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Friday, May 14, 2010

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This would be a good game for a BL meetup. Are tickets for the game sold out?

Just a quick plug for the book. I read it when it first came out, and I think most BLers would enjoy it. There is a summary of each and every game of the WS season, including some BL type comments and perceptions from Jason for the games. Also interspersed are a variety of comments from the BL peanut gallery over the course of the season.

There are also interview type segments on facets of the Phillies organization that most do not even think about, like say, the food vendors, the guys who manage the players' entrance on game days, the Phanatic, etc.

Candidly, there is so much here, it might almost overwhelm a casual fan, but I don't think many readers of this blog are exactly "casual" fans.

Reading the game by game accounts really brought back some of the up and down emotions of that crazy season.

Well worth a place in a Phils' fans collection.

Kudos on the donation of proceeds, JW. Enough of a reason to get me to loosen my ordinarily vice-like death grip on my wallet and pick one up.

FYI For Phils Season Ticket Holders (All Plans):

Tickets for the Toronto series are now being sold. Check the email associated w/ your account, or log in to your account at Phillies.com & scroll down to the Toronto Series link. For what it's worth, tickets are being offered at your Season Ticket prices, which are a few bucks cheaper than they usually would be (depending on Section).

Would you really want a beerleaguer meet up at this point? A year or two ago, sure. Now I'd rather go through a Supreme Court confirmation hearing.

Sorry to be the guy who harps on this.

If there's every going to be a BL meetup, each BLer must carry with them a list of which players they "like" and "hate" and how they feel about every trade that Gillick/Amaro have made. Anyone who has a mixed opinion on something will face expulsion. Those wearing a Tuffy Goosewich jersey are admitted free of charge.

Breaking News!

PS will be attending the Phestival, too, signing copies of his flyer "If The Game Ended After The 7th Inning: Titles Won By The '07-'09 NY Mets". A blue & orange asterisk sticker for the cover of JW's book will be provided free w/ purchase. All proceeds benefit the Bailout Field Attendance Is Declining Rapidly, But We Still Gotta Pay Bobby Bonilla Fund.

Mets do lead the decline in something: League Attendance decrease!

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/sports/baseball/14attendance.html?hp

"After 22 home games, attendance at Citi Field is down 6,852 fans a game, the largest decline by number in Major League Baseball. That translates to an average of 31,892 fans at games this season compared with 38,744 last season."

GTown Dave - The annual Dan Duquette award for "More Days in 1st Place (2007 season)" plague will be presented by the Mets at your event.

BB - If you defend the Abreu trade, do you have to wear a red "Letter A" on your shirt?

MG: My favorite part(s) of the above article:

Dave Howard, the Mets’ executive vice president for business operations, blamed the early-season decline on bad weather in April, the team’s disappointing play in recent years and the economic downturn. (The weather in April was warmer and drier than normal in the New York area.)

Mets players profess optimism about the weeks ahead. "I’m sure it’s been the weather," shortstop Jose Reyes said. "It’s no big deal. The crowds will come. The fans still love us."

MG: You signify your support for the Abreu trade by having JW toss your autographed copy of his book within a few feet of where you're standing, & actually moving a few steps in an effort to catch it.

MG, you probably meant "plaque" but "plague" is much more accurate.

"...having JW toss your autographed copy of his book within a few feet of where you're standing, & actually moving a few steps in an effort to catch it."

Unless Jason's toss is within 10 feet of any wall, in which case you allow the book to drop to the floor, then carefully pick it up.

Pat Gillick did a lot of very good things for the Phillies, but it truly amazes me that there are still "supporters" of the Abreu trade.

Just got my tix for the Sunday Blue Jays home/road game. Should be fun, although I really hope we don't have to witness another team get a walk-off win in our park.

Oswalt, like Berkman, is already ready to jump ship. Perhaps Rube can interest Ed Wade in 3 "hot" former Seattle prospects in exchange:

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?id=3191&sport=MLB

curt: It wouldn't be fair to take advantage of Rube like that. The Phillies should throw in Valdez, too.

bap: Speaking of the Abreu trade, Jesus Sanchez pitched a complete game last night for Clearwater, 1 ER and 8 Ks. The jury is still out!

