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Thursday, June 17, 2010

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Serious question: If Moyer finishes the year with an ERA around 4.50-4.80, ERA+ in the 90-95 range (currently at 88), does and should Rube try to give him a 1 year deal for 2011?

I say yes...as long as its a ONE YEAR deal...not a 2 or 3 year deal.

There was a pitch to Swisher that looked unquestionably outside on the CF offset camera, then YES showed the behind the plate angle and it was right down the middle.

Thinking they should do a split screen with both those angles right near the beginning of the game, showing where inside and outside pitches are on their CF angle, so we can really tell what the umpire is giving the pitcher.

****There was a pitch to Swisher that looked unquestionably outside on the CF offset camera, then YES showed the behind the plate angle and it was right down the middle. ****

Yet ironically, the YES announcers continued to rip the Ump for calling it a strike...even after watching the replay that showed it caught the corner. Objectivity be damned!

Moyer is averaging over 6 IP a start so far this year...not too shabby for an Octegenarian.

If you take out his 1 start hiccup, Moyer is 6-4 with a 3.16 ERA in his last 10 starts.

With the hiccup in Boston, he is 6-5 with a 4.28 ERA (still impressive).

Washed Up!

I've been awake since 4:30 AM and this game still feels like it never happened. A 16-win Jamie -- is that possible? -- makes his contract; especially the 2nd year, the bleepin' bargain of the decade. Funny thing about the post game, though -- Charlie Manual did not look happy. In fact, to these tired eyes, he looked scared speaking to the media. Odd and very un-Charlie-like. What the bleep did RAJ say, anyway?

Great article by Conlin yesterday on Jimmy Rollins. Even through that ancient sage's eyes, Rollin's energy and enthusiasm leapt from the page. He's feelin’ real good (how's that for a Chollie-ism?) and appears completely optimistic about a 100% recovery. That, the current pitching, and a consistent "Oppo Boppo" swing by Ryan Howard might just run down the stinking Atlanta Braves.

Right now, Jamie is 100% paying for his contract. Maybe not by Sabrmetric standards (i.e. Fangraphs WAR) but he's done what they've asked of him. Its not really a bad thing that he met his incentives in 09...it shows that he's still a very reliable guy to have around.

BTW, he's on pace for just over 200 IP this year...at Age 47. How many 27 year olds can claim that?

Re: another year for Moyer

I wouldn't be against it the way he is pitching right now, but lets look into that at the end of the year. Moyer is getting old, and thats not in baseball terms, but in actual life terms. I enjoy watchin Young Jamie make kids look like fools, but if they were to give him another year, I would hope they would make it a lower base salary with some incentives that are reasonable for the old man.

Moyer is fun to watch. I never have high expectations but, I'm infrequently disappointed. Michael Kay (?) claimed he had a conversation with Moyer before the game in which he told Kay that he definitely will pitch next season.

Random takeaways - Rapuano's strike zone meandered but, he seemed to reward good control. Hit hte mitt, get a strike. Burnett couldn't find the mitt in his 200 pitches in the first 4 innings. The homers were nice - I thought ten would be the most any Phillie hit this year. Utley's hits lately have been gifts and flukes and his outs have included some BBs. Nice job by Burnett covering first on Utley's hit last night. Francisco has been flashing some serious warning track power. Dobbs had an RBI hit to start teh scoring (not a misprint). I hope Castro never mans shortstop again. I'm expecting they'll need to dent the Yankee bullpen if htey hope to win tonight.

Hopefully UC (and Rube) see that Castro is washed up. He had a little spurt of offense (mostly seeing eye singles) when he first took over for Jimmy but since then he's batting around .150 with no defense. Valdez is at least giving us decent defense and hitting above the Mendoza Line.

Did Jamie benefit from a nice strikezone?

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/zoneplot.php-pitchSel=all&game=gid_2010_06_16_phimlb_nyamlb_1&sp_type=1&s_type=7.gif

Yeah, probably. But you have to remember that most Umps will reward good control by giving the corners...that hasn't changed in 100 years.

I feel like Brad Lidge's reaction after recording the final out last night was a good sign. He seemd to mouth something like F**k something. Whether that was directed at the ump for a questionable non call earlier in the inning or at himself for taking so long to get the job done, I think it is a complete turnaround from the deer in the headlights look he had last season. Last year, he would have been relieved to get out of that inning, this time it seemed he was mad that it took him so long. Overanalyzing, maybe... But I like what I saw, nonetheless.

