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Thursday, July 29, 2010

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CJ, I think the rumors are that Mathieson goes in instead of Worley.

Petey - Phils got half a season of Lee also.

Rosenthal has new players in the deal:

J.A. Happ, OF Anthony Gose, SS Jonathan Villan

Ken_Rosenthal

The players in the Oswalt deal, which is still not official: J.A. Happ, OF Anthony Gose, SS Jonathan Villan. #Phillies #Astros #MLB


who????????????

Conventional wisdom also says -- or at least, it SHOULD say -- that Happ isn't likely to be of much help this year. He hasn't been able to find the strike zone all year, whether pitching in the majors or minors. It could be injury-related; it could just be a bad spell or a mechanical issue. Eventually, I think he'll get it straightened out. But there's very little reason to believe that it will get straightened out this season.

Who the hell is Jonathan Villan?

It's Jonathan Villar

Ed Wade makes me LOL.

Villan is what they say on WIP too.

Is Villar in the deal now? That would suck.

Today's lineup:

Polanco
Victorino
Francisco
Howard
Werth
Ransom
Ruiz
Valdez

Petey Pablo - Its Actually 4 years of Halladay. This season at $15.75 million, then the 3 year extension (3 yr, $60 million). Plus there is vestin options that can make it longer.

Old Phan, you are correct. BP odds have been against us making the playoffs for a couple of months now, so we, collectively, have given up any hope and we're just riding it out to see if we can get bragging rights over the Mets and Marlins.

He means Lakewood SS Jonathan Villar (one of our better prospects and our only real SS prospect...sorry Galvis.

Not sure I like that.

Sophist,
Good point. And clearly significant, given his performance in the playoffs.

Sct - Oswalt xFIP 2009: 3.93 Happ xFIP 2009: 4.58. Yesterday Sophist posted all of Happ's stat's with RISP, which put him WAY above league average in strand rate. Most would suspect that Happ's 2.93 ERA is not sustainable given the peripheral numbers, while Oswalt is a proven #1-caliber pitcher signed for this year and next.

I guess Ed Wade figured he owed you guys one. Great trade for the Phills. Congrats.

a quick google search finds this in a list of top Phils prospects from Feb/10

No. 22: shortstop Jonathan Villan, who signed as a 16-year-old in 2008. He hit .231 in 11 games at Williamsport last year and BA says he has "as much upside" as any Phillies infield prospect.

This deal keeps getting better all the time.

By the next insider tweet, it'll be Hewitt, Villan and a sampler platter from Luzinski's for Oswalt and $15 mil.

damn jonathan villar's good. damn good. supposedly the "best defensive tools of any shortstop in the minors." (BA, i think) 41 errors notwithstanding.

He's a shortstop prospect at Single A. A pretty decent hitter, with the potential to be a good defensive player. The operative word here is "potential." His error total this year is ghastly. But he probably does have more upside than Worley.

Villar has gotten some rave reviews recently. Lots of errors, but known as a flashy fielder.

CJ, Vic's on the DL.

WS - Don't include the macaroni and cheese. I will only include the macaroni and cheese for pitchers named C___ L___.

WOW..so we keep Worley as well..call him up send herndon down!

I'd be happy to have kept Worley, simply to have as a guy that could pitch in an emergency.

I'd rather have Singleton for Villar... so let's just say I'm still more than okay with this deal.

Including Villar actually changes my view a bit. He's the heir apparent at SS, though years away.

Today's lineup:

Polanco
Victorino Ibanez
Francisco
Howard
Werth
Ransom
Ruiz
Valdez

Supposedly Villar is going to be good. His errors are said to be due to great range. And he can hit, which is more than Galvis appears able to do.

I'd rather have Singleton than Villar, let's not get crazy here.

Despite the error total, he is considered a very good defender. Its the low minors, it happens like that sometimes for middle infielders with great range.

He could've been the heir apparent, but since he is years away and still "raw", I'd hesitate to use the word "heir".

