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Tuesday, July 20, 2010

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DFAing Dobbs and then sending Kendrick down. clout must be having a fit.

In Carp We Trust!


Carp will be fine in long-relief for the next 4 days...and he'll be setting himself up for his partial share of the WS check.

If Happ is the Phils big & only move at the deadline, this team isn't making the playoffs.

Step 1: Call up Andrew Carpenter
Step 2: Kidnap and drug Chris Carpenter
Step 3: Have Andrew Carpenter wear Chris Carpenter's uniform tonight and start against us
Step 4: Smuggle Chris back to Philly and have him be our deadline acquisition
Step 5: ???
Step 6: PROFIT!

Step 1: Call up Andrew Carpenter
Step 2: Kidnap and Drug Chris Carpenter
Step 3: Have Andrew Carpenter wear Chris's uniform tonight and start
Step 4: Smuggle Chris Carpenter back to Philly as our deadline acquisition.
Step 5: ???
Step 6: Profit!

Malcolm, for the last 3 years there have been people who gave up on the team in June, July, August, etc. I'm not being a blind optimist. There are 2 months of baseball yet to be played, and they are far from eliminated. We have seen this team come back before. We have seen insane winning streaks before. I'm not claiming they are going to the WFC again, but it makes no sense to throw the season away in July.

I don't like Kendrick and he's obviously a #5, but right now he's pitching better than our #3 and #4 pitchers.

What are they trying to do? Send a message to the clubhouse that poor performance won't be tolerated...unless of course, you're signed to a multi million dollar contract?

Stupid typepad.

absolutely ridiculous.

unless this is a sign that they're moving kendrick or something for upgrades elsewhere, this makes no sense, especially since its Carpenter who is coming up.

I'm no Kendrick lover, but he hasn't been treated very well by the Phillies. He's definitely better off somewhere else at this point.

I hope they are able to trade him.

JW: It's likely a pre-cursor to calling up Happ. Carpenter pitches in the pen the next few days, and Happ replaces Kendrick in the rotation over the weekend.

Even if it logically makes sense, it seems a bit panicky. What it must be to be David Herndon right now. Mr. Rule 5 Untouchable who has necessitated all sorts of roster gymnastics this year to keep him.

Just dont see how he's worth all this.


The Phillies are hapless, and Happ-less, this season. (That one's for you, Old Phan, as you're always making me chuckle with your puns.)

I admire Jimmy's determination in saying the season isn't over. Since he also realizes that "The guys with the balls and bats say when the season is over," how about he put his bat where his mouth is? He and the rest of them (Howard excepted). We've seen a few signs of life from those bats of late, it seems to me. (At the same time as the balls, in the hands of our pitchers, have shown too much life when struck by the other teams' bats.)

I'm not sure what to think about the KK move. My initial reaction is to be happy that something is being done about sucking. So maybe that's the value of making a move - To show the team that status quo is unacceptable and winning is still desirable? But yeah, why KK? I'm sure we can all think of others on the team we'd like to shake vigorously right now.

So, J-Roll, I hope your words help your teammates recapture their swagger. And/or fires the cylinders. Because we're putzing along in a beat-up bug while the contenders of the league are zooming around in racecars. And we fans are highly skeptical that you have it in you to catch up to the rest. Talk is great, but you gotta show us!


NEPP: "What it must be to be David Herndon right now. Mr. Rule 5 Untouchable who has necessitated all sorts of roster gymnastics this year to keep him."

My sentiments exactly. So what if you risk losing him if you send him down! Cholly does not have any confidence in him in a big spot anyway.

NEPP - Its just baffling. Keeping Herndon and his 1.67 WHIP on your roster all year is something you do if you are a team like the Pirates or Royals for the future. Not a playoff team like the Phils.

Yeah Herndon doesn't give up HRs (0 allowed this year in 32 1/3) which is impressive on a staff that looks like it is pitching on Home Run Derby at times. Not many BBs either and he keeps the ball on the ground.

Problem though is that he doesn't ever miss a bat let alone strike anyone and is really hit to make decent contact against especially if he get behind in the count.

This team is better of with Figueroa as a long man and certainly better off with KK as their long-man over Herndon.

