Stars aligned for time-honored slow start, fast finish

The Phillies have experienced tattered beginnings before and they’ve rallied in the end. But once again, their depth and resiliency will be tested early on the heels of the Joe Blanton announcement.

Kudos to David Murphy of the Daily News for quickly nailing the sudden dilemma facing the Phillies. Before team physician Michael Ciccotti could even step out of Charlie Manuel’s office this morning, it seemed Murphy had half his morning entry in the bag. In it, Murphy explains the domino effect this will have for the Phils, who are suddenly without a safety net in both the rotation and bullpen. Check this turn of phrase from Murph:

“Suddenly, the Phillies will enter the regular season with a disabled list that features two relievers and one starter worth a combined $24 million. Suddenly, getting some production out of Rule 5 pick David Herndon won't just be a luxury, but a necessity. Suddenly, a rotation that was supposed to pitch deep into games and take pressure off a thin bullpen will feature both Moyer and Kendrick.” [Read the rest]

Beerleaguer: Of the options available to replace Kendrick in the ‘pen, I’d throw my vote behind Andrew Carpenter, who’s on the 40-man roster and the most prepared to fill a long-man role in the Majors. As for the probability of being without Blanton until May, my fear is that April will be treated as an extension of spring training, and before you know it, the Phils will be six games under .500, unsettled and in a position to start pressing in May.

Don't forget to throw your support behind Beerleaguer tonight in The Phield. Voting begins at 6 p.m.

Comments

[William Schweitzer]

I've got June in the pool for when Pedro Martinez returns.

[MG]

6 games under .500 with the relatively easier schedule they have in the 1st half of April? Nah.

22 games in 30 days with plenty of rest. I say 12-10 come May 1st and 1.5-2 GB of the Braves with a fairly bunched up NL East.

[donc]

Relax folks. Injuries are a part of the game. A crummy part but a part nonetheless.

[J.R. King]

Depth in the starting rotation is extremely important. I'm thankful the Phillies have Kendrick and Carpenter, but that may not be enough over 162 games.

Last season, the Phillies used 12 starting pitchers:

1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Blanton
4. Moyer
5. Chan Ho Park
6. J.A. Happ
7. Antonio Bastardo
8. Rodrigo Lopez
9. Andrew Carpenter
10. Kyle Kendrick
11. Pedro Martinez
12. Cliff Lee

[Hugh Mulcahy]

I'll take July 20 on Pedro starting his spring training in AA. First start 8/4/10.

Isn't this just more of hte same - Spring Training North for the month of April?

[GBrettfan]

I liked Murphy's Jenga metaphor, myself.

[Jon]

Does anyone else want Mathieson in the pen over Carpenter? I like Carpenter but think Mathieson has the makings to become a great reliever and don't believe he needs much more seasoning. Obviously Carpenter would be an ideal long man but I don't think its that necessary since the majority of our relievers can go multiple innings. I wouldn't mind Rosenberg either but I would have to assume Mathieson has a leg up on him.

[ozark]

Go 9-1 to start vs. Nats and 'Stros and all is forgotten.

[J. Weitzel]

Last I heard on Mathieson was he had a lot of work to do to be an effective pitcher in the Majors. Had a pretty short stay in camp.

[Dan in Philly]

Thank goodness Moyer pitched well enough to keep his starting job!

[Meyer]

A blistering hot June forecast for the NE will bring Pedro North for the AL schedule.

[NEPP]

How about Braden Looper? He's probably good for an ERA around 5.00

[NEPP]

Per PhuturePhillies, Carpenter has taken Blanton's roster spot for now.

[Chris]

Is the SI Halladay article available online?

[Kutztown Fan]

A friend of mine was at the Phils/Jays game yesterday and said Blanton was very pissed off about something. My guess is he was told about the DL yesterday, even though it wasn't officially announced until this morning. So maybe - MAYBE - his reaction was so strong because he didn't think he was hurt that badly to warrant a DL stint. (Or maybe he was just pissed off because he was injured.)

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Only one way to find out: Topeka it.

[thephaithful]

Not sure anyone can convince me that Mathieson is a worst choice than Carpenter.

[Phillies Red]

Look out for the crazy talk!

Contreras had a better FIP last year than Blanton (though a slightly worse xFIP). Contreras could certainly hold down the fort if need be (i.e. Moyer and/or Kendrick suck and/or get hurt), either until Blanton returns, or Amaro brings in reinforcements. It sucks to lose Blanton now, but part of the reason the Phils won that health award was that they didn't push guys to get back out there. We may take a lump or two early on, but I think MG is right: this might well mean that Blanton is sharp when we decide to make our late season surge.

I'd also add that seeing Herndon and Carpenter out of the pen will give us a sense of how those two can perform out there, and I for one am ready to see if clout is right about Kendrick.

[SteveW]

I'm not one to panic, but Hamels, Happ, Moyer, Kendrick, Lidge and Romero are all question marks. No idea what we'll get from any of them. If half of that list fails to live up to expectations or bounce back from injury, that's a big problem.

[kuvasz]

Before prediciting a bad April the Phillie have one ought to recognize how weak the opposition is during the month. In 22 games the Phillies face the Nats 6 times, the Astros 3 times, and the Diamondbacks 3 times, the Marlins and Braves 3 times each, along with the Giants 3 times in SF and a game with Mets to end the month.

I doubt that the team finishes the month under .500.

