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« Saturday: Five-run fifth fuels second-straight shutout | Main | Sunday chat: Happ ready to roll for the stretch run »

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Comments

Sophist - I can't really fault Rube. I also didn't think Monasterios was going to turn out to be anything. I figured upside was Carlos Carrasco. And that ain't much upside. I actually think J.C. Ramirez has a chance to be better than either one of them. Too bad he's likely to be gone soon. But for a good ML starter, and assuming there isn't a Colvin or Cosart in the trade, I'd go along with it.

Clout - Worley's numbers may be a little misleading. He was going great guns last season then had a melt down. Probably a tired arm. This season he has been pretty consistent. Not overpowering. But he looks like a guy who needs to work on secondary stuff. If all he has is the fastball and slider with command, then yeah, Clay Condrey. If he gets command of one other pitch, then he can be a reasonable starter. Two more pitches? Then he'd be a good starter. It all depends on coaching and a work ethic and a little luck now.

curt: I'm not a big Haren believer, & I think Singleton could possibly help fetch a more necessary addition in the next couple of seasons.

aksmith: Monasterios has less of a future than Worley. He's a weak-stuff, sinker-slider guy who must have pinpoint command to succeed. Only a mental defective would think it's a good idea to give away a career 130 OPS+ All-Star for a sack of dirty diapers and Monasterios.

Well, Detriot may suddenly need a corner OF in any case.

clout, whatever Worley threw 95, it was a pretty flat pitch (though he did blow it by Ianetta).

Yeah Magglio broke an ankle

aksmith: Totally agree. If Worley could command his curve, changeup and sinker the way he commands his 4-seamer he'd be way better than a rotation back-ender.

IMHO, I place his chances of developing that skill on all 4 pitches at .00000015%

sophist: Pitch fx says he didn't hit 95 today, but maybe the radar gun rounds up.

Gameday had him hitting 95 too.

Some thoughts from the game:

- Crowd was surprising lively. Maybe the combination dehydration from heat and beer helped out.

- JRoll really was their fire starter today. Made a great adjustment after Jimenez through 2 straight fastballs on and poked a single to 3rd one to LF to start the 3rd. He just seemed to have aggression running today that has been lacking since returning.

- Jiminez was up from the start with his fastball in the 1st. Phils caught on real quick in the 2nd andit unraveled there from Jiminez. Jimenez looked like he had trouble griping the ball early though. Picked up the rosin bag/dirt a few times and was wiping his hand on his uniform alot.

- Jimenez desperately needed someone to come out from the dugout to try to calm him down but no one emerged until he got yanked. It was some really poor managing.

- KK was getting behind nearly ever hitter today. Hard to tell if it was a cade of him being wildly effective or the Rockies taking some crappy swings ahead in the count. Probably a bit of both.

amended: whatever the FOX-TV radar gun read as 95 was a pretty straight pitch (that he blew by the opposing .214 2010 BA catcher, in the 9th inning of an all-but-over game in 102* heat).

I'm surprised any gun read Worley as throwing 95MPH. Luckily the Rockies are a fairly free-swinging team, as he wasn't exactly solid in the control department, either.

Clarence Worley, what did he think this was white boy day? It ain't white boy day.

Maybe Roy dosn't want to come here and have his buddy Lidge blow all his leads.

Ball didn't really carry that well today which is surprinsing. The sound from the bat on Ibanez's HR sounded like it was crushed but it really carry that deep in RF. Only ball all day that reall went a long way was Stewart's HR which went would have gone 440 or 450.

Please, please Cholly keep Dobbs at 3b and keep Polanco at 2b.

Worley sent down, Happ recalled. Vance, we hardly knew ye ...

MG, didn't Ibanez' ball hit the front of the second deck? That's how it looked on TV.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10221407&query=%26game_pk%3D265263

For some reason Tarantino spelled "Drexl" with one 'e'.

Sophist - It was measured at 410 ft. It sounded like it would go further from the sound it made. You knew it was out as soon as it was hit.

MG: I'm not sure if where you were seated, but from where I was the Ibañez HR appeared to be crushed. It left the park so quickly the Rockies RF barely took two steps after it.

Also, I agree w/ you RE: J-Roll. He had an awful first AB, but came back the next time, took some pitches & really got the offense going.

I am putting my vote in for Haren. Doc Oswalt can keep playing in Houston where nobody cares and he can collect his 12 mil and make his golf trips at the end of Sept.

Ya it really needs to be Dobbs at 3rd and Polanco at 2nd. It just is way better than having Valdez out there starting.

Sophist: money and guaranteed years aside - who would rather have to finish out 2010, Oswalt or Haren?

I understand contractual and age issues give the advantage to Haren, but i get the sense that you just think Haren will be flat out better than Oswalt over the next few months on this team.

To me, I think Oswalt is the better pitcher and has an amazing track record behind him. If I have a Game 2 of the World Series and could choose between the two, I gotta choose Oswalt about 95% of the time over Haren.

Starter is going to end here but I don't think it will be Oswalt or Haren. Glad it won't be Sheets.

Zack Greinke in Phillies red would be AMAZING. Although i would not be upset with Danny Haren here.

So Mr.Amaro started the pre-season with a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and Moyer/Kendrick and tomorrow is the first day it is actually happening. July 25th almost 60% of the season gone. I hope his dream of this starting rotation gets off to a great start.

WAR baffling stat:

The Phils most valuable reliever has been Herndon?! at 0.5 WAR.

Now granted there really hasn't been anyone in the Phils' bullpen who has pitched that well but more valuable than Durbin or Contreras.

Happ saved the Phils' bacon last year by winning 12 games and arguably being the best starter for a stretch there in May/June when they really need one of their starters to pitch well.

