all the time and I will continue to ask...
"Take sign anyone?"

Game about to start in Indy.

Old Phan: What is this "Take Sign" of which you speak?

Old Phan, you didn't know? It's hittin' season. The only "taking" going on will be taking hacks at bad pitches.

I'm horrified by the prospect of Rube making a deal for either Oswalt or Haren at this point. Absolutely horrified. There is no reason to mortgage the future to get one of these guys in what looks like is snowballing into a lost year. I'd much rather look for a second-tier guy like Sheets if you can get him cheap and take a chance that the hitters will get their sh!t together.

Great Moyer hurt and Carpenter warming up.

So Moyer is hurt now I guess. I would ask what else can go wrong but I'm afraid of the answer at this point.

Matt Gelb (via Twitter): "Jamie Moyer has been injured and will be coming out. Andrew Carpenter warming up."

So r00b's gonna trade for a pitcher just as the Phillies lose a pitcher? Net Impact: Nothing.

Iceman: Oswalt is under contract for 2011 with a club option for 2012. Haren is under contract through 2012 with a club option for 2013. A trade for either player would help the team for years in the future.

The irony is that Sheets, a "second tier guy", is getting paid $10 million in 2010 with an extra $2 million in incentives.

Even if he doesn't reach any of that incentive cash, it's a million bucks more than Lee.

I just don't see how Oswalt's contract fits into this team's plans, and I think Werth is just going to go on a tear any day now. Just not a good idea.

That said, I'd take Oswalt for Werth. Haren? Meh.

GTown Dave: Moyer being replaced in the rotation by Haren or Oswalt represents a net impact of zero?

...hope Kendrick's bus ticket was round trip.

Rube just silenced every last one his doubters. He not only foresaw Moyer's injury, but he foresaw the exact day on which it was going to happen. That takes some doing.

DH Phils: Wasn't the new guy supposed to be replacing Kendrick? And who replaces Moyer? The Phillies will still end up short a pitcher.

If Amaro does do something like this, it tells you how much the FO likes Brown at this point, as well. I think it could be a net gain, but Oswalt is due $16M next year. The one thing I didn't realize until now was that his 2012 money is a team option. If there is someway to get him and only give up Werth, isn't such a bad idea.

Jamie is hurt?
That's just great. Well, if your pitcher is broken, hire a Carpenter.

Werth would finally start to heat up once he's on the trade block.

And Moyer would get injured as we make a tentative trade for a pitcher.

It's that kind of year.

I'd say this about that rumor. If Ed Wade gives the Phillies Roy Oswalt essentially for Jayson Werth- who is leaving next year anyway- he's a boob.

On one hand I like the idea of getting the draft picks from Werth signing elsewhere, but on the other hand- getting Oswalt through next season really is a good way of circling the wagons for next year as we'd open the season with a 3 headed monster of Halladay-Hamels-Oswalt. That would be a really tough 1-2-3 punch.

I'm calling it now: Carpenter will win this game.

So, Werth might be involved in a three-way, eh...???

Alex Gonzalez since joining the Braves: .200/.333/.267


I guess now's as good a time as any to test our Carpenter. Their Carpenter was very likely to get the W anyway. Maybe our Carpenter will have beginner's luck! You know, like any rookie who faces the Phillies.

In other news, KK broke out his voodoo doll. Again.

Oswalt for 1.5 years (with club option) >>>>>> 2 picks

Happ strikes the first man out on a 93 MPH fastball.

Truth: Getting a 2-month rental would obviously make no sense for Houston. He would presumably be giving us Oswalt in a 3-way trade in which the Astros would get prospects & I gather some other team would get Werth. If the rumor has any validity to it, that is, which I doubt.

Rube is a genius, he knew to bring up carp for today cause jamie would get hurt. We should all stop questioning his moves.

DH Phils: well, that depends. If it's just for Werth (who'd be gone after the season anyway), I like it a lot. But if it's for top prospects, I hate it. I have defended Rube a lot from some unnecessary criticism on this site, but I am not confident in his ability to value prospects (case in point: the return for the Cl*ff L** trade).

