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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

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Jose Reyes out of Mets lineup with a stiff lower back.

Wonder if Mets fans are still high fiving each other about Utley and Polanco and talking karma?

werth has to make that catch

biggest play in the game in my opinion

Halladay isn't immune to criticism, and he isn't perfect. But he's been excellent and every bit as good as advertised. The offense has let him down far more than he's let them down.

JW, I think you put it all exactly right, and you're very good at being concise, too.

theKrisheim: Agree about that Werth catch.

You want to talk about immune to criticism? If a certain clean-shaven, nice-dressing Venezuelan missed that fly ball near the wall in the manner that Werth missed it, I guarantee you wouldn't hear the end of it.

JW, didn't see the game, but good writeup.

BTW, while expectations are certainly higher, 9 - 7 extrapolates into 90 - 70 in a 160 game season. Split the last 2 and it's 91 - 71, and a likely playoff appearance.

Simply, the Roy Halladay we've been seeing has been pitching well enough to get the team there.

The offense heeds to step on the gas a little.

when did abreu come back??

EF: Poor Jose. I certainly hope he didn't strain his back doing one of those intricate, 15-step celebratory dances he creates to commemorate working a Walk, or some other such monumental achievement.

DH Phils: I, too, agree that Werth needed to make the catch, & that it was a key play in determining the outcome of today's game. But why on Earth would Wilmer Valderrama be playing for the Phillies, let alone in RF? He seems like more of a scrappy SS type to me.

It was funny to listen to Reds' post game show as I drove home after today's game - they said, and I'm not kidding, that this was the biggest win for the franchise in a decade. One guy tried to point out that this is a shell of the recent NL champs that they beat, but they couldn't stop piling on the accolades for the Reds.

This was just a terrible game as well as series. It was clear that Halladay was running out of gas in the 7th inning and he labored all day, so one wonders why the bullpen wasn't used. Yeah, they are not the best, but does Cholly think Roy will always pitch complete games?

The offense has disappeared again. The big bats didn't show up except for Raul's big hit last night (Victorino would've caught it) in the 10th inning. He hit a meaningless homer in Monday's game. The key hits were 3 run bombs by Valdez, Dane, and Schneider. Werth is back to striking out, Rollins spent too much time complaining about strike zone, and where is Howard's power?

I just hope that the Phillies can stay close to the pack, get some key personnel healthy and make a late run at the Division. But for them to do that, the starts might have tio do more than their share.

GTown: You joke, but I think Wilmer Valderrama's qualifications to be a major league shortstop are pretty comparable to Brian Bocock's.

I don't think the offense can be called inconsistent so soon after Utley and Polanco's injuries. It is not like the Phils didn't have their offense problems already. What's worse.... scoring only three runs or that our ace can't win with a three run lead?

Just a thought, but before the season started most here were worried whether the pitching on the 2010 Phillies was going to be good enough.

My, my how things have changed.

DH Phils: It's sad, but you're probably right about that.

awh: Now people are specifically worried about whether Roy Halladay is good enough. Hell, he's nowhere near Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA and I expected him to shatter that record. I guess I'll just have to adjust my expectations for him.

Halladay's good, but he's certainly no Cliff Lee, is he.

Every time Roy goes out and looks human, and Cliff goes out and looks like the likely Cy Young winner in the AL until he's traded to the Mutts, I hope Rube chokes just a little on his Dom Perignon and oysters.

Three run lead, you have GOT to put that team away. A stopper does that. We have Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick manning the positions of "adequate" starter.

Between the 25 mil for Subway man and 20 mil for a non-stopper, I think this franchise may be in trouble for the next five or so years.

And Rube, just a note to consider: DO NOT RESIGN JAYSON WERTH. Thank you. That is all.

awh, not exactly. I won't worry about their offense when(if) they all get back in there even if they sputter again. Those 8 hitters won't be held down for too long in the second half.

And yes, I am still worried about the pitching. I hope Hamels can finally master the curve ball and get that cutter where he wants it. I'd take either of those concerns let alone both. That Bullpen has been spotty all year and I'm sure that without the combination of health and RAJ's moves, they'll remain as such. Until Bluto levels out and Happ returns refreshed and healthy, pitching remains a concern.

And enough of the nitpicking and baseless comparison commenting.

Abreu routinely fielded fly balls like that and he'd do it early in his latest contract. Werth's play in right this year leaves much to be desired, especially when it's compared to the all out hustle he's displayed in recent years, but he doesn't make those types of plays into his calling card.

