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Tuesday, June 15, 2010

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I don't remember the discussion last year, but Blanton had a near identical start (the DL and delayed start to the year aside).

First 8 starts

2009: 44.1 IP, 35 R 1.68 WHIP, 37 K
2010: 47 IP, 40 R, 1.59 WHIP, 26 K

Biggest difference between the starts seems to be K rate and BB rate. The WHIP from 09 involved more walks (he has just 11 so far this year). Hopefully he turns it around. In his final 23 starts of 09, his ERA was 3.16.

Where to start with this team right now? I'm not ready to say that this just isn't their year, but I'm getting close. At the time I was somewhat understanding about the Lee deal,although I wasn't sold on what they got back, but that deal is looking worse and worse every day. It's looking like, not only with Seattle get back a better package then they gave up, but Lee has a good chance to be helping a team that we will be playing and fighting with down the line. That being said, their pitching hasn't been bad. They have much too long a track record to just write the year off but they have played a ton of high pressure baseball over the last three years and that might be taking a toll right now. Hopefully they can right the ship and hang around until they can back to playing like we know they can play. They're only 3.5 out with a long way to go. A series win against the Yankees would be a great place to start.

How tall is Overbeck? If he's 6'2" or taller, he's the future of the Phils at the hot corner.

Overbeck is listed at 6'1" & 200 lbs on the R-Phils website.

He'll never make it.

Maybe the Phils can find locate the whereabouts of Manute Bol. If not, can they teach Jon Rauch to play 3rd?

I also saw Jiwan James is really starting to take off at Lakewood. Agewise is he still okay to be there?

Why is it that whenever I watch Amaro I find myself disbelieving every word that comes from his mouth?

Seriously, the man needs an image coach or something...he has the personal believability of an ambulance chaser.

Mitch, I know people here like to continue to discuss the Lee deal, but let's make this perfectly clear for everyone:

THE LEE DEAL HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE TEAM'S RECENT SLUMP.

So stop....just stop.

Here are the FACTS:

In the last 21 games, going back to the first Boston series, the Phillies have scored 53 runs:

That's 2.52 RPG.

2.52 RPG = Not getting it done.

Now, Phillies pitchers have given up 99 runs in that same stretch.

That's 4.71 RPG.

4.71 RPG = Not getting in done, also.
_____

The Phillies are 7 - 14 in that stretch.
_____

However, the runs allowed is skewed somewhat by the 2nd Boston series, where Phillies pitchers gave up 25 runs in 3 games.

If you take the 18 games before the series in Boston, Phils pitchers had given up 74 runs in 18 games.

That's 4.11 RPG.

4.11 RPG = Getting it done,

as it's below the league average of 4.43 RPG (caveat: 3 games played with DH).

The Phils record in those 18 games was 6-12, DESPITE the pitching being better than league average.

AAMOF, the Phils pitchers, during the 21 game skid, have given up 3 or fewer runs in ELEVEN, yes 11, of those games. Yet their record in those games is only 6 - 5.


So, posters on this site can whine about the Lee trade all they want. It's silly and pointless. Another pitcher would not make much difference - not when they're only scoring 2.52 RPG.

They're 7 - 14 in their last 21 games because they're not scoring.

Period.

Yankees suck...they tried stealing our mascot back in the day

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NY-AH030_SPRTS__DV_20100614171705.jpg

Oh, and Mitch, I apologize if you think I was singling you out.

The context of your post gives me the impression that you "get it".

You just happend to be the last guy to mention Lee.

James is the same age as Hewitt. 21. Just about right for A ball. Remember though that he lost 2 years due to injuries and bc the Phils tried him on the mound at first.

Oh, and in the last 21 games they have been shut out SIX, yes 6, times.

Phils pitchers gave up 24 runs in those games, or 4 RPG - again, below the league average. Also, they gave up 3 R or fewer in 3 of those games.

Still, they lost all 6 games. Why, boys and girls.........?

Because they didn't effin' score.

WTF does the Phils pitching have to do with that?

I'm beginning to think our GM is in a little over his head...

"WTF does the Phils pitching have to do with that?"

Apparently the Phils are trying to score with PITCHING. It's an underutilized part of the game that the Sabermetric community has largely overlooked.

He has made some great calls (Lee, Polanco, Halladay) but made some really bad calls (Lee, Gload, Schneider, Blanton, Ibanez's contract length, possibly Howards and of course...CLIFF LEE!!!)

I don't understand the hate RAJ gets on this board? I understand why people don't like the Lee trade, and I can understand the apprehension in extending Howard to the contract he received, but what is RAJ doing wrong?

Before the 2009 season, everyone was praising RAJ for locking up our young talent. Now people say "our GM is in a little over his head"? It doesn't make sense to me.

Be thankful we don't have Ed Wade or Omar Minayia

Utley batting 2nd and Polly batting 3rd tonight. Not the worst idea.

Rube's had his ups and downs so far, but I'm not ready to judge him just yet.

awh: Mitch didn't actually say anything about the Lee deal being responsible for the Phils recent troubles.