Actually bap, with the benefit of hindsight it amazes me that there are any critics left of the Abreu "trade." You can speculate that they might have won pennants in 2007, 2008, and 2009 with Abreu, but you know they won without him.

curt: I usually agree with your cynical outlook, but is that a serious argument or are you just being facetious? Because, by that line of logic, it was also crazy to get rid of Eric Bruntlett, since we won 2 NL Championships & a World Series with him.

BAP- I disagree. The proper analogy would be to say it was not a mistake to have Eric Bruntlett on the roster for those years. That is much more debatable.

bap: Not quite. Curt's point is that, we KNOW that after the Abreu trade we ended up winning 3 NL East titles and a WS. So based on that, if you could go back in time, would you undo the Abreu trade? Only a crazy person or a Met fan would say yes.
That's irrelevant to whether or not we got value out of the Abreu trade (Jesus Sanchez is our last dim hope), and whether we got value out of the money we saved by trading him (Adam Eaton, so most certainly not).

bap?? That may be the worst effort at an analogy I've ever seen.

I'm with Brian G.

Abreu was an an everyday, veteran "leader" on the team. Burntlet was a role player.

Strange that the Yankees also won a world series after Abreu left...I'm being somewhat sarcastic.

Brian G.: Umm, YES, if I could go back in time, I would undo the Abreu trade -- which would also have the collateral effect of undoing the Adam Eaton signing and/or the Freddie Garcia trade, since that was where we put the money we saved on Abreu's salary. I might well have turned around and traded Abreu later on, but only if I could get some legitimate value in return.

The team is obviously better since trading Abreu, but it's because of factors totally unrelated to the trade, or to the salary we freed up by making that trade. I can't believe there are people that don't get this. I also can't believe it's still being debated.

They should def trade for Oswalt. not only do you get a graet pitcher, but you're guaranteed to get good value since Ed Wade will screw the trade up no matter what.

If you consider the Abreu trade in a vacuum, it was a bad deal. The Phillies could have & should have gotten more for a hitter of his caliber. My feeling at the time, however, was that Abreu had not & did not figure to be a factor in the Phillies moving to the next level. Beyond that, I found him extremely annoying to watch in the field. As such, I figured I'd rather watch a non-playoff Phillies team w/out Abreu than what I had been watching, which is to say a non-playoff Phillies team w/ Abreu. I have never had any cause to regret feeling that way. Of course, if something similar were to occur today -- a player I find annoying (say, Hamels) traded far below his potential value to another team -- I would be highly irate. But that's viewing the situation through the prism of 3 division titles, 2 pennants & a WFC. The prism of the time was a floundering team going on twelve straight years w/out a playoff appearance. Placing so much focus on Abreu's statistical value vs. what the Phillies received in return tends to obscure relevant context.

I'm sure this point has been brought up before, but...

If we don't trade Bobby Abreu, do we bother picking up Jayson Werth? Even if we do pick up Werth, does he become the hitter he is now since he would most certainly be a bench player behind Abreu? I'd say no.

bap: Then you are a fool. From wikipedia: "Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, physics, and philosophy studying the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. This sensitivity is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for chaotic systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general"

I would not change any of the initial conditions that led to the 7 in 17 comeback against the Mets, and then later the '08 WS title. Easily the two highlights of my sports fan life.

Brian - I'm thinking this is not "our" bap. No sign of a trained legal mind at work in these posts. The Bruntlett post in particular.

Actually it's not valid to say either way if the Abreu helped or hurt.

I mean on one hand you could easily assume the the only value a player has is absolute and based solely 100% on his numbers.

On the other hand he could have been a complete ass-hat that no one liked being around.

Since the first point is so obviously not true and we have no idea on the second point it really is silly to suppose that the trade hurt or helped either way. Or for that matter was Bad or Good.

IF, whether directly or indirectly, trading Abreu led the Phils to the success they have now, I would make the trade 100 out of 100 times, and I was against it at the time.

Rex - we know that the Phils won pennants in 2007, 2008 & 2009 without Abreu. We can't know what they would have done with him. The question is why would anyone like "bap" - with the benefit of hindsight - still be insisting it was a mistake to get rid of him.

OOH Chaos theory. fun fun. I've often thought about that when people make or say things on here like "If only we'd scored that run in the second we wouldn't be down a run now." When in fact you have NO IDEA what the effect of scoring that run would have been, OR had we "bunted" or "left in", "not left in" a pitcher.

"I would not change any of the initial conditions that led to the 7 in 17 comeback against the Mets, and then later the '08 WS title."