Valdez's offensive contributions primarily consist of bunts, infield singles and Texas leaguers but, at least he puts the ball in play. If he can avoid the double plays, that's a bonus. He fields the position capably and forces the issue on the basepaths. I'll take that over Castro and his no-hit, short-armed fielding and club-footed baserunning as Rollins' sub and on the bench when he returns.

Did anybody here already mention the hilarious design of bats and various other locker items - fruit, chewing tobacco, glove - in front of Chase's locker yesterday afternoon? I like to see that someone in that clubhouse - esp. Chase, who's struggling so - has a sense of humor in spite of the slump!

I would like to see a picture of that...

NEPP - Agreed to a point but there clearly is a difference between a guy like Emmel (who has a reputation for calling one of the tighest strike zones in the league) vs. Rapuono (generally's a pitcher's ump by giving them the outside corner if they are close & even the occasional strike above the belt).

I am willing to bet that STAT, Inc. or other firms (even some teams) closely keep track pretty closely of what umpires call what types of pitches strikes & their general location. There is a clear difference that we have seen in at least 3-4 games with Moyer this year where the ump behind the plate has had a notable impact in the game.

Few thoughts:

- Still mystified that Moyer only used 2 changeups last night. It was his lowest total for a start this year. For a guy who generally throws 20-25% changeups, that was a notable difference.

- Glad to see the Phils running early last night on an erratic Burnett and weak-armed Posada. Hopefully the Phils will take more opportunities when they present themselves against erratic pitchers and/or weak-armed catchers.

I saw the last few innings and thought Moyer was getting squeezed and pitched well despite of it. I thought Lidge got squeezed as well. Seems A-rod has B-Lidge's number.

Its nice to see some pop from the lineup, although a surer sign would be if they managed a late inning run after the early burst.

Ultimately I'd just like the Phils to get back to the point where the games seem winable let alone i expect them to win.

What was Larry Bowa on when he gushed about Castro and his "softest hands in baseball"? Must have been massaging Larry with those hands because Castro's defense has been even worse than his nonexistent offense.

I guess i should have went back into the game thread first, but did anyone see Moyer after the Posada HR? He froze him on the inside corner on a 1-2 count and didnt get the call. After the HR the camera went to Jamie and he was really giving it to the Ump, swore i saw some f bombs get dropped. Then when the inning ended, he walked towards the dugout while still riding the ump pretty hard. Hah, so Jamie earned his strike sonze last nite.

I'll chalk that win up to some "veteran presence" and "scrappy guile"

"Re: another year for Moyer

I wouldn't be against it the way he is pitching right now, but lets look into that at the end of the year. Moyer is getting old, and that's not in baseball terms, but in actual life terms. "

Your opinion will change when you get to 47. 47 may have been old in 1985, but it ain't now. Ask any 50 year old who takes better care of himself, and feels a lot better than he did when he was 25.

Year-to-year contracts work for Wakefield, so why not Jamie?

cipper, there's video of it with quick interview of Dobbs and Lidge about it here:
http://www.csnphilly.com/pages/phillies

Just scroll through to find it.

PHinBK - He was a bit on the inside plate but he generally got the outside plate/belt strike pretty much all night long it seemd.

I was happy to see Moyer and Lidge perform well. I was even happier to see the game on ESPN in Houston. My chances to see the Phightin's are few and far between.

As for Bruce Ruffin's observation that Charlie Manual did not look happy, Rube probably told Foghorn that third place ain't cutting it and that retirement might be in the offing; or else Rube told Cholly that we're signing Pedro again this year and that Pedro will be in the five man rotation.

Im still a little concerned they didnt hit past the 4th inning...thank god it was enough

In re: Another year for Moyer;

Posts on this are reminiscent of similar posts clamoring for the return to Philly of PtB, prior to his ultimate release by the Rays. I’ll take the same stance on Jamie as I did on PtB – revisit it after the season, taking into account the needs of the team.

I have nothing against Pat and am happy for him that he has had success once joining the SFG. However, what he has done with SF (small sample size) has not convinced me he will be better than his career .243/.321/.417.