Domonic Brown is quietly living up to the hype at LV.

bigmyc: I agree, and I actually think Werth has been a pretty good fielder, and I can't say that I've seen him pull up like that before. I definitely overstated it with the comparison to Abreu (I did that more to point out that few people mentioned the play, which was at a very key spot in the game). It certainly looked though like he did pull up to avoid the wall, which to me, is less forgivable than Halladay giving up home runs to two excellent left-handed hitters.

My big shout out about Charlie's magnificent managerial skills mean nothing if he goes to the whip and the horse comes up lame. Color me officially worried. Stark reports that Chase is out for a minimum of 6 weeks. How good is Ty Wigginton, anyway? Is there any way he can be landed without a pyrrhic victory?

I assume the Phillies lost today?
Funny, but it seems like people treat baseball games like they are football games. Every loss proves something bad about the team and their season=over.

Old Phan -- Please reassure me that Chase Utley is not the most irreplaceable Phillie (read that on Crashburn Alley or some such site).

Dom Brown 2-2 with another home run so far tonight.

My guess is in a month or so we're going to be saying that he's proven pretty much everything he has to in the minors. It's just a question of whether they wait for September to call him up.

Dom B needs a triple for the cycle. Single, homer and double so far. Hitting around .500 so far in AAA.

Werth has been awful in RF defensively this year. Not sure what happened to him, but he has looked bad most of the year out there. Ibanez has been much better then Werth defensively. And Raul is a very average defensive player.

Halladay has been good, but not great. And he was brought here to be great. Cliff Lee was great. Was great in the playoffs too.

Doc is thought of as a big time pitcher. And he is. One of the best in the game. But Cholly has pushed him very hard in the first half. There are a ton of miles on that arm and he is no spring chicken. I just wonder if all those extra pitches that he has thrown this year (more then he regularly threw in Toronto) will start to mount. To me, he hasn't looked the same physically since the perfect game (and the stats back me up). And the team continues to lose with him on the mound lately.

Cholly seems to think its in the baseball rules that Doc has to pitch a complete game or the Phils aren't getting their money's worth for him. Its noble that Cholly pushes his starters, but not sure its the best thing in many games. I know he wants Doc to win every game, but is it worth the extra pitches and extra stress to do so? There are some games (like today and the Pittsburgh game earlier) that Doc needed to get out of, when it was clear that the tank was empty and the team behind in the game already.

And this one for our friend Iceman,

How about that kick-ass offense this week in a band box in Cincy? Basically the entire offense consisted of 3 run HR's from scrub players (in 2 of the 3 cases, it will probably be the only 3 run dinger they hit all year) and one good inning (the 10th last night). That was it. No base stealing. Not much clutch hitting. Some DP's. Not much production. Against 2 guys who you have destroyed in the past. Cincy had a simple game plan: Be careful with Howard early. Throw a ton of off-speed pitches (this team has major problems hitting change up pitchers) and then use lefty relievers in the pen. They wanted guys like Valdez, Schneider and Sardinha to beat them and give them credit for coming through. Its probably very fortunate that the Phils found a way to win one of the games. Get out of town and go find the 90LB weaklings from Pittsburgh. Maybe by this weekend, the GM will have figured out the roster. Sneak out a few wins there and hope for reinforcements by next week. At least the Phils won't see Zach Duke in Pittsburgh. He seems to be the lefty version of Tim Redding.

Toronto helped them out with atrocious defense last weekend. Cleveland has no pitching whatsoever, on any level. And they played awful defense (in that final game) too to help open the floodgates.

This is a very average (at best) offensive team in 2010. And that was with Polanco and Utley. If this team goes anywhere, it will have to be on the backs of the starting rotation and the bullpen.

Why does it matter how they score as long as they do?
I know, it really doesn't, but some people like to think it does.

denny b. -- Wow. Agreed. Pray we're not in the 1979 "WTF happened to the season?" mode.

"Why does it matter how they score as long as they do? "

Because you can't count on Sardinha, Schneider and Valdez to power the offense night after night while your supposedly clutch big time money hitters don't hit, and/or when they do hit, they hit singles.

If I thought our REPLACEMENT 6-8 hitters were to be counted on providing that level of offense going forward, I'd be a lot less worried.

Which counts less, a win against Toronto or a loss against the Yankees?

denny b -
"Halladay has been good, but not great. And he was brought here to be great. Cliff Lee was great."