Who said I wouldn't change any of the initial conditions? I just got done saying that those conditions -- at least the ones that mattered -- had nothing to do with the Abreu trade. The only subsequent roster moves that were directly, or even indirectly, attributable to the Abreu trade were horrible ones.

"bap" - one of the "initial conditions" was that Abreu was not playing RF for us.

And since this whole hypothetical scenario is based on hindsight, I ask this: considering that Abreu ended up with a .297/.424/.486 split in the season we traded him, then went on to post .814+ OPS, with .283+ averages & 100+ RBIs in each of the next 3 seasons, do you think maybe, if we got to take back the trade, we might be able to re-trade him for something slightly better than CJ Henry, et al.?

Curt:

I agree with that. The "outcome" has been good. I should have been a touch more clear. I was trying to say that we don't know what the value of abreau would have been if he had stayed on the team.

somebody brings up the Abreu trade in jest and off to the races they go! Hilarious

b_a_p: Well, we know what Gillick accepted for Abreu, & we have seen what Wade & Rube consider good value in return for trading upper-level players ... so, no.

"bap" - really, who cares? It's fun to "play" GM, especially with the benefit of hindsight, but I'll take the actual results on the field over any hypothetical better trade you want to dream about.

Damn, I love this site!

Tomorrow I may throw out a random statement about all of the good things David Bell brought to this team, just to see where it goes...

JW, displaced Phils fan, originally from Reading, out in L.A. I'd love an autographed copy of the book. I'm more than happy to buy it, but how can I get your John Hancock?

I hate days off.....

curt: Well, your whole proposition started out with a hypothetical state of 20-20 hindsight. If you're going to use hindsight to say that the Abreu trade worked out, that same hindsight also tells us that we gave a still very good player away for nothing.

I still lose sleep over the Phils trading Ryne Sandberg. And why, oh why, did they let Grover Cleveland Alexander go in 1918??

C'mon guys. The Abreu trade is too long ago to continue bickering about.

Now about Cliff Lee...

RE: Grover Alexander

Worst day of your life, eh Old Phan?

I agree, we have more recent fishes to fry.

G-Town, as Homer Simpson said, "Worst day of my life...so far."

bap - fair enough. Let's agree that the Abreu trade worked out but it's too bad it didn't work out even better.

Willard: David Bell hit for the cycle once. He was the last Phil to do so.

We also won a World Series after we ditched both Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen. That fact obviously also wipes away inadequate returns the Phils received from those trades.

I say we try to get every Phils' fan attending games to bring a pair of binoculars. It'll be like the Rays' cow bells, only much quieter and thus less annoying.

I'm still upset about the return we got for Curt Schilling. If you put together an all-time team of "all stars for whom we received no nothing" It's make for a pretty competitive squad.

David Bell got us Jim Thome. . . .

Trading Abreu and Cory 'Icecream Man' Lidle saved the Phils about $20M in the 2007 offseason - including both player's remaining 06, Abreu's 07, and 08 buyout.

You would have to go back and look at the acquistions they made in the 2007 season to see what type of affect that extra $20M had in their decisions.

IIRC - Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins were their key additions.

Werth was a < $1M pickup, so I can't imagine that Abreu/Snacks deal had any influence on that decision.

So we traded Abreu and Lidle for a bunch of awful prospects and awful free agent acquistions. Haha, probably the worst possible events you could ever conclude from a trade - but yet the recent success of the Phils makes it OK.

Old Phan: I hear ya. :-)

Billingsly: Bah. Bell was a lousy juicer. Literally. PEDs are supposed to enhance performance. It's right there in the name: Enhancing.

Kutztown: I was thinking about that last night, & I'd love to see it!

GTown - Better yet, have all the Phils' fans going to CitiField May 25 - 27 take binoculars with them. Or make a pair from Gatorade cups.

Look, other teams and their fans are going to whine about this, so why not beat them to it? Make it "our thing." It's better than that damn tomahawk chop or those idiotic thunder sticks.

I can't stop looking at this: @STATS_MLB: When he goes up 2-0 in the count, Carlos Ruiz is 6-for-8 with 15 walks, good for a .913 OBP.

91% success rate. Thats passable.


