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Saturday, May 15, 2010

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Raul officially has a 100 OPS+ for the year now...woohoo, he's league average offensively!!!


Nice mug.

"Funny yet meaningless stat: Since 2006, when Moyer starts the Phils are 63-43 (.594) compared to 72-51 when Hamels starts (.585).

I wouldn't agree that it's meaningless. It obviously doesn't mean Moyer is better than Hamels, but it's hard to overlook the fact that he has a 52-33 record and has never had a single-season winning pct. below .545 since coming to the Phillies.

In the late 80s, Dave Stewart had four 20-win seasons in a row for the A's, even though he never had the glossiest ERA. His typical performance had some similarities to Moyer's typical performance. He'd usually get knocked around for a few runs early in the game, then settle down and pitch 7 or 8 innings. A run is a run no matter when it's scored. But it seems like, if a pitcher can get his bad innings out of the way early, & then settle down & pitch zeroes, his team has a better chance to win than if he pitches zeroes for 4 or 5 innings but melts down later in the game.

Speaking of Dave Stewart, I don't recall seeing his name listed the other day when people were coming up with their all-time teams of players the Phillies got rid of.

NEPP and BAP: Does this suggest that Moyer is simply more consistent than Hamels.

I agree that a run is a run, but being down 2 in the 2nd isn't the same as down 2 in the 7th. Pitching happens in context. When and how runs are allows counts. It hasn't been broken down into a neat stat yet, but it counts. Games are real. So are wins and losses. Who gets credit for the W or L obviously isn't that important. But it is the point of the game when it's all over. You can't lose sight of that.

Dukes: He probably IS more consistent in his game-to-game performance, but he's consistently mediocre. Hamels is more up and down but, even when he's down, his stat lines tend to look like a typical Jamie Moyer game. So I don't think that Moyer's superior consistency can explain the better win totals.

Here's what I suspect, but it's just a theory. Consider where they're slotted in the Phillies' rotation. Hamels has generally been a No. 1 or No. 2; Moyer a No. 4 or No. 5. This obviously doesn't mean they will always be matched up against the other team's similarly-slotted starer. Moyer, for instance, pitched against Santana, the Mets' ace, and Wolf, the Brewers' No. 2. But teams do try to adjust their rotations to maximize the number of starts made by their ace pitcher. So I would tend to think that, over the course of a full season, a No. 5 starter will, more often than not, be matched up against one of the opposing team's back-end starters, while an ace or No. 2 will, more often than not, be matched up against one of the opposing team's better starters. This would explain why the Phillies always seem to get a lot of run support for Moyer.

Moyer is among the winiest pitchers in MLB since he came to the Phils in '06 with 52 wins (he is either 5th/6th) but he also enjoyed some of the best run support too in the NL since then too.

Last year it fell off a bit because the offense swooned during the summer but Moyer has enjoyed well above 5 runs/GS since appearing in a Phils' uniform.

If he can finish the year with say 12 wins and an ERA around 4.75, that will be fine even if he is the 4th starter most of th year

2007-2010:

Hamels: ERA+ 121
Moyer: ERA+ 97

Wins are relatively meaningless as a measure of a pitcher's performance...Tyler Clippard leads the NL in wins right now, what can we determine from that?

Hamels has been a far superior pitcher to Moyer for the last several seasons, and the fact that Moyer gets lucky with run support doesn't change that.

Some early interesting trends with Moyer:

- He is using his fastball alot less this season so far (47% vs. 59% last year) and gone back to using alot more of his cutter & changeup (46% of the time vs. just 33% last year). I should note though that Fan Graphs classification seems off for Moyer and that he didn't throw 4-seem fastballs nearly that often according to 2 other sources. It was 50% and 51% respectively.

This is more in line with '07 & '08 Moyer who was more of an offspeed guy who mixed in his fastball less well below 50% of the time.

Probably a wise move because if Moyer misses even slightly with his fastball, it gets crushed as if often did last year. Might even be wise to mix in his fastball a bit less.

- NL hitters have been progressively swinging at more of his pitches since he has come to the NL especially out of the zone.

If hitters do swing at something in the zone, they are going to make contact & almost certainly put it in play. Up to a ridiculous 94% this year so far vs. a league average of just 88%.

Interestingly enough though, hitters are making less contact on stuff out of the zone though.

- Moyer's K rate has continued to decline each year in a Phils' uniform and has reached an anemic 4.6 K/9 this year. Leaves little margin for error.

He has surprised mainly be keeping his BB/9 really low 1.6 BB/9 and keeping his H/9 at 8.6. The H/9 though is bound to creep up as hitters only .234 BABIP so far. That will jump at least 50 points and possibly a bit higher as the season goes on.

Outlook:

- Didn't dig enough into the numbers but it is hard to tell if Moyer is throwing less fastballs and more changeups/cutters because he really has changed his pitch selection or if simply has been ahead in the count more. My bet is that it is a combo of the two. Interesting to see how that plays out over the next few months.

If he can continue to get guys to chase his motley assortment of offspeed stuff out of the zone especially earlier in the count, he should continue to be a serviceable starter all year. If not and he has to come in the zone with a fastball, it will be 'Home Run Derby.'

Moyer has had some bad luck on HRs leaving the park but he has likely benefited more from that .234 BABIP and 8.6 H/9. That is going to last and will jump notably. So figure his H/9 creeps down a bit but is offset by a notable jump in H/9.

Basically no Phils' starter has been hurt more by pitching more at CBP though than Moyer. His ERA is a nearly a full run higher at CBP (5.05 vs. 4.09) than on the road in a Phils' uniform due in part to the fact his H/9 rates jumps notably at CBP.

My bet is that Moyer continues to be a serviceable starter especially in parks & teams that are long-ball challenged but is a below average starter at CBP.

It is also wrong for broadcasters to call Moyer a slop pitcher. I think of slop pitchers as guys who throw a ton of offspeed stuff but has modest control. Moyer throws slop but he has very impeccable control. Basically he is a historical oddity because you aren't going to see 47-year old men with his kind of offspeed command.

PTB has been DFA'd by the Rays

Hamels ' problem is that right handed batters are desroying him to the tune of .496 vs. .135 for lefthanded batters. Hamels would worth a lot of money to any team facing the phillies! But as a pitcher facing righthanders he has become totally ineffective.

It's a shame that it ended this way for Pat, but then again he's got a WFC Ring & $9 Million still coming to him courtesy of Tampa, so I'm not exactly crying in my beer over it.

Requiem For Pat Thread ==>

am I a bad person for repeatedly watching that guy get absolutely clocked by Raul's homer?

PTB has been DFA'd by the Rays

The Philadelphia Phillies' 2010 season is the 128th season in the history of the franchise. The team will attempt to defend its status as National League champions after appearing in the 2009 World Series.

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