Coupled with that, there's no guarantee that an acquisition of Oswalt is a signal that ownership is raising their payroll limit. If they want to lift that self-imposed cap, then I'm all for it. But if putting Oswalt on the books for this year and next year means cuts in other areas/no flexibility, it will affect the ability to improve other areas of the team, most notably corner OF and the bench.

Certain posters will blame Rube for the injury.

BAP: Well obviously he is getting picks from somewhere else. But still depending on what type of package he is getting I can't see giving up Oswalt for peanuts. The guy is good and probably one of the more unheralded starters in the majors. We are only giving up Werth. I'd almost think he should ask for picks from the third team and a guy from us.

Like you though- I am skeptical about the rumor.

Oswalt is scheduled to start on Saturday, FWIW.

Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee.

We have a Cliff Lee sighting on this thread.

Iceman tried to hide it, but I was smart enough to figure it out.

Any word on what sort of injury Moyer suffered?

Heads up play by Valdez

nice heads up job by Wilson Valdez.

Heads up baserunning by Valdez!

Happ looked very good in his first inning.

Throwing mostly fastballs and cutters.

Velocity in the low 90's.

Werth for Oswalt would be a move for next year, not this year, essentially.

It's not a terrible deal; Oswalt should be good next year, and Werth was as good as gone, clearly. However, it will up the payroll even more, removing any sort of flexibility for the off-seasonto improve other areas. It also means an OF next year of Ibanez/Francisco-Vic-Brown.

We should have good starting pitching next year, but I wonder about the offense. If Brown struggles like guys often do in their first full season, we could really struggle to score runs.

Here's a question: Do the Phils get draft picks if they buy out Oswalt's contract after next year, offer him arb instead, and then he signs elsewhere as a FA?

Way to GIDP, Jimmy. After we got two gifts that inning.

I had total faith that Jimmy would come up small there. Of course, when a guy's hittting .220, that's a pretty safe bet.

At least he didn't pop up. *sigh*

That was painful, and of course I have to watch Lopez rope a single to right/center 2 pitches later.

phlipper: sorry, CouLdn't avoId it. StuFF happens.
Thought maybe the asterisks wouLd do thE job. Next timE I might try a word scramble .

Jack, I wouldn't say it's "essentially" not a move for this year. Maybe you could argue that it isn't a net gain this year on the balance, but Oswalt makes the rotation better this year and next year (maybe the year after that). My guess is that the FO is very high on Brown at this point as well.

Not sure about the arb thing.

I'll give Carpenter this: he is a model of consistency. Every time we call him up, he stinks it up something fierce.

Randy Wynn was due, he only had one HR coming into the game

I think that was a hanging slider, but it had so little movement on it I'm not sure.

Multiple moves are needed for this team to make the playoffs this season.

Wait you guys did realize Carpenter was basically a BP pitcher, right?

Well Bruce Ruffin was calling for Drew Carpenter to replace Moyer weeks ago. Now he gets his wish, as known power hitter Randy Wynn takes him deep.

So much for this Cards lineup being seemingly beatable.

Left elbow strain for Moyer. So he'll be back in a matter of "weeks, not months", right?

"CouLdn't avoId it. StuFF happens."

Sorry, Iceman, but that tricky code with those capital letters has me stumped. I figured out your trickery with those asterisks - but I couldn't quite figure out what you were saying this time.

I get the feeling most people on here would rather have Oswalt than Haren. I wouldn't.

Did I say earlier that I didn't think it likely that Carp would be worse than KK?

Is it too late to take that back?

sifl: I'd way rather have Haren than Oswalt. But, of course, Haren will be much harder to get.

I really hope that Rube doesn't make a panic move and empty out the farm in a vain attempt to win this year...its just not our year.

Haren would have to require some top prospects from both the Phils and another club. Oswalt might cost more than Werth, but probably not anyone significant.

sifl: Haren is better, younger, & under contract for longer. But they're both terrific pitchers.

phlipper, are you saying you think KK would not have given away a HR to the Cards?

Frankly, I don't particularly care about either of them. I have significant concerns about the Phillies offense next year, given what I've seen from some guys this year.