A puzzling move. It almost has to be a precursor to something, although I rather doubt that Happ's recall is that something. Happ has pitched worse in AAA than Kendrick has pitched in the majors. A more likely explanation is that some sort of trade is about to go down.

Surely, it can't be as simple as the Phillies believing Carpenter will be an upgrade over Kendrick. That seems like a pretty dubious proposition.

I'm officially sick of David Herndon. A nice prospect, a nice guy to have in Lehigh? Sure, he's both of those...but holding a spot on the 25 man all year for him is ludicrous. Either offer him back or DL him with "blisters" or toss the Angels a bone to keep him but enough with this crap.

"What it must be to be David Herndon right now. Mr. Rule 5 Untouchable who has necessitated all sorts of roster gymnastics this year to keep him."

Great point.

"why KK?"

because he's the worst pitcher in the rotation.

It's easy to look at Blanton's ghastly ERA, but his other numbers indicate he's a much better bet moving forward than is Kendrick. (Besides, coming off his injury, he's been handled very poorly, consistently left in when it was clear to everyone in the park that he was tiring.) Even more so than Moyer, Kendrick has to be impossibly fine to have any chance at succeeding. The difference is Moyer knows how to pitch. (But if he's missing his spots, watch out.) Blanton is a good pitcher. He's likely here to stay, and if he can keep his K-rate up, that's a good thing. He's one of the good deals Amaro made in the offseason.

That said, I don't know anything about Carpenter. I suspect that it is in fact true that this is just a step towards finally being able to bring back Happ.

But it probably doesn't much matter. This just doesn't have the smell of a winning season. A combination of injuries, poor decision-making (like bad baserunning, impatience at the plate), and poor luck on batted balls (did you see Rollins' liner yesterday after KK had walked? That plus Werth being picked up is what the season has been like.)

"Even more so than Moyer, Kendrick has to be impossibly fine to have any chance at succeeding."

It's splitting hairs, but Kendrick has more margin for error than Moyer does. Kendrick just has to throw strikes and be effective with his sinkerball. Moyer really does have to be more impossibly fine. OTOH, Moyer IS impossibly fine slightly more often than Kendrick throws strikes & is effective with his sinker. Hence, Moyer is the slightly better pitcher.

What both guys have in common is that, if they're not on their game, they're just sitting ducks for major league hitters. Having 2 such guys in the same starting rotation is pretty dicey, as we've seen lately.

I am no fan of Kendrick, but he is getting a raw deal. He (or Figueroa) would have some value as a long man on this team. There is no way Herndon should be on this squad right now. Prospects are for the minor leagues. I would be willing to bet that Herndon spends the majority of next season at Lehigh Valley. This is Rube trying to tell everyone he stole a player via the Rule 5 draft. It is a good thing he doesn't have much of an ego.

David Herndon I'd imagine is being worked around because they view him as a good cheap piece for the bullpen going forward.

ideally he'd be in AAA developing but there must be some concern that the Angels would take him back, and thus he'd never see Lehigh Valley.

And really I'd rather him in the bullpen than Figueroa.

Over/under on the # of innings Carp pitches tonight after Jamie is blown out in the 2nd?

2? 3?

Sounds like someone told Rube about KK's K/9.

That all being said obviously Kendrick would be a better guy in the pen as the long man. I just don't think the Phillies view Kendrick as a long man- they view him as a starter.

NEPP - For a team that is trying to make the playoffs, the "let's start Valdez and his sub .600 OPS everyday at 2B" instead of playing Dobbs at 3B & Polanco at 2B and keeping Herndon as the mopup man in the pen over KK is just puzzling. Both of these strategies are clearly inferior.

Do they make an overwhelming difference? No but on a team that is really struggling it certainly doesn't help things.

Wow! Didn't see this coming.

jack: nice call, it makes sense, altho neep and othesr are right - herndon's mandatory inclusoin on the roster is becoming a pain in the ass.

Which is funny as KK was good out of the pen last year when they used him that way. Odd move to say the least.

It really feels as if Rube is assuming a blowout in the next couple nights...if not tonight and really wants a long-man just in case.

Speaking of Herndon, where are our fearless reporters on the beat asking Amaro, "Hey, did you try to work out a deal with the Angels for Herndon so you could send him down to AAA?"

IF the answer to that is no, then that's borderline bizarre.