C - ?
1b - Jim Thome?
2b - Ryne Sandberg
3b - Scott Rolen
ss - Julio Franco
lf - Jorge Bell
cf -
rf - Bobby Abreu

SP - Grover Cleveland Alexander
SP - Curt Schilling

I guess Clif Lee is shaping up to be the #3 starter on the all-given-away team. Any suggestions on catcher and center field?

Cliff Lee trade was a(n)

A) Abomination

B) The worst thing since Bobby Abreu left our hearts

C) Turrible move

D) Aumont es el diablo que no puede dormir

If you guys get me thinking about the Cliff Lee trade again, I'm going to bill you for the Lunesta I'll be needing to get to sleep at night.

Kutztown Fan: We should also forgo the 7th Inning Stretch the next time the Rockies are in town in favor of a 7th Inning Group Cry.

Jbird: Don't forget Ferguson Jenkins. You could put together an entire rotation.

JBird --

as of today, i think you have to go with Barajas at catcher; at least if Philly killing is part of the equation.

Funny thing is, since Abreu was dealt I have never felt a momemnt of "too bad Abreu isn't here to enjoy this". But with Lee, I fear looking at the box score after he pitches.


Can we stop writing off Aumont/Gillies/Ramirez already?

Crap. I forgot about Fergie Jenkins.

G-town - and I'm replacing Thome with hall of famer Nap Lajoie who "jumped" to the Philly A's according to baseball reference

Sorry I brought up the Bobby Abreu trade. You know it is an off-day is that gets brought up.

But speaking of off days, Bob Ford's column is "Let's face facts: Phils need a new closer" isn't much better. Even if the Phils were inclined to trade for a closer right now before they know what Lidge can or can't do this season, they aren't going to find a trade partner this early in the season.

Basically see what Lidge has for the next 2+ months and make a decision at some point in July. My bet is that they come to a decision on Romero sooner than that especially since he is a FA at the end of this year. If he is still stinking it up by early July, my bet is the he gets DFA.

got a nobody for hall of famer Billy Hamilton too. . . wonder if he could play center. This is fun but getting a little depressing.

jbird: We got value for Thome in Rowand, so he doesn't count.

It'd be interesting to see how often teams actually do get value for trading away stars. Just some recently that are popping into my head: Twins getting garbage for Santana, Indians getting nothing for Sabathia and so far very little for Lee (their best prospect they actually got for Casey Blake), Marlins having nothing to show so far for Miguel Cabrera. Pirates getting not much for Jason Bay.
Are the Phillies bad at it, or is it maybe just not a good proposition in general to trade away stars for prospects?

I'm getting more and more depressed.

Ya know, we put up with a LOT of crappy trades, crappy players, and crappy management through the years. We must be true fans to put up with it. I guess that's why we're enjoying the current Phillies team so much.

It must be so easy to be a Yankee fan....

Wow, we have quite the list of 3B "last players to..." list. D. Bell with the last cycle. Bruntlett with the last unassisted triple play. Schmidt was the last Phillie to hit 4 HR's in a game.

Throw in Charlie Hayes with an E to ruin Terry Mulholland's perfect game and we have quite a list of notable 3B's.

Jbird: ... & I woke up in such a good mood, too. :-(

This thread is absolutely hilarious. The best part is the sggestion of Barajas as catcher on the all giveaway team.

There has been plenty of discussion on here about Lidge's contract but what about Romero? Phils signed him to a 3 yr/$12M deal after the '07 season and he has given them -0.5 WAR since then?

Even in '08, his ERA doesn't really as good if you look at some of his peripheral numbers.

The other thing that jumps out to you is just how awful a pitcher he has been since he came off his suspension to start last season. Probably won't be ever able to prove it definitely but more than likely he was juicing/taking something illegal in '07, got caught, and hasn't been the same pitcher since.

Any news on Happ? Last official thing was on Sunday where he is continuing to "long-toss" and that Dubee saw signs of progression or whatever that means?

Been out for a month now and doesn't appear that he is remotely going to come back soon.

Brian G - replaced him with Nap Lajoie already. So:

C Rod Barajas
1b Nap Lajoie
2b Ryne Sandburg
3b Scot Rolen
ss Julio Franco
lf Jorge Bell
cf Billy Hamilton
rf Bobby Abreu
sp GCA
sp Curt Scilling
sp Fergie Jenkins
sp Cliff Lee
sp Lew Richie


MG: Last thing I saw was a Tweet from Murphy to the effect that Happ was "long-tossing" at 90ft. & wasn't even close to coming back. I'll try to dig up the exact wording.