It's entirely possible that only Utley and Howard are above-average offensive players next year for the Phillies.

2 easy innings for Happ.

Hitters don't look comfortable against him.

So far, so good.

C. Carp's breaking stuff has better movement than A. Carp's.

maybe happ?

so much for a-carp's luck..

Jack: I have the same concerns. I wouldn't complain about unloading Werth for Oswalt, though. One way or another his days in Philly are done, & that kind of return would be nothing to sneeze at.

On more pressing news that some unfounded rumor . . . does anyone think we have even a 1 percent chance of winning this game? I'd put it at more like .05 percent.

Jack: Wow, Polly, Ruiz, J-Roll, Vic, Ibanez and Brown are all gonna have down years next season? And you already know that?

I'm impressed.

"...its just not our year."

While the Phils have been playing Awful of late. They are still above .500, still in the hunt for the east and still alive in the wild card.

Sure things look bad now and have looked bad for a while but this team can/has bounced back from poor stretches. I am still holding out for this season.

All you have to do is be hot at the right time, and win your last 11 out of 19 games

denny b: If Happ goes 6 or 7 that means he's not starting in Philly on Saturday.

b_a_p: No. Which is why we're discussing everything but.

Being the Blind Optimistâ„¢, I'll put their chances at 10%.

Jack: I'm curious why you think only Utley and Howard will be above average contributors next year.

The pitcher and a .189 hitter, and Carpenter finds a way to let the run score without making an out.

Why would the Astros trade for Oswalt for Werth?

Are we all remembering why Carpenter is a AAAA starter at best?

Happ leads off the 3rd with a double to RF.

Back-to-back HR's.

The AAA guys doing better then the major league guys did against McCutcheon.

Nothing much from either Brown or Mayberry yet. They look like twins standing there together in the OF.

why bother with cleaning out the Pharm again?** ** we will have very little in the terms of high level prospects - or ML ready players in 2012 or later.

Going for a pitcher now --> would that prove that maybe amaro wasn't as smart as his degrees indicate. We really should not have to make a trade for a top line pitcher - we had one... he's gone for a hill of beans or something.

i don't want to bring up clee - just want to bring up amaro's lack of exec planning ..

My guess is with that "only two above-average hitters next year" comment, Jack just gave himself an argument he will have to defend daily for at least a month.

Baez? Is that a move that you make when you're trying to win or trying to lose?

This team is gonna set records for quick innings. C. Carp is going to have an 80 pitch complete game.

Carp did throw 2 good changeups to Lopez. Looks like he's got a 89 mph fastball, a cutter (slider?) that goes into the dirt or hangs up in the zone and a halfway decent change.

Clout: I don't know that. I merely said that it was entirely possible. Do I think it will happen? No, it is less than probable. But I am certainly concerned about the offense next year. My point was that Utley and Howard are he only two players who are virtually assured of being above-average offensive players.

Polanco is the most likely of the guys I left out to be above-average, as he's a consistent .300 hitter. But if he dips down to .280, without taking walks or hitting for power, he's a below average hitter (see his 2009 season). Rollins was awful last year and isn't hitting again this year. Victorino--who knows. But he looks completely lost at the plate, especially hitting lefty, and I just don't know if he picks it back up--he probably will, but you never know. And even at his best, he was just over 100 OPS+ (and yes I know that's good for a CF).

Ibanez? I will be very pleasantly surprised if he puts up a 100 OPS+ next season, though I guess it's possible as a platoon player only against righties. Guys usually don't get better at age 39, do they? His power seems like a lost cause to me, and I'm not convinced his bat speed isn't totally gone. Brown--we have no idea. Plenty of highly touted young players really struggle early on. Jay Bruce was a #1 prospect, and take a look at his first two seasons.

That's a worst-case scenario, obviously. But all of those guys (other than Brown, obviously) are into their 30s, some into their mid and late 30s. Injuries have already taken their toll the last couple years on Ibanez, Polanco and Rollins.

My point was simply that the only guys I KNOW will be above-average offensive players are Utley and Howard.

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