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Saturday, May 15, 2010

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Re: The last thread, Burrell suffered a bit from "Von Hayes Syndrome." This is when a prospect is wildly overhyped and then incurs fans' wrath for most of his career when he doesn't turn out as advertised, despite being an above-average player.

Burrell was a number one draft pick and stardom was forecast by all. His 11-year career average stands at .253, his OPS+ at 115. That makes him a good player, but not the superstar that was projected.

Von Hayes' career OPS+, incidentally, was 113.

Pat the Bat didn't do himself any favors either, in that regard, by having a career year at 25.

Clout - That is a very good point and pretty apt comparison.


I would be willing to bet though if you polled people in 5 or 10 years whether they liked Burrell or Hayes more and who they thought was a better player here that Burrell would win hands down even though the numbers don't bare that out.

Burrell just had the benefit of playing on much more talented teams than Hayes did and going out on a much higher note. Phils traded Hayes in the middle of the '91 season and I remember the reaction as largely one of complete indifference.

MG: You're certainly right about the relative talent levels of Hayes' Phillies teams vs. Pat's. Another thing working against him was, & is, the legacy of "five-for-one". Incidentally, the two players The Phils received from the Angels in return for Hayes were Kyle Abbott & (drum roll, please) ... Rube, Jr. Von is currently manager of the Camden Riversharks, by the way.

"Nobody calls out Beerleaguer's mental midgets better than klaus:

"Well awh, a few threads ago we learned that everything that the phillies have ever done was correct, because in 2008 the team won the World Series and in 2009 the pennant. Gillik's signing of Adam Eaton, by the way, is vindicated."


Hahahaha, nice of you two guys to pick up on sarcasm....oh, wait.

I have only the dimmest memories of Von Hayes. I do remember that he was despised. Was he a decent defender?

Actually it's remarkable how similar Burrell and Hayes were, offensively. Take their peak years (25-31):

Burrell: .257/.371/.490
Hayes: .277/.370/.443

Roughly 3 WAR players.

JW, I suspr=ect Charlie has been letting Raul play so he can work his way out of the funk he was in. I wonder if Raul had been at his May numbers all season whether or not charlie would have given a couple of extra starts to Benny Frank?

Then again, it's Charlie.

Same lineup as last night. Charlie loves to play his regulars as much as possible, he's already got 2 subs in the lineup & Raúl has been hitting pretty well lately -- I'm not surprised he'll be back out there today. The lack of playing time for Francisco might also be indicative of what Charlie thinks of his abilities.

AWH: I picked up the sarcasm and merely extended it.

Just noticed the following Tweet from Zolecki, RE: no BenFran: "Oh, yeah. We asked. Manuel said it's tough to play bench guys with so many regulars out."

Dumb question -- does MLB black everyone out on Saturdays even if your area is not showing that particular game?

joe l: Yes. Fox has exclusive Saturday rights, so no mlbtv is available.

T-Mac on the national broadcast. Awesome. Just what I was hoping for.

Joe, as a general rule, yes. That's what sucks about Saturday day games on Fox. If they dont show the Phils where you live, they wont show it on any other channel.

Somewhere, Ed Wade is counting down the days until he can sign Burrell...

Nice job taking advantage of that extremely poor decision by Zaun.

I'm starting to re-think this MLBtv thing. I haven't been able to watch a Phils weekend game in three weeks.

Another RBI by Vic. Still failing in the leadoff spot.

Skunked by the wall again.

Chris Narveson, welcome to the Beerleaguer reverse jinx.

Vic has turned it around this month.

Not to be an MLB apologist, but 31/34 Phils games have been either available on MLB.TV or on ESPN. The Fox thing is annoying, but it's not like they're blacking out a ton of games.

Breaking News:

Miller Park does not, in fact, have a "retractable dome". Turns out a pair of Prince Fielder's uniform pants snagged on the upper deck as they were being lowered into the stadium via construction crane. Management decided it would be easier to leave them there than attempt cost-prohibitive a removal operation.

Sophist, I just bitch about it because I can never hang out on a Saturday afternoon and watch the game, and I have the DirectV Baseball package. No biggie, since I can watch the other 6 days a week.

Interesting ...

Zolecki (via Twitter): Scorer said if a ball hits off the wall, hits a player and goes over the wall it should be a home run. That's what happened to Utley's ball ... Except it was ruled a ground-rule double.

Sounding more & more like the umps pooched that call, & cost the Phils at least 2 runs.

G-Town, did it bounce off a player?

MLBtv != ESPN especially if you don't happen to be sitting in front of a television. Like for me most spring and summer weekends.

Old Phan: According to Franzke and Wheels on radio, it came off the wall, hit Hart's foot/shoe and was lifted over the wall.

That's odd. Sorry I didnt see that.

I didn't know that should be a HR, seems a little odd to me that hitting the wall, coming back in and hitting a player before going out would be a HR.

Missed a lot while on the phone with my mother, catching up. I did see Blanton make McGehee look really silly on a SO about an inning ago, however. Seems to be pitching well, is that accurate?