Cliff Lee was 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA for the Phils in the regular season last year...His FIP was 3.11, xFIP 3.69, and a 126 ERA+

Halladay has exceeded every single one of those numbers. He's actually pitched QUITE a bit better than Lee did for the Phils. If Lee was great, how has Halladay been anything short of excellent?

Chris -- Wins and losses count. Nothing else. Sabermetrics aside, it's the only way to gauge success. And the next WFC.

Who says anyone is "counting" on Sardinha, Schneider and Valdez to carry the team? No one, but you can't discount their contribution to prove a point. Not everyone is going to produce the big hit in every game. If the Phils win a game because someone gets hit by a pitch with the bases loaded, so what?
I really don't care who contributes in a victory. I was always led to believe that baseball was a team sport.

speaking of the big guns that havent been producing.
Last 14 games
Uts .366 .417 .512
Ryno .362 .404 .787
JW .350 .434 .575

Bruce - Nothing counts besides wins and losses? That is ridiculous...Wins and losses are a function of TEAM play. If the pitcher goes out and puts the team in position to win every game, he has done his job regardless of how many runs his teammates provide him.

Unless you'd like to argue that Roy's also responsible for the hitting slump the team has suffered through?

Wins and losses are just about the least reliable indicator of a pitcher's performance.

"Halladay has exceeded every single one of those numbers. He's actually pitched QUITE a bit better than Lee did for the Phils. If Lee was great, how has Halladay been anything short of excellent?"

WAR stats this year indicate Lee is the better pitcher this year plain and simple. If the choice was Halladay OR Lee, thus far Lee seems to be the better pitcher.

Sure, Halladay has other things going for him, like his contract, but please don't dismiss slightly critical comments out of hand by pretending this is a black/white scenario where Halladay is OBVIOUSLY the superior choice for this year, because he isn't. He is debatably the superior choice, but debatably Lee is too.

This isn't like the difference between Ryan Rowland Smith vs. Halladay where he's superior across the board. Depending on what you value more, Lee could be better than Halladay.

All I'm asking if for the Halladay defenders to recognize that people who are saying he isn't "all that" compared to Lee aren't certifiably insane and just might have a point.

Old Phan: One thing is for sure: wins that include contributions from role players don't count for anything. In fact, yesterday doesn't count as a win because Schneider and Valdez hit home runs, and you can't expect them to provide offense. One of the Toronto wins included a big offensive night from Gload and the other included 4 RBI from Francisco and Sardinha.

I love how the negativity door swings both ways. When we're talking about the stars of the team, small sample size applies ("your supposedly clutch big time money hitters don't hit, and/or when they do hit, they hit singles") but when we're talking about role players who are performing well lately, the career norms apply ("If I thought our REPLACEMENT 6-8 hitters were to be counted on providing that level of offense going forward, I'd be a lot less worried").

Of course Valdez and Sardinha won't carry the offense. Of course Howard and Werth will carry the offense. The same logic that brings you to the first conclusion should also bring you to the second, unless you enjoy complaining and being miserable about the Phillies.

The 6-8 hitters have come up big for once. Give 'em credit. Well done boys. The Phils aren't counting on them to do it every day. They are counting on everyone to contribute. A TEAM gets it done from someone different each day. Gotta spread it around. Today Doc blew a 3 run lead. For him its usually enough. Today not to be. Top of the order comes through in Pittsburgh. 6 to 8 probably won't.

July 1st 2008.....6 games above .500.....WFC

July 1st 2009.....3 games above .500.....WFS

July 1st 2010.....before a series in Pittsburgh......6 games above .500

Sure we got our injury troubles but that has happened before. Today we lost. Yeah it SUCKS! Go get 'em tomorrow Fightin's! Long way to go yet.


Old Phan: You can take any period of time and use it to make your point. I was talking about last night and tonight if that was not obvious from my post. Obviously taking last night and tonight into account, our replacement 6-8 hitters accounted for the bulk of the offense.

Is that a problem? It could be if it continues going forward. Is it going to? Who knows?

".... unless you enjoy complaining and being miserable about the Phillies."
DH, you hit the nail on the head there.

Heather - denny b's comment was Cliff Lee was great for the Phils last season, and Halladay has only been "good" for them so far this year.

Like my post said, Halladay has outperformed the 2009 Phillies version of Cliff Lee in every measurable way. So if he was "great", how has Halladay been anything less than that?

