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Monday, May 17, 2010


The key to May is building up a large lead in advance of our annual June Swoon. If we can get up to around 15 games over .500 by June 1st, we should be okay for the inevitable collapse that June brings.

MLB Tonight called Polanco the best off-season signing of the winter and the best #2 hitter in baseball over the weekend.

Maybe everyone else sees something in him that some on BL don't. He gets hits. Walks are great but Polly hits, he advances the runner, he can get a sac fly when needed, etc etc. And his defense has been good enough at the hot corner.

His defense has been strong. The successful move to third shouldn't be taken lightly, either.

NEPP: You're June 1st wish is in pretty big trouble...

Interleague play starts next week so can everyone start to get your prescriptions filled now to avoid long lines?

For those worried about Howard:

OPS as of May 17th

2007: .808
2008: .697
2009: .869
2010: .804

I.E. There is nothing to worry about. He'll inevitably warm up and catch on fire in the 2nd half like he always does.

I think the BL detracators are generally stat-heads, and if you're just looking at OPS/OPS+/WAR etc. Polly isn't a top performer.

But he has fit into the lineup quite well and handled the glove also.

Of course, people also could be complaining about the years/money...

****His defense has been strong. The successful move to third shouldn't be taken lightly, either.****

Its not surprising that a Gold Glove 2B could make the successful transition to 3B. The question going into the year was his arm strength/accuracy and he has had no issues whatsoever in that regard. He might not be Zimmerman over there but he's definitely solid to more than solid...especially with the rotating door we've had at SS so far.

re: interleague

nevermind...wrong boston series. Interleague dosent really start until we go to Boston on June 11.

****I think the BL detracators are generally stat-heads, and if you're just looking at OPS/OPS+/WAR etc. Polly isn't a top performer****

Even from a statistical POV, I'd take his current 111 OPS+ with no concerns...which coincidentally is higher than Beltre's (who is finally figuring out the secret to being a RHB in Fenway is to pull, pull, pull and play wallball.)

Interesting note: Werth is on pace for 85 doubles this year...which would shatter the current single-season mark of 67. No one has even broken the 60 doubles mark since 1936.

Todd Helton hit 59 doubles in 2000 and a few other guys have hit over 50 in the last few years (Brian Roberts being one of them). I wonder how close Jayson will get to the record.

I'm not sure what is so "out moded," about a contact hitter, disciplined at the plate hitting in front of Slugger's Row.

The only detractor that I became familiar with was the possible liability in the hot corner. So far, so good. I guess a Gold Glove is a Gold Glove, eh?

I don't see Valdez clearing waivers - I'm sure his play has made him enticing as a backup somewhere else. Do the DL Castro, move Valdez for nothing or expose him to waivers and hope for the best?

There's no way in hell that Valdez clears waivers. They should DL Castro and hang onto Wilson until its a guarantee that Jimmy is healthy. There is no reason to not DL Castro as even if he were ready to come back in 3-4 days, there is no loss of ability having Valdez out there in his place.

Plus, Polly seems to be getting better in the field as he becomes more familiar with the position--charging slow rollers, moving to his left.

Thank you for moving us away from another day after Cole conversation. With all the talent on this team Polanco has flown under the radar.

I'd be interested to know the UZR difference between Feliz and Polanco this year (looked in the upper right but couldn't quite find it). I have no numbers to back this up, but I feel like Polanco might get to more balls than Feliz did and I have yet to see a bad throw.

Why did Hamels refuse to throw his changeup in the first few innings? It is his best pitch, and it still induces a ton of swings and misses. I pretty sure Hamels threw like 95% fastballs through his first 50 pitches - what gives?

UZR/150 for 2010:

Polly: 9.6 (8th in the Majors)
Feliz: -31.9 (2nd to last in the Majors)

NEPP - I think it will be hard to break that record or even come close at CBP. Coors has a huge outfield and I'm sure the outfields in 1936 (the last time 60 were hit) were bigger than CBP as well.

Think Charlie will push Rube to keep Valdez over Castro?

****NEPP - I think it will be hard to break that record or even come close at CBP****

So do I. I tend to think the ball will start going over the fence for him as the weather warms up and he'll end up with 40+ doubles and 30+ HRs by the end of the season.

NEPP - where did you find those UZR numbers?

