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Friday, May 21, 2010

Comments

Happy Birthday! Shame you'll have to watch the Phils get another much deserved loss.

Holy Molly happy birthday! And whatever is going on with the job stuffs, I hope it's all on your own terms. And finally, looking forward to some beerleaguer 2.0.

Oddly, I kinda wish the Phils could face Becket this series. They always seem to grind out good at bats against him, and then put up a crooked number in there too.

Uh oh. An interleague match-up. Dare I say it?

This feels like a loss.

Happy birthday. I'm intrigued to see what is next.

I can promise you this: Beerleaguer is about change in a very big way, and you are going to love it.

Am I a nerd for getting goosebumps while reading this?

Also, Happy B-Day, JW!

"Beerleaguer is about change in a very big way, and you are going to love it."

I assume that means no return of mvptommyd soon.

1) You and Werth almost share the same birthday. Coincidence? I don't THINK so... (Actually I was born on exactly the same day as Milt Thompson.)

2) When our first daughter was about to arrive people kept saying "Your life is REALLY gonna change." While it has, and while it has been in a good and happy way, there is still, always, for me an implication in the statement "really gonna change." Kinda hoping it doesn't mean Cerrone is taking over as moderator.

Dang JW! It's your birthday and we are promised a present! You're the best. Happy Birthday man!

Beerleaguer in 3-D?

Happy birthday, Jason! I look forward to seeing the next phase of Beerleaguer.

Happy birthday

JW will finally unveil that he is in fact Clout.

Repeat from end of last thread:
I was at the R-Phils-Senators game yesterday (love the 10:20 a.m. start time) and had a few observations and questions:

1. Why wasn't Gillies playing?

2. Why wasn't Tuffy Goosewurst playing?

3. Dom Brown both looks better and plays better than anyone else on the R-Phils.

4. Galvis had a chance to make a great play on a slow roller, but didn't make the pickup.

5. Drew Naylor got off to a shaky start, partly because of poor control and partly because of poor defense by something named Mike Spidale in LF.

6. For a slap hitter, Quentin Berry swings at an awful lot of pitches out of the strike zone. I'm thinking his upside may be Chris Roberson.

7. R-Phils tied game 2-2 in 8th, but Escalona immediately coughed up 3 hits to weak-hitting Senators and lost 3-2.

Happy Brithday J-Dub. Can't wait to see the new Beerleaguer. It's been my one stop shop for Phillies news/discussion for years now. And if you are telling me Beerleaguer's going to get even better, well then I feel like it's my birthday too.

Dukes: The thought had crossed my mind. I mean over the course of BL history who has driven up post counts more than clout?

Happy Birthday JW. And I guess clout. :)

Good luck on the next generation of beerleaguer. We may be happy with it. But will Buzz Bissinger???

Jack at end of last thread asked how Brown looked defensively. I don't recall any difficult plays for him, but he moves in a fluid motion out there.

Feliz Navidad & good luck with the job transition.
Love BL as it now is - look forward to new and improved version.


Isn't Clout supposed to be Conlin?

JW is Conlin. I'm Buzz Bissinger.

Quote of the Day (from Zo Zone);

Asked if he might return Rollins to the leadoff spot Friday against the Red Sox, Manuel said he probably would think about that after he takes a shower.

"I don't want to think about Charlie in the shower," Rollins replied.

Happy Birthday J Dub!

re: the Mets/Wagner BPS game. That game is the seminal moment in this current teams history. Everything changed with that game. EVERYTHING. It's the greatest What If question for this team. What if we lost that game??

Re: Howard -- there's been a lot of discussion about Howards approach at the plate and hitting so many singles. Howard the other night after hitting the granslam when talking to Jim Jackson on the post game discussed his approach at the plate. He mentioned he's trying to make contact and going the other way. His goal was to get to the approach he had in 2006. His walk rate might be down. I suspect that will change soon enough when he goes on his tear.

