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Thursday, July 29, 2010

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42 errors? Was Villar doing his best 'Tanner Boyle' impersonation?

Are people really distraught that we got Roy Oswalt, but had to give up a 19-year old shortstop prospect with 41 errors, a ghastly number of strikeouts, and a .690 OPS, who is about 5 years away from the major leagues in the unlikely event that he ever gets there?

So does Oswalt start tomorrow?

MaDubbs, jk. Did you read someone's post about no physicals for midseason trades? Is that real or bunk?

Bay: Why do you ask? Do you think he's Mr. In Between?

This was a brutal trade...for the Astros.

Rube did good to bend them over.

CJ - In the world of high ceiling prospects, there is a real question about which of the two has more value.

Singleton is a 1B/DH with a chance to be a leftfielder. So, he's locked into a pretty undemanding fielding position. His bat is already ahead of Villar.

Villar plays the second most demanding defensive position on the field and appears to have huge upside at that position. Great range and arm. Needs polish. And he is already a good hitter with upside there as well.

I think as prospects, they are actually fairly close. Hated to lose either of them, but Wade had to get something of value.

R.Bill: Galvis is considered a superior defender--he's probably a better defender than half the shortstops in the majors right now.

But considering he simply can't hit, and Villar is showing that he can hit for average and steal bases, Villar has to be considered the better prospect, at least for me. I would imagine that most teams prefer the higher-upside Villar (could be good defensively and offensively) than the known commodity of Galvis (great defensively and terrible offensively).

Singleton is way ahead of Villar as a prospect.

Amaro's 'smugness' will be back in full force in the press conference.

Anyone who mentions Cliff Lee is rumored to be beaten on site and removed by force from the press conference.

Villar>Galvis.

Really? Is that true? (no sarcasm)

I've been hearing about Galvis for years (mainly from BL) and all of the sudden Villar is better?

Not trying to come across as a jerk, here, but why all of the sudden? Villar is hitting better than Galvis did at Lakewood, but not so much better than I would discount the fact that Galvis is supposed to be a far superior defensive SS.

Villar is out of the Phillies Dominican operation. Great range, projectible bat. Won't ever walk or show much power, but if he can hit for average and has an above-average glove at SS he'll be an everyday player.

"This was a brutal trade...for the Astros.

Rube did good to bend them over"

I'm sure someone will complain that Amaro didn't even do Ed Wade the courtesy of a reach around. (Maybe Dave Cameron....Don't get me wrong, I am not a R00b fan, but Dave Cameron almost has a personal vendetta against the man.)

Wait, has anyone actually complained about the deal?

It's a steal for the Phillies. I was just explaining why Villar was a decent prospect, and certainly better than Worley. I think that's a nice move for the Astros, swapping in Villar for Worley.

It's still a great deal for the Phils. Why would you think anyone here was "distraught" about it? We're just talking about baseball.

Dave Cameron hates the Phillies, their process of evaluation and Rube...its not a surprise that he won't come up with anything good to say.

Old Phan: What am I, Warren Buffett?

Seriously, though, it's still cheaper to drive & park than take SEPTA (although SEPTA remains, for the moment, cheaper than a taxi), & I live in Philadelphia proper. That's how f*cked up public transportation is in this city.

I think I'll leave soon & just get blotto in the parking lot.

Bedrosian - Singleton is way ahead of Villar as a prospect? Um, not as much as you'd think.

I love people who now post that they've never heard of Villar so we can't know anything about him or value him as a real prospect. Well, this isn't usually the place where prospects get discussed. Why would anyone have mentioned him here?

The trade is indeed a steal. However, Rube is going to have to actually start looking for shortstops in the draft or internationally. JRoll has become a bit brittle. And the Phillies draft fewer middle infielders than any other team in baseball year after year.

Sophist - thanks, I knew someone with more knowledge in bankruptcy law would bail me out. Still stinks a franchise like that has to go through it. A valid example in terms of accuracy, but who really plays hockey in Phoenix anyway? I'm based in southern Arizona, and I can tell you that hockey is the furthest thing on my mind most days.

Posted by: phanatic's brother | Thursday, July 29, 2010 at 02:25 PM==

R. A. stands for Ruben Amaro

He's hitting .270 (.690 OPS) at Lakewood. Not exactly lighting the world on fire.

I'm not saying that he will be a complete bust, but you would think the Phils traded away a sure-fire, can't miss prospect who plays great D and hits .325 with power.