I know it's a short sample, but I'm wondering if Polanco's first few games at 3rd give him a better UZR than Feliz's 2009 at third.

Who can play more positions, Valdez or Castro? That is ultimately what the decision will come down to.

i would recommend any burrell fans to seek out some tickets Aug22-24th when the Stros come to town...gotta be a mortal lock that Ed Wade signs him up.

they can't dl castro. he's 100% healthy. manuel just played valdez because he was playing good

On Hoover:

- Old catchers don't retire, they just fade away in AAA and the independent leagues. If you want your kid to make the major leagues, teach him to pitch left-handed. Next best alternatives is put him in catcher's gear and throws balls in the dirt to him.

Burrell and Jason Michaels back in the same OF. I don't think the Stros could legally charge an admission fee to see that.

Werth has 7 doubles in 16 homegames (0.44/game) and 12 doubles in 20 road games (0.6/game.

he is using the whole field to hit his doubles so the outfielders really can't cheat to the line or the alley. And with his speed Werth can really pile up the 2Bs

Here is his spray chart for cbp

Haven't heard anything regarding Happ in a while.

Any word on JRoll ? Will he be in tonight's starting lineup?

I don't think the bars of Houston would survive a Burrell/Michaels 1-2 punch.

...but they have this guy Carlos Lee in LF and I don't think he is going anywhere. Is Wade dumb enough to burn a bench spot on a guy that can barely do one thing?

Unless I miss my guess, Happ is on the rocky road that leads to season-ending surgery.

I wonder if anyone has studied the effect of having different styles of hitters in a lineup. It occurs to me the Phils have a lot of excellent hitters, and there is no overall style:
Howard is a classic 3 true outcomes hitter.
Utley is just overall awesome.
Werth is a patient pitch taker/fly ball hitter.
Ibanez is a lefty gap hitter.
Poly is a contact hitter.

My point is that some teams might stack their line up with a bunch of high OBP guys and then have trouble driving them home. Or vice versa and have trouble scoring in bunches. Or have too many strikeouts. I wonder if having such a diverse lineup type has anything to do with avoiding a prolonged slump?

- Lefthander J.A. Happ still has a long road ahead of him. Even if everything goes perfectly, he likely won't be ready to return to the Phillies' rotation until next month.

But he has made considerable progress in recovering from a strained left forearm, and the Phillies feel he is ready to throw off a mound.

Happ expects to throw a bullpen session in the next few days, possibly as soon as today, and begin a progression that ultimately results in his activation from the disabled list.

Today's Daily News

Anyone think there's a way Roy Oswalt lands in Philly?

Dukes, right after Polly was signed I posted some defensive stats comparing both Polly and Feliz at 3B for all of the innings they played there.

Polly averaged more chances per inning, and made less errors per inning, which suggests he has slightly better range and surer hands.

I think most would agree that Feliz has a better arm.

Looks like Oswalt makes $15M this year and $16M next year, so unless Ed Wade ships over a suitcase of money with him, I think the chances are highly unlikely.

Isn't this about the time of day for the Phils to announce roster moves?
If Rollins is back tonight and Chooch is healthy , we could see the real starting 8.

Hoover & Valdez have contributed.
I wonder if Dobbs or Gload are vulnerable . Does defense trump a PH from the left side?

Roy Oswalt is owed a ton of money, so keep dreaming. He listed a few teams he would play for, and Philadelphia wasn't one of them.

jtramsay, the Phillies don't, IMHO, have enough down at the farm to get Oswalt, and I don't believe they'd want to make the salary commitment.

I suspect they'll wait and see what happens when Happ returns.

As it stands now, they look like a playoff team even without Oswalt.

Looks like JRoll will likely be back tonight. I presume Cholly will go back to his opening day lineup, with Vic batting 7th. I, for one, would like to see Shane hit 6th, rather than having him lead off the next inning after an Ibanez strikeout. Shane's #s with men on base are way better than his #s with nobody on. Gotta keep this guy hitting in the heart of the order.


rollins is back tonight, pending a good report from the doc this afternoon. chooch is definitely back tonight

Oswalt would be a luxury the Phils can't afford at this point in time, either in prospects or dollars.

They may still need to save their trade bullets for a closer at some point...

