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Wednesday, June 16, 2010

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marc h - funny you should ask. an email from a coworker this morning:

Jamie Moyer pitching in BandBox Field tonight – HAHAHAHA!!!

Over/under – 9

Who wants action?

I'm inclined to pick the over.

Haven't read the the comments, but JW's thread is a downer.

OK, here we go. I'll be the first to stick my neck out.

We know about baseball and about how s**t can happen. Well, it's happening to the Phils....................................right now. This team has collectively given us a view of what Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde look like for an entire team. A month ago they were beating other team's brains out. Remember how the smacked around Santana on Sunday night.

It seems like "forever ago" doesn't it.

So, as I place myself in harm's way on this board, I am chuckling to myself and asking whether I'm going to look like an idiot at the end of the season.

But I don't think so.

There is too much talent on this team.

This team will rebound.

This team will build momentum.

It is going to get ugly for the rest of MLB when it happens.

And, at the end of the season, I fully expect them at the top of the division.

Cream rises to the top.

Signs of a rebound are already happening. You just have to look a little deeper to see them.

Remember that on June 23 last year the Yankees were 5 games back.

On Aug 23rd the Twins were 6.5 back and 4 games under .500.

There are more examples but you get the picture.
So, say what you will, but there are still 100 games left and I fully expect to see this team in the playoffs.

Fire away.

MG- no answer yet? You would think if I was so notably making a double standard you would be able to tell me when I did it.

If they dont make the post season this year I still think attendance will be close to a sell out next year and the front office wont care about missing the post season. If they dont make it next year I think attendance will really start to drop (considering how high the ticket prices have gone up). That's when the front office gets nasty. Fan favorites start to walk, the owners pretend to be broke (pay no attention to all the money they have been banking the past few years). Amaro is the right guy for them to have in place for this scenario.

""You be a fan like you want to be, I'll be a fan like I want to be, thanks very much."

Almost as interesting as not replying at all."

Sure, I'll take the bait.

According to a metric by Baseball Prospectus, the Phils now have an 85% of not making the playoffs...therefore, rather than pissing and moaning about how to make the team better NOW, it might be more relevant to piss and moan about how to make our team better next year.

What's wrong with statistics as applied to baseball? Do you embrace sabermetrics? Do you believe stats and analysis of those stats brings relevance to baseball. If so, what's your problem?

Rube is Pulling out the Pedro Martinez pig in a poke. Does anyone really want him here? Maybe at 1-2 mill. Other than that, it's a waste of resources. This team needs a lot more than Pedro.. like Cholly's foot up the entire lineup's azz. I don't think we can get our help externally.

Gsl - I don't have time to go back and look at KK/Moyer poor start's this season but I remember you criticizing them after their poor outings this season.

Can Pedro play SS?

tim, I disagree. I think the FO cares deeply about makeing the postseason.

Wasn't there a story about John Middleton going up to Howie in the locker room after game 6 last season and saying "I want our f*****g trophy back"?

This team is having a really bad spell.

One player will lead the breakout. I don't know who, but it will happen.

When it does the silence of the trolls will be deafening.

Right now, the Phillies make me sad.

Although I haven't pushed it yet, my finger is square above the Panic Button.

Something's got to give.

Right?

"Rube is Pulling out the Pedro Martinez pig in a poke. Does anyone really want him here? "

Is he really? I haven't read the latest. I like Pedro, I like his personality. That being said, I don't think pitching is our biggest problem.

I'm siding with awh. I plan on going home tonight and throwing on my Phillies jersey and rooting for this team like it is the World Series. This team needs some good vibes and I plan on sending some from my couch.

Instead of b!tching all day on BLer I suggest we all find our inner fan and support our team.

conshy matt: i'm neither. not that there's anything wrong with that. baseball is show business. it is supposed to entertain you. and some measure of whimsy will always be a part of it...from the phanatic and fans dressed like it's halloween to most give-away items. mb i should have used the word humor.

MG- If you are going to come at people and make accusations than you better be able to back them up.