Opps. My bad. PtB is .254/.362/.474

Could Jamie Moyer actually make a push for 300 wins and, potentially, the Hall of Fame?

http://longdistancephilliesfan.blogspot.com/2010/06/jamie-moyer-hall-of-famer.html

The replay I referred to above on YES wasn't one on the corner...it was a strike 2 pitch that Swisher started to first on.

Love the picture of Chase's Locker.

And when I'm 47, I PRAY I'm in as good of shape as Jamie Moyer.

Should the Phils consider skipping Jamie's next turn in the rotation? He doesn't always do so well after going deep into the previous game.

Clip, I hope you are too, and in this modern age I would say it's likely you will. I'm 50 now and I feel better now than when I was a 25 year old "athlete". Things are a lot different now.

Speaking of this, today is my beautiful wife's 50th. As she does every day, she rolled her BMW 1150 out of the garage, put on her helmet and zoomed of on a 30 mile commute into Austin to go to work. I wanted her to take the day off, but she loves what she does and doesn't like to miss work for something as trivial as a random date on the calendar.

If you don't feel old, You ain't...

BP Playoff odds update:

After last night's win, up 3.75794% to 19.66867%. Even though the two teams ahead of us also won. I guess the SD loss was big for us.

Braves' percentage went up 6.16138%.

Mets up only .58981.

2010 lidge is a completely different pitcher than 2009 lidge. his slider is much tighter and seemingly more controllable. last year is had much more vertical movement, yet was near impossible for him to throw for a strike. while 2010 lidge's fastball comes in between 90-93 mph (2009 was 94-96 mph) he appears to be locating it better. and i haven't seen a 3rd pitch yet, which i'm ok with. i like 2010 lidge way better so far. anyone have any pitchFX data to support this?

I agree with LweSlwrGeorge regarding Moyer: Wait and see. He's been very impressive, but the end of this contract may present itself as a time to move on.

After Burnett was pulled last night, the Yankee crowd booed him loudly and lustily. Granted Burnett just blew an easy out because he didn't cover first base, but the booing seemed unnecessarily vicious. And they say Phillie fans are tough.

As frustrated as I am with the Phils this year, I don't think I could ever boo them.

I love Moyer, but I don't think he even sniffs the Hall of Fame UNLESS he gets 300 wins, and even then, I think it might not be a shoo-in. Jamie has unique accomplishments, but not really flashy numbers. I think a lot of Hall of Fame voters are not going to want to vote him in because of his relatively "bad" ERA, lack of strikeouts, lack of overall dominance. 300 wins might make them vote for him, but they're not going to want to.

Just my $.02.

Moyer has no shot at the HOF and rightly so. He has had a very interesting career but incredible lengvity shouldn't equate to HOF admission.

There is no way Moyer wins close to another 35 wins either to get to 300 wins. Maybe wins another 5-6 games this year for a total of 12-13 wins. Maybe a hunch too but I have a feeling that Moyer will finally retire after this season too.

Pretend you didn't know how old Jamie was, and you watched him pitch last night, then after the game he announces his retirement. You would think he was nuts.

If Moyer somehow hangs around long enough to win 300, how would he be denied entry into the hall of fame? how would he not deserve it? Longevity is, in fact, a major contributing factor in many hall of famers' elections. Stated in the converse, if you don't have longevity (and your name isn't Sandy Koufax), you don't get in.

The amazing thing about Moyer's pitching ability is that he can keep his legs and mid section as strong and balanced to work with his amazing arm. He'll pitch as long as his groin and legs allows him to be as accurate. He's a fox with machinist blood and one amazing arm. Amazing.

If he somehow manages to stick around and earn 300 wins, it would be criminal if he didn't get in the HOF.

Could he out live-pitch all the negative votes?

Moyer's tied for 8th in the NL in wins.

11th in WHIP.

29th in IP.

41st in ERA.

Don't think his numbers are screaming 'retire'.

****while 2010 lidge's fastball comes in between 90-93 mph (2009 was 94-96 mph) he appears to be locating it better. and i haven't seen a 3rd pitch yet, which i'm ok with. i like 2010 lidge way better so far. anyone have any pitchFX data to support this?
****

FB:

2009: 93.6 mph (50.3%)
2010: 92.7 mph (38.4%)

So basically, he's lost about 1 mph on his fastball and he's throwing far more sliders than before.