He seemed to be saying more that he just didn't like the deal overall, for some combination of the prospects struggling, Lee being great this year, and, as he mentioned, the possibility that Lee could end up on a team we're competing against. I don't see what's wrong with that opinion.

Do you like the idea of Halladay-Hamels-Blanton in a playoff series right now more than Halladay-Lee-Hamels? That would sure be an interesting opinion.

I'm not a huge Rube fan and have even given him a rather disparaging nickname on this site because of what Heather's post above references.

Hoever, I don't think Rube is in over his head.

But what can he do if Chase Utley isn't hitting at the same time Werth, Howard, Chooch, Castro, and Vic all decide to leave their bats in the dugout, JRoll and Happ are on the DL, and Madson decides to audition for the starring role in a remake of "Dumb and Dumber"?

He can't hit for those guys.

I was thankful when we had Gillick...Ruben just seems like he is trying to prove himself too much.

"He has made some great calls (Lee, Polanco, Halladay) but made some really bad calls (Lee, Gload, Schneider, Blanton, Ibanez's contract length, possibly Howards and of course...CLIFF LEE!!!)"

Polanco is arguably not a great call. The consensus at the time was, in a vacuum, Polanco was a good pickup. But many made the case that the years/money could have been less. Same thing with Ibanez, same thing with Moyer, same thing with Howard.

There seems to be a familiar theme emerging here. Seems like most of Rube's "bad calls" were not bad in the sense that he is a cruddy judge of talent. All his bad calls seem to be related to zeroing in on one player to the exclusion of all else, and throwing money and years at him until he signs, regardless of whether the player or the market indicates you should have paid a lot less. Its like he gets emotionally or personally attached to a player and MUST have him regardless of the price...its actually kinda bizarre when you think about it.

Jack, no way Blanton starts a game 3 the way he's pitching.

People on this board amaze me. How can anyone say the Blanton deal was a mistake. We are talking about a middle of the rotation guy in the prime of his career. I think anyone who tries to evaluate any of Rube's decisions is jumping the gun.

These are probably the same people who wanted the Phillies to cut Cole Hamels.

Jack: When I first read Mitch's complaint, my first reaction was exactly what AWH's was. I don't really see how the Lee deal is looking "worse and worse each day". Granted, BL is full of hyperbole, but at first glance, his statement could easily sound like if the Phils had Lee, they wouldn't have been slumping so badly.

"no way Blanton starts a game 3 the way he's pitching."

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Of course you don't want any pitcher with a 7+ ERA to be pitching in the big leagues, but is Joe Blanton a 7+ era pitcher??

Baseball is 162 games, people. Like or not, Roy Halladay might have a stretch where he stinks this year. It even happened to Golden Boy Cliff Lee last season.

Why are we even talking about the possible rotation for playoff games.
This team needs to think about winning some regular season games or we will be watchiing the Braves or Mets post-season.
Last year and 2008 are history.
We have no entitlement to the playoffs.

"People on this board amaze me. How can anyone say the Blanton deal was a mistake. We are talking about a middle of the rotation guy in the prime of his career. I think anyone who tries to evaluate any of Rube's decisions is jumping the gun"

If the consensus is that he overpaid for the player given the market conditions AT THE TIME, why is it jumping the gun? Even if the player in question turns out to be an all star, that still doesn't mean that you didn't overpay for his services given what you could have/should have paid.

If I pay $10 for a stock that is really only worth $5 at the time I paid for it, then at the time I overpaid by $5. If the stock price shoots up to $20 later, then I only make a $10 profit instead of a $15 one. Similarly, if the stock declines and is now worth $1, I have a $9 loss instead of a $4 loss.

Overpaying for players hurts you coming and going.

Blanton of last season is not overpaid. I would be happy if he finished this season as he did last season.

Is 3 years 24 million overpaying for Joe Blanton in the prime of his career? I'm not sure that it is.

Polanco looks like a good signing now, and if he's not an everyday player by year #3, you have what we wanted for the bench this year (but didn't get): a versatile IFer who can hit a bit, just not an everyday player. A little overpaid, but can be put to good use.

I give Rube a lot of credit (the Lee deal being an exception) for trying to keep a winning team together in an era where the paycheck is generally the sole motivation to where a guy chooses to play.

Fangraphs has Blanton worth about 10 million a year. As that is what he will make in 2011 and 2012, I would say they paid "Big Joe Blanton" what he is worth.

"We have no entitlement to the playoffs."

Of course not, but that doesn't mean the Phils won't get there and that the rotation doesn't have to be considered.

"Is 3 years 24 million overpaying for Joe Blanton in the prime of his career? I'm not sure that it is. "

More talking about the Ibanez deal, the Moyer deal, the Howard deal, and even the Polanco deal than the Blanton deal.

It's trend with Amaro, and while you may argue ONE of these deals (Polanco wasn't so bad, Blanton wasn't so bad, etc.) as a whole, they represent a disturbing trend by our GM.

I realize that some posters here are totally ignorant, but if you look at trades and FA signings, Amaro has been superior to Gillick by any rational measure.