Accusing someone of this or that because you said so is ridiculous.

Your point, if there was one, was that Roy didn't have a good start. Okay. Great insight. No one was arguing that. I took exception to this idea that he somehow didn't give the Phils what they needed. Thats like saying a .400 hitter didn't give his team what it needed in a plate appearance where he made an out. The guy had a bad start. It doesn't mean any more or less because you attached meaning to the game in your head or because now you predict a sweep.

"Remember that on June 23 last year the Yankees were 5 games back.

On Aug 23rd the Twins were 6.5 back and 4 games under .500.

There are more examples but you get the picture.
So, say what you will, but there are still 100 games left and I fully expect to see this team in the playoffs.

Fire away."

I would be the first to say it's not impossible, just that it's not the most probable for the Phils to make the playoffs at this point. If they do, I'll be happy. If they don't, it will be what I'm expecting at this point.

The team is slumping badly. It will be tough to break out of it on the road against the Yankees, but the schedule lightens up a bit over the next few weeks. They just need to get hot. They are only 3.5 games back. People are getting a little crazy right now.

Oh well, at least Cliff Lee pitches for us tonight. Oh, that was last year. What did we get for him again? Why did we trade him? What was Rube thinking?!!!

Let's be honest here. Most fans are idiots. They don't know the game, they have short attention spans and their knowledge of the players is thin.

Beerleaguer is a cut above the average fan site, but still suffers from those same ailments. A review of this thread underscores that.

There is no team that stands out in the NL East. It's a mediocre division with the race likely to go down to the wire.

The BP odds are laughable. They are based mainly on where a team is in the standings. If the Phils get hot and make up their massive 3.5 game deficit (would it be a record to make up a deficiit that huge on June 16th?), their odds of post-season will rise from 15% to 55%.

In short, it is way, way too early to know what the future holds for this team. But to those with tiny brains who can only think 1 or 2 games ahead, it probably does seem quite daunting.

clout, well said.

bay slugga - did you read about the russian physisist who was paid by the Dodgers for years to direct positive energy to the team? apparantly, yours is a payable position.

so we're 10 weeks into the season and have been slumping for 4 of them. i'd say if it lasts 2 more weeks, hence equalling half of the season, you can argue (if you can't already) that this is more than a slump.

by the way, is this number correct - 7 hr's in the last 23 games for the phils? if so, amazing.

Gsl - Why are you are thick-headed about this topic? I was talking about last night. Halladay didn't give the Phils what they needed last night. He stunk. It was like he made 1-2 mistake. He just wasn't pitching well last night. I would be willing to bet that anytime a team's starter give up 6 ER that they end up losing that game at least 85-90% of the time.

If Moyer pitches tonigt and gives up 6 runs too, then he failed tonight too.

"The BP odds are laughable. They are based mainly on where a team is in the standings. If the Phils get hot and make up their massive 3.5 game deficit (would it be a record to make up a deficiit that huge on June 16th?), their odds of post-season will rise from 15% to 55%."

You spend your post telling us how the average baseball fan doesn't know anything, then go ahead and completely slam baseball prospectus's rankings.

Is there a special reason you think the folks at baseball prospectus know less than you, a casual fan?

Heather: Is 3.5 back with ~100 to play really that improbable?

Heather: Go back and look and see what BP had for odds on the Phillies late in the season in each of the past 3 years.

Bay Slugga: No, it's not, but apparently it only happens 15% of the time. That's just the statistical truth.

Of course, it's not a very refined truth. What the odds don't differentiate between is a team playing below it's potential (like the Phillies), and a team playing above it. For example, the Phillies are 3.5 back, and the Oakland A's are 4 back in the AL West. However, the A's are given a 17 percent chance to make the playoffs, almost the same as the Phillies' 15 percent chance (4 teams instead of 5 in that division, I believe is the reason why it's slightly higher for them).

The Phillies, by any reasonable interpretation, should have a better chance to make the playoffs than the A's. It's just about interpreting numbers in context. It's really not that hard to do, people.