(would be cool if his last name was "Villan"(sic)

I'll vote to give up an 18 year old average hitting defensive shortstop with 41 errors every day and twice on Sunday instead of our top AAA pitching prospect, our top AAA closer and our top single A bat.

Rosenthal:

Deal is done. #Astros #Phillies #MLB

BOOYAH!

I wouldn't lose too much sleep over Villar. He has a .690 OPS, a ton of strikeouts, hardly any walks & about a zillion errors in low A ball. He steals a lot of bases & is only 19, but there are so many "Ifs" there that he's a significant long-shot to ever make the major leagues, let alone be any good. In short, the guy is a pretty good prospect if only he can learn to hit and field.

So Charlie is going to tread Dom Brown like any other Phillie and make believe he can't hit pitchers who throw from his side of the plate.

I like a lot of what Charlie does for the team. But this is simply stupid.

Wow. Rosenthal just Tweeted that the DEAL IS DONE!

This is a steal for the Phillies!

"I think I'm missing something. Why is Happ (practically free, sub-3 ERA, good stuff) so easy to bid adieu? I'm trying to see Oswalt as a significant upgrade, and I'm not sure I do — regardless of the money and the prospects."

welcome to baseball, maam. thank you for your interest. i think you'll find the game pleasant, if not a bit slow. for your information, roy oswalt has been one of the best pitchers in the game of baseball for quite some time, while young happ is (likely) an average major league arm. (no offense to heather or our other female posters with the 'maam' comment)

I'm still happy, but it depresses me to know there's no one in system at SS.

I tried to shed a tear for Villar... but couldn't even manage to get watery eyes.

This is a GREAT deal for the Phils.

Happ, Villar, Gose for Oswalt and $11M, plus we don't have to pick up the option.

Really, what's not to like?

I'm psyched for this. Is there gonna be an hourlong special on ESPN with proceeds benifitting Roy 2.0's favorite charity? Filmed on location at said charity, in a strategically placed city of ESPN's choosing? Or is that only for the King?

Villar isn't a huge loss, upside is there but oh well.


We pretty much fleeced Wade here. Not surprising though.

dlhunter,
Villar is 18 years old, in A ball, with 41 errors in 2010. If he's the heir, he wouldn't be assuming the throne until about 2015. I'm sure they can figure something out by then. Still a good deal, IMHO.

Well, assuming they keep Werth, and he leaves as an FA, they can use one of their draft picks on a SS.

Cue clout...

Why does Heather have to be a female?

They still would have need a bridge from Rollins to Villar, that is assuming that Villar would have continued to make progress, which is never a slam dunk. I am suprised with the amount of cash that houston is allegedly sendin our way in this deal. I would probably trade Happ for 11mm, then it becomes two single A guys for Oswalt, not bad, not bad at all.

Can anyone recommend a good hand lotion for all of that hand scratching aksmith & Sophist are doing?

I wonder how Fangraphs will spin this as a negative for the Phillies...

Smells like '08 again!

Beard, and you'd figure that draft pick's ETA would be roughly the same as Villar's.

And Rosenthal writing about what a bad deal this is. What a champ he is. Or is it Chump?

Stuffwise and statwise, Happ is a back of rotation starter. Oswalt is front of rotation starter.

Obviously a lot of conflicting reports floating around about who the 3rd and/or 4th player in the trade is and how the 2012 buyout will work. I did read a report that said the Phils want to move the 2012 money back, not actually add to it, which contradicts other reports.

Also, Jonathan Villan?

This deal is unbelievably in the Phillies favor. I can't think of one thing to complain about. Happ, Gose, Villar, $11M and the Phils aren't require to exercise his option.

Is Wade kidding?

Villar: .272/.332/.358, and 42 Errors in 99 games. Yes, that's right 42 Es in 99 games. Granted, he's only 19, but still.

STEAL!!!

Remember how we all felt after Schilling and Rolen? That's how Houston must feel right now.


That was a bad feeling.

I can't wait to see how big a cheek or lip Oswalt packs in his first start.

Mack - what does that even mean?