I don't dismiss the notion that Cliff Lee has been as good as any pitcher in baseball this season. I wish as much as anyone that Lee was still a Phil. But that in no way diminishes Halladay's performance this season.

I couldn't give a phlyin' phuck if Exxon, Scheidnerman and Sardines wanna keep poppin' homers and win games. Please do boys, please do.

What Old Phan said.....

Big guns Last 14 games
Uts .366 .417 .512
Ryno .362 .404 .787
JW .350 .434 .575

If our little pop guns wanna raise their numbers to that level as well then I am all for it.

Phils Phorever!!!

Heather: I agree that Cliff Lee has been comparable to, if not better than, Halladay this year. That's not the point of what I'm saying - Cliff Lee has been excellent. The point is that Halladay has been, by any reasonable measure (not W/L record), one of the 3-5 best pitchers in the major leagues, and arguably the best in the National League. People saying that he's not a true ace or not a true "stopper" are simply wrong.

The one thing we know is that we have no idea what's going to happen in the next month. Everyone is going to have to step it up a notch and at the very least keep the Phils in contention. If this gives the lesser players impetus to play over their heads, so be it.

The jaded lover approach from all these fans over Cliff Lee is hilarious. Heather, why do you cheer for the Phils if all you do is constantly look down at their playoff chances and how Halladay hasn't been Bob Gibson circa 1968?

Unless my calculations are wrong (and that is a good possibility) Roy has pitched 21 more innings this year than last year at this point while starting 2 more games this year. Doesn't sound like an arm killer to me.

Halladay has been very good. I don't think anyone is saying he hasn't been. He is a top 5 pitcher in the NL. The numbers don't lie. If he had some offensive help and a little sharper defense, he would likely have 2 or 3 more wins.

Its really only been lately (since the perfecto) that his performance has been a bit off. He has labored much more and has had to really battle (which he does very well).

But as Weitzel so perfectly said, his stuff doesn't seem quite as good and doesn't seem to stay as good into the late innings recently.

We really shouldn't be comparing him to Lee. But those comparisons are only natural to make. Lee was maybe even better then expected last year with the Phils. And he came up big in the playoffs (which counts even more). Doc was thought of as a better pitcher then Lee. That is what most people thought. The expectations for him were out-of-whack from the beginning. These thoughts of him winning 25 games and the Phils being unbeatable because of his presence, were foolish. The Phils this year don't have the firepower in their lineup to help him. They haven't played as well defensively as past years to help him out. He has been pitching to different catchers all year. The facts are Doc looks an awful lot like the Doc from recent vintage in Toronto. And he's been used as such by Manual. The problem with that is that Doc supposedly had a much better supporting cast to help him so he wouldn't have to do so much heavy lifting. The Phils would make it "easier" for him to win and do his job. So far it hasn't proven to be true.

The Phils have many more issues then Doc Halladay. He'll still end up with his customary 17-19 wins and a ERA under 3.00

But kinda like Johan Santana when he went to New York, that won't mean a whole lot if the team is sitting at home in October.

Old Phan,

Doc is regularly throwing more pitches per start then he ever did in Toronto. If he doesn't throw 110 pitches now, its a story.

Plus he is a year older with already a lot of miles on his arm. And he's pitching outdoors now in humidity more regularly.

Say what you want about pitch counts, but they do matter. Especially when you are consistantly in "high stress" innings in close games (which most of Doc's starts seem to be now).

Again, wins and losses count. Nothing else. It's the only way to gauge success. And the next WFC.

I remain concerned -- bleep Cliff bleepin' Lee -- Charlie will call for more steam from the engine room. And none will be available. RAJ?

Lets just say this about Doc:

His next start is scheduled to come next Monday night against Atlanta on ESPN to open up a 3 gamer against the 1st place Braves.

That is a game the Phils and specifically Doc need to come up big in.

The other thing about the Bravos series is that right now the pitching matchups are likely to look like this:

Monday- Halladay versus Lowe
Tuesday- Hamels versus Jurrjins
Wednesday- Moyer versus Medlin

No Hudson and no Hanson. Phils going with their 3 best in the 1st half of the season.

The Phils will see 2 pitchers the next 2 nights in Pittsburgh with a combined 0-9 record and a sky-high ERA.

So I guess expect 2-1 games both nights.

"Heather, why do you cheer for the Phils if all you do is constantly look down at their playoff chances and how Halladay hasn't been Bob Gibson circa 1968"

Why do you misquote and downright insult random strangers on message boards?