I've mentioned this a half dozen times to people over the years (maybe even here)... but in 2005 I went to Pittsburgh on July 4 to watch the Phils. I was there early for batting practice, and couldn't wait to see Howard. I watched him hit a 3 run home run the night before against the Braves in the hotel bar after just being recalled to replace Thome. [Aside: My buddy and I were raving about Howard and so excited that he had been called up. This skinny kid starts talking trash to us and saying Howard was no big deal. He had struck him out a few times in the minors. That guy... Ian Snell.]

Anyway at batting practice Howard hit line drives to all fiels. Left-line. Left. Left Center. Center. Right Center. Right. Right-Line. He was a machine. Howard went 2 for 4 the next day with an RBI and 2 runs scored.

Here's the box score of that Pirates game. One of the few we've won at their new park. Mr. Bobby Abreu hits a grandslam. David Bell hit a 2b and 3b. Burrell even had a couple of hits. Cory Lidle went 7 strong with the victory.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT200507040.shtml

Color me excited.

As someone that only started reading BL last year and posting some in the playoffs and this year, I feel like I am spoiled with the new and improved version coming out soon.

Maybe some of the BL Elite can share stories of what this blog was like in the day so we ALL can fully appreciate the changes.

Thanks and HAPPY BDAY!

Clout - Gillies is on the DL, I think.

If I had to guess, I'd say Weitzel sold the rights to Beerleaguer or affiliated it with either a newspaper, magazine, or network. Seems to be the popular thing to do nowadays, and it's really the only way to work on a blog full-time without another job. Can't count on advertising revenue alone unless you're REALLY big.

I'm all giggly and excited...

Happy BDAY JDUB!

Bubba-- Feliz Navidad means "Merry Christmas." I believe you mean feliz cumpleanos.

Was that Phils/Mets BPS comeback the day that Harry belted out his signature "Chase Utley, you are the man!" phrase the first time? That gives me goosebumps just thinking about it. That really was the turning point, when we became a legitimate elite team.

Happy Birthday! Had noticed posting was a bit lighter, but figured that was the natural result of far more responsibilities at home. I had actually wondered if you were starting to wind down a bit and moving gradually on to different pastures.

Anyway, very exciting to hear about about the planned changes and looking forward to hearing about them. Again, thanks for this great site.

Happy Birthday to you, JW, & best of luck in your upcoming endeavours. :-)

krukker: That was vs. the Braves in (I believe) '06 or so.

As for "Phils Hope Strong Start Translates To Interleague Play", history presents a strong argument in the resoundingly negative. At least the Boston series will be over by Monday. Their fans are the next worst thing to Mets fans. I feel about them how Sophist feels RE: the Cubs.

I was pretty sure the original "Chase Utley you are the man!" came from a game against the Reds in 06 or 07 where Utley made a diving play to end the game defensively. I could be wrong, though.

The Origin of Chase Utley You Are the Man over at thefightins.

Unfortunately, the videos aren't working any longer, but the date in question was 8/9/2006.

Happy birthday JW/Clout/Conlin/Bissinger.

Sign #1 that I have a problem, I was sad that I wasn't in Reading yesterday to try to narrow Clout's identity down to 6,000 or so people.

Can't wait to see what's in store for BL'er.

What would the folks here be happy with in the 18 interleague games this year?

We all know the Phils troubles in IL games the past several years.

6 games against Boston
3 against the Yanks
3 against Minnesota
3 against Cleveland
3 against Toronto

Would you take 9-9 and be content with that? Understandably, for this club, that isn't a strong record. But that would still be better then recent years.

Looks like the Phils miss Santana in New York next week. Don't know if that's a good thing or not.

My hope for JW is that he turned Beerleaguer into a professional gig, ala Matt over at Metsblog.

Of course, there will be complaints of "selling out," but that's the most BS concept in internet history. If you can do what you love AND get paid for it, there's not much better than that.

But if that's not what the change will be, I hope it's something just as grand and profitable because I love what you do with Beerleaguer and wish you continued success!