Have a feeling there is season is going to how well he performs the rest of the way. Probably going to make 12 GS if he stays in the rotation the rest of the year. I say the Phils have to go no less than 7-5 in those GS to make the playoffs.

That is why I do wonder how much of a difference any starter will really make with this team this year considering that the Phils 11-8 when KK has appeared although he has enjoyed ridiculously strong run support (now over 6 runs/game).

KK has been mediocre this year.

Question is how much of a difference does replacing him with the likes of a Lilly make? I say maybe a game or two.

Is that enough to make a difference in the NL East? - Doubt it.

Is that enough to make a difference in the WC? - Possibly and that is the conundrum facing Amaro.

Trading Werth may prove to be a huge mistake now that he's finally heating back up. Especially if we trade him for only SOME of the prospected needed to land an Oswalt or Haren.

I doubt Dom Brown will give us an .870ish OPS the rest of the way.

Offensively, Howard, Werth,Ibanez and Polly have all heated up quite a bit and even Jimmy has a 4 game hit streak now. We might want to focus on secondary moves instead of betting the farm on a huge deal.


That said, this is Rube we talking about. He's got it in his head to make a big splashy trade so it will happen one way or another.

Bandbox?

Phils Home - 3.47 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .239 BAA, 2.59 K/BB, 8.43 K/9
Phils Road - 4.57 EAR, 1.39 WHIP, .278 BAA, 2.39 K/BB, 6.52 K/9

Most surprising - 1.04 HR/9 at CBP vs. 1.29 HR/9 on the road

Bizarre stat of the year for the Phils. Phils have pitched better on CBP in '04 and '08 so that isn't that uncommon but there never has been such a profound difference. In '04, it was marginal and even in '08 it was nearly so drastic.

In '05, '06, '07, and '09, the Phils' pitched better on the road but there wasn't a dramatic difference like this any season either.

KK's performance today:

I thought he was behind hitters today alot and that was the case.

He threw 1-pitch strikes to hitters only 10/26 (38%).

Every time other time year he has had a strong outing, this number has been better:

4/20 vs. Braves (8 IP, 0 ER) - 12/28 or 42%
5/5 vs Cards (7 IP, 0 ER) - 14/27 or 52%
5/17 vs. Pirates (8 IP, 2 ER) - 19/30 or 63%
6/2 vs. Braves (7 IP, 1 R) - 18/25 or 72%
6/17 vs. Yanks (7 IP, 0 ER) - 14/27 or 52%
7/2 vs. Pirates (9 IP, 3 ER) - 26/37 or 70%
7/8 vs. Reds (6 2/3 IP, 1 ER) - 13/22 or 59%

Obviously there is alot more to a pitcher's performance than first-strike pitches but I was surprised that KK turned in such a strong performance with such a mediocre number.

Then again he had a little help from the Rockies on the CS/strikeout in the 1st and ridiculous decision by Fowler to try to stretch a leadoff 2B into a 3B in the 5th.

Yeah, I figured Sheets was headed for the DL.

DL for at least two weeks and perhaps the rest of the season.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15596700?nclick_check=1

...snip...


Right-hander Ben Sheets was placed on the 15-day DL on Saturday because of a strained right elbow, not only robbing the A's of their most experienced starter but also taking away their best bargaining chip with the non-waiver trade deadline approaching.

The A's would not speculate as to how much time Sheets might miss, but the veteran pitcher expressed concern about whether he will be able to return this season.

That news put a damper on an otherwise encouraging afternoon as the A's walloped the Chicago White Sox 10-2 at the Oakland Coliseum.

Sheets developed swelling in his elbow following his last start Monday against Boston, an outing in which his velocity was noticeably lower than in previous starts.

It's not an encouraging development considering he missed all of the 2009 season after having surgery on the elbow to repair a torn flexor tendon.

Sheets is 4-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 20 starts, and although his numbers haven't been pretty, a silver lining was that he appeared healthy most of the season and was eating up innings.

But he revealed Saturday that he hasn't felt 100 percent all season long.


"From how I felt before the spring, I thought it'd keep getting better," he said. "I just never turned the corner. It's just kind of stayed the same. It's really been up and down, up and down. There haven't been many days that I've felt normal."

The inner part of Sheets' elbow was noticeably swollen Saturday morning. He's been examined by the A's medical staff, but he'll get a second opinion this week from Texas Rangers team physician Keith Meister, whom Sheets worked with during his offseason rehabilitation.

...more...


KK's performance is even more impressive considering how he keeps getting jerked around by the team. He probably never knows if he's going to stay with the team or end up in the bullpen from one minute to the next.

So much for that "we signed Polanco as a third baseman and that's where he's gonna play" stuff.

Did he have to sign a new contract before being inserted at second?

This kind of nonsense really torques me. Tells me the fans often have it figured out long before the so-called professionals.

Maybe they would have had a better road trip with this configuration. Hard to see it being any worse.

I've been on vacation but am very glad to see Castro gone.

Good game Saturday afternoon, things are looking positive.
AND thank goodness Joe Buck ,was not working Fox

I can't understand why they continue to go after Oswalt. Big salary mediocre results, but most importantly he wants to be in St. Louis. Go after Haren and forget Oswalt. Supposedly, the Rangers are looking at Cantu. It is probably unlikely that the Marlins would trade Cantu to Phillies, but it would be nice to have some power off of the bench. Can't believe we can pick up someone on the waiver wire who is better than what we have on the bench. Wigginton would be a decent addition also, but not Tejada.

jason.tp, Haren has been as good a starter as Oswalt if not better for the last 3-4 years, so I'd be tempted to just say the better pitcher has a better chance to give them more production in the second half. I do worry about his second half troubles, although I'd want to look at it further to find out the reason behind it. Thankfully, he wouldn't be a rental.

Yo, new you know what.

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