But I don't know that that question has even been asked.

Figueroa and especially KK are both more ideally suited to the longmen out of the pen who pitch mop-up than Herndon and I would much rather see KK in a situational matchup vs. right-handed bat out of the pen than Herndon.

People were bringing up Gillick the other day. One of his strengths during his tenure here was tinkering with the roster to improve it over the course of a season generally.

You haven't seen that this season from Amaro. In fact, you have seen some roster moves especially of late that are down right puzzling and actually weaken the team.

"Over/under on the # of innings Carp pitches tonight after Jamie is blown out in the 2nd?"

Doesn't Moyer often do well in situations you think he'll fail in, and vice versa? I mean, he pitched great against the Yanks but was crap against the Cubs.

You just never know with that guy.

Strange move in a strange season. If they needed long relief, why not Figgy - given that he's performed pretty well in that role already this season. Seems highly unlikely, but might this have something to do with an upcoming trade.

It also seems strange that they're demoting KK. Although I've been a serious doubter, he has pretty much convinced me that he actually is a bottom of the rotation major league pitcher. The game he pitched against the Yankees convinced me of that. Not that demoting him will hurt the team, mind you. It seems doubtful that Carp would be any worse than KK. But it is a strange move.

Strange season.

BAP, I'm with you that I'd be surprised if the Phils were this willing to accommodate a Happ return, considering his recent minor league performance.

However, I guess I'm a bit lost as to how this particular move would be a precursor to some sort of trade? What advantages in a trade scenario are gained by this move?

Happ is scheduled to pitch tonight for the Lehigh. If Happ doesn’t start or only throws a couple of innings then Carpenter is only a temporary move. If Happ throws 90 to 100 pitches tonight then Carpenter or someone else will have to start at least once before Happ can come to the majors and start. The Phillies next day off isn’t until 8/2. I can’t see the Phillies starting Happ on short rest with all of the arm troubles he has had this year.

"It seems doubtful that Carp would be any worse than KK"

couldn't agree less. Carp doing worse than KK is almost a guarantee in my eyes.

WP: The same advantage that it would give you if they planned to call up Happ: an extra arm in the bullpen for a few days, & someone who can pitch multiple innings. Figueroa is a better option than Carpenter, but he hasn't cleared waivers yet &, if he does, it won't happen for another 5 days.

Prediction: Happ pitches 4 innings tonight and starts against Colorado on Saturday.

****If they needed long relief, why not Figgy - given that he's performed pretty well in that role already this season. Seems highly unlikely, but might this have something to do with an upcoming trade.****

I believe Figgy is still in Waiver Wonderland...and is thus unavailable.

sneed: Happ's line in pretty much every rehab start has gone something like this: 5 IP, 3 runs allowed, 4 walks. I really like Happ but he hasn't shown anything in his rehab starts to warrant a belief that he could improve the Phillies' rotation. If the Phillies demoted KK as a prelude to recalling Happ, you can color me puzzled.

This transaction is not about long relief really, it's about finding a player who can eat a few innings over the next few days should we need a long man, as well as a player who can be moved back down with ease.

The Phils ought to keep Figgy up anyway, he's pitched well for us.

BAP: Also 7K in each of those last two starts.

Ruben was quoted as saying his velocity picked up as the game went on and they were pleased with how he was throwing, FWIW. I'm not sitting here telling you Happ is going to save their season; rather, I'm pointing out that Happ could have a short start tonight, as if he were throwing a bullpen, and then start over the weekend, if that's what the Phillies are doing here.

The Phils are grasping for straws here, that's no debate. I'll use another cliche and suggest we are splitting hairs here, even by our standards, in this discussion. Whether Carpenter or Happ provide a short term upgrade over Kendrick is meaningless at this point. Kendrick is not responsible for the position we're in, and Happ is not going to rescue us. I don't think we can read anymore into this, considering we shouldn't read anything into this.

"I'm no Kendrick lover, but he hasn't been treated very well by the Phillies. He's definitely better off somewhere else at this point."

What should the Phils have done? In what ways has border-line Major Leaguer KK been treated differently than any other borderline starting pitcher (with options, that is)? KK, as currently constituted, is a player you look to replace if you can. If you have some days off, he's the guy you skip.

Life can be a b**** at the bottom of the heap.

