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Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Comments

It's good to see some good news in the midst of all the Phillies negativity.

I can wait a little longer on Raul. It'd be nice to have Ibanez's hot streak coincide with Choochtober.

Joe Posnanski has an interesting post today on the Braves. The Braves have won every game in which they've scored at least 5 runs (31-0), and are 11-28 when they don't score at least 5 runs. NL teams, he says, win about 77% of their 5-run games. According to Posnanski, the Phils have scored at least 5 runs just as often as the Braves. The Phils are 26-5 in their 5-run games. They are 9-27 when they score less than 5 runs.

A fairly superficial analysis, to be sure, (for instance, the Braves RS/G is still a little less than a half run above the Phils despite the equal number of 5-run games) but interesting nonetheless.

Chris: The speculation is that the Phillies could've received Montero but that has not been confirmed by really anyone. Now if it ends up being true than yes it raises some questions about the trade. But I don't make final assumptions on speculation.

Also, guys need to stop thinking about the Lee trade in terms of winning right now. Yes I want the Phillies to win every year, but I also don't want them to mortgage the future so extensively that they have nothing to show for it down the road if they don't win. I really think some of you purposely ignore the fact that this team was missing the playoffs left and right in the 90's and there are plenty of teams that take steps backward in attempts to move forward.

Also, the Lee deal affects our pitching and pitching is not why this team was in the funk it was in until last week.

NEPP: "I'm not trying to make a rational argument."

For anyone who has ever read even one of your posts, that goes without saying.


Quoted of context by clout...shocking.

Charlie is on 610 and he just said that players need to stop being girls and he has no friends on other teams. I love it.

TTI: Like I said in my post, IF the rumors turn out to be true, then there's no way to justify the trade Rube made. If the M's turn around and deal Lee for more value than the Phils did, with only 1/2 of the season under contract, that would be appalling and would show that Rube bungled the trade badly.

I understand the logic behind the trade and even agreed with it to a certain extent, but not if it turns out that Rube turned down better offers/opportunities. That completely undermines the "building for the future" argument.

now i can't sort out if Charlie is calling Raul a "warior" or a "worrier".

Chris, I am on board with that criticism more or less. The one question I have is whether Lee's stock has risen in the last few months such that, despite the half season less of performance, he should be more valuable in the trade market. Going hand in hand with this analysis is the fact that whoever receives Lee now has a better handle on his value to their win projection and playoff probabilities than the M's had initially. The M's are a .400 team. The teams bidding for Lee's services are all very likely to be playoff bound and now that, if they don't get him, he may end up beating them in the postseason or to it.

i think he said "worrier". he's worries until he strings some games together

If Lee ends up in the division or on a team the Phillies face in the postseason, the trade is a mistake. Everyday it looks more and more like Rube cocked it up, as they say in the World Cup.

Sophist -

Sure, the teams that are likely bidding on Lee now are doing it during a playoff run, which might enhance their value to those teams. Wouldn't that just reinforce the argument that Rube bungled the trade in getting much less than maximum value for a very valuable trading chip?

Sorry, should be "enahnce HIS value", not their.

Agree with Weitzel to a point on Utley. Friday and Saturday he was the hitter we all expect, collecting five hits, including 3 for XBases. The 4 hits in those other 4 games may have all been of the swinging bunt, dribbling, pitcher failing to cover first, infield single variety. Oh, and he got hit by a pitch somewhere in that stretch, too, so, that's a plus.

Anyone see htis rookie for Cleveland pitch before? I haven't. Based on some of the numbers and the fact that he throws right, you might expect Utley, Howard and Ibanez to light it up a bit tonight.

What?! We haven't DFAed Ibanez yet? But everyone on Beerleaguer said we should! Ignore the fact that he's, at worst, slightly above average, and cut his ass midseason. This team needs way more Ross Gload.

I'm surprised there hasn't been more comment on this conclusion from Bob Fernandez today:

"The (recent offensive) slump is merely a distraction, however. The bullpen problem will be what sinks the Phillies unless general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. goes out and finds someone for the closer's role.

It might not seem this way, but the offense will heal itself eventually. It is too good not to. The bullpen is another matter. It might be doing as well as it can right now."

Chris - Yes. There is no real arguing that point. It is a Management Blunder 101.

And I should probably apologize for bringing up the Lee trade again.

I'm just as tired of talking about it as everyone else, but the discussion will get MUCH worse if Lee gets traded to an NL contender or even the Mets...either of those scenarios could be disastrous for the Phils this season.

king myno: You could make a pretty good team out of players that Beerleaguer posters said should be cut.

Chris, maximum value has a tense. Not only has Lee been lights out this year, but his value to team's increases as their uncertainty re their final standing decreases. Unless you're suggesting Amaro should have held on to Lee and them traded him in July (can you imagine such a thing? I can't), I don't see how it reinforces the bungling.

Now, I'm not saying, even if the M's get some hot prospect that Amaro didn't bungle the trade. I'm just saying that you can't assume that Lee's value is as it was in the offseason.

"Lunch with Charlie" was on the radio today with the 610 afternoon team - who i think do a good job. Amazing how he will bumble through the most simple questions and sound like he can't speak english...and then they asked him about hitting and he strung together about 3-4 sentences of the purest uninterupted english i've heard on sports talk radio.

He said that Raul is a "worrier" and that he has been hitting the ball better and better as of late and once he strings together a few good games, he'll be going on a tear.

He had some anaylsis of Chase too, said he was having trouble getting comfortable with his footing in the batters box that helped compound the slump into a much worse drought than ti should have.

I was 50/50 on the Lee deal when it happened. But every day it looks worse and worse and there is a pretty good chance that it'll look still worse come August.

Phils have played Indians 6 times in interleague (2002, 2007). In four of those games, the starting pitchers were Sabathia (twice), Lee and Colon. (Danys Baez started one of hte other two). It must suck being an Indians fan nowadays.

Do the Mutts have the bullets needed to trade for a pitching stud like Lee? If they do, count on Lee signing longterm with them (IMHO)

Does a trio like Lee, along with Pelfry & Santana (even with Santana's 'off yr') worry anyone, & do you think that trio would spell the end of the Phils' success in the NL east?

there are other teams with better bullets than the mets. but yeah, I mean, they could deal for him.

Yo, newer thread

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