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Thursday, July 15, 2010

Comments

On a totally unrelated local sports item (local for me, anyhow), I see the Warriors just sold for a league-record $450M. So Chris Cohan, the ex-owner, bought the franchise for $119M in 1995, proceeded to turn it into one of the biggest laughing stocks in all of sports for the next 15 years, then cashed out for $450M. Kind of makes me suspect that the Phillies' owners could probably have afforded to pay Cliff Lee $8M this year.

Happ pitching tonight.Time for something to happen one way or another with him.

awh: If I read sophist's stats on Lidge correctly, he gave up runs in 5 of 18 appearances, which is 28%, a bit lower than 33%. Everyone comfortable with that rate?

Lineups:

Phillies
1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Shane Victorino, CF
3. Raul Ibanez, LF
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Jayson Werth, RF
6. Greg Dobbs, 3B
7. Carlos Ruiz,
8. Wilson Valdez, 2B
9. Jamie Moyer, P


Cubs
1. Kosuke Fukudome, RF
2. Ryan Theriot, 2B
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Marlon Byrd, CF
5. Alfonso Soriano, LF
6. Fontenot, 3B
7. Starlin Castro, SS
8. Koyie Hill, C
9. Ryan Dempster, P

So giving up 1 run in an appearance means you suck? Interesting.

When your appearances normally last one inning? Sure.

Thirty-three percent is about average for a reliever. For a closer on a championship-contending club, that percentage needs to be cut in half.

Sampling of relievers and their runs per appearances this year:

Cordero 13/43 .302 24
Bell 7/38 .184 24
Wilson 5/35 .143 23
Capps 9/41 .220 23
Wagner 4/38 .105 20

Lidge
2008 10/72 .139
2009 28/67 .418
2010 5/18 .278

clout, I'm not comfy with those numbers at all.

While I don't expect Lidge to ne perfect, my preference would be for Contreras like, who has only given up runs in 5 of 35 appearances, albeit with two "meltdowns" where he gave up a total of 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning.

In his other 33 appearances, contreras has an ERA of .95.

That, I would be comfy with.

BAP - That hilarious. Cohan's was awarded with an investment rate of turn for being an incompetent boob and meddler. Kind of like Bill Giles will get when this current ownership group cashes out.

And clout, if your obvious question to follow is:

"awh, so you're more comfortable with Contreras closing right now than Lidge?"

To that I would answer: "Yes."

It's a damn shame to see Figueroa DFAed for the second time this season. He has exceeded expectations in every opportunity he's had and he's rewarded with a ticket to Lehigh Valley (or a bus ticket out of town if he's claimed).

Brad Lidge, on the other hand, is given every opportunity to fail, which he has done for a year and a half with alarming regularity.

I'd just as soon let Contreras close, keep Figueroa and eat the rest of Lidge's contract. His career is over; he just doesn't know it yet.

Schweitzer: Are your comments intended for laughs?

bap, what that says to me is that the Phillies are worth waaaay more than what Forbes projects.

What is a baseball team worth in the 5th largest market, following 82 consecutive sellouts, with a lucrative TV contract and a team that owns 33% of CSN, the primary broadcaster, with Phillies gear selling like hotcakes and them "THE" sports ticket in town?

If the Warriors are worth $450 MM, I'd wager a bet that they could get considerably more than the $537 MM that Forbes estimates.

MG: I suppose the franchise value is somewhat of a "paper asset" if you don't plan on selling -- and, frankly, I can't see the Phillies' owners selling anytime soon. Still, something tells me that not too many professional sports owners have liquidity problems. If you have a team that's worth hundreds of millions of dollars, it shouldn't be too hard to get a loan.

Bedrosian's Beard: Has Lidge shown you anything in the past year and a half that ranks him as anything but our least reliable member of the bullpen?

Why keep the weakest link and risk losing a reliable arm who can go multiple innings and can serve as an emergency starter?

bap- If I pee myself every time Brad Lidge comes into the game,do I have a liquidity problem too?

BAP: "If you have a team that's worth hundreds of millions of dollars, it shouldn't be too hard to get a loan."