Prediction: Happ comes back and goes 10-0, 2.34 ERA over the final 2 months. Phillies catch the Braves on the final day of the season and we ride Halladay, Hamels, Happ to another WS Victory.

Triple H Baby!

I'm a little surprised at the move, though no one here has asked a question that occured to me when I first read about the move:

Was Kendirck sent down because of attitude problems?

Was there some type of conflict with Dubee behind the scenes that we haven't heard about. I know, from reports, that Dubee has had to ride him about working more quickly, among other things. Is this just an indication that Dubee's frustration has reached the boiling point?

I know, I know...pure speculation, but still...it's a strange move.

'Waiver Wonderland' - That a crappy amusement park in the Coal Regions somewhere?

Well, one thing is for certain, you don't make this move unless you already have a plan for the Saturday start. Now we just have to sit back and wait for the genius to show his cards.

Put me on the record for stating that I'll be shocked if it's Happ.

The Carpenter move definitely screams short term (with an option back), or else it would have been Figgy.

"Was there some type of conflict with Dubee behind the scenes that we haven't heard about. I know, from reports, that Dubee has had to ride him about working more quickly, among other things. Is this just an indication that Dubee's frustration has reached the boiling point?"

If this would even remotely be the case, Dubee should take a long hard look in the mirror and wonder what part of the problem was him and what part was KK.

@Heather: "If this would even remotely be the case, Dubee should take a long hard look in the mirror and wonder what part of the problem was him and what part was KK."

Do you know of something specific that would make you say this?

Not that self-reflection is always a bad thing, but honestly? Dubee is paid good money NOT to engage in self-doubt when disagreeing with rookies.

Blanton has arguably been the worst starter in the NL but he will stay in the rotation all year come hell or high water. Contract and a lack of alternatives even if he remains one of the 4-5 worst starters in the NL all year.

I see the Phils are hawking "buy one, get one" tickets for the D-backs series. Is the horrendous field performance about to reach the box office?

Should have said "Has the horrendous field performance already reached the box office?"

"Is the horrendous field performance about to reach the box office?"

It could hardly fail to, Hope.

Behold the awful price of sucking.

When will the streak of consecutive sell outs end?

There was just no way they were going to send Blanton down.
This move, at least on the surface, will have little to no impact on the team. Perhaps there will be another move to follow that will explain this mystery.

agreed mg. that's what i was going to say. they are not going to demote someone they just signed to a 24 million dollar contract

I wouldn't trust Amaro to manage a Burger King at this point. In the past year and a half, he's shown not to be just a boy among men, but an incompetent buffoon who makes the Randy Quaid character in Christmas Vacation seem sensible and intelligent.

As fond as I am of Uncle Cholly's personality, I think it's time for a manager instead of a hitting coach with a managers job, preferably someone who will go to the bullpen before the man on the mound puts the game out of reach.

This team is a mismanaged business that shows no sign of improving its position. No cash. No prospects. Not a contender.

Dynasty = Over

"When will the streak of consecutive sell outs end?"

Whenever the next home date is that all tickets are not sold at this time.

Alex: That would appear to be the July 28 game against the D-backs -- tix being offered, "buy 1 get one free". Empty seats should send a message . . . if there is someone who hasn't gotten it yet.

We had a dynasty?


I think we're being overly harsh on Rube. He deserves some criticism but its hard to predict major injuries to key guys like Utley, Rollins and Polanco all at the same time along with losing half the bullpen.

It's important for people to have a scapegoat. Let's face it, Rube is an easy target.

I've asked this before, but I never got an answer. Schweitzer is a mets fan, right? It's either that or he's 12. It can only be one or the other.

He says Amaro can't manage a burger king, and has proven it over the last year and a half. He then declares the dynasty "over."

Now, Schweitzer, I'm assuming by dynasty you mean two consecutive WS appearances with one victory. Exactly how did we get to the WS last season? Oh right, two brilliant trade deadline moves by this "buffoon" of a GM. There's NO way we get there without either of those moves.

This season, Amaro has made some questionable moves, yes. And these questionable moves have been brightly highlighted by a rash of injuries and overall unacceptable performances. I really fail to understand your reactions the past few weeks.

