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Monday, May 24, 2010


We haven't seen much Schneider, but he is probably an upgrade defensively over Hoover. Right?

JW - are you selling copies of your book tonight? See you there.

Did I miss the Beerleaguer update over the weekend? I've been waiting with bated breath, what's going on?

RE: How we would do in the AL East.

The Yankees last year lost series against the Phillies, Marlins, and Nationals. Would the Yankees have made the playoffs last year if they were in the NL East? Most definitely. It's ridiculous to take such a small set of games and try to draw a sensible conclusion from them.

Right now, it doesn't look like we would make the playoffs if we were in the AL East. But considering the Rays and Yankees look like the two best teams in baseball right now, I don't think that's a concern.

Dobbs back to Seattle? Apparently, Seattle is looking for some offense. I'd be ok with Valdez as the Phillies' backup 3B if they can upgrade bullpen.

Dobbs for Cliff Lee, Straight up?

Dobbs, Valdez, Hoover for Lee. The classic "3 for 1".

think people are confusing "playoff worthy team" and "making the playoffs".

If the 1993 Phillies played in the NL West, they would not be a playoff team. That doesnt take away anything from them, its just the facts. Not even the +100 win SF Giants made the playoffs that year.

The same thinking could be applied to the Phillies in the AL East - not as definitive, but certainly a honest statement.

Phillies trade Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez to the Astros for Roy Oswalt. Book it.

thephaithful: I still don't think that makes sense. Had the Phils played in the NL West that year, their schedule would have been vastly different. Who's to say they wouldn't have won more games with that schedule.

That's the problem with these kinds of hypothetical situations... way too many variables to say "they would not be a playoff team."

Maybe make it 4-1. Ship Aumont back.
Aumont (L, 1-4) 4.0 6 4 4 4 1 1 6.25
Sunday's outting

Our bench sucks and Dobbs has certainly been a big part of the problem. But I don't see how replacing him with an even worse hitter (Valdez) helps address this problem area.

With the Phillies trying to resign Werth, there is a 0% chance they trade for Oswalt.

Oswalt's due 15 mil this season, 16 mil next season, and an option for 16 mil/2mil buyout the next season.

The Phils won't be trading for Roy Oswalt.

It's ironic, but the best player that might be on the market who fits the Phils' needs/budget is Cliff Lee.

Rumors abound that the Phils are scouting Bobby Jenks and JJ Putz. Blech to both.

Corrected Bay Slugga's post:

With the Phillies trying to resign Werth, there is a negative 1,000,000% chance they trade for Oswalt.

CJ: Yeah, that's why they're hypotheticals. They don't exist. You have to use a little imagination.

Jack: It's not very imaginative to look at a record... transplant it to another division... and say a team definitely would not have made the playoffs. That's kind of the opposite of imaginative.

CJ: Who's looking at a record? That's a dumb way of doing it.

What I was saying is that based on the quality of our team, I think we'd finish 3rd in the AL East. Right now I just think the Yanks and Rays are the two best teams in baseball, and are better than us. I do think we'd win every other division in baseball. Can you imagine getting to play so many games against the NL Central or the AL West? The Phils would win 100+. The AL Central might be tougher with the Twins and Tigers playing well, but I still think we'd win.

and i actually think they Phils would be able to take a top 2 spot in the AL East this year.

The young arms for Tampa are flying pretty high right now - their rotation is chalk full of LOB% over 80% and FIPs well over a run greater than their ERAs.

The Phillies could trade for Oswalt... and trade him immediately after the season.

Its not like they haven't done that before...

Adding payroll this year wouldn't necessarily preclude them from signing werth for next year...

thephaihtful: Yeah, the Rays probably can't keep this pace up all the year, but they sure do look pretty good, don't they?

Even if the pitchers are getting somewhat lucky, guys like Shields, Garza and Price have real nasty stuff. It's not like they're Kyle Kendrick in 2007 (had to do it).

The 93 Phils coasted to the division title. There was no reason to try to win as many games as they would have had to in the NL West.

Home field advantage alternated between divisions back then, 93 Phils had the home field with the lesser record.