I don't see this as a huge loss. Perhaps time will prove differently.

NEPP: Your obsession with Fangraphs is really funny. Who cares what they say?

No offense, but you kind of sound like a child: "Waaaahhhh, some website doesn't like the Phillies, wahhhhhh". Like, really? Stop reading it then.

Anyway, I went over to Fangraphs just to see if they were bashing the Phillies, and amazingly I saw an article titled "Halladay Continues to Bedazzle". Hmm, that didn't seem too negative. But what do I know?

This trade is Happ for Roy oswalt, simple. None of the prospects matter besides domonic brown cause nobody can help us win this year.

It also is not about cliff lee anymore. It is a team 3.5 games back acquiring a number 1 pitcher for 27 year old ja nobody happ

GTown Dave: Do you park for free?

****NEPP: Your obsession with Fangraphs is really funny. Who cares what they say? ****

Overall, its a good website. Cameron is an ass when it comes to the Phillies is all. Jack, you sometimes complain about this site, why do you come here?

Greg

I know you were kidding, I honestly have no clue, that is the reason why I am so worried about it. I dont' want to get burned because right now it seems to good to be true consisdering what we gave up the the $$$ we got back.

Dave Cameron hates the Phillies and Ruben Amaro! oh wait http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-lee-to-philadelphia/

oops!

"Dave Cameron hates the Phillies, their process of evaluation and Rube ... it's not a surprise that he won't come up with anything good to say."

I myself am on record as being somewhat less than a fan of r00b. Unless Oswalt shows up w/ no arms, no legs & the testicular fortitude of '09-vintage Sally Hamels, however, I see nothing for which to criticize Smugly Q. Genius RE: this particular deal.

ak: Singleton is a top 50 in baseball per BA, and a top 20 via KLaw(I think).

Money Quote:

"Sorry Cleveland – you got hosed here. This is just not a good deal for the Indians in any way, shape, or form. Ruben Amaro just cleaned Mark Shapiro’s clock on this trade."

-Dave Cameron

Heyman thinks the Astros "did fine" getting Happ and Gose in the deal. Of course, that means it was a BRUTAL deal for the Astros.

Well done, Ruben. Try not to be too much of a douche at the press conference.

R.Billingsly: "He's hitting .270 (.690 OPS) at Lakewood. Not exactly lighting the world on fire."

He's 19, young for the level.

When looking at minor league stats, look at age first. Villars hitting .270 at Lakewood is way more impressive than Rizzotti hitting .370 at Reading.

aksmith: Well, this isn't usually the place where prospects get discussed.

I disagree. There is plenty of prospect talk on this board. I don't think the point is that Villar hasn't been talked about, so therefore people must think he's not a good prospect. Speaking only for myself, it was surprising that people were so sorry to see him go. Usually people say things like "as long as the deal doesn't include Singleton, Worley, Cosart, Colvin, etc." Never once did anyone say "as long as the deal doesn't include Villar..." That's why it struck me as odd.

I do agree that Villar has more upside than Worley, although Worley has a higher probability of actually having a meaningful major league career. If I were the Astros, I'd probably rather have Villar. But, from the Phillies' vantage point, Worley is the more valuable player because, with Happ gone & Moyer injured, we don't really have a 6th starter. Carpenter has not impressed when he has been given the chance, so Worley is probably the guy who would get the call if we need someone to make an emergency start. That is of more value to us than a toolsy 18-year old shortstop with a ton of holes in his game.

Ed Wade finally made a trade to help the Phillies. Only took a dozen or so years.

BB - Singleton rose up the charts off a good half season. He has come back to earth. I think he's an outstanding prospect. But Villar is a very good prospect. Yeah, there's a difference. But it's not like Singleton is at a position of need or has the defensive upside of Villar either.

Yes, there's a difference. But like I said, it's not as much as you think.

Villar age 19 season, SAL: .690 OPS, 103 K in 371 AB
C.J. Henry age 20 season, SAL: .692 OPS, 111 K in 366 AB

Dan in Philly - "as my wife reminds me you have to give a little something to get a little something sometimes."

The real question is: Is what you are getting worth all that you are giving? Each offer stands on it it's own merit I suppose. Of course, in some cases if it is she who has what it is that you want, she is in complete control, no?

Now has does Ed Wade fit in here?

Great couple of days to be a Phillies fan...

Dom Brown arrives.
Roy Oswalt is acquired.

And compare this to the collective mood of Beerleaguer after the first 3 games of that Cardinals series. It was only a week ago...