Amaro is not the problem, and neither is Charlie. I think Heather said it before, but I'll put in my two cents anyway. Everybody on this blog and in this city thought this was a WS team coming into the season. The problem is they are underperforming. It's really as simple as that. Not one player other than Howard and Halladay is performing to the level expected entering spring training. Hamels is just about there. The reason isn't bad contracts or bad managing. Sure bad contracts could somewhat hamstring the future, but I don't think they have anything to do with this year.

Its siesta time. Wake me up in sixty years when we play the Yankees again in a WS.

the diamondbacks are always a terrible draw... they seem to have these buy one get ones every year for them and the rockies... Ladies and Gentleman the NL WEST!

Quincy - good post.

Old Phan - you're right. Everyone wants to find a scapegoat (i.e. one person to blame) instead of blaming the entire team for not playing to their potential.

In the past (like most of the 1990s) I've watched lousy baseball from the Phillies and haven't felt nearly as depressed about a team as I have this year, and that's because I KNOW they can do better.

Being a fan of the 2010 Phillies is like being a parent of a child with a 210 IQ who brings home straight C's on his report card.

"It's important for people to have a scapegoat. Let's face it, Rube is an easy target."

Amaro is paid to be accountable and have the finger pointed at him. Everything that happens and fails to happen on that team is not his fault, but he is still accountable for it.

Whether that's fair or unfair, that's his job and that's the way it is.

I love that people think Ruben should've had some kind of foresight about the constant rotation of injuries this season.

If you guys are so good at predicting the future what the hell are you doing posting on the Internet? I'd be cleaning up in Vegas and living in a mansion high on a hill somewhere

"Being a fan of the 2010 Phillies is like being a parent of a child with a 210 IQ who brings home straight C's on his report card"

DING DING DING!!! We have a winner, folks! I couldn't have put it better myself.

I'm so negative on this team because they could do so much better.

As a parent, I'm satisfied with a C if the C represents 100% effort. As a parent, I'm extremely dissatisfied with a C if it represents 50% effort, and I'll make sure my kid knows it.

Testing. I've tried to post 3 times & they've all been blocked. Am I here or have I been banned like MVPTommy?

Hmm . . . I was trying to post a sampling of posts from the July 20, 2008 game thread. For some reason, the post never seems to get through the filter, even though I used asterisks to delete all the bad words. Not sure why it's not working. But the game thread from that day makes for a pretty amusing read.

It is ridiculous to state that the Phillies would not have made it to the World Series last season without Lee and Martinez.

Their presence certainly gave the Phillies a shot against the Yankees, and the Lee trade was definitely Amaro's high point - mainly because he gave up three lesser prospects for 1.5 seasons of an ace. He quickly undid this by giving up three top prospects with high trade value for a pitcher that is only marginally better than Lee, then followed this up by trading Lee for three highly questionable, lesser prospects.

Had Amaro not had his "trailer park lottery winner" winter, the Phillies would have had an ace AND tradable prospects that could have helped the Phillies overcome injuries via trade or helped us to make a key acquisition at the deadline.

Amaro made a single good move and has a long list of horribly short sighted and slapass stupid moves. The 2010 Phillies could only be contenders if nothing whatsoever went wrong. Amaro eliminated any flexibility that this team had under Gillick.

So yes, Amaro is most certainly the problem.

Maybe my post was too long or something. I tried breaking it into 2 posts but it still didn't work. Let's try breaking it into 3.

For both amusement &, perhaps, a dose of perspective, I went back and looked through the game thread from this date in 2008. On that day, we dropped a 3-2 extra inning game to the Marlins, to fall into a tie for first place. Here's a sampling of some of the BL commentaries, along with my parenthetical commentaries of today:

"Statistically insignificant, but nonetheless, nauseating stat of the day:
Phillies are hitting .237 (27 for 114) since the All Star Break."

Posted by BAP (Hey, I can use that same post in tonight's game thread!)

"this is a mediocre team...they deserve to lose this game"

Posted by Anon (I guess they did deserve to lose, since they lost)

"Hah. C*rist almighty.
Phillies are just god d*mned terrible."

Posted by Knight (Worst team ever to be WFC, in fact)

"It's a good thing Charlie saved Lidge for the ... Um ... Why did the Phils best RP not appear in this game?"

