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Wednesday, May 19, 2010

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Sounds like Villar, Hewitt & James have The Wright Stuff (55 SO, 141 AB).

To finalize my thoughts RE: Halladay and pitch counts:
Charlie has the objective of winning the WS. In order to do this he MUST know if Doc can handle large pitch counts over a 6 or 7 game stretch. If he can, great. If not, he'll have to account for this during the stretch time.

We know Cole cannot pitch complete game after complete game at this point in his career. So even if he is pitching well, Charlie knows he cannot count on him over 3 complete series. He must find out if he can count on Doc like he was able to count on Lee.

A secondary objective is Charlie needs to know what will happen if he asks Doc if he can get the next guy. If Doc says yes, but cannot, that tells Charlie something. If he says no, he's gassed, that tells him something. If he says yes but can, that tells him yet something else.

Personally, I'd rather Charlie find these things out with a 4 game lead in May than during the NLCS.

Hewitt is striking out in 35% of his ABs in A ball and has a sub .400 SLG pct? So much for the early improvement . . .

Hewitt is one of those guys that he has decent numbers this summer I would love to see him thrown in a trade package to bring back a reliever. Definitely a 'sell high' kind of like moving Savery would have been last year.

OK, so they strike out once every three ABs. But they're cut, they're athletic and they look great in their unis.

From the last thread:

"CJ: This is really a bunch of worrying for absolutely no reason."

Pretty much sums up Beerleaguer, eh?

Damn JW. You couldn't have waited on this? Pitchcountgate was just starting to get interesting.

Also interesting, Nick Hernandez is the nephew of insane MLB umpire and Julio Lugo nemesis Angel Hernandez.

As Phillies fans, we have very high expectations,and rightly so, and anything less than a WFC and there will be disappointment. However, I can see the posts now. Doc loses the 7th game of the WS to (whoever) and someone will say, "If only he didnt throw 132 pitches against the lowly Pirates in May!"...

The Zo Zone points out that Doc (111.8 ppg) is just third in baseball in pitches per start behind Jimenez and Verlander. He's only averaging about 4 more pitches per game than he did in 2007 and 2008... and about 6 more pitches per game than he did last season. That's less than one pitch per inning.

Color me worried....

CJ: I've come to the conclusion that you are correct about pitchgate. Until you're wrong, and then you'll still be right.

CJ - I don't think Halladay is going to throw 280 IP during the regular season but if you think this team is going to make another deep postseason run yeah I do think he will be at least 280 IP if not more especially if the Phils get to the WS.

MG: Are you suggesting the Phils should limit his regular season workload because he'll be taking on an additional workload in the postseason?

(responding to a post from last thread) @aksmith -- you are correct about the dangerous innings for a pitchers health: pitching when gassed, or the high leverage innings. Those are typically innings when mechanics fail, pitcher compensates and gets hurt. See Myers, Brett in the Barajas game.

Mechanics is Dubee's responsibility. Not Charlies. (It's not charlies because he's admittedly said he doesn't watch for things like that.) Now, obviously CM can overrule Dubes, its likely the dugout was completely comfortable with Halladay.

The only empirical evidence I've seen regarding pitch counts is just the pitchers effectiveness once they hit 100 pitches goes down. That seems to be a no-brainer right.

As for Halladay... he's not Cole Hamels. He's not one of those kids who was encased in glass and limited in innings (ok ok some of that was due to Cole breaking an arm in high school and injured in the minors). This guy has consistently shown his durability. Is Charlie kicking the tires and letting it all out on the straightaway? Yeah, probably.

But at the end of the day, Charlie has Dubee and Doc to give him the feedback on whether he's done or not. Maybe Chooch has to pull a Geena Davis and step and says he's cooked. [Yes, I just referenced A League Of Their Own, cue: G-Town Dave to call me a nancy boy or a butter cup.]

My only issue with Doc going that long was nothing to do with pitch counts. It had EVERYTHING to do with not taking the opportunity to get runs. The 7th inning required a bold decision. Letting Hallady bunt. Was not.


What was Cole's Innings Pitched including the WS & playoffs in 08?

Pretty close to that if I remember.

More important than these prospects and pitchcountgate: Will someone please stuff a sock in Sarge's mouth then next time he calls Halladay "Holiday?" Please! I know it's a small thing but it drives me out of my gourd.

The best (worst) was the day the camera moved in on Halladay talking to Brian Schneider in the dugout. That became a discussion between "Holiday and Snyder."

Doesn't this moron travel on the plane with these guys? Talk to them before and after games? Doesn't he feel the slightest need to actually know the name of the best pitcher in baseball?

Cole Hamels threw 262 innings during the regular and post-season in 2008.

CJ - Yeah in certain cases especially when he is going for a meaningless CG.

I don't understand why so many people act like it was the right move to leave Halladay in to bunt in the 7th or have him start the 9th with a rested bullpen. Both moves may have been 'gut' moves but the odds favored other decisions especially PH with Gload in the 7th against Meeks instead of having Halladay try to bunt against a guy who throws in the mid-90s.

Tim Wakefield will start on Sunday as Josh Beckett goes to the DL...

With a name like "Hamm", you're reminding me more of Rosie O'Donnell than Geena Davis.

Salisbury (via Twitter): "Utley will play"

I'm presuming he means Utley will play tonight. Steak is taking economy of his allotted 140 Characters a bit far.

Utley back tonight, Rollins hitting 6th.

Zolecki (via Twitter): "Utley back in the lineup. Victorino hitting first. Rollins sixth."