BAP: Completely agree.

Maybe a better way to think about it is this: You're 12 years old in Little League. On the same team is your little brother, Jonathan, who's 8, and your Uncle Matthew, who's 27. All three of you face the same 12-year-old pitchers.

donc - Lidge deal?

Trade Nazi to Wade:

'No Singleton for you!'

Villar >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Galvis

without a doubt. no room for debate there.

If Galvis hit .280, stole 50 bases a year and was a few years younger, he'd be Villar.
He'd also be a top prospect.

I'm okay with the deal, but losing Villar definitely hurts. Replacing Villar will require giving an early draft pick or intl FA a seven figure signing bonus. On the bright side, there seem to be a lot of good SS prospects in the 2011 draft and we'll have 3 early picks if Werth rejects arbitration.

CJ, the season was already over after the Cardinals series.

Good point, CJ. Amazing how quickly things can turn in this game.

clout: I understand that, and you're right. Hence, I wrote "I'm not saying that he will be a complete bust..."

No one knows how he will end up. What I'm trying to say is I think the trade was a steal for the Phils today. Losing Jonathan Villar, whether he turns out to be a serviceable everyday player or not, is not high on my list of losses.

You have to give up prospects to make a deal like this, and there are many other players on the list I'd be more disappointed to see go than Villar. That's all.

Haha. Stark is sure the Phils pay a 'huge price' for Oswalt with prospects.

Villar & Gose are a 'huge price?' Curious would be a steal for the Phils.

Oswalt for Happ + 2 lottery tickets. Not as great as the Lee deal a year ago, but not bad. Not bad at all.

ak: We'll agree to disagree on it. No biggie.

GTown: I'm no fan of Cholly, but I can see him letting Dom get a few games under his belt before facing a lefty. Either that, or Werth showed him around town til 6AM.

I'm 90% this deal doesn't get done without my promised gift card to Cabela's.

@NEPP what are the odds that a whole site is great, but they just happen to have a bias against your favorite team? Maybe you should do a little introspection? Possibly concede that they may be more objective? or less attached?

RB - Yeah, I get it. I would have to say for myself that it never occurred to me that Wade knew who Villar was. Kind of figured he was a bit of a well kept secret.

Back to the drawing board for the new heir apparent to Rollins. Maybe Rube Jr. has a short stop backup plan that is not apparent. But they never go for the big dollar international guys and they rarely draft anyone at the position. That has always seemed like poor strategy to me. I generally like what the Phillies do in the later rounds with high upside difficult signs. But it hasn't netted them a shortstop worth talking about yet.

If Vallar isn't ready until 2013 or 14, I know time is tight, but that gives the Phils a little time to find his replacement.

this might mean Phillies still in the hunt for Tejada...

Singleton is 18, Villar is 19....Villar came out of no where after not being discussed all day. Singleton, Cosart and Colvin are the 3 guys I didn't want to see go, so I am ecstatic.. Why all of the sudden are "self proclaimed" writers for Baseball America going to come out of the woodwork and defend Villar like he is the 2nd coming of Ozzie Smith or Cal Ripken??????

Halladay - Hi, I'm Roy Halladay. Welcome to the team.
Oswalt - HOLY VARMENTS! YA'LL NAME IS ROY TOO? (chews entire bag of Redman tobacco at once, spits in Kendrick's locker)
Kendrick - Hey! That's my locker!
Ruben - (to Kendrick) You're still on the team? (to Oswalt) What made you finally decide to come to the Phillies?
Oswalt - WELL, (puts down PBR), I finally took the tampon out and said GIT-R-DONE!
Ruben - Yeah, we've dealt with tampons before (points to Cole, who is playing with his puppy that he carries in a backpack)

Todd Zolecki (via Twitter): "Roy Oswalt will pitch tomorrow night for the Phillies in DC against the Nationals."

Maybe a better way to think about it is this: You're 12 years old in Little League. On the same team is your little brother, Jonathan, who's 8, and your Uncle Matthew, who's 27. All three of you face the same 12-year-old pitchers.

Come one, clout. That's ridiculous. I think we understand what you are driving at without reducing us (more specifically, me) to that kind of stuff. If you read the previous threads, I made the same point with Rizzotti v. Singleton. I won't rehash it, but it's there (in a different context, though).

If I'm not making my point clearly enough, I apologize. I'm not an idiot, as much as you'd like to think I am.