Philistine: I like your idea of hitting Victorino 6th. Obviously, his average with RISP is going to go down, but how about take advantage of it while it lasts?

For about his first 4 or 5 games, Valdez was really struggling with his throws to first. But he straightened that out & has done fine ever since. I'd still say Castro is the defensively superior player, but Valdez has a little more life on his bat. They're both basically .230 to .240 hitters, but Valdez has some doubles power & Castro doesn't. Plus, Valdez is a better base runner. All of these variables will be irrelevant to the Phillies' decision, however, since Castro is the one with the guaranteed contract.

Philistine - I agree completely...Ibanez and Victorino should be flip-flopped in the order. But Cholly tends to stick with his lineups regardless.

To acquire a guy like Oswalt, Rube would have to be ready to admit his mistake in dumping Lee, in which case why not get Lee back? I don't see it happening, but one can always hope.

We had a whole discussion thread on Vic in the 6th spot (and other lineup moves that will never happen) yesterday. I like the idea too. It's not because Vic is hitting well with RISP -- a flukey stat if ever there was one. It's because it would put another good right-handed bat between Howard & Ibanez. That would either force teams to quickly burn through 2 relievers (allowing Ibanez to face a right-hander in the process), or it would force them to let a lefty face 2 right-handers who feast on left-handed pitching.

Why trade for Oswalt when you could have kept a cheaper, superior Lee?

I know Oswalt has another year but $16MM is no bargin.

Yeah, I've been thinking about Lee quite a bit, since it's clear that the M's made a huge mistake even pretending that they might contend.

However, do you think Oswalt might be a little gunshy after seeing what's happened to Peavy/Vasquez in the AL? Could the Dodgers be a player?

Just for fun, I did some lineup optimization for the Phillies. I used the players current OBP and SLG as inputs (I used career averages for Rollins since he only played 7 games).


This would get us 5.199 runs a game.

If the Phils do wind up making a deal with Wade and Co. at some point, I think it much more likely they end up with Wandy Rodriguez. He makes a whole hell of a lot less money than Oswalt.

Nats have a boatload of new and used arms arriving this summer...a real wild card.

This is tongue in cheek, but any chance we could give 1 or 2 of the M's prospects back to them for Lee at some point after mid-season?

That would be a lot of fun for the talking heads.

Valdez and Hoover showed what bench people are capable of doing, when they actually get to play.

Also shows (again) it must be the water in Allentown. Guys go down there and generally suck. They get to Philly and suddenly tend to play well.

For me, I'd much rather see Hoover stay around and send Schneider packing. He has looked like the better player. But Hoov will probably go down to AAA and be that 3rd emergency catcher we need.

Kudos to both Valdez and Hoover for their efforts the past week. When you are competing for championships, its those kinds of things that get you over the hump and keep you on top.

BTW, how are the Mets doing? Haven't seen any of their fans here lately?

Huge loss in the world of music with the passing of Dio. It got me wondering, does anyone in MLB use "Holy Diver" as their hitting intro song? The opening rift is awesome.

Chris: I think that has been mentioned on BLer at least once a day!

"This is tongue in cheek, but any chance we could give 1 or 2 of the M's prospects back to them for Lee at some point after mid-season?"

Actually, if you are one of those assuming this was a legit trade to begin with, then the reverse makes perfect sense. Seattle miscalculated thinking that it could contend this year, and we miscalculated in thinking that we had adequate SP to win a WS. So why not unwind the deal?

Is there a chance the M's make a mess of a Lee deal like the Jays did with Halladay last year?

Two reasons Lee will not get moved this year:

1. AL West stinks. Seattle is never going to be truly out of it by the trading deadline.

2. I'm sure they are going to try to sign Lee. the Mariners have plenty of cash so there is no reason not to try to trot out a Felix - Cliffy top of the rotation for the next 5 years.

****NEPP - where did you find those UZR numbers?****

I got them from Fangraphs.

Would Seattle even take those prospects back as adequate trade value for Lee?

He's basically pitching lights-out for a crappy team again, and it's not like Aumont/Gillies/Ramirez have been tearing up the minors.

Could Rube even manage to swallow that much crow?

Lee's already made it pretty clear he's not staying in Seattle. He got a taste of life in the fast lane in Philly, and liked it.

It doesn't even matter, it's never going to happen.