At least all my posts are about baseball and not personal attacks.

"So I guess expect 2-1 games both nights"

As long as the Phils are the "2" and not the "1", lol.

Am I the only one semi-excited to see Moyer on Friday (hopefully) win?

I just love every time he pitches well and gets the win...I never expected him to be doing this this year, so every time he does it's an awesome bonus.

I'm not double checking right now, but last time I looked, I believe Moyer was in the top 5 in the NL in wins. Woot.

The following quotes written om BL today sum up my thoughts for Cliff/Roy

1) Lee might've left after this season, but I'd rather have a championship for this year than a few prospects that may never pan out. Posted by: Steve | Wednesday, June 30, 2010 at 03:09 PM

2) I also agree that Halladay has been great. I have no complaints with the deal to get Halladay at all. He's awesome. Posted by: Jack | Wednesday, June 30, 2010 at 03:08 PM

3)We shouldn't have to move on. We can look at the box score every 5th day and see what Lee is doing and know that he could still be doing that for the Phils the day after Halladay pitches. We don't have to accept that Lee is gone; we need to criticize the FO for dumping Lee for garbage prospects to save a measly $9 million. Posted by: Pat | Wednesday, June 30, 2010 at 03:20 PM

4) It's not necessary to get personal against Halladay in this debate. He's a great pitcher. Love him on the Phillies. But the bottom line is they gave up way too much to go from one legitimate ace to another. Posted by: BobbyD | Wednesday, June 30, 2010 at 03:29 PM

5)What I really can't wait to see are the FO and RAJ apologists who will tell us that our deal was actually better, despite every respectable baseball publication and reporter telling us otherwise. Posted by: Heather | Wednesday, June 30, 2010 at 04:54 PM

Thank you all and good night.

Raul Ibanez is hitting .240, Dom Brown is hitting .458. Can we now agree that the Ibanez experiment is over? The Phils can't do much about the injuries, but they can inject some life into a listless offense. Why not just accept the fact that Amaro has made a very costly mistake and do what is necessary to help the team compete by moving Brown into LF?

Hitman,

If Brown continues to tear the cover off the ball at AAA, he will force the Phils hand. I would expect though, that Dom will cool off soon and those thoughts will at least be tempered for a while.

I think both he and Mayberry (who has been scuffling in the past 2 weeks after a terrific first 2 months) will be up though in late August/September 1st. Of course if one of the 4 OF's go down to injury, then that timetable may change in a hurry.

The real issue now with the Polanco and Utley injuries, is that it truly shines the light on a guy like Ibanez to step it up. Hitting .240 won't cut it now (not that it was cutting it before). Howard and Werth will be pitched very closely and I am sure Ibanez will be the guy that opposing teams go after in late inning situations. RBI situations will likely be plentiful. The question is can he produce?

With a lefty starter going tomorrow night in Pittsburgh, we are likely to see Castro, Valdez and Sardinha all in the starting lineup. Ugh. Very "Pirate-Like" lineup.

Now looking into my crystal ball...


I would have to think that Garrett Atkins will be on the Phils radar. I would think he could still play a decent 3B. He kinda fell off the map in the last year, but he had some damn good seasons with the Rockies. And he isn't ancient, age-wise. Seems like a Phils kind of pickup. A platoon of Dobbs and Castro at a RBI spot is something that a major leagee team cannot endure for more then a couple of days.

Castro is only making about a million bucks, right? Would it really kill the organization to admit the mistake now, pay the money and move him along? Its not like its Jeff Suppan money or even Garrett Atkins money. And both Milwaukee and Baltimore dumped them and took the $$$ hit.

Ransom has been playing SS at LV the past few nights (out of neccesity). While he isn't all that proficient at any position, he at least has played 3B, SS and both corner OF spots this year (he might have even played 2B too at some point this year). Bocock will never play and is only here for insurance (and because you need 25 men on your roster). Call up Ransom and DFA Bocock.

Make the trade for Atkins with Baltimore (he has already been DFA'd). I am sure you could get him for a couple of low-level minor leaguer's (probably a guy like Sergio Escalona). Atkins could fill in at 3B for a while while Valdez plays everyday at 2B. Dobbs could still work in a little bit at 3B and you have Ransom as your utility guy on the bench (and a better RH pinch-hitting option).

Polly comes back after the All-Star break and goes to 2B. Best case is Utley is a quick healer and comes back sometime in mid August, with a healthy knee and a fresh body for the stretch run. Ruiz should be ready in the near future as well.