He's only ever really been a 2 pitch guy so I don't see that as an issue.


I could see Moyer as a Veteran's Committee guy in 30 years.

The question would come down to: If the Phillies aren't interested in re-signing him, what teams would be, and does he want to relocate? My hunch is it is either Philly, Seattle or retire.

I think if he stays effective, Rube will resign him to a reasonable deal.

Nick Swisher needs to shutup. I saw a couple Lidge strikes called balls. And I saw a pitch Moyer threw for a ball called a strike when Gaudin threw the same pitch in the same spot.

I dont know why, But I do not like Nick Swisher. One reason could be he is on the Yankees. The other could be his face. I want to punch it.

If the Phillies don't bring Moyer back he is going to have to find a pretty good team to pitch for to have a chance at 300 even if he plays two more years. Otherwise he is looking at 3 years+ easily.

phanatic's brother - I can't stop laughing at that post.

I hate Swisher too. I never realized it was his face until today.

I hate almost every member of the Yankees. They all seem like d-bags, except maybe Sabathia ... he seems like he's a cool guy.

I'm with whoever said it's too early to talk about a next season for Moyer. He's at the age (or so I'm told) where you never pass up a bathroom or waste a hard-on.

Lidge has had better location with the fastball but, last night, he seemed very reluctant to throw it. He had a 4 run lead and he was throwing a slider (not a terribly good one) with a full count and two outs. He seems to throw two variations of the slider. One is a get-me-over pitch that drops into the strike zone that he used to use only early in the count. He got a generous high strike on the second out on that pitch and I think even he was surprised it was called that way. The other is the patented 58 footer that he throws for strikeouts. I only recall one good example of the latter last night and that was on his last pitch. He threw a ton of hte former. The way I see it, he's really throwing 3 pitches and he's relying most heavily on his 3d best pitch.

"He's at the age (or so I'm told) where you never pass up a bathroom or waste a hard-on. "

Is there any age where that doesn't apply?

Jamie Moyer's '87 Topps Rookie Card

http://www.homeruncards.com/imagesrc/moyertp.jpg

Man has aged pretty damn well.

****He seems to throw two variations of the slider.****

Pretty much dead on.

I agree on that high strike too...while its "technically" a strike per the rulebook, its very rare to see it called that high. I was very happy to get that borderline call against the great Derek Jeter.

How can you not root for Jamie Moyer? He may not be my favorite player of all time, but he has certainly earned every ounce of my respect. The guy is amazing.

A one year deal for '11? Yes.

The only problem with Jamie Moyer... is when he's not effective the rails come off pretty quickly and the game gets out of hand like the Red Sox game. A quicker hook would keep the Phillies in games. But as we've seen those games have been few and far between this year. Its magnificent watching this guy. This year especially.

Coming back from a MAJOR surgery, one filled with complications, to do what he's doing is simply amazing.

If Moyer is not elected into the HOF by normal means (and I'm not suggesting he should), if there's not a special wing dedicated to GREAT BASEBALL MEN like Jamie Moyer, you might as well shut down the museum.

If you are going to take your kid to Cooperstown and tell them stories about the past. Jamie Moyer's name MUST be in the conversation. I hope to one day say, Moyer's Game 5 uniform of the 2010 World Series after beating the Yankees.

RE: Moyer in HoF

CONS: Most Hof members were forces to be reckoned with at one point in their careers. While he had a handful of season where he was one of the better pitchers in the league, I don't think anyone would think of him as "dominant". His career ERA is 1.22 points higher than the average HoF starter and .38 above the highest. (Ruffing) And he has a low win percentage. Also, the question "If you let him in, who else should you let in?". That list may be long.

PROS: He is only 5 wins below the average for HoF starters. He's 280+ Ks above average for HoF starters. Though his Win Pct is low, it would not be the worst. (Ryan) Aside from the ERA, he would not be a statistical outlier.

I had thought about a year or two ago that he would have to win in the high teens last year and this year to have a chance. That would have got him very close to 300 and a better Win Pct. Didn't happen. So, now he needs to make it to 300 and do it without wrecking his ERA and Win Pct. Good luck, Jamie!

Maybe some of the umps give Moyer a bigger zone because the pitches are so slow, saying to the Jeters of the world that you can't expect to be lucky enough to face such slop AND get the modern teensy weensy strike zone.

.

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