Exactly right. The value of an MLB baseball franchise isn't in its annual profits. It's in their equity value as unique assets with a monopoly business.

Baseball team owners who cry poverty are a joke.

****Everyone comfortable with that rate?****

Does it really matter? We can either be comfortable with it or we can go nuts every time he's brought in for the next 1.5 years...either way, if Lidge is healthy, he's the Closer as long as UC is manager.

He might get used in more careful situations (with Romero taking on a LHB occasoinally) but he'll get the lion's share of the Saves.

***Baseball team owners who cry poverty are a joke.***

Outside of Tom Hicks, I agree. Though he was likely pulling money out of the Rangers to cover other bad investments and that caused the bankruptcy. A $30 million investment is now worth $540 million. That's a pretty good 1800% return (not adjusted for inflation) investment there.

BAP - I really thought that Giles & Monty were going to sell their shares end of the '08 for several reasons (e.g, franchise value had already skyrocket with the building of CBP, uncertainity about their willingess to eschew their conservative business model and dramatically increase the team's payroll, etc).

Actually, I do think there are some professional sports teams in North American especially in the NBA that have real cash flows issues and/or debt service problems.

What sunk Hicks in Texas was his convulated structure deal and his debt service obligations. Interesting to see if that happens to other teams over the next 1-2 years that were bought in the past decade that require a fair amount of debt to be rolled over.

****What sunk Hicks in Texas was his convulated structure deal and his debt service obligations. Interesting to see if that happens to other teams over the next 1-2 years that were bought in the past decade that require a fair amount of debt to be rolled over. ****

Interesting...I'll fully admit I was not following that issue closely as I could care less about the Rangers.

I should add that while I am not a Giles/Montgomery fan I would rather have them as partial owners than a leveraged-buyout bloodsucker like Hicks. Man spun straw into gold largely because of a period where inflation was incredibly moderate and consistently, capital flowed like water, and a bull market that will never see again in our lifetimes.

I wouldn't mind if Middleton bought them both out along with Betz and took a controlling share. Then we'd have our own Steinbrenner.

Good start in ATL. Brewers up 1-0, Corey Hart HR off Jurrjens.

Just curious - I sorta remember BAP predicting doom and gloom if the Phils didn't go well against division rivals in the second half of 2008 - and I sorta remember that they didn't do all that well yet didn't do all that terribly badly on the year.

Knowing what a rare event it is for BAP to predict doom and gloom, I was wondering if someone could use one of their handy/dandy websites to tell me the Phils' 2008 record against division rivals in the first and second halves of the season.

The Rangers have a little bit of an odd situation right now. Nolan Ryan is the Team President, and also part of a group trying to buy the team from Hicks. Ryan and his group had thought they had a contract to negotiate exclusively with Hicks as a stipulation of the bankruptcy proceedings. Then, Hicks and his group were negotiating with other groups, and Ryan's group sued. So the Team President has sued the Owner (his boss) for not selling the team to him.

Must be a fun place to work these days.

Jack, isn't MLB backstopping the Rangers during these bankruptcy proceedings? If so, I'm surprised that there hasn't been more outrage by the other owners for the Molina and Lee trades the Rangers made.

Spitz: Yes, MLB is backing them. That's why the Mariners sent over 2.5 million in cash along with Lee. The Giants are reportedly paying a good amount of Molina's salary as well.

In return, the Rangers gave up better prospects than they might have otherwise. Similar to the Carlos Santana--Casey Blake deal for the Dodgers.

My limited understanding of bankruptcy law is that companies are highly restricted in what they can do after they declare - business as usual isn't generally allowed. For example, if I own a valuable patent and declare bankruptcy, I can't license or sell that patent to anyone until I come out of bankruptcy or have a judge approve the license / sale. So how the heck can the Rangers trade Smoak when they are in the middle of bankruptcy proceedings?

I know there are a lot of lawyers on this board - wonder if you guys have any take.

Spitz: I don't know the particulars of bankruptcy law either, but my guess is that the move was cleared with the chief restructuring officer, with the sense that the value of the asset (the team) wouldn't be hurt by acquiring a guy like Lee and making the playoffs this year.