Madson returns right after the break along with Durbin. Happ also returns, and is used in a bullpen role (likely the long man) and is the first option should one of the 5 starters go down. It will be considered a lost season for him as a starting pitcher, but he will be back in some role by mid July.

Somehow, some way the Phils hang in there keeping within 2 or 3 games behind Atlanta into August. If Utley returns in early to mid August, it might be the spark needed to push them to the top. If he returns later in September or doesn't return at all, it might be too much to overcome.

In saying all of this, it seems like when 2 or 3 injured guys are ready to come back that 1 or 2 others then get hurt. So it would be the Phils luck this year, that a Madson would come back and then Contreras would go down. Or if Utley came back, that Rollins would go down again. That's how its gone since Day 1 of Camp, it seems. Maybe that's just how 2010 will go.

Hitman: Hello from sunny Bali. As for Ibanez, methinks that you, and other posters, are too blinded by his overall numbers. If you look beneath the surface, you'll see that, in his last 11 home night games against right-handed starters whose last names begin with the letters H through P, and whose middle initial begins with M through Z, Ibanez is hitting .311 with an OPS of .851. From these numbers, we can clearly deduce that he cannot possibly be washed up and that, by season's end, his numbers will be right around his career norms.

Denny B - Agreed on 3rd. Dobbs is killing this team because if he was hitting they could live with his shaky at 3b. Instead they are stuck with a guy hitting .150 and the offensivly impotent Castro. Amaro has to make a move here & soon. Hopefully Polanco comes back after the ASB and the Phils can get by until Utley comes back in late August for a late push.

Ibanez also had to pick it up. He was horrible in June and it has been a year now of below average production (sub .250 avg and 750 OPS). If he continues to struggle, Brown may just force their hand in August.

It would have been nice to see Cholly pull Roy after 7 today since he seemed to be gassed. On the other hand, Roy pitched as well as Lee did yesterday, so please stop the comparisons. Lee gave up 4 earned runs last night and ESPN is talking about his greatness, Roy did same thing today but didn't get the offensive support. It wouldn't matter if Lee was here this year, because the offense is terrible and the three against Cincy is a glimpse of the whole year - no timely hitting, big boppers go silent for absurdly long stretches, lots of double plays and defensive lapses. I'm amazed they are still so close in division race, I hope they wake up soon and we get some guys healthy.

You know guys, if Chase is out for the year, the Phillies could do something like this. It would involve moving Polanco to Second and picking Burrell back up to play third cause you know since he played the position 20 years ago means he can play perfectly well now.

Yawn. God you all whine a lot. I'm starting to think that Bruce is absolutely no doubt a troll.

Usually there's some good stuff in one of these threads. Sure some bitching or what not about peoples 'pet peeves' BUT there's usually a nugget of gold or something. There is nothing I learned at all in this entire comment section I'm not sure one post counted as insightful (maybe Chris' deconstruction of the Cliff Lee is better than God theory.)

Oh and say guys we should start a Cliff Lee Religion. It's easy to join all you have to do is the next time you see Cliff Lee in person make sure you get down on your knees and start Blo... er I mean praying.

GTownDave: OMG, he enjoys playing baseball, what a turd! He obviously is a classless twit who wants to show up the other team...no wait....that makes no f--ing sense.

A Mets fan comes to a Phillies blog in the middle of the night, reads through an entire comment thread, finds a passing derogatory comment about a Mets player, and sees fit to defend him.

That's weird - the Mets fans that come here to post often say that Phillies fans are obsessed with the Mets. I've never posted on Metsblog at any time, much less at 3:30 in the morning.

Through less than half a season Halladay is as advertised. His numbers, including his peripherals, are right in line with his career numbers. His ERA is actually lower than any he's ever posted in a full season, and his K9 is at it's career best 2009 heights.

His perfect game was his last start in May. Here's his month of June

6 starts, 44 IP, 1.341 WHIP, 42 K, 16 ER (3.27 ERA).

What should the W/L record be of a pitcher who gives up 16 runs in 6 starts (striking out 1 an inning)? Should probably not be 2-4.