Jack: It's not always about you. I was responding to thephaitful's analysis of the 1993 Phils.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Nats claim Hoover with I-Rod going down.

CJ, it's admirable you defend KK so much, but all I said is what I'm saying today, that until he can get out lefties, he will not be an effective starter in the ML. He can't get out lefties. Pretty much all of his success was against teams with little to no lefty hitting ability. I contend he's a spot starter/ROOGY/AAAA man. Which does have some value, it's just I don't want him on the roster of the best team in the league.

*chock full

cj: the NL schedules in 1993 were pretty much identical. 12-13 games vs every single NL team(13).

Kendrick's stuff is short...Saturday was the first time I saw him pitch in person, and he doesn't throw hard, doesn't have much movement on his pitches, doesn't mix speeds real well, and his command comes and goes.

You add it all up and he's a replacement-level or slightly worse pitcher. He's basically the equivalent of a Nelson Figueroa, which is nothing to be ashamed of. But that also means he's the type of pitcher you're always trying to replace, but happy to have available to fill in should someone get injured. He shouldn't be taking a regular turn in the rotation of the best team in the NL.

jack: yeah the rays rotation is definitely legit - they are earning their wins by the boatloads. I would easily concede they are much better than the Phillies are so far.

If i had to take the two rosters (keeping both teams in their respective DH rules) over the course of the season, I think I would still take the Phillies' even with what i've seen Tampa pull off.

I sure wouldnt be laying a lto of $$ on it, but woudl be my choice if i was forced to take 1.

EFF: you are right i am firm believer that '93 group would have clawed their way to the postseason no matter what - i was just trying to find a better example so posters couldn't use the whole schedule/DH thing as an excuse.

I don't know, except for Longoria at 3B and Crawford in LF, is there a position where the Rays are better than the Phillies? I'd say no (assuming a healthy Rollins). Phillies have the better lineup and with a Halladay-Hamels 1-2, matchup well in a short series pitching wise against Garza-Price. Blanton-Happ vs Shields-Niemann isn't a total disaster eaither. I wouldn't writeoff the Phillies just yet. ESPN has a blurb today analyzing the Rays incredibly high numbers with RISP compared to non-RISP situations and concludes they are legit, but still playing a little over their heads,

Oswalt rumors make no sense for several reasons. Phils needs aren't starting pitching, he comes with a high price tag, and I think his full no-trade clause says in effect for the remainder of his contract.

If there is one guy the Phils do end up with, I hope it is a backend reliever type. People have mentioned Bell but as long as the Padres say in contention he will be hard to move. Plus, he would come with both a large asking fee (at least one of the Phils best prospects) and an expensive price tag next year because it is his last year of arbitration eligiblity. Making little over $4M this year. Easy could double and Phils aren't paying another close next year $8M.


Anyone see this article? Compares Utley to Albert, and Chase wins.

Phils' biggest issue about trading for a bullpen arm too is that the teams that are struggling right now & probably will end up as sellers in 2 months have crappy backend relievers or guys they won't move (Soria in KC).

More and more, I have a feeling that Dotel ends up in a Phils' uniform at some point this summer.

You could actually make a case that Tampa is significantly underperforming on offense. Ben Zobrist hit 31 homeruns last year; this year, he has just 2. Jason Bartlett was terrific last year & has been flat-out terrible this year. BJ Upton had a down year in 2009, but he's still a high-upside player & he sure isn't going to hit .213 all year. Nor is Carlos Pena going to hit .187 or slug .360.

Tampa's pitching has been stellar. Garza, Shields & Niemann are all good pitchers, but they've never been THIS good. There could certainly be some reversion to career norms. But that could be offset by the reversion to norms from many of their key offensive players.

Pat Burell is 4th in DH votes for the All Star Game! Do what you do Phillies fans! Vote for Pat!

Greg V: Thanks comma no...

Hell, I'll vote for Pat. It's not like the All-Star game is anything more than a popularity contest.

Voted Burrell. If for no other reason, I want to see what hat he wears. Reminds me of when Craig Hodges defended his 3 point shoot-out title, wearing a jersey that just said "NBA."