And anyway, I believe what happened was that MLB floated them a loan to keep them doing business as usual through the bankruptcy proceedings. As long as they stay within the budgetary constraints of the loan, they're probably free to do with that money what they want.

I'm not a bankruptcy lawyer & don't know anything about this area. But I rather doubt that an employee would be considered an asset in the same sense as a patent or something with a tangible monetary value.

Is it just me or does it feel like it has been about two weeks since the Phillies' last game? I'm glad to finally see some baseball again, even though this game feels like a loss.

Where's T-Mac?

Happ is just not right.

Give him credit for wanting to be out there, but its obvious that there is something wrong physically with him.

Again tonight, he cannot get the ball over the plate. More balls then strikes.

He is too valuable for the future and too talented to screw with. He probably just needs to shut it down, and do whatever is neccessary to get ready for 2011 spring training.

Feel bad for him after such a terrific rookie season, that 2010 will go down as basically a lost year for him.

"What makes him a tradeable commodity right now? Absolutely nothing."

Ibanez?
Who can you trade him for?
Absolutely No One!
Say it again!
Huh!

you can make the argument that the phillies could afford more salary, but i dont think they should ever consider loans to finance the payroll. Its a business. They're allowed to profit from it.

And I wouldnt be surprised if the phillies (over the last couple seasons) have spent a higher PERCENTAGE of their revenue on their payroll than the yankees... so I really dont have any complaints about the owners...

The Big Problem !!

Howard is a 2nd half player.

Great way to start the second half.

Uh oh, PhillyJoe. Don't let Heather hear you say that...

Can we get the game started so as not to rehash the spending patterns of the Phillies ownership group vs. the rest of the league (or vs. what anyone "feels" it should be)?

That'll play.

Howard just destroys righties when he's locked in. He could get on a nice run here.

Do we need Euphronius to be the one to determine when we can stop considering Ryan Howard a problem?

BAP - Contracts are something of a hybrid of an asset and a liabililty. There's a big messy part of the chapter 3 of the Code that deals with them.

Eujudgeforus?

You do have to wonder why Dempster threw Howard a first-pitch fastball out over the plate.

Did he not get the scouting report?

Word is Howard said in the clubhouse before the game, "Hope you enjoy the ride on my back boys."

As bap said, Howard is a 2nd half player.

I don't think the Phillies would be trading Ibanez to get something, other than a starting position for Dom Brown. They'd be lucky to get a 2nd tier prospect.

Jay-Z called. Said 99 Problems, but the Big Piece ain't one...

Few players can carry a team like Howard does at times.

Bed Beard - if they could get a starting spot for Brown and room to resign Werth, that would be a hell of a deal for Rauuuuul.

Ummmm, ouch? That HBP couldn't have been more than about 65 mph.

"Few players can carry a team like Howard does at times."

I should have mentioned that in my Howard contract diatribe.

The Big Problem is making me euphorious. I love it when he goes on a tear.

And Jack, I think you are right about MLB. From what I've dug up, they're the DIP lender.

And I realize he isn't on a tear yet, but I smell a tear a'comin'. Smells like... walkoff victories.

So, the Miller Lite "Great Taste, Less Philling" billboard outside of right field, that's specifically for the Phils' visit?

If I was going to get hit by a pitch I wouldn't mind if it was Moyer's Reagan era fastball.

sophist: I'll defer to your expertise on bankruptcy law. My only knowledge of bankruptcy comes from a pithy, one-sentence response that my secured transactions proessor gave, when one of the students asked where the bankruptcy lawyer lines up among bankruptcy creditors. His response: "What bankruptcy lawyer in his right mind takes payment on credit?"

Well Pappy Moyer, there are your runs for the evening. Now do your thing. The bats are off to catch a set at Buddy Guy's Legends bar.

Myoer's fastball trickles down to the plate.

It's never a good sign to see Moyer struggling with his control.

Typical Moyer meltdown inning.

At the game. Terrible pitching by Moyer. Awful.... AWFUL defense from ibanez

Remember the backlash when the Phillies weren't more serious in trying to sign Soriano? Ah, those were good times...