Everyone see the latest drama over at our favorite rival, the Mets?

John Maine got pulled after 5 pitches. He insisted he was healthy. Pitching coach said he didn't look right. Manuel and Maine got into it a little. Then the pitching coach called Maine a "habitual liar" in the press.

I love the Mets!

Duetsche Phan: That game was on the island in Harrisburg yesterday -- so now we know Clout is willing to go west, or maybe he's around here all the time.

Gillies is on the DL. He has been out for about 10 days or so.

Oh that's right, it was when he scored from second on an infield single. What an unbelievable moment that was. Thanks for the info everyone.

Top 5 Most Likely New Beerleaguer Features:

5) A permanent image of Mr. Met holding the Phillies magic number.

4) An updating "most wanted" mug shot of a disgraced fan (vomit guy, taser kid, Quebec licence plate guy)

3) "Proud Parent of Beerleaguer Elite" bumper stickers.

2) We never have to see Evony advertisements ever again.

1) Beerleaguer.com redirects to www.victoriassecret.com

Congrats and Happy BDay JW! May you find what you're looking for...

Hope SE: You live near the 'Burg? Nothing better than a game on the island with a Troegs and a Spot dog.

Hmm...just saw that the Phils have the 3rd worst interleague record in all of baseball since 2005. I knew they were bad against the AL, didn't know they were that bad.

And Jayson Stark stated that he hasn't necessarily heard that Werth will remain a Phillie, but the sense that everyone in baseball gets is that the Phils will work out a deal with Werth and trade Ibanez in the offseason.

Just thought I'd throw that out there...

And happy bday JW. Looking forward to bigger and better for BL also.

LA Jeff:

1a. JW himself participates in the Cougar ads.

"I was sad that I wasn't in Reading yesterday to try to narrow Clout's identity down to 6,000 or so people."

With a little imagination, you could round it down a lot further. Just wander around the park, stationing yourself in various different locations throughout the game. In each location, say (in as loud and ostentatious a voice as possible) something like, "This Drew Naylor will never be a major league pitcher because he can't strike anyone out." Or better yet: "That Domonic Brown looks like a young Bobby Abreu -- which reminds me of how glad I am that the Phillies traded Abreu away." If you cover the whole stadium, I'd guess that about 5,980 of the 6,000 fans will ignore you, and the other 20 will take serious offense to your comments. 1 of those 20 is your guy.

LA Jeff, whereabouts in LA? Recently relocated out here and was wondering if there was anywhere worth going to catch a game or two.

The Phils better hope Raul starts hitting more if they want to be able to trade him after the season.

Not a lot of teams lining up to pay 11 million to a 39-year old LF/DH with a barely league-average OPS right now.

That Mets game is right up there with the Chris Coste game from Aug of 08 as one of the best regular season games in recent history.

Heyman on WFAN, saying the Phils' team on the field is the best in baseball (meaning the non-pitchers).

Still weird to hear stuff like that.

Happy Birthday Jason! Your insights are always appreciated and have become in their own right a memorable part of the baseball season itself.

Willard: I actually moved back East last year. I recomend a small bar in Santa Monica called The Shack, it's primarily a Philadelphia Eagles bar but I'm sure they draw a decent Phils crowd during the summer. I lived downtown, as I worked at the STAPLES Center, outside of the big chain places like ESPN Zone (which stinks) they're isn't a decent spot. You can find the guys from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia at The Shack on football Sundays a lot.

Happy Birthday! And good luck with the job transition!

Here's to the Phils giving you a present of a W tonight - maybe even a HR by Howard, and a fine pitching performance by Cole. And maybe Werth won't make any boneheaded plays as a result of a post-birthday hangover. (That really did occur to me yesterday when I heard it was his birthday.)

Jack: Ibanez has really come around since his slow start in his first 12 games. Over his last 27 games:
281/374/472 for an OPS of 846

I think that's a pretty reasonable expectation for him. I'd expect he'll have a few more hot streaks and cold streaks as the season goes along. I'd be suprised if he didn't manage an OPS+ of 115-125.