Still can flip Worley/Mathieson/Rizzotti for a reliever or 2b/SS help.

matthewcerrone (via twitter): Mets lose in 13 innings. Phillies close to getting Roy Oswalt. Dear Baseball, please stop punching me in the face. Thank you.

Ed Wade has become the gift that keeps on giving.

Also, I'm still massively bummed that Dom Brown isn't in tonight's lineup. With Kendrick on the mound one might think Charlie might choose fielding the best offense he possibly could. One would be wrong. Unfortunately, his ignorant match-up fetish holds sway once again. Boooooooooooo!!!!!!

NEPP,
Oswalt's WAR is only 3.0 this year, which makes his contract slightly above market. Plus, the Phils lose a young, controllable arm in Happ, who significantly outperformed his contract in 2009, and two of their best prospects. Clear win for Ed Wade.

/fangraphs

I know I'm not supposed to, but I feel bad for Happ.

Didn't the Astro's just draft DeSheilds Jr. this year too? Isn't he just a younger Gose? I wonder why they pushed so hard for that. Maybe Ed Wade is trying to out-Philly the Phillies, by seeing how many toolsy OFs he can stack up.

Let's not pretend that we're going to miss Jonathan. No one here had ever really heard of him before - hell, we can't even decide if his name is Villan or Villar. He's just out of high school age and not exactly lighting the world on fire at low-A.

For that, an often injured AAAA starter and a half decent speedy outfield prospect, we get 1.5 years of an ace and 11 million dollars to pay him.

Seriously, there is no reason to consider this as anything other than a steal.

GTown,
I'm bummed Dom isn't in the lineup for the simple reason that I'm going to the game tonight!!

Maybe Oswalt is already on a plane....

/pipe dream

Best part is that we didn't lose Werth.

Will Schweitzer: After the above sane post, consider my "neck punch" threat removed... It's a neck tickle now, like someone would do to a child...

Still waiting on denny b. to weigh in... I'm sure he can find the cloud in this silver lining.

GTown, it is truly horrifying that Brown isn't starting tonight, but it's only one game. Drink heavily now, and the sun will come out tomorrow.

The Phils got $11M, no option guarantee, and didn't give up any of Cosart, Singleton, Colvin or May.

CJ: I think denny will be happy to hear Worley is still around.

R. Bill: And Derek Jeter had 51 errors in the SAL too.

Ignore the errors. You're talking about a flawed stat (totally subjective scoring) at the major-league level, let alone the minor-league level--do you have any idea who even keeps track of errors? Do you know how many would be saved by having a major-league first baseman to scoop throws? Do you know how many of those are balls that other SS wouldn't even get to?

BA recently said that Villar had some of the best defensive tools in the minor leagues. Villar is still very raw, but a 19-year old SS hitting .272 with 38 steals and getting good reviews for his defense is a nice prospect.

It's still a good deal for the Phillies, but I'll give some credit to the Astros for getting Villar instead of Worley. Better prospect.

The only way this is a bad deal is Oswalt's back is that bad. Even then, the Phils are only on the hook for 1 season. Limited downside to say the least.

Wade helped the Phils to their WS in '08. My bet is he game them a real shot in the arm this year too.

Just as importantly, Oswalt did end up in St. Louis or Atlanta this year or next.

Fangraphs doesn't hate the Phillies, just Dave Cameron. And Pat Andriola. And...

Ok, Fangraphs does hate the Phillies.

denny is climbing off the railing as we speak.


Me, I'd rather have Villar than Worley but I'm odd like that. Either way, its still a huge win for us.

While Rube might not have set the world on fire when he was backed into a corner (i.e., C--- L--- part deux), he sure knows how to take advantage of the situation when he's holding the hammer (i.e., the first C--- L--- deal and the Oswalt caper).

In other news: Among other things, here's a great reason why deferred contracts are awful. A-Rod has filed an objection with courts in Texas over the Ranger's bankruptcy plans because he's afraid he won't be paid the $25M (roughly) he's owed. Mark my words, the Rangers are headed for an absolute disaster, it'll be a shame.