Haven't been on for a few days, so here's my two cents on a few issues.

Can't agree more with the kudos to Valdez and Hoover. They have done a more-than-adequate job in their roles. Castro and Valdez (and Vic leading off) played well enough where Jimmy could take his time and heal. Hopefully, he is 100%.

I was a strong advocate for hitting Vic 7th. But I have been persuaded -- it doesn't hurt that he has been tearing the cover off of the ball recently -- that he and Ibanez should be switched.

UD Hens: Is that a joke? Burrell used "Holy Diver" for years. It was awesome! For some reason, he changed it to the markedly less-awesome "Dirty Laundry". The changed crippled me.

Oswalt would be will never happen though. Its ashame as he's been one of the most consistent pitchers throughout the course of his career and is probably a borderline HoF guy right now.

10 years with a career 135 ERA+ so far.

If memory serves, the year that John Lannan broke Utley's wrist, Chase was on his way to possibly breaking the doubles record. At least I think he was close.

On Polanco:I was hoping for Beltre over the winter. Polanco was a close second though. I was never worried about his ability to play 3rd. He's a bit older but he's not a fossil...yet. It took me about 2 games to realize how much I missed him these last few years. Truly a professional hitter. Great situationally, good when he leads off an inning and just enough pop to be dangerous. Actually, I think I should have seen it over the winter. He's perfect for a lineup populated with bombers. Love the long ball and obviously the Phillies way is proven to be effective, but we are really seeing the benefit of having a high OBP guy right in the middle of the lumber yard.

R.Bill - actually I forgot about Burrell using that song. I'll always associate him with Dirty Laundry. I never thought that was a good intro song.

****If memory serves, the year that John Lannan broke Utley's wrist, Chase was on his way to possibly breaking the doubles record. At least I think he was close.****

Since you asked and since I'm bored:

Chase had 41 doubles in his first 100 games (101 team games) when he broke his wrist. Had he kept that pace for the full season, he would have ended up with 66 doubles...1 shy of the record. (assumes 162 games out of Chase). Had he played 159 games (average season the two years around his 07 campaign), he'd have ended up with 65 doubles.

This doesn't take into account his typical decline in performance in Aug/Sep though. Still, he was racking them up that year and was considered a heavy favorite for the MVP when he went down.

Keep Valdez over Castro. He's 6 years younger. If Pat the Bat clears waivers (and he should), the team that signs would only be responsible for the league minimum with the Rays paying the reat of his salary. Does anyone think he be a viable bench option this year with the possibility he comes back next year if (when) Werth leaves? Now I'm not advocating this, just food for thought.

And while there is no way that the Phils should allow JW to hit FA, I believe he will. The Phils could get very creative with his contract to keep him (which is doable), but if they have to move Raul to keep him, I just don't see anyone taking Raul's salary, given his age. That's why I bring up Burrell.

As far as the pitching staff as a whole, I think it needs a little work. Doc has been magnificent as we all knew he would. Cole is still an enigma to me. It's mental with him. The 'pen needs help but for now the guys all holding up.

****but we are really seeing the benefit of having a high OBP guy right in the middle of the lumber yard.****

Correction: We are seeing the benefit of a high AVG guy, not a high OBP guy (that's secondary for him). He makes contact and plenty of it and he knows how to hit. That's huge in this lineup.

****Does anyone think he be a viable bench option this year with the possibility he comes back next year if (when) Werth leaves? Now I'm not advocating this, just food for thought.****

I'd love to have him back in a Matt Stairs type role. We'd have to DFA Gload to do it though. However, theres really no point to carry Gload AND Dobbs anyway. Problem is that Gload is signed through next year and Dobbs will likely be back as its his final year of arbitration. The numbers just dont work out for Pat's return.

How about Javier Vazquez?

Yankees fans are already sick of him and the Yankees might actually have some use for Raul Ibanez. It wouldn't be a 1-for-1 swap, but we have enough pieces to do that deal.

I'm not saying that he's going to trade back for Lee, but I don't understand why folks think that Rube would have to eat crow if he traded the same exact pieces to get Lee back. Every week that goes by is one less paycheck the Phillies have to sign, and as long as they are in first place, it seems like a great idea to have the Mariners rent Lee for the time being.

Burrell looked done as a viable ML hitter the last two seasons...I don't see any reason to sign him up.