I like it! :-)

I don't know if this is temporary until Jimmy gets comfy, or if it's a "let's see how this works" move, but I really like it.

I'm among those who wondered all of last year why Vic wasn't batting first and Rollins, 6th or 7th. I'm a relative newcomer here, which explains why none of you will remember me saying so at any time.

Wow...

Victorino (CF), Polanco (3B), Utley (2B), Howard (1B), Werth (RF), Rollins (SS), Ibanez (LF), Ruiz (C) and Moyer (P).

I think many of you owe Charlie an apology... you know, those of you who said, "It makes too much sense for Charlie to leave Vic at leadoff."

Let me add that a lineup that has Chooch and Jimmy at the back end is a lineup I would not like to face, if I were a National League pitcher. We should get plenty of productivity out of the whole 8.

Pat Burrell has cleared waivers. For a mere $300,000 he can be had.

On the one hand, you can't really put him in the OF anymore. Plus, it's questionable whether he can still hit and we don't really have any roster openings anyway. But he sure makes great fodder for contentious Beerleaguer arguments. That alone would make him worth the $300,000. Maybe Beerleaguer can take up a collection fund.

Jonathan Singleton instantaneously has become the best player on the Lakewood team at 18 years old. 4/4 BB/K ratio which is great to see as an 18-year old. Small sample size of course but he had 18/13 BB/K ratio in 100 ABs last year so it looks like that should continue.

Cholly's been reading Beerleaguer, including my posts about putting another right-handed bat between Howard & Ibanez.

It actually wouldn't surprise me if some of these guys do read Beerleaguer. I know if I were a major league player, I'd be awfully curious to read everyone's comments about how much I suck.

That lineup, one through eight, is pretty damn tough.

I'd be willing to contribute a buck to sign Burrell.

So's I can trash him if he strikes out and avoid any game threads where he happens to do well.

Say, clout, how many millions did you say the Phils should pay to re-sign Burrell? I keep asking you that question, but I guess I missed your response.

CJ: I feel confident when I state that I, for one, give credit to Charlie for making a good decision more frequently than you are willing to admit when he makes a poor one.

I would donate to the PtB fund as well, but unlike Phlipper, I would root for him to do well. Someone mentioned it earlier, but why not have him in the Matt Stairs role off the bench?

phlipper: There were probably a few odd-balls out there who were against BOTH the Ibanez deal & the idea of resigning Burrell. But, for the most part, Beerleaguers fell into 2 distinct camps: those who thought we should resign Burrell & those who were in favor of the Ibanez signing. I'll fess up to being in the former camp, but I'll also say that, as long as Ibanez is hitting .230, I don't think the people in the other camp have standing to gloat right now.

Ibanez was certainly a huge success for one year (or more like a half a year). But if the cost of that success is 2 bad years (plus a stud prospect blocked from the big league squad), then that 3-year, $30M contract will turn out to be every bit as regrettable as the 2-year, $16M contract that Tampa gave to Burrell. The jury is still out.

FWIW, Ibanez was the #6 best outfielder in baseball last year according to VORP, and is currently #22 this year.

There is no comparison to the gaffe the Burrell contract turned out to be. More years, and more money, but at least Ibanez was a valuable player for (so far) a year and a half.

MG: I agree. Though, i'm not that worried about Halladay's workload, but leaving him to throw 132 pitches against the Pirates is pretty nuts. Doesn't deserve a "gate" quite yet.

Look at the Burrell/Ibanez comparison this way:
According to Fangraphs, Burrell has been worth a negative $3MM last year and this, while earning $16MM, for a negtive $19MM oopsie.

Ibanez has been worth 17.3MM last year and 0.3 MM so far this one, for a total of 17.6MM to date, while his contact will cost $30MM. So for these deals to be just as regrettable as each other, Ibanez will have to provide a negative worth of $6MM for the next year and a half.

Not likely, I would say.

BAP - I really had no intent of dragging the Ibanez/Burrell debate out once again. Honest. Just trying for a joke.

But just by way of explanation - FWIW, I was on record as saying that I thought trading off Ibanez for Burrell was a lateral move - so I was wrong also.

My only bone of contention is with posters who fell into two categories while criticizing the Ibanez signing and calling me an "idiot" for saying that I thought the signing wasn't a mistake:

Those who said that Ibanez's greater age was a better predictor of physical decline than their relative injury history/level of conditioning.

Those who trashed the signing because they felt that Ibanez being LH would create problems for the Phillies lineup.

Both opinions have some logical basis. The only problem is that some folks tend to confuse their opinions with "facts" or a reflection of their genius.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/05/bad-back-sends-josh-beckett-to-the-disabled-list.html.php

beckett to the dl. we won't see him this weekend. and torre can take his protest and shove it. [i actually agreed with girardi. but now that he's wrong. shove it.]

meant girardi not torre. torre can stick it too. :)

Pass on the Bat even at $300k. He hasn't hit in nearly 1+ years and has too many limitations at this point to even stick on the bench as a RHP PH option.

BTY - Stairs has been horrendous in the early going primarily as a PH for SD. A line of .154/.207/.231 with 0 HRs in 26 ABs. Even thought the Padres are under a real budget pinch, the rumors are will get DFA soon if his numbers don't pick up.

philipper - Granted its early but Ibanez is hitting just .189 vs. LHP. My bet is that his numbers revert to his career norms and that his OPS numbers vs. LHP are at least 60-70 pts lower than his numbers against RHP this year.

Age does come into it because players in their mid- to late-30s can fail off a cliff in terms of productivity especially from a power perspective.

Yo, new thread.

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