Heather- the point is that those BP odds are devoid of context. Those numbers don't know that the Phillies have made a habit of strong second halves to overcome weaker divisional opponents. Or that they have a whole bunch of guy under-performing in relation to well established career norms. They also don't know that Rollins is due back some time in the next week or so. They are raw numbers that can be used to support an argument, not an argument in themselves.

MG- right. Your point was that he didn't make a good start. Okay.

I brought it back up, not because I am thickheaded but because you made an accusation that you couldn't support.

Clout: To be fair, you and I both know that what the Phillies did in 2007 was exceedingly rare and unlikely--it was the 1 in 100 that actually occurred. Saying that BP's odds were wrong because of that is sort of stupid.

There was a 1% chance (or whatever it was) that the Phils could make up 7 in 17. The fact that it happened is not evidence that the odds were wrong. I believe it was the only time in history it had actually happened.

awh,

As disgusting as it is to watch this happen on a day to day basis, for the long term I'm still betting the odds are you have it right.

It could end up as a "lost year" - that does happen (ask the Mets), but it is way, way too early to give up on this team. Not with the quality of players and their track record of resilience and bouncing back.

If this were a team of untested players who had never made it to the playoffs and who were playing well above their heads for the first month or so, I would tend to agree that maybe what we are seeing is closer to the truth than the first month. But grim as it is now, I think the truth for this team is closer to the Phils we saw in late April/early May than the the sad sack stuff going on now.

Time to hunker down for the long haul rather than jump overboard.

Heather-- reports are the'yre keeping communication open w/ Pedro IF he wants to pitch this yr. Word is, he's workin out near his famous mango tree. Again, he's a waste of time for THIS team

The A's odds apparently got a big boost from that Conor Jackson acquisition.

It's ridiculous to count this team out at this early date.

Hey Heather,

I'm assuming you're talking about clout. He might be right and he might be wrong. But one label that I don't think applies at all to him is that of a "casual" fan.

I agree with Heather. When you watch them play even a 15% chance of making the playoffs seems generous. They just look uninspired.
Hey maybe Adam Eaton is going to turn it around some day too, if you wait long enough. I just can't remember seeing them look this dull. Other teams can smell the pennant too.

"There was a 1% chance (or whatever it was) that the Phils could make up 7 in 17. The fact that it happened is not evidence that the odds were wrong. I believe it was the only time in history it had actually happened."

Yes, thank you. Just because they defied the odds does not mean the odds were wrong.

And a casual fan saying the the highly paid, highly knowledgeable folks over at Baseball Prospectus who do this for a living are full of crap is simply not believable.

BP does have reports also adjusted for PECOTA and ELO data, which takes into account some of the things folks said the original report wasn't taking into account (links on the previous website address I provided)...still, none of them has the Phillies odds of postseason at higher than 25%. Still not great.

clout -- The BP odds are laughable. They are based mainly on where a team is in the standings. If the Phils get hot and make up their massive 3.5 game deficit (would it be a record to make up a deficit that huge on June 16th?), their odds of post-season will rise from 15% to 55%.

Where did you get your degree in statistics or applied mathematics (please forgive me if you possess such a degree)? How do we know that Baseball Prospectus' odds on making the playoffs aren’t weighted towards the relative strength of schedules and how player performance has trended over the last 7 days/ 15 days/ month? I don't know the calculation either, but I'm pretty sure the 15% isn't derived simply by dividing the number of teams in 3rd place on this calendar day by the number of said teams who won the WFC.

Heather seems like a good fan. She's pragmatic as hell; I like it!

"Heather-- reports are the'yre keeping communication open w/ Pedro IF he wants to pitch this yr. Word is, he's workin out near his famous mango tree. Again, he's a waste of time for THIS team"

Well, if nothing else, if Pedro signs at least I will get some amusement out of his interviews, which are always good for a laugh. And he'll have the best hair on the team.

I'm taking my positives where they come.