Opening Day to April 18:
51 PA, .171/.294/.244 - 3 2B - 8 BB, 10 K
Since April 20:
107 PA, .281/.374/.472 - 4 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR - 15 BB, 16 K

Last 7 games: 28 PA, .292/.393/.458

Raul's underlying numbers look a lot like his usu. production, his peak in HR/FB last year aside. His HR/FB is currently around SEA levels from his days before his arrival here. That's either the first sign of diminishing power (although it doesn't seem present in his other stats) or something that will change as the season progesses.

what was the date for the seminal Mets/Wagner BPS game? wanted to look up the box score...

The Mets-Phils game was a barn-burner IIRC. Something like 11-10 final score? Utley had the GW and I remember him actually fist pumping when he got to first base and then he kissed the Vuk patch on his sleeve. Very emotional for Chase.

I'm sure the Phils would have to eat some of Raul's money to trade him, but it's quite possible they could find a team willing to take him if they don't ask for a whole lot back.

Apparently the Phils are confident they can work out a fair deal with Werth that is moderately backloaded to fit into the current budget, and trading Raul would be mostly to make room for Brown. The Phils are confident Brown will be ready for a full-time gig in 2011 (or earlier), and they want to get some youth into the lineup.

CJ and Sophist beat me to it. Sophist, is it possible Raul's HR/FB is lower just because it really hasn't heated up yet? Guys like Werth and Howard have low HR/FB rates as well. Maybe Raul's will normalize with the others once the dog days begin?

doubleh: awesome, thanks.

I actually have that game downloaded to my iPod and still watch it on occasion. I remember my son was only a little over a year old at that point, and I was so frustrated from that game (thought I was bringing bad luck, I'm a crazy superstitious PA Dutchie, sue me) when the Mets took the lead again that I put him in the stroller and had to stroll around our development as I'd done every other game that series and we'd won. Just as I came in the door with him, Chase hit the single. Good times.

@doubleh -- that game is saved on my Tivo as DO NOT EVER DELETE UNDER PENALTY OF DEATH

Here's the MLB.com page for that Aug. 30th, 2007 game vs. the Mets (11-10 victory). MLB.tv subscribers can re-watch the game, a condensed version or a highlight package. Just watched Pat Burrell's line drive home run to left field caught by a fan standing directly beside the Phanatic!

What's wrong with the Evony & Cougarlife adds? That's 1/2 the reason I come to this site.

Also a lot of fun? The Beerleaguer game thread from that game with 1400 comments!

krukker - I think Ibanez' HR/FB will increase, yes, but I don't think we'll see it over 20% again. 15%? Maybe. I went through his numbers a few days ago.

Line Drive numbers

08: .794/.786/1.108 (102 AB)
09: .771/.761/1.214 (70 AB)
10: .654/.630/.923 (26 AB)

FB numbers

06: .237/.229/.753 (194 AB)
07: .207/.199/.655 (174 AB)
08: .221/.216/.627 (204 AB)
09: .308/.300/1.041 (146 AB)
10: .235/.211/.618 (34 AB)

HR/BB/SO rates

08: 11/9/17
09: 21/10/24
10: 7/15/20

in-zone:
swing% contact%
08: 68 / 87
09: 63 / 82
10: 58 / 87

not-zone:
swing% contact%
08: 26 / 72
09: 25 / 58
10: 20 / 71

hits to infield%

08: 35%
09: 32%
10: 35%

He's been a bit unlucky with his LD, his HR/FB is down, and his BB% is up. The HR/FB drop is the most striking (and you can see what's it does to his no. on FB generally), but that's mostly bc of his big power year in 09. His last 2 years in SEA, his HR/FB was 11%. Raul has 41 FB this year and 3 HR. If he hits his next FB out of the park, his HR/FB jumps to 9.5%, which just tells you how small differences can make big ones elsewhere this early in the season. Hell, his HR/FB is probably somewhere under 15% since he started producing.