I just voted for PtB. Twice.

I loved that post about the Phillies attendance. Strange to see so many empty seats at the Rays/Sox game. That should be a sellout.

I'd rather see Hoover kept and Schneider sent to the old folks home.

Hoover looks like the better hitter and much better defender at this point.

Our 2011 lefty/righty LF platoon have both gone yard tonight.

Brown with his 8th dinger and Mayberry with his 7th.

Flyers Bandwagon Fans: "The Flyers win the pennant! The Flyers win the pennant!"

I had no idea the Flyers were this good. Kinda cool.

Bruce Ruffin's comment from the last thread is pretty great: "First place in a crappy division does nothing for me." How about the three crappy division titles, two lousy NL pennants and one horrible WFC in the past three years? Does that do something for you?

Let's make a deal: you put together a make-believe baseball league where the Phils play in the AL East and everyone else can stay in the real world and enjoy watching a great team. That do anything for you?

Old Phan: I've been following hockey, the Flyers in particular, for 17 seasons now. Honestly, this year's team defies categorization. Their highs have been as high as any I can remember, & their lows as low. If that dreaded (on Beerleaguer, at least) word "intangibles" ever meant anything, it has, & does, to this Flyers club throughout the end of the regular season & into the playoffs.

I just heard Peter Gammons mention Cliff Lee and the Mets in the same sentence. Wouldn't that be a sad day for Phils' fans? Good news is he doesn't think the Mets will end up with him. Mentioned Jake Westbrook as someone that could be good for the Phils and a more likely candidate for the Mets to pursue. Not being a FA at season's end.

Beerleaguer (via Twitter): "After 4 ER Sunday, ERA at 6.25 with league-worst 31 BB. Coaches call issue mental."

That would be in reference to Phillippe Aumont, one of the awesome prospects Rube picked up in exchange for actual Major League starter Cliff Lee (3.44 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, .252 BAA).

I agree that the issue w/ Aumont is mental: I've thought about it, & he sucks.

If I were Cliff Lee I'd absolutely go to the Mets if they'd give me the money. I'm the last guy on here that's going to continue whining about 'the trade,' but he absolutely has to feel slighted by what happened with the Phils FO. You sign with the Mets and you can stick it to the Phils for 5-6 years, get your money and play in a big market.

It's a horrifying prospect (it's not like he'd make them champions, but he'd absolutely murder the Phils), but unfortunately it is a realistic one. It almost makes you HOPE he signs with the Yankees.

Dan in Philly has a mental disconnect. He says that KK can't get out lefties, which everyone on here agrees with and has been said repeatedly. And KK will never be particularly good until he fixes that.

But Dan then says he doesn't want KK on the team. Even though KK has been pretty good for a 6th starter. I guess if u can't get out lefties, regardless of results, Dan just doesn't want u on the team. dan has no suggestion for who would replace him of course. Like I said, a mental disconnect.

Iceman: Adding Lee to the mix could make the Mets champions. Might need a little more after that (healthy Beltran for example), but they'd be tough.

GTown: Looking back at you age 21 BL commenting season, and I remember thinking you weren't very good either. Give Aumont some time. Jeez.

Bedrock: I was also never part of a 3-poster trade for, say, clout or Sophist. And if I had been, you'd probably think Beerleaguer had gotten royally screwed (& rightfully so).

G-Town, it's been sometime since I've paid much attention to the Flyers (and hockey in general) beyond a cursory glance at the standings. I was a fan (skipped school to go tho the 1st Stanley Cup parade).I didn't even know they made the playoffs until the Boston series, but they look really good, at least right now. It's hard not to get excited when a Philly team does well.

It's good that Hoover didn't get 1 more hit. That .333 avg. would have made other teams take notice.

Nothing wrong with loving the Flyers and the Phillies. Truth be told, the Flyers were my actual first sports love. I grew up 10 mins from Hershey, PA and saw the Bears play when they were the baby club. I was too impatient and full of ADD to really appreciate baseball then and my love for the game only came after I married my baseball loving husband in 1999. Now I'm a bigger fan than he is.

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