Old Phan: Looking at the replay, it did seem to bounce off of Hart's foot & over the wall. He even gesture that it had to Edmonds while Charlie was discussing the play w/ the umpires. I hope it doesn't end up mattering.

I saw it on replay, and it was odd. Just didn't know it was a HR in that case.

I feel bad for Pat Burrell. He just didn't have a good time in Tampa, and he's pretty young to be washed up. I did recently hear that the average MLB player's career is only 4 years. Anyone know if that's true?

MLB Official Rules, 6.09:

(g) Any bounding fair ball is deflected by the fielder into the stands, or over or under a fence on fair or foul territory, in which case the batter and all runners shall be entitled to advance two bases;

(h) Any fair fly ball is deflected by the fielder into the stands, or over the fence into foul territory, in which case the batter shall be entitled to advance to second base; but if deflected into the stands or over the fence in fair territory, the batter shall be entitled to a home run. However, should such a fair fly be deflected at a point less than 250 feet from home plate, the batter shall be entitled to two bases only.

The Rules are not clear on this situation. I suppose one could argue that the ball "bounded" off of the wall, onto Hart's foot & over the wall, thereby making the call of a Ground Rule Double correct. Barring that interpretation, however, it seems Utley should have been awarded a Home Run.

I'd say Kentucky Joe is eatin' innings today. 4 innings; minimum batters faced; 43 pitches.

No tears shed here for Pat the Bat. He has made a ton of money for being an average ball player (Slightly above average bat and below average defense and speed).
Most over rated player on the internet. Fantasy players, and moneyball fanatics put him on a pedestal that other fans do not.

GT: "Bounding" has to mean hitting the ground.

The average MLB players career may be 4 years, but the average duration for a 250+ HR player is much longer.

Certainly possible that Burrell is no longer a productive MLB player though.

An average ballplayer? You must be kidding.

Burrell was never an AS (although one year he probably should have been), but average he was not.

Hope: I'm assuming that, too, as the Rules chose to specify "a ... fly ball" in 6.09 (h), whereas they did not in 6.09 (g). However, the dictionary definition of "bounding" is simply "to move by leaping", or "to spring back on or as if on collision or impact with another body". Unless the Rules specify that a "bounding ball" necessarily involves the ground (which it might, I haven't scoured the entire book), there's some unintentional grey area.

Blanton has stayed away from his FB all day, which is sitting at 86-87, and thrown 29 sinkers and 20 changeups. He's only thrown 6 FB today - he usually throws it ~60% of the time.

Weird play in RF aside, the Phils have let Narveson off the hook way too often this afternoon. They need to drive in some runs & get him out of the game.

How many times has Charlie called on Blanton to bunt since he's been back, & how many times has Blanton failed to do so? Either make him work at it until he gets it right, or stop asking him to do something he cannot do.

THANK YOU, VIC!!!!!!!!!!!! :-D

Are we sure Vic is doing his job as a leadoff hitter?

Speaking of letting a guy pitch one inning too many...

I meant to say "is not"

Doohickey: But he's only thrown 125 pitches! The guy's a horse! Let him go for the CG!

If Narveson had done that in the first place he could've saved himself eight pitches.

130 pitches in 6 innings? Damn.

Grace and TMac are just brutal to listen to on the Fox broadcast. Aren't quiet for a second, cliches galore, lots of unneccessaru hyperbole, and little/ni insight on the actual game. Just went MLB audio at the gym.

wow, never thought i would see vic have 10 more RBIs than utley at any point in the season...

Hoov! Hoov!

See? Blanton was born to mash!

Hoover! Damn!

Pretty much the only guy Utley has driven in this year (besides himself) is Polanco (7 times). Vic has driven in Werth, Ruiz, and Castro 13 times.

To this point, Vic is hitting squat with the bases empty and tons with men on base.

RISP: .366/.386/.732 (44 PA)
Empty: .188/.228/.354

leadoff game: .200/.231/.320
leadoff inning: .180/.206/.361

High OBP guys late in the order, and a leadoff man who only hits when men are on - that's a recipe for Vic having more RBI than Utley. Vic has more PA with RISP than Utley does.

Hoping for a Vic triple.

Vic is tearing it up right now. I hope moving back down to 7th doesn't throw him off, at least not too much.

Of course, Vic could just as easily not be hitting with RISP.

"RISP: .366/.386/.732 (44 PA)
Empty: .188/.228/.354"

Not sustainable of course, but my god it makes me salivate at the prospect of putting him back in the 7 hole

Wow. Complete robbery. That was a beautiful play by Gerut.

Mash it up Phils! This is beautiful to watch. Brewers have got nothin'.

That wasn't beautiful.

I guess an easy, bullpen-saving win was too much to ask. Dammit, Joe ...

amazing to me that blanton has run out of gas around this point in every game he's pitched so far...yet he's been left out there an inning too long every game, too. the guy is just not ready to pitch deep into games yet. it should have been obvious after the HR last inning and the near-bomb by craig freakin' counsell. so how can this not be evident to those in the dugout?

Yeah Polly. Huge play. Big up Phils!!!

Joe has consumed is fill of innings today and can't keep the ball down.