I think what's most striking, actually, from those numbers is how much this year (despite the slow start) looks like his Seattle years. I think he'll either heat up, and have a year close to, but not repeating, his year last year, or he'll continue as he is now, and post something in between 09 and his later Seattle years. Maybe with a higher OBP. .290/.370/.500. More like his 06 year in Seattle. He's getting older, but the transition to the NL and some friendlier HR confines than those in the AL West even things out.

Happy Birthday...best wishes at the new job

@JW => HBD!

Happy B'day, JW.

What's next? Beerleaguer on Ice?

Valdez clears waivers. JROLL back to leadoff. from @HighCheese

Jack: I'm with CJ and sophist on Ibanez's numbers being a bit better at season's end than now, but I'm curious to know why you think the Phillies will want to trade him?

I do agree with you that his contract will be untradeable without the Phils picking up a big chunk.

LA Jeff, thanks for the info. I'll have to make a trip to The Shack for a football game for sure. I'm inland (Pasadena), so it's a bit of a drive, but nothing too much on a Sunday.

'Hear' you go:

"Chase Utley you are the man!"

http://vimeo.com/9341292

His bases loaded clearing hit & then when Chase scored on the next play - safe at home plate - Harry’s famous saying right around 1:10 minutes into the video

ENJOY!


clout: Because in an ideal situation, the money saved would allow us to sign Werth to a backloaded contract. This would allow Dom Brown to replace Ibanez, a lefty, and keep Werth, the only RH power bat we have.

In the real world, this just seems too good to be true. If this actually happens, we would likely ship Ibanez PLUS pay half or more of his contract, and only receive B prospects/org filler in return.

Willard, The Shack is a cool Philly place to go.

From the "Some Things Never Change" Department, here are some select quotes from that Aug. 30th, 2007 game thread:

denny b.: "Don't like the lineup today."

clout: "C'mon Ryno. Show Jack you're more than 20% better than Adam Dunn!" (Ryan proceded to hit a 2-run HR.)

75: "Is Scott Mathieson rehab going well?"

MG: "Prognosis negative." (After Mets began comeback.)

GM-Carson: "There's your f*cking manager of the year. All you retarded shitforbrains that suggested that now know you're a moron. Manuel may get these guys to play hard, but he can't manage." (After Mets made their 2nd comeback.)

JW: "Yup. Worst loss of the season in my book." (Even our intrepid leader gave up with it 10-8 in the 8th.)

CJ: "Where's bruceg when we need a declaration of defeat?"

Mike Cunningham:
"CHASE
UTLEY

YOU ARE THE MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" (After the game-winning single.)

Clout: The idea, not mine by the way (but floated by some and discussed by Stark, among other national writers), would be to trade Ibanez in the offseason, clear most (hopefully all) of his salary, and thus free up 8-10 mill in the payroll to help re-sign Werth, and then call up Brown next year. So your outfield would be Brown (or Brown/Francisco platoon)-Victorino-Werth (assuming they value Werth's defense in RF over Brown's).

It's not ideal, but Brown next year might give you close to Ibanez's production next year, and being able to keep Werth obviously makes that worth it. Brown-Victorino-Werth is far better than Ibanez-Victorino-Brown.

The idea is that if you're going to lose one of Ibanez or Werth, make it be Ibanez.

The only interleague play that matters is the All-Star game. I hate IL play as much as I hate the DH. What else is missing? Twi-night twinbills.

I'm with the posters that the nod to the Reading Eagle and the job change points to some corporate sponership for JW. If so, good for him, he deserves it.

Happy bday JW. I'm excited for the new Beerleaguer!

Ozark, I'm with you on IL play and the DH, but I love doubleheaders. There should be a lot more. More baseball in one day, and the upside would be the playoffs could start a little earlier.