Last night-Roy
Tomorrow night-Vice Roy

Anyone who doesn't think Dave Cameron dislikes R00b, UC, and the Phillies in general should read his game day chat on the AS game. Here are a few tidbits:

I asked this of a Phillies fan the other day. If you were a Phillies fan, would you trade Chase Utley and Ruben Amaro for Theo Epstein?

Tuesday July 13, 2010 7:27 Nick
7:27 Dave Cameron: No. I'd just fire Amaro and hire a good GM from one of the front offices of a smart team and keep Utley.

Most over-rated MLB player? Most under-rated MLB player? Same with GM's and Managers. Thanks!

Tuesday July 13, 2010 7:43 Guest
7:43 Dave Cameron: They're hitting 2nd and 4th for the NL tonight - Martin Prado and Ryan Howard. You can probably figure out which is which.

would howard be in the line up with any other manager for the nl?

Tuesday July 13, 2010 9:09 dave
9:10 Dave Cameron: No way. Actually concerned about Charlie Manuel's mental health after his press conference yesterday

Is there any place I can find audio of Manuel's press conference? I gotta hear these gems he said.

Tuesday July 13, 2010 9:24 NM
9:24 Dave Cameron: MLB Network carried it live, so its gotta be online somewhere. Try youtube. Maybe search for "senile old man"


Least deserving All-star other than Omar Infante?

Tuesday July 13, 2010 10:45 AJ
10:45 Dave Cameron: Charlie Manuel

The Redsox give up prospect Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and they go on to win a World Series. I dont think any Sox fans would change anything.

Say what you want about RAJ but everyone will remember when Oswalt pitches game 3 vs AJ Burnett in the World Series this year. Villar who?

fangraphs/Cameron are perfectly objective in the sense that they use the same statistically based metrics to evaluate most transactions. It is true that some of those guys take what seem to be gratuitous shots at Amaro and the Phils during some chats/podcasts. I wouldn't say it's bias, but it does seem silly and they do come across as blind to some of the limits to their analysis and some of the Phils strengths.

@aksmith -- How old is singleton and what are his hitting stats compared to Vilar?

These guys still need to progress through 3 more levels before they play in the majors. I'd rather bet on the guy with a K/BB rate like Singleton's than guy like Vilar, regardless of the position they play at low single A.

and there's heather posting exactly what I'm talking about. fangraphs is a great resource, but those guys need to work on how their communication skills/humility.

If the Phillies become more open to the idea of opening their 'salary cap' to obtain some quality bench guys, the heir apparent's that have been mentioned may not be missed 5 years from now.

Besides, I think they at least have shown that their willingness to sign quality players in order to win and stay competitive is a far cry from years gone by when we sat and watched everyone else improve at the deadline while picking away at the Phillies best players.

Remember when Steve Phillips said the Nationals should deal Strasburg for Oswalt? How bout Happ and two prospects outside the BA top 100?

(points to Cole, who is playing with his puppy that he carries in a backpack)

that's freaking genius.

Howdydoody- I think Villar is a year older. And yes, what makes Singleton special is his plate discipline. But he's also very likely not to have a position on the Phillies. And Villar is the best future hope for what will be a position of need.

I am fine with the trade. I'd have rather they traded two toolsy outfielders or a pitcher with a reliever upside than Villar, that's all I'm saying.

I think this trade will end up a steal for us. Gose will be good, and I do love watching Happ claw his way out of jams, but this pushes us over the edge this year and maybe next (though it means we certainly won't be in the CLee auction), and I don't believe the Houston farm system will progress Villar/n as much as ours. We draft toolsy guys with more upside than immediate skill, so our system is primed to develop these players. From what I've heard this is exactly the kind of player Villar is, and I don't know how well he'll fill out with the 'Stros. Of course, I'd rather he develop into a good MLB SS than not, but I find some consolation in the notion that he won't be helping other teams murder us so hard.

Or I could be totally wrong. Villar could be the second coming of Derek Jeter for all we know. That's the fun of it all

Amaro's philosphy as a GM:

"Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Always go for the throat. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem."

i agree w/ NEPP and Heather re: dave cameron. he has a serious axe to grind w/ roob. i was reading his chat yesterday and his jabs at everything RAJ was intolerable and made my blood boil, and i'm not a RAJ apologist. he's more of a smart@ss than a smartguy.