Halladay has been laboring alot lately. Your ace gives up 4 runs, he doesn't really expect to win but, he hopes to. It just isn't happening for him. I expect Manuel thought about lifting him after 7 then looked down at the bullpen and thought, 'hell, this guy's still the best chance we've got.' Didn't work out. That homer was a meatball. The one by Votto was a damn good piece of hitting. 13 hits is a sh!tload. I still like his chances Monday against Atlanta. I'm p!ssed that they've got 4 in Pittsburgh and he isn't pitching one of them. What are the odds? (4:1, of course)

Worried about the game tonight for no logical reason. McCutchen wasn't good enough to crack a very mediocre, at best, rotation out of Spring training. Only in the bigs due to injuries. What could possibly go wrong?

Don't let denny b fool you people. His comment a few threads ago was that this has always been an overrated offense. He's retroactively trying to make it seem like he was only saying that about the team this year.

Charlie is letting Halladay throw a ton of pitches. I have a feeling it will affect him in the post season if they make it that far. The way he is pitching now I see his ERA continue to climb over 3. I believed the hype that had him as one of the best pitchers of all time. He looks very beatable almost every time out. Based on the hype people were disappointed last year when we got Lee instead of Halladay. Based on performance they are disappointed now that we dont have Lee. What Phila athletes HAVE lived up to that kind of hype? DR J and Pete Rose come to mind...

Tim, Halladay is exactly as advertised. Adjust your ridiculous expectations. Halladay's bad month's ERA is 3.27. His best month's ERA, so far, was 1.80. He'll end up somewhere in between.

A three-spot wasn't cutting it.

It especially doesn't cut it when the runs came off a DANE SARDINHA 3R HR. When your entire offensive contribution comes from your back-up catcher's back-up...you have offensive issues.

Time to step it up, boys!

There's no doubt that Ibanez' first half has been disappointing, but in the time period since I've looked his BAbip on LD has actually decreased. So while his LD remains around career norms, his BAbip is 40 points below career norms.

LD career: .762/.760/1.074 -- .756 BAbip
LD 2010: .581/.568/.837 -- .568 BAbip

Is there any reason LD off Ibanez' bat are more easily caught? I doubt it. If Ibanez' BAbip on LD were his career norm ranges, he's be batting ~.270/.360.

Here's the arithmetic on that adjustment for the non-believers.

Ibanez is 25-43 on LD (.581). His career AVG on LD is .762. 33/43 is .767.

He's 61/254 on the season (.240). 69/254 is .272.

Why is his LD BAbip so low? According to batted ball data, he's making good contact (with decreased HR/FB so far).

A previous post about Halladay being a "big game pitcher" got my attention.As far as I know he has never pitched in a big game and that's why he wanted to come here.
Imagine the final game of the season Phillies Halladay versus the Braves Cliff Lee. Winner goes to the post season, loser goes home.... I saw what Lee does in those type of games. Hopefully Roy will be as good.

Postseason odds take a hit, down to 31 percent.

Still, best odds for a third place team outside of the AL East.

Jack, before Lee came here he'd never pitched in a "big game" either. Halladay is a better pitcher. I'd take my chances with him.

And just so everyone knows, Doc actually has a better ERA+ than Lee *this season*. The Mariners and their terrible offense has provided Lee with about a half run per game more run support.

Lee's worst ERA by month was in May, and it was worse than Doc's current roughish month. This just in: if anyone hasn't noticed from watching this team for the past few seasons, even All-Stars have stretches of - for them - subpar play.

Jack,

I can only imagine the game chat on BL for that matchup!

Didn't Lee miss spring traing and a month with injuries?
Seems like that would affect his era as he pitched himself into shape. Both are great pitchers, we should have both, a colossal blunder but now the FO has the injuries as a reason if they miss the post season so they are off the hook with Lee.

Phills need to win their next three series. 3 from the bucos and reds, and two from the braves...

Do you think thats too much to ask for?

looking at the schedule even more, the phillies have 5 4-game series this month. Are there any numbers to support whether this is a good thing or bad thing?

I miss Lee. Halladay is awesome. We are still going to win the division.

philly.com has a short podcast about the chances of the Phillies reacquiring Lee.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/Sports_Video_PHILLIES.html

I just read (http://www.philly.com/inquirer/sports/20100701_Phillies_Notes__Infielders_seek_2d_opinions.html) Chase Utley visited New York City hand specialist Andrew Weiland. I also heard yesterday on one of the yack shows Dr. Weiland is a specialist with wrist fractures. Any news?

I really need to start following Zolecki on Twitter; damm job keeps getting in the way!

That post about Lee and Halladay and "big game" pitchers was by some other guy using the handle Jack. It was not me.