Now, whether that holds true going forward is unknown. A total failure of Polanco, Blanton, Ibanez, Halladay et al could change the picture. But at this point in time, it's no contest.

"Polanco looks like a good signing now, and if he's not an everyday player by year #3, you have what we wanted for the bench this year (but didn't get): a versatile IFer who can hit a bit, just not an everyday player. A little overpaid, but can be put to good use"

The fact that Polanco is currently exceeding expectations does not let Amaro off the hook for the Polanco deal. You could have gotten him for less money. For a team that is complaining about its payroll limitations, that is a big deal. An extra $2 million saved on that deal is another bullpen arm, or another $2 mil to sign another FA, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I totally agree that Polanco has performed exceedingly well, but that still doesn't change the fact that you overpaid for him given market conditions last winter.

The internet. Where amazing happens.

Polanco isn't exceeding anything in my eyes. His stats may take a dip, or even rise a bit, but I'd bet this is what the brass expected from him.

"Polanco isn't exceeding anything in my eyes. His stats may take a dip, or even rise a bit, but I'd bet this is what the brass expected from him. "

You're still missing the point that they overpaid for him given the market conditions at the time.

Polanco could of been had for less money? Sure, I bet he could. But a team may have come in and signed him for what we eventually gave him.

While you say the extra 2 million saved would of been nice, if we lost him people would be calling the Phillies cheap for not ponying up the extra 2 million.

Same would of been said if they let Howard walk.

I'd would of paid an extra 4 million for Polanco if it meant Dobbs continues to ride the bench.

As I recall, the choices were between Beltre, Figgins, and Polanco. I think that turned out okay, and Polanco's money isn't going to break the bank. We'll see about the third year, but still, this deal shouldn't be a concern right now.

@Heather -- I don't think you have any clue on what it would have taken to get Polanco, especially since the Red Sox got involved at the last minute. An average of 6 MM per year for your starting third baseman is a very fair number. And certainly very fair based on Polanco's expected offensive and defensive production. We paid Feliz $5MM last year. We are paying Polanco 5.1MM this year.

Adrian Beltre got $10MM from Boston.

If you are questioning year 3 of the deal, fine. But he was not signing anywhere for less than what the Phillies offered him.

If you want to deal with things in vacuums fine, but that's not how baseball works.

Personally, I do find Ruben Amaro to be believable when he talks. I like listening to him. I liked Pat Gillick, too. I realize they are paid to spin, and I think they do a good job of doing so without sounding like they're trying too hard to sound positive or like they're making stuff up. He presents pretty even-keeled, which is what I expect of a GM, and he makes rational arguments for his decisions while allowing that anything can happen in the game. That's my opinion.

Just goes to show there are all kinds of opinions out there.

"@Heather -- I don't think you have any clue on what it would have taken to get Polanco, especially since the Red Sox got involved at the last minute. An average of 6 MM per year for your starting third baseman is a very fair number. And certainly very fair based on Polanco's expected offensive and defensive production. We paid Feliz $5MM last year. We are paying Polanco 5.1MM this year."

I guess I failed basic writing because somehow my point is not coming across. You can justify the Polanco deal if you want. But take Polanco, Howard, Ibanez, Moyer, Blanton AS A WHOLE and what you have is a GM with an unfortunate tendency to pay over fair market value for players.

Market value being money AND years given.

Heather: The problem with your thesis is that it is not proveable. You don't have the slightest idea whether those players would have settled for lesser contracts.

you may be tired of hearing about the Lee trade but the pitching staff appears, at this juncture, to be inadequate to compete in the post season. Moyer and Blanton getting shelled by Boston is not a good sign.

Considering Aumont is going backward, Gillies is hurt, and Ramirez is inconsistent at best, and considering Lee is killing it in Seattle, it appears at this juncture that Amaro failed to achieve his goal.

Additionally since the analysts believe the Phillies need another starter for October, and rumors are they may be seeking one, then how can you not lament the Lee trade now?

I don't care about the numbers this season, I personally don't have any confidence in anyone other than Halladay and (i guess) Hamels taking the mound come crunch time.

Anyone consider the effect that trading Lee had on the players? Jimmy came out vocally and said it was a bad move. I hear lots of people talk about the effect that Howard's big contract may or may not have had on the rest of the team (I for one don't buy that), but I rarely hear about the negative message that trading Lee sent. I do believe that could have had more of a negative impact than people give it credit. Obviously, that doesn't explain the slump...

I too think the Lee trade would dappen moral much more than a guy they all get along with, respect, came up and won with getting paid. People who thinkg howard getting an extension annoys Utley or Werth or whoever else is slumping is crazy.

PHinBK sez: "Moyer and Blanton getting shelled by Boston is not a good sign."

- - - - - - -
Blanton I'll give you, but I don't see any cause for concern right now about Moyer. Would someone please take a look at this: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1091&position=P&season=2010

and then explain to me why Pappy Moyer's recent stinker in Boston has so many people in an uproar? The recency effect comes to mind.

"and then explain to me why Pappy Moyer's recent stinker in Boston has so many people in an uproar"

Because the "anti-Moyers" are always looking for something to hang on Young Jamie.

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