I know I have not posted on here before, I usually go to Philliesnation, but it is down again. I was just wondering where you get the prospects names that we in the trade, all I have heard is they are not releasing the pospects names yet. I admit that I do not know a lot about the phillies' A teams, but I like all the input on here

clout: For 2 people to travel from my home in Germantown to the vicinity of the Ballpark via Regional Rail & Broad Street Line on SEPTA costs ~$25. To drive & park costs $15 for Parking, plus ~$0.20/mi. for fuel. I live 11.6 driving mi. from the park (checked it out on my odometer earlier in the season), so that's around $5 round trip, which makes for a total driving cost of ~$20. It's also considerably faster to drive, even taking traffic into account, & considerably easier (far less walking, waiting around & dealing w/ crowds ... not to mention not having to deal w/ SEPTA employees, who are some of the most unpleasant people on the face of this planet). Overall, SEPTA provides ZERO incentive for me to shell out more than I already must in tax dollars to subsidize their piss poor service.

The great thing about BL is that I can read about all of Villar's minor league accomplishments from here on whenever anything of interest happens to him for the next 4 or 5 years, and then re-live the debate about the Oswalt trade all over again, and again, and again...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-roy-oswalt-deal-philadelphias-perspective/

"Reports are that the deal is done, and the Phillies have acquired Roy Oswalt. Regardless of why it was necessary, this looks like a pretty big win for Philadelphia. "

-Dave Cameron


Must be a typo, not enough of TEH BIAS AND TEH HATE.

goody: I think I'd rather let Dom face a LHP than Raúl. Besides which, he's gonna hafta see one eventually. Charlie can't hide Brown away from LHP forever, like he does w/ Dobbs.

Phillies actually take on no money this year in this deal. Wow.

"Kudus to Ruben Amaro for this deal."

- Dave Cameron

hell just froze over.

Amazing deal by Ruben. Got the 2nd best pitcher on the market and has him locked up for at least another year.

A Valdez upgrade would be nice.

Also, theres nothing you can really do with Lidge, I really hope he can learn to throw a f'n strike with his fastball before the playoffs.

SWEEP THE LEG, RUBE!!!

MG - Trading Places? One of my favorites. Aaron Russo (producer) was a friend of mine. Sadly, he died a few years back.

This deal seems almost too good.
Is Ed Wade the "player to be named later" in the deal so he can get off the sinking ship in Houston?

Billigsly: I was trying to be amusing there.

Yo, new thread.

MaDubbs: I think BA rated Villar the Phils 22nd best prospect going into the season and he's more than holding his own in a pitching-oriented league where the vast majority of players are older than he is.

That doesn't make Villar the second coming of The Wizard, but he is a good prospect and, because of his bat, he's more likely to be an everyday major leaguer than Freddy Galvis.

A soft throwing 6'6" lefty and our two fastest prospects for Roy Oswalt. Great to be on the other side of a typical Ed Wade trade.

I predict Gose and Villar will become above-average starters on the MLB level, but they're both only 19 years old.

Bourn, Gose and Villar could someday give the Astros 150 steals a year...if anyone cares...

Wade got two shiny, new fancy toolsets, a solid #4 starter, and Rube got an Ace as our #3 starter, at a discount price, for the next couple years. Its a fine trade for both sides. With the Dodgers and Cards out of the running, Wade was forced to make a deal. Considering the circumstances, he did alright.

GTown: I drive to SEPTA's Fern Rock parking lot, which is free on weekends, and take the Express to the ballpark. Total cost: $3.10 ($6.20 for two) plus whatever the 5 mile drive cost in gas etc. On a night when the stadium is full it is much faster than driving.

aksmith - Yes. One of my favorite movies. Back when both Eddie Murphy and Dan Akryond were both still very funny.

you really want to complain about Valdez, you can not have all stars sitting on your bench waiting to play. Valdez is an above average defender with a canon for an arm, OK he is not a 300 hitter, but he has filled his roll very ;nicely this year. You need a defense first guy on your bench. Get off his back, he does what he is suppose to do, make plays in the field, and once a month get a hit

McTaggart for MLB.com says the deal was Happ, Gose, and Jonathan Villar, a shortstop at Lakewood (A). I've never even heard of Villar. Anybody?

It's not that Villar is an amazing prospect, it's that he was the Phillies best prospect at a position that is weak in the system. I don't think anyone would refuse the deal based on Villar's inclusion, it just highlights the fact that the Phillies have very few infield prospects because they draft very few infield prospects. I find it odd that Wade would push for his inclusion over more pitching because Houston used their top pick last year on a ss.

Why does everyone hate Brett Wallace?

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