A friend of mine had that on his tivo and we watched it a good half dozen times.
When it happened I was working at a bar in the city and the bar manager was a slimey mets fan whose girlfriend I had recently stolen. I was stuck on an afternooon shift that day and finished up just before the game ended. I hung around to watch the game and the place was going wild, as that jerkoff bar manager watched his season unravel. Needless to say that was a great summer and even better last Sunday of September.

With the Red Sox coming to town, I thought I would take a peek at Scott Lauber's blog at the Boston Herald. He has an interesting interview with Jamie Moyer about Jamie's reaction to being demoted to the pen last year and how he commiserates with Tim Wakefield who was just recently demoted.
Link:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/20100521jamie_moyer_commiserates_with_tim_wakefield/

Young Jamie has certainly risen to the occasion this season.

Jack, krukker: Thanx. That is indeed an exceptionally optimistic view, that 1. Werth is signable and 2. That someone would paid all $11M of Ibanez contract to free up money for Werth.

I place the odds of those two chips falling into place that way at Zero.

Willard, I haven't lived in LA since 2003, but the other Philly bar there is the Sports Harbor in Culver City / Venice. Definitely a lot more blue collar than the Shack (which is also great).

Whoever commented about the Mets pitching coach calling Maine a liar took that out of context. The full quote is not as bad:

"If he's throwing that way, then there's got to be something incorrect in that arm," Warthen said. "Something's not feeling correct. John's a habitual liar in a lot of ways as far as his own health. He's a competitor and a warrior. He wants to go out there and pitch. But we have to be smart enough to realize this guy isn't right, the ball's not coming out of his hand correctly."

Clout: Obviously, the trade has two aspects--salary and prospects. If the Phillies agreed to trade Ibanez for essentially nothing in return, they could probably get someone to eat 6-9 million of the deal. I agree that no one, in any scenario, is eating the full thing.

On Werth, what do you think he'll end up getting? 5/100 seems like the top to me. On the open market, I could see the Red Sox or Yankees giving him something close to that, but not much more. If we talked to him soon, or right at the end of the year, I think he'd sign here for around 5/90 or 4/80. He seems to like Philly, though I wouldn't blame him for hitting the open market and getting everything he can. More power to him.

Happy Birthday.

clout: Agree 100% that no one will take Ibanez and pay all of his contract. Only way that happens is if we include another player or prospect with positive value. Is this a plausible scenario... we place Ibanez on waivers and someone claims him and takes on his salary, a la Alex Rios? No way we could plan around that though.

To your other point, I disagree that Werth couldn't be signed. If Werth cares about winning, consider his suiters: Boston looks like a team on the decline, and the LA teams look like they could begin to decline as well. The Yankees surely would be an attractive destination, but the word is they will pursue Crawford and pass on Werth, since Crawford would help their lineup more. (Plus they'd make him shave his beard.) Philly is set up to be a strong contender for at least a few years, and Werth himself would contribute toward that.

If Werth cares only about money, then sure, we can't compete with the Yankees and possibly Boston. But with some creative accounting and Werth agreeing to a backloaded deal, I wouldn't say it's impossible.

Jack: My son asked me the same question yesterday. I told him 5/100.

krukker: I agree. When I said the odds of BOTH those things falling exactly as some want (all of Ibanez money off the books and it's used to resign Werth) I didn't mean to imply that ONE of them couldn't happen. I absolutely think Werth could be signed and perhaps the Phils can conjure up a backloaded deal. But I think it will take 5/100 to do it.

JW is Conlin. I'm Buzz Bissinger.

Posted by: clout

And I'm Lake Fred, I've heard.

I see Valdez has made it back to LV safely. *Phew.*

I'm former commentor mayornutter, maybe.

JW is Conlin. I'm Buzz Bissinger.

Posted by: clout

And I'm Lake Fred, I've heard.

Posted by: Andy

Since we're all revealing our alter-egos. I'm bay area phan.

CJ: Perfect!

The comments to this entry are closed.

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