Nuts

It's a shame Polanco can't field. And I'll never understand why a player would choose to slide into first when you can overrun the bag.

It's hittin' season.

Forgot who said it the other day on here but they are dead on:

You can set a clock on when Blanton will run into trouble at both ~50 pitches and ~90 pitches.

Blanton has looked more like the guy who reall struggled the first 7 weeks of the season last year than the guy who pitched so well during the middle of the summer. Hopefully Blanton will round into shape as the season wears on a bit.

Now we saw why Narveson went ~130 pitches. This Brewers' bullpen is just plain bad.

Dobbs now 1-15 as a PH and the team is now just hitting .130 (6-46) as a team. Phils are dead last in the NL in nearly every PH category early on including AVG, OBP, SLG, XHB, and ISO.

@MG: That was me but I can't take credit. This is more or less the same thing we saw from KY Joe last year.

MG - You have to think that those PH numbers are a sample size problem more than anything else.

re Blanton - He was an out away, but was showing warning signs. I'd expect his endurance to increase. Manual said he's in near spring training form. I was noticing that his FB sat around 86-87 for the first five innings and didn't seem to hit 90 until the 6th.

Looked it up and the Phils' pitchers were hitting .143 (11-78) coming into today and that went up a bit after Blanton went 1-3.

Sophist - Yeah you have to figure it have to improve because Gload & Dobbs can't be this bad as PH .151 (5-33).

Still, I don't have much confidence in Francisco as a PH especially if he doesn't play and the other guys (Schneider, Castro, Valdez, etc) aren't going to do much.

The Brewers are the DBacks with worse pitching.

and worse defense

Other thing that was interesting to see today;

Howard vs. Naverson.

Wheels made a great point that even though Naverson wasn't throwing a single pitch that was middle-in all day to any of the lefties in the Phils' lineup and wasn't giving Howard fastballs, he kept swinging at the same cutters/sliders off the plate off-day long until he finally took a walk.

Said Howard is going to pound mistake pitches (especially fastballs) like Wolf gave him last night but his overall numbers are going to lag when you are facing lefties so often because opposing managers bring in a lefty every chance they get against him.

60 ABs, 11-60 (.183) with a sub .600 OPS against LHP so far this year.

Howard can't hit most lefties, but remember that he also hit .207/.298/.356 against them last year so his .196/.224/.393 line going into today isn't all that shocking.

In his career, he has shown the ability to get hot against lefties. When he's really swinging late summer, he hits everybody.

Ugh. Herndon he can't even get through a single inning with 5 runs.

Would have been nice to not have to have used Contreras because he almost certainly won't be available tomorrow (ditto on Lidge).

Can we see someone other than David Herndon now? Anyone?

Looks like Herndon didn't have it today.

Herndon almost never has it. There is a reason he gives up hits by the truckload even though a lot of them are ground balls - he almost never misses a bat and throws a ton of pretty straight fastballs in the zone.

Hitters are going to get pretty of good hacks and make some really good contact against a guy like him at the MLB level.

That was a huge K on Weeks.

Contreras is younger (38) than Counsell (39)? I think not.

Sweet.

Counsell's body language read SO looking or weak GB that whole AB.

Contreras' first career save.

Very nice!

Nice job by Contreras to come in there and slam the door on Weeks & Counsell. Anyone wasn't pretty but the Phils just outslugged the Brewers again & beat up on their bullpen.

Brewers have hit 6 HRs in their first 2 games yet they have lost both games and been outscored by 8 runs. Strange series so far.

Good chance for the sweep with Hamels against the throughly mediocre Davis tomorrow night.

It didn't need to be so sketchy in the end but a good experience for Contreras. 1st save ever. 2 good k's and the win and series is in the bag. Go Phils!!

This Brewers team reminds me of the Phils' team earlier this decade - a pretty good offensive with some really good players but not enough overall talent around them and too many questions on their pitching staff to really contend.

Contreras this month

6.2 IP, 96 pitches, .806 WHIP, 6 K, 0 R.

This was his first day pitching back-to-back since the 10th.

Props to Valdez and Hoover today too. They were on base early and often today.

5-10, 4 R, 2 RBIs.

Vic needed somebody to drive in.

Doesn't seem like it but Phils are now 10-3 in May including 8-2 in their last 2 and having their usual uptick in the standings once May rolls around on the calender the past several years.

Coming into today Vic was tied with Howard in AB with RISP. Pretty crazy.

Funny to look at the run differentials in each division in the NL.

Phila +56
Flo +10
Nym +10
Atl +10
Was -12

Stl +32
Cin -7
Mil -10
Chc -15
Hou -59
Pit -92

Much closer race in this regard in the West.

Sf +45
SD +44
Col +25
Lad +2
Ari -39 (despite 2nd most RS in division)

MG, You don't think so? Since that Pelfrey start, it's been pretty easy sailing. Think the Howard contract, the Madson and Lidge experiences, have taken away from that. Coming into today the team ERA was around 2.60 and the team OPS was ~.890 for the month of May. Most of these games weren't even close.

Check the tweets, Lidge to DL, Bastardo back.

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