Cole wasn't at his best last night, but I would say he labored through 6 and 2/3 effective innings. If he can give the team 6+ innings and only allow 2 runs on a regular basis, the Phils should win most of his starts.

I've been following the Polly discussion and I don't think I've seen much talk about Polly's performance thus far compared to the off-season alternatives. His stats are better than Figgins and Beltre at this point. It's not as if there was a huge selection of 3B to chose from, so that needs to be considered when some BLers pick at Polly.

Ben Francisco has 22 PAs so far this year and is on pace for a whopping 99 PAs for the season.

Greg Dobbs has 32 PAs so far this year and is on pace for a whopping 144 PAs for the season.

Ross Gload has 24 PAs so far this year and is on pace for a whopping 108 PAs for the season.

Granted things will change when Jimmy is back and UC will be able to sub bench guys a bit more when it doesn't involve stacking 3 easy outs at the bottom of the lineup (Castro/Valdez, Bench guy, Pitcher) but the bench is definitely moldering away at the moment.

Maybe give Gload/Dobbs a spot start at 1B occasionally or give Chase/Polly the day off, etc.

Its not a major issue really as all of our regulars are typically good for 150+ starts and that's the price of having a very strong lineup but still...something to think about.

Has Vazquez ever pitched well for a contending team?

Not to mention his career 10.34 postseason ERA.

Everyone complains about Cole being a headcase, I'm pretty sure the Phils fans would rip Vazquez apart (just like Yanks fans do).

JW - Polly is actually slugging .473 and not .415. His overall line is .318/.344/.473.

Frankly, everyone pretty much figured Polly was going to hit around ~.300 but what has been a pleasant surprise is the unexpected pop so far.

ON pace to hit 37 doubles and 23 HRs. Highly doubt he reaches 23 HRs but if he can hit say 14-15 and keep pretty close to the doubles pace he should finish with a .SLG pct at leat .450 or higher.

That would be a big deal because one of the questions with Polanco besides the defense was just how much pop we has giving to give the Phils.

Even if he hits .300, Polanco won't be that valuable offensively if his SLG at .400 or slightly below because he doesn't have good speed or take enough walks to really have a high OBP.

A line of say .290/.335/.400 would once again place the Phils in the bottom half of the NL in terms of production from the 3B spot. It would be certainly be an improvement over 08-09 but not a huge jump.

baxter: Problem with that trade is that you'd be taking on a huge question mark & you'd be significantly weakening the lineup for the here & now. On the other hand, Vasquez walks after this year so, by trading away Ibanez's contract, you'd be finding your money to re-sign Jayson Werth. Might be worth considering if Domonic Brown keeps raking at AA.

If Vasquez keeps stinking it up, you could always convert him to the bullpen where, I strongly suspect, he would be very successful.

Speaking of Figgins...whose brilliant idea was it to move him back to 2B so that they could play Jose Lopez out of position at 3B? Beyond not hittting (he's been brutal in that regard too), his defense has also suffered as a result of the move. Seattle has a lot of things going wrong right now...might be time for a managerial shakeup in the Pacific NW.

****Has Vazquez ever pitched well for a contending team?****

No. He's never done well under pressure. I suspect he'd wilt in Philly just like he has in every other pressure situation he's faced.

Lee made a big mistake by not accepting the Phils contract offer. He's not going to win anything in Seattle. He wants to pitch for the Yankees and make CC-type money. Cleveland couldn't keep him, the Phils didn't and Seattle can't as well.

While I'd like to see him return, it would have to be more than just a rental. Don't see it happening.

Baxter~ I'd do the Raul to the Yanks for Vasquez and throw in a prospect or 2. To keep Werth? Absolutely. But really to keep JW, 10 million in the 1st year should be ok, with Moyer's salary being off the books. In the second year, Raul's money would go to Werth. It's the remaining years that could be difficult.

"the phils could get creative with Werth's contract"

Werth doesn't care how creative the Phils get. If its not the best deal on the market, then they can get creative with someone else.

Flags fly forever. How come people are so quick to trade away pieces of this team. Ibanez for Vasquez? NFW!