BAP - You might want to ask for some money back because the answer is - of course - that the lawyers, wise as they are, are paid first!

I'm guessing it's the horrendous flow of play-by-play that had me recollecting this post from just the other day:

For a little no account guy with a critter on his head wheels has caused a lot of havoc in the booth and affected a lot of lives in a negative way. That being said, hope he still has enough juice left to alter TMac's career path.

Posted by: Ed | Wednesday, July 14, 2010 at 02:14 PM

Moyer's pitching was sloppy but not exactly awful.

sophist: Wasn't me. Was some student in my class who asked.

Figures that the bankruptcy laws would take care of the lawyers first, since most of our law-makes are lawyers.

Hey... the Rollins/Victorino Starting Pair bowed out quietly, but the washed-up, untradable Raul Ibanez got himself on base to get batted in.

I say we dump him tonight. Whaddaya think?

as much as i enjoy no TMAC... the consolation is 9 innings of wheels and sarge...

awful....

If you are Jamie Moyer and your strike/ball ratio is 16/12 you will not last long. With his stuff it has to be 16/4 not 16/12.

Moyer routinely gives up these innings and then settles in for 5-6 strong...let's give the man some rope here, I think he's earned it.

No doubt that Valdez was just guessing up there. He looked like a "replacement player" during that AB. Wish he could have at least turned the lineup over.

***With his stuff it has to be 16/4 not 16/12.***

Agreed. Give him time though. If he settles in, he'll be fine. Nobody is better at mid-game adjustments than Mr. Moyer.

Valdez is a replacement player. To expect more than good defense and the occasional hit from him is asking too much.

Hell, the guy was our 3rd SS coming into the season.

NEPP, I agree, and I have set my expectations accordingly. That said, it would be nice if he (and the other replacement players) weren't getting the sheer number of AB's they've gotten this year.

Um, not sure how much time Moyer is getting tonight. He's missing spots and getting smoked.

Was Vic playing 2B there? WTF?

This game feels like a 2009 Moyer special.

Unless he turns it around quickly, this is going to be a short night's work for Moyer. His command isn't there & every pitch is getting ripped. With a rested pen, Cholly needs to have a quick hook.

Booooo! Boooooo!

Didn't the exact same thing happen the first game after we sent Figgy down the first time?

Clearly God is a Nelson Figueroa fan.

Remember when Werth could do that? Sigh...

Watching on Gamecast, which says Castro stole home. Legit, or did the ball get away from Chooch?

At least we have a guy like Figueroa for just this circumstance, in case Moyer can't go deep.

Wait, what? We needed to keep David Herndon? And Danys Baez has a guaranteed 2-year deal? Awesome. Good call.

"Clearly God is a Nelson Figueroa fan."

Well, we sure as hell know he's not a Cubs fan.

What's with all of the commercials on MLB.tv?

If only we had Figueroa - we'd be up 5 games in the standings.

I remember the first month of MLB.tv where there were no commercials...then a bunch popped up starting in May. Isn't it enough that I'm paying $20 a month for the privilege?

Cubs cameraman checking out the local talent...

To Spitz....the ball skipped away from Ruiz, it wasn't a legit steal.

Jack: Would you really have rather kept veteran replacement-level reliever Nelson Figueroa than a promising young player (Herndon) because he can throw approximately 1 extra inning? Would you have sent Herndon back to the Angels in order to keep Figueroa?

Spitz: The runner was breaking on what was an intended suicide squeeze. But Moyer ended up throwing the ball in the dirt & it got away from Ruiz.

Am I the only one that would rather have the version of Vic that hits .292 with a .350+ OBP?...albeit with less power?

Come to think of it, maybe those 3 days without Phillies games were a good thing. I already feel my blood pressure rising.

The Phillies bats are knocking back the 2nd round of beers. Feet up on the table, talkin' about the old times and how badass they were in the 1st inning. Good times!

Dont know how that's possible...the beer selection at Wrigley sucks

Okay...that's enough rope. Get him out of there while the game's still in reach.

The bats? Oh they've left the stadium.

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