Posted by Sophist (This post had me confused at first, but then I remembered this was back when Brad Lidge was still good)

Kutztown, great analogy.

The frustrating thing for us as fans is that the consistent effort just doesn't seem to be there.

Even Charlie had a meeting earlier this season about "complacency".

As for Jayson Werth, I wonder if he knows he stands a much better job of getting a big contract if he plays for a winner?

Actually, he probably does, and one has to wonder if maybe the pressure is getting to him a bit.

I really think that if the Phillies were 6 games up this season because guys were performing to their capabilities that people would not be on here saying Rube is a terrible GM and declare this past off season as a "trailer park lottery winner."

People need to learn that reactionary posting does not constitute valid complaints.

Will Schweitzer gets the overeaction / oversimplification of the day award.

Well, for some reason I can't get the rest to post. Too bad. Anyway, it's pretty funny. I sure hope all these posts don't show up later, because they're really long & I tried to post like a half dozen times.

I'll be in Phoenix for the Dback series. Could we get the games switched,Dbacks don't worry about sellouts.
What if Jamie doesn't have a friendly ump and gets bombed,what happens to him. My guess is nothing.One of UC's buddies.

"What if Jamie doesn't have a friendly ump and gets bombed,what happens to him. My guess is nothing.One of UC's buddies."

Everyone will tell you I'm not a UC fan, but what could UC do to Moyer besides maybe put him in the bullpen as a long man?

I don't think you could make Moyer accept an assignment to the minor leagues. (Besides, WTF would he "learn" from being in AAA?)

If you ever got that down on Moyer, really the only thing you could do would be release him.

@heather -- Are you saying the Phillies problems has been a lack of EFFORT??? And not an unfortunate slump? I have a hard time believing you could ever be positive about this team, as you seemed to start posting as soon as we went into this slump... but i guess that's sample size.
on the other hand, as @bap reminded us... he's been consistently negative for 4 seasons. His Negativity per Blog Post (NBP) is something like .689 during that sretch. Although, when you factor in Park Negativity Factors, his NBP+ is a 109, making him overall only a little more negative than the average fan.

awh: Why would playing for a winner affect Werth's contract so much? You don't really think that teams determine contracts for player based on who's been on a winning team before, do you?

First off, obviously Werth has played for winning teams, virtually every season of his career. Secondly, if Hanley Ramirez hit the FA market, I'm pretty sure his contract would be just fine. Mark Tiexiera? He appeared in the playoffs once, and that was with the Angels to whom he was traded at the deadline. He seemed to do ok as a free agent. Same with AJ Burnett. Raul Ibanez had played for a team that hadn't made the playoffs in 8 years--that didn't seem to bother Amaro.

I'm pretty sure that playing on a winning team has very little, if any, effect on how much a player receives in free agency.

TTI... exactly my point. It's some peoples' agendas to blame Rube. Truth is, if this team performed how we all expected, they'd win 95-100 games, and would take the division. Nothing Rube has done should have changed this in my opinion. It's been the players.

People can talk about his bad contracts and bad signings, but to me, they have nothing to do with the expectations placed on this team by EVERYONE this offseason.

And Schweitzer, you laud Rube for trading "three lesser prospects" for 1.5 seasons of an ace. He traded four, and they weren't considered "lesser" in the Phils organization. Then you dismiss him for trading three "top" prospects for a "marginally better ace." Are you a lawyer? First of all, whose talent evaluations are these assumtions based off of? Yours? And why did you make the point to state that it was 1.5 years of Lee, but conveniently forget to include that Rube got FOUR years of a better pitcher from the subsequent deal?

I guess at this point I'm wasting time defending anything. As far as I can tell, there hasn't been another poster on here taking you seriously. I suppose I should do the same. But man, can you be aggravating.

KK goes down because he has options. Figgy is off the 40-man roster so he won't be coming up. Carp is a placeholder for Happ or for someone coming in via trade. If RA sees this as a straight replacement for KK, then he really is clueless, but that's extremely doubtful. Their handling of Carp in the past suggests they do not view him as a future rotation guy. He's strictly a guy who fills in.

For contractural (and option) reasons, KK is the logical guy to go to make way for Happ or another starter via trade even though he has pitched better than Blanton or Moyer. Their contracts dictate they will remain on the roster no matter what. As for Herndon, someone in the FO clearly loves him. His stuff is nice but I'd like to think he'll develop command someday and so far I dont't.