Maybe use Paulino instead of Barajas? How exactly did we give away Barajas for nothing?

Add relief pitcher Ryan Franklin to the list. We traded him to the Reds for Zac Stott (who? exactly!) on August 7, 2006. Now he's closing for the Cardinals.

Lineup posted. Exxon at SS, batting 7th. Hoover at C, batting 8th. The rest as per the usual.

@MG -- so what you are saying... the Red Sox got rid of Romero because he couldn't throw strikes... and then all of a sudden two weeks later... Romero changes leagues... takes a magic pill.. and suddenly finds the strike zone???

Please take Barajas off that list. Maybe Paulino, but there's gotta be someone better.

Fergie Jenkins.- was that a bad trade--

I mean Larry Jackson and Bob Beuhl...

what did Fergie ever do???

"He was a three-time All-Star, winner of the 1971 Cy Young Award, and was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1991
Source - Wiki

Jarmillo for Paulino

and then Paulino for Taschner

NOw Taschner and Jarmillo are on the Buccos

oh what do thephillies have to show for that>? NADA - BUPKIS - ZILCH, etc...

mackerel: Luckily, the Phillies haven't needed any depth at the Catching position these past two seasons ...

Aw, crap.

The Phillies announced the following ticket information for the June 25-27 series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Citizens Bank Park:

Tickets will go on sale May 21 at 9:00 a.m. Fans can purchase tickets online at phillies.com, by phone at 215-463-1000 or in person at the First Base Gate ticket windows at Citizens Bank Park. Season ticket holders were provided an opportunity to purchase tickets for this series prior to the public sale.

The game times are as follows: June 25 at 7:05 p.m.; June 26 at 4:05 p.m.; and June 27 at 1:35 p.m.

Ticket Info For Blue Jays Series In June

The Phillies announced the following ticket information for the June 25-27 series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Citizens Bank Park:

Tickets will go on sale May 21 at 9:00 a.m. Fans can purchase tickets online at phillies.com, by phone at 215-463-1000 or in person at the First Base Gate ticket windows at Citizens Bank Park. Season ticket holders were provided an opportunity to purchase tickets for this series prior to the public sale.

The game times are as follows: June 25 at 7:05 p.m.; June 26 at 4:05 p.m.; and June 27 at 1:35 p.m.

Ticket Info For Blue Jays Series In June

And Jaramillo still sucks.

I guess Tim McCarver was ok after he left the Phillies and they only got John Bateman who put up 1 season of a 53 OPS+ before being released. Whole McCarver had some ok years before being re-acquired.

I'm at a loss on the catcher position. I thought maybe Keith Moreland who went in the trade for Mike Krukow but, he wasn't that much of a catcher and, now that I looked it up, we parlayed Krukow into a trade for Al Holland (and a very old Joe Morgan).

Looking at Romero's numbers in 2007... his BB/9 was fairly consistent over the stretch of years before and after 07. He had an uptick with his K/9 by 2Ks. But a HUGE drop-off of his hits per 9. That was why he was successful in 07.

So does that mean he was missing bats more? And if so was he benefiting from a change in leagues or PEDs?

I imagine someone can find charts on velocity charts for Romero and do a compare and see if they can find the PED link.

Then, I was thinking John Stearns. But, then I looked it up - we got Tug McGraw for him and we had Bob Boone so, who needed Stearns?

Hugh: How about Dutch Daulton, who we gave away for nothing and hit the crap out of the ball for Florida in the WS.
Yeah, it wasn't like it was a bad move since we weren't competing and he was about to retire anyway, but if it's simply the "Phillies all-giveaway team" then I think he qualifies.
(unless you're happy with Billy McMillon, who actually had good AAA numbers but never got a shot with the big club after '97 for some reason)

Brian: I'll put that in the category of doing right by Dutch.

Also, did Daulton even play catcher for us or Florida in '97?

"Crap. I forgot about Fergie Jenkins."

Dagnabit. I was hoping that no one would have brought him up.

That said, trading Jenkins lead, ultimately, to multiple WS championships.* We don't know for a fact that the Phils would have won those championships had he not been traded.

Therefore, we can confidently conclude that contrary to conventional wisdom, the trade was not a mistake.


* not to mention, over 10,000 losses.

Zolecki: "Carlos Ruiz said his right knee is much better, but is available tonight only in an emergency situation."

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