Is a 1 in 8 or 1 in 4 chance to make the playoffs really that grim? Are people under the assumption that their chances to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season were much higher than that?

I remember many a season when fans would be very excited to have a 1 in 4 or even 1 in 8 shot to make the playoffs.

Its all about perspective. This team, no team really, has great odds to make the playoffs. It's not an easy thing to do.

"Hey maybe Adam Eaton is going to turn it around some day too, if you wait long enough."

Dave, I laughed when I read your comment. However, your analogy lacks a bit.

Adam Eaton was a marginally talented MLB pitcher - even at his best. He was not the type of pitcher with whom a team wins championships, hence his being left off the roster and sent home.

Who wants to give me the odds that the Flyers win a playoff series down 3-0 and go on the run that they did.

I find perverse pleasure in this place when the Phils are losing. It's f'ing June and the lifeboats are hitting the water. People expect your average fan to look at what happened in '07 and take heart? Hell, the following year, with those same 17 games to play, they were 3.5 back of hte Mets and 4 behind Milwaukee in the wild card and this site was enduring a hurricane of 'season=over' posts - and they had 4 games coming up against Milwaukee! Fatalism will not be excised from this fan base in our lifetimes.

Hugh, excellent points all.

"so we're 10 weeks into the season and have been slumping for 4 of them"

I think this is a great way to put it, though I disagree with the idea that for this to be officially more than a slump it has to last two more weeks (hence half the season).

Playing this badly for 40% of the season so far is worrisome enough on its own, and worse than your average slump. Plus, this stretch of games has been so bad that its going to result in decreased offensive numbers for all the regular players and the team as a whole by the end of the season, even assuming they come out of it soon. I'd say that makes it something worse than a normal slump.

Even if the offense turns it around, the Phillies can't go on a run with this starting pitching. Compare the 3-5 starters froim last year (Blanton Happ, Pedro) to this year (an ineffective Blanton, Moyer and Kendrick).

So what would I do?? When Madson comes back, I would press one or 2 of the bullpen oichers into starting duty (Contreras ands Durbin). Those 2 are better than anbything we can get on the trade market right now. To replenish the 'pen, I would call up either Mathreison, Zagusrski or both.

Heather-- can't deny THOSE Pedro attributes. Love talkin' bout his career numbers whenever he's around also. Unfortunately, most of the pitching's been good around here. But if I see more DP's and pop-ups with the bases full--- MAN THE LIFEBOATS! :)

Hugh -- Can Charlie get these guys to believe they can win; just like '05 through '09; always unable to be counted out, ever, because they play "...all 27 outs.” I really miss that. With the injuries, they really need that drive and ambition.

I'd love to know if Ryan Howard has uttered the "...get me to the plate, boys." battle cry even once this season. Yes it's relatively early. However, losing becomes a habit – shouldn’t Ryan Howard be slugging/showing us the way out of the losses?

"When Madson comes back, I would press one or 2 of the bullpen oichers into starting duty (Contreras ands Durbin). Those 2 are better than anbything we can get on the trade market right now."

interesting idea, but i don't see how taking away a strength necessarily helps this team right now. we don't have many strenghts to hang our hats on. maybe if we're 8-9 games out of it, why not?

BP's odds for the Phils dropped 16 percent in a week.

Makes you think if they have a good week their odds will go back up 16 percent.

What are the odds of the Phils having a good week between now and September?


BP's odds are dropping even faster than Ruiz's OBP.

"BP's odds for the Phils dropped 16 percent in a week.

Makes you think if they have a good week their odds will go back up 16 percent.

What are the odds of the Phils having a good week between now and September?"

1. As the season gets longer, and the sample size greater, the effect of a single good week will be less and less.

2. One good week still isn't getting us to the playoffs if it is sandwiched by weeks of mediocre/crappy play.

Jack: My point is simply that the odds are meaningless. In each of the past 3 seasons the odds were against the Phillies much later in the season than now. Not just in 2007. The odds will always be best for the team already in first place. That is a big duh!