Last year the Phillies went to the WFS. Over the off-season, they made a number of moves to put a better team on the field to start this season. One of those moves was to tie down a top quality pitcher for multiple years where their top pitcher going in to the off season was slated to become a free agent.

They have, on paper, probably the 3rd or 4th best team in baseball, probably the best team in the NL.

But apparently, that is all just coincidence, because they have the most incompetent and cheapest FO in baseball.

you'll hear something later today. probably will be in the 6-8 week range I would imagine. might need surgery, so it would be a little longer if that's the case.

as far as polanco, it'll probably just be rest i would think. they are just having a hard time trying to get rid of his inflammation. he probably has loose bodies in there. if he got that cleaned out, it would probably be about a month or so, maybe more. that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world

Where does everyone get by with saying our front office is great? Compared with Ed Wade? Every article I have read says RAJ and the front office is definitely not "Excellent" or "elite." Maybe "ok" or "decent" but not outstanding.

Do I just disregard these articles, because, as a fan, I want to believe our FO is the best?

I guess I just don't see how being a fan of the Phillies requires me to believe their FO is one of the best in baseball.

Mariner's Blog about the Phillies scouting Lee/Lopez hilariously mentions that we still have Dom Brown, presumably as a trading chip for 1/2 season of Lee. . . http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2012244437_did_phillies_send_top_scout_to.html

Was watching Fox29 last night. Sports dude mentioned the Phils had a scout in New York to take a look at Jose Lopez when the Mariners were in town. Only batting .244, but he is in the midst of a 13 game hitting streak and can play all infield positions. I would feel much more confident going forward at 3B with Lopez than Dobber. A .244 BA is nothing worth getting too excited over though, but it's better than a .152 BA, Iwamura, or Atkins (I think)

Thoughts?

Jerry Cransick saying the we are interested in Dan Haren and the Dbacks are scouting the Phillies farm for a possible trade.

ftljohn: Lopez is probably a good backup. The Seattle blog I linked to mentioned his power numbers will probably come on in a big way if he moves from Safeco to CBP and from the AL to the NL. He's averaged 18 homeruns over the past 3 years despite a lot of games in Seattle and Oakland's pitching parks. The .271 obp is pretty terrible though.

Haren is signed for the next 2 years at 12.75 million a year, with an option for 2013 and a 3.5 million buyout.

That would be a heck of a move for the Phillies to take that on, especially as 9 million for Lee was too much for them to keep this year (oh, sorry, we were moving on from that).

Seriously though, it raises a question, if that's a real possibility: Would you rather the Phillies acquire the contract of a guy like Haren, or just re-sign Werth, if they have this sort of financial flexibility?

Dan Haren would be interesting because 1) he's undervalued right now, and 2) he's under contract for two more years. Our rotation would be pretty much set through the remainder of our "window". And he's not *that* much of a dropoff from Cliff Lee (better than Oswalt, in my opinion).

Dan: I'd think it'd take a lot to get Haren. What worries me about him is that he has traditionally been awesome before the AS break and middling after. This year he's got a 4.5 era going into the break. So the question is, will he break the pattern or will he be even worse after the break. His FIP and xFIP are at 3.9 and 3.4 so maybe he's a buy low candidate.

JBird- Funniest (and truest) line from the article you linked:

"Re-acquiring Lee would make GM Ruben Amaro Jr. an early candidate for sainthood in Philly, where fans revere the lefty pitcher and are still upset the team did not hold on to him for a 1-2 punch with Halladay."

Bubba: people are upset we traded Lee? I hadn't noticed... I think some reporters in Philly and Seattle have swung by Beerleaguer and seen that just about every thread descends (ascends?) into a Lee hagiography and a resulting denunciation of Amaro.

I don't think we'd part with Brown but you're right it would take a lot. I'm thinking something like Happ, Cosart, Singleton and Gose. With maybe Rizzotti and a "throw it"..maybe we try to expand it to add Kelly Johnson?

Realistically what's it going to take to get a guy like Lee or Haren, If Brown, Cosart, Singleton, and maybe Colvin are off limits? Do you trade May and maybe Gose since we have Victorino/Gillies/James/et al. I just don't think they have the juice to pull off a move for a top pitcher a lot of long term damage to the farm. I think something for a guy like Jose Lopez is much more likely.

I would have to think Happ would be involved.

doubt it. happ is basically damaged goods right now. he's probably going to be optioned to the minors because he has nothing on his pitches. i can't think many teams want him now

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