**Did we confirm that he has recieved a physical???? I have been harping on it ALL day long, they better have given Oswalt an extensive physical.

And they didn't give up Mathieson or Worley, the probable next call ups in case of injury. Sweet.

About Villar: Some of us actually follow the minor leagues. Those of you who look at Villar's errors and figure he's garbage should think again. That is what a talented young shortstop can look like in the low minors. However, I am not too upset the phillies included him in the deal. Just remember that they've had a very difficult time drafting shortstops and haven't signed any international players who've made an impact at the position. Donald and Villar are it. Galvis may never hit at any level. Although his fielding is already major league ready. But Villar is not a small price for Oswalt, although the trade does look like an Amaro swindle overall.

That's Lidge, isn't it? In the picture. The only reason I would think it might actually be Oswalt is the Eeyore expression. This guy's going to make Halliday look like Jose Lima in the personality department.

Id' rather have Villar and Worley, but short term, Worley may be of more use to the team.

NEPP - Would definitely rather have Villar than Worley, no question about that.

I'd rank Villar as my 4th most "untradeable" prospect, so this sucks.

I really liked Villar- solid bat, great range+arm, great speed(more steals than Gose). Villar seemed like a perfect successor to Rollins.

BA recently said Villar has "the best defensive tools" of any minor league SS. He's hitting well & leading the league in steals, despite being young for his league.

I'd offer JC Ramirez+Galvis in his place...

NEPP - I would have loved to see them trade Worley. I can't fathom why anybody would have been sad to see him go. He is back-end bullpen/organizational filler who is just having a pretty good year in the minors.

Suckering Wade into taking him would have been the cherry on top of the Oswalt sundae.

Old Phan: Can't. Driving to the game tonight. You know, the one in which Halladay & Brown won't be playing, but Kendrick & Francisco will.

Gah, just typing that makes me feel ill. I need a fifth of Beam & chauffeur.

Jack: I mostly concur w/ your evaluation, but 42 errors? That's a helluva lot, even taking into account scoring issues.

MaDubbs wants to give Oswalt an extensive physical.

:)

Jack: I understand. But isn't Freddy Galvis, by all accounts, a superior defender? Was Villar a more highly sought after commodity?

Honest questions, by the way.

What? We didn't lose Werth?

I thought it was insisted that one couldn't be done without the other?

What happened??

11 million Houston Astro bucks happened.

Ismael, ARod's objection seems like par for the course for these things. The MLB-favored bid plans to pay ARod, and all unsecured creditors in full. The only thing that would get in the way, it seems, is if somebody else wins. But MLB probably won't have too much trouble to keep that from arising (See the Red Sox sale a decade ago, or the NHL Coyotes sale recently).

Gtown, I haven't been in Philly for awhile, but don't they still have taxis?

**Greg** How about we get Freddy Garcia, Mike Jackson and Danny Tartabul to do it?

Villar>Galvis.

Old Phan: What am I, a Rockefeller?


"Mark my words, the Rangers are headed for an absolute disaster, it'll be a shame."

Ishmael: So you're saying the Phils have a chance to reclaim C. Lee, Texas Corn Row Walker?

We all agree we'd rather deal Villar than Singleton, right?

The Phils did the right thing by taking Werth off the table.

You clowns and your personally ranked prospects need to calm down. I didnt see anyone mention Villar before he got traded. Relax the window is now, does not matter who we give up this is our chance to win not in 4 years from today.

GTown, sorry, let me rephrase that. I haven't been in Philly for awhile, but don't they still have a subway?

****We all agree we'd rather deal Villar than Singleton, right?****

No question.

Losing Villar instead of Worley was a "Oh, that's ashame." Kinda along the lines of seeing a glint of silver on the sidewalk, thinking its a quarter and it ends up being a piece of foil". Not exactly a huge disappointment.

God forbid people enjoy a total and complete steal without complaining about giving up a low-A shortstop with 42 errors and an OPS under .700.

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