Amazing Heather you figured out what to do with Jamie.Love the guy,but when you're done...you're done.

I can't tell if Will Schweitzer is a jokester or the biggest moron in the history of the Internet. I'm betting jokester.

Jack, hypothetically, if Jason Werth finishes this season as he's started it, and the benchmark GMs use to offer him a contract is based on his last 2-1/2 seasons, in which scenario does he get better contract offers:

1) played for the last place Pirates or the Royals, or

2) played for the Phils or Yanks?

IMHO, winning has some psychological effect on contracts that are offered.


Let me turn it around for you:

Do you think EVERY contract that a player has been offered and signed is due totally to GMs acting rationally?

Like Raul Ibanez's days as an elite hitter, I'm afraid my days as Beerleaguer's most hyperbolic pessimist are finished.

Just got emailed this joke from a friend.

For a little perspective, and because I thought it was funny:

___________________________________________________________________

I met a fairy.

"I want to live forever," I said.

"Sorry," said the fairy, but I am not allowed to grant that type of wish.

"Fine," I said, "then I want to die when the Cubs wins the World Series."

"You crafty bastard!" said the fairy.


bap - Ibanez were never an 'elite' hitter but any stretch but he was productive and ended up at the end of the year with decent stats.

I would be surprised at this point if he finishes the year at say .255/.340/.405 which isn't terrible but certainly his worst season since becoming a full-time MLB.

"I love that people think Ruben should've had some kind of foresight about the constant rotation of injuries this season."

Because you cannot predict injuries, a GM guards against the failure of his basic assumptions--in this case, apparently, that the offense will perform as it has in the recent past, with five core players totalling 750 GP, etc.--by improving (within parameters set by ownership) the pitching and bench. And this has to be done relative to your competitors.

I'd grade him on that. However, it's possible that this worst-case scenario could not be guarded against, that is, having your 1-2-3 hitters miss so many games and underperform when they do play.

Frankly, the moves that Amaro made this offseason generally did improve the team. The only real busts were Baez and Castro.

I am more curious to see what he does over the next 2+ weeks. If he stands pat, then I will be disappointed because this is the path that will likely ensure this team is home in Oct. and not slightly better positioned for next year.

clout, good luck with figuring out Schweitzer. I've never bothered. Lost cause.

When reading some of the posts on this board, one has to remember Hanlon's razor:

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

from july 26th thru august 20th, 1961, the phillies lost 23 straight games.for a 10 year old fan, any fan, that was true suffering..for all those not born before 1961, just a bit of historical perspective..

Least Werth and Chase are still having fun. Hearing that they were out until 4 am playing poker last night makes me think a win streak is about to start now.

MG, Castro was not a bust, he simply played as one would expect a career .230 hitter to play - who is 38 years old. Castro even had one of his patented hot streaks in April when he first replaced JRoll, hitting over .300 for about 40 PA (he has had a history of short spurts like that - I posted it back then).

Did you really have higher expectations than that?

Baez, OTOH, I must agree on...TOTAL BUST.

awh: I agree. Playing for a winning team certainly increases a player's exposure which, no doubt, has an effect on his perceived value. Plus, if the player has performed well in the post-season (as Werth has), it creates the impression that he's a "winning" or "big-game ballplayer, which also enhances his value. On Beerleaguer, we tend to write off post-season success as a small sample size artifact. But many GMs and scouts don't share this view. That's why middling playerss like David Bell & Jeff Suppan got huge, multi-year deals. They were both coming off huge post-season performances the previous year.

Re free agency from winning teams:

The starting figures for negotiations are affected by what teams imagine other teams have offered and will offer, and the starting position in negotiations does affect the outcome. If the player plays for a winner, teams are likely to expect a higher bid from the team where the player has been playing. Therefore, it seems likely to me that a free agent who's been playing for a winner will get better offers than one that's been playing for a loser.

It's a psychological factor, but a real one, and I'll bet a fair amount of money that it does have a statistically measurable effect.

johnny: Two words: John Buzhardt.

bap: well said. Werth's true value is probably Jason Bay's deal, but his performance in the past two World Series will help him land a couple million extra in his new deal.

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EST. 2005

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