"Cole is still an enigma to me. It's mental with him. "
Philadelphia must have the highest percentage of psychiatrists in country.
Why does Hamels' problems have to be mental? How about the league adjusted to him and he's having some trouble adjusting back? Maybe he never will find a third pitch to slot in to return to his previous level of success. Lord knows he's trying.
Maybe he did hurt his arm with the big load in 2008. Maybe just a little, maybe just a little so that he doesn't have the pinpoint control he used to have.
Did you watch the game last night? Was that not a gritty performance, not unlike Halladay's last start?

I think Amaro'd be my hero if he was able to get Lee back for Aumont/Gillies/Ramirez. I'm already planning on going to Lee's next start in Baltimore so I can wear my Phillies gear and cheer for him. I went to a Toronto-Baltimore game two years ago so I could boo Scott Rolen, so I'm trying to even out my karma.

Yes, Cole hurt his arm so badly that he's throwing harder than he has in years and has the highest K/9 ratio of his career.

DPatrone - Mistake? Lee will make way more as an FA this offseason.

The idea that stat-heads around here were against Polly is, I think, not true. I wanted Figgins or Polly over Beltre. People should also remember that reports were that the Phils offered Beltre 3/24 before the Sox signed him (to less) and he turned it down. I had no interest in a Beltre type bat in the lineup.

Polanco hits .310/.360ish and the Phils are getting their moneys worth. Would love to see that 10%+ HR/FB to continue as well. Polanco looks a lot like the 07 version right now.

To be fair to Lee, 2011, not this year, was to be his payoff year.

"Yes, Cole hurt his arm so badly that he's throwing harder than he has in years and has the highest K/9 ratio of his career."

Facts acknowledged, but maybe he made some subtle unknowing adjustment because of arm strain that now gives up the meatiest meatballs that were ever meatballed? I'm too lazy to look, is his pitch count / PA higher than it was?

I'm a Cole Hamels fan and always will be thanks to his 2008 WS MVP performance. I think he'll be fine. I don't understand the irrational dislike for the guy.

The contract Lee's looking for will likely only be available from a few teams. I'm guessing the Yanks, BoSox, and Angels will all be interested. The Dodgers are supposedly focused on cutting payroll as they move through the McCourt divorce, so they probably won't be a player.

Could a team like the Brewers come up with the money? They offered CC a 20 mil per deal before he left.

The real problem for most teams will be the years. The Sox/Yanks can afford to offer 6 years, and I don't think any other teams can or will.


It is mental with Cole. He's got all the talent in the world. He's pitching very well. But at times he seems to not have his head where it needs to be. He needs to be tougher.

Sophist~ Mistake in the sense that lee won't be pitching in the post-season this year, not with the amount of money he'll be making in FA. A fact which I agree with you on.

Thanks NEPP. I knew Utley was having a monster year. I'll never stop hating Lannan for that. As for Polanco; maybe the attribute that is most responsible for him being a good fit is his lack of strikeouts. In the first inning last night he effortlessly hit the ball to right field. Even if that is a grounder he moves Vic to third base. That's something the Phils haven't done well over the years and many theorize that's the reason they go into such wicked scoring droughts. Boom and bust obviously does work over the course of 162 games. But come playoff time he will be helpful when its neccesary to manufacture a run.

"Lee made a big mistake by not accepting the Phils contract offer"

How can you say that? When he signs with the Yankees or Mets after the season, he will get at least 4 years 80 million. He will likely get the same or more than the Phillies offered.

Definitely, looks like Lee's eye-ing Yankee's type money next year. His agent has already hinted at it. Sadly, Werth is looking like he's headed that route as well.

Lee is going to end up like 95% of free agents - where he gets the most cash. All of the other stuff that comes out of his mouth is secondary.

I dont see the BoSox as a player in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. They already have a ton of money locked up in their pitching staff and they need more offense (like Jayson Werth for example...who'd be a great fit for their lineup).

I pray he stays in the AL West. SEA or LAA. No NYM.

24yr old goes out and has one of the best playoff performances in mlb history to bring a championship to the city - piling up 260-270IP on his arm in the process. Then he regresses the next season with less effective stuff and comes back in 2010 and wins 4 out of his first 6 decisions.

Conclusion: he is a mental midget.

Mike77~ Im not talking about the money as stated previously. I'm talking mistake in the sense that Lee will be watching the post-season this year instead of pitching in it. Doc will be there though, along with the rest of the Phils.

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