I'm mad at how bad they are playing, but I still expect them to win the division. They are just plain better than the other teams.

BTW, I didn't mean to denigrate BP. It's a great site. And I'm sure all kinds of good sabremetric stuff goes into their odds. My only point is that those odds are meaningless. Worthless. Especially on June 16. It's like using a 10-game UZR to make statements about how good a fielder someone is.

Yes, BP's odds are great at predicting that if teams that are in 3rd or lower keep playing the same way they will finish third or lower.

Teams this year have played around 64 games or so. Around that mark last year, 4 of the 6 teams who were in first place did not finish first.

Of those 4 teams who dropped out of first, only one made the playoffs at all.

Guessing the BP odds for them were pretty high, though, back in mid June.

The two teams that managed to end the season in first had leads of 6 or 9 games around this time, not 2 games in the loss column.

"TT- Rube thinks Dobbs and Gload are doing fine. We should have a couple of guys better than them ready for the show every year."

If Amaro thinks that, he is either lying to himself or to the public or he is delusional.

I expect the next thread to be JW announcing that Beerleaguer is shutting down. This has turned into one of the most idiotic threads in history.

* After starting out white hot, the team went into this big slump b/c they realized Cliff Lee isn't here.

* 3 1/2 GB with 100 or so games to play and we need to all accept that the Phillies will not be in the playoffs and should steer the conversation into acceptance of that.

clout - i have a major beef w/ BP. i signed up (paid $30 for a year subscription) which gave me access to - nearly nothing. maybe a few more articles than you can access for free. nearly all the numbers you can get on that site are available at fangraphs and is much more user friendly.

now their annual in print is a thing to behold.

"I find perverse pleasure in this place when the Phils are losing. It's f'ing June and the lifeboats are hitting the water."

In that scenario, the folks on the Titanic would have bailed before they left Europe...

They would have been right...

So in a slightly less life or death situation like this. I will let the ship sail a couple more miles and if it starts taking on more water, bail - who knows we may end on the ISLAND - (sorry that was a TV show) :)

"I expect the next thread to be JW announcing that Beerleaguer is shutting down."

Or maybe that Gillies was activated after month-long layoff?

YO, new thread!

"BTW, I didn't mean to denigrate BP. It's a great site. And I'm sure all kinds of good sabremetric stuff goes into their odds. My only point is that those odds are meaningless. Worthless. Especially on June 16. It's like using a 10-game UZR to make statements about how good a fielder someone is. "

The stats aren't MEANINGLESS. That's like saying we can't tell the odds in Texas Hold Em preflop. If I hold A-A, and my opponent holds 2-7, then I'm still a favorite, even though there are 5 cards still to go. Now if the flop goes 2-2-J, I become a dog, but that doesn't mean the stats preflop were meaningless. More times than not, I'll win the hand based on the information available. That doesn't mean the successive cards won't dramatically change my odds, but it doesn't mean the pre-flop odds shouldn't dictate your evaluation of your hand in the absence of future data (i.e. the flop, turn, and river.)

I perceive it as a similar situation here. Right now, the Phillies don't have a good chance of making the playoffs. Can future events change those odds dramatically? Yes. But that doesn't mean the odds currently are worthless or meaningless either.

In the Las Vegas rumour mill, "Vegas Bigs Court Phillies as MLB Approves LV Franchise" Sources close to city hall claim the MLB is excited about the prospect of the Philadephia team playing in front of less ape like fans.

Heather,
If there is only a 15% chance the Phils make the playoffs and that the season is essentially over, does that mean there is an 85% chance that you will stop posting on this site?

Odds of 15% simply means that an outcome is likely to happen 15 times out of 100. You may like your chances to being one of the 15, but thems still the odds. Obviously you wouldn't want to bet the milk money on the 15% play, but there's no downside to beating your chest for it on a fan blog.

Bedrosian's Beard, thank you very much.

That's the point I was trying to make, but you put it much more succinctly.

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