[Kutztown Fan]

Bed Beard: I Topekad it, and all I got were links to leprachaun websites and directions to Clout's house.

[awh]

Kutztown, Blanton has never been on the DL.....ever.

I suspect it had to do with being injured, knowing the kind of injury he had, and the knowledge that it put Condrey on the DL last season - even if he wasn't told about being DL'd until today.

I also suspect that never having been on the DL was a tremendous source of pride for Blanton, and perhaps a source of bragging right too.

That, added to the fact that he loves to and just wants to play ball, if he was pissed off I understand completely.

[Kutztown Fan]

I thought it was more of Blanton being pissed that he was injured. He seems like that kind of guy.

On a lighter note, my friend and his family had a tremendous time at the Phillies game. They were officially "hosted" by the Phillies, giving them access to several players, etc. He said they were all class acts, very friendly, and clearly a great bunch of guys.

At one point during the game, his 5 year old went missing! Some how he got into the Phillies dugout and was sitting with the guys, drinking Gatorade.

[Bay Slugga]

Moyer has been effective today...so far.

[Meyer]

Aye, Cloutius.

[Andy]

Meant to get this up earlier:

in a time of Fogg
much is hard to see clearly
but not suckitude

To the matter at hand: as much as I've been skeptical about Kendrick's ability to become a major league starter, I'd still rather have him start than Carpenter.

And as much as Carpenter seems to be the next in line, I question the choice of a soft-tossing righty as the bullpen solution when the only lefty going North may be Bastardo.

I'd (almost) almost rather have Vic Darensbourg. Maybe instead of Fogg they shoulda wasted minor league money on Ron Villone. After all, we know as far as Spring Training is concerned, it ain't over til the fat LOOGY signs.

[awh]

SteveW, I disagree with you somewhat.

I think we do have an idea of what to expect from the 3 starters you listed:

Lets start with the averages for starters:

Lg.......#1......#2......#3......#4......#5
MLB.....3.60....4.14....4.58....5.10....6.24
AL......3.70....4.24....4.58....5.09....6.22
NL......3.51....4.04....4.57....5.11....6.26

Hamels:

IN 2009 he was slightly above league average, and that was a bad year. IMO you can expect somewhere between what a #1 and #2 starter will deliver, with the upside being a #1.

Happ:

He had the ERA of an ace last season. I don't know anyone who follows the game seriously who expects that [If he does pitch to a sub-3 ERA again he'll force the SABR community to come up with a new methodology :) ]. A regression to somewhere around what the average #3 does is a reasonable expectation, with the upside being what a #2 will deliver.

Kendrick:

We've probably seen him at his worst in 2008 (5.49 ERA). I expect he'd probably deliver performance between what the averge #3 and #4 delivers.

Moyer:

Expect performance at the level of an average #4, an ERA +/- 5.11, though coming off the surgeries he had perhaps I'm reaching a little in any type of expectation.

On Lidge and Romero I agree.

[awh]

Andy, of course you'd rather have Kendrick start than Carpenter. If it's a choice of who they're going to give the innings to thye'll give tham to the guy who has the better MLB track record - for whatever that's worth.

[sifl]

Bay: I think 2 runs through 6 innings is more than just "effective". If that's anything like what Moyer gives us over the first few months, it will be huge for this team.

[EastFallowfield]

What Makes Roy Run

[John]

Is it just me or does anyone else have trouble distinguishing the difference between a win in April and a win in September? Yes, I understand it's important to finish hot, but, a few better Aprils during the Bowa years, and we may have made it over the playoff hump 5 or 6 years ago.

Good luck to BL and the Fightins tonight, a battle of the titans to be sure! No, I haven't made up my mind yet, and this is causing me more stress than I deserve during ST!!!

[MG]

awh - My bet is that KK/Moyer both give the Phils an ERA around 5 with KK average about 6 IP start and Moyer slightly under 6.

That is where the difference between the Braves & Phils become huge because there is a quality chasm between the likes of Hudson/Kawakami and KK/Moyer. I would give the edge to the Fish with Volstad/Robertson and maybe even a bit of a marginal edge to the Mets with Niese/Perez if Perez can even have a modicum of control this spring.

[Murgatroid]

One argument for Carpenter over Mathieson is that whichever one makes the active roster will only pitch in mop-up duty, which probably won't add up to many innings. Mathieson's been back for a little while now, but if we really are hoping for him to become a dependable major league reliever, he just needs to pitch.

[awh]

John, I think most of the Phillies, including the manager, agree with you. Charlie has been on them for a couple of years now about getting off to better starts.

Here's they're record on April 30th the last 6 years, and their finish to the season:

2004......10 - 14, finished 10 GB
2005......10 - 14, finished 2 GB
2006......10 - 14, finished 12 GB
2007......11 - 14, finished 1 game up
2008......15 - 13, finished 3 games up
2009......11 - 9, finished 6 games up

So, to your point, there just might be a correlation between a decent start in April and winning the division.

[awh]

OUCH, that should say "their" not "they're".

[Robby J]

On Rotowire, it seems Ruben has ben staying in touch w/ Pedro's agent, but he's "not an option" to replace Blanton in the rotation. Says they've never inquired about Washburn..

[baxter]

Now the annual good look at Kendrick comes a few months early.

[awh]

John, I don't know if there is a correlation here (OK, there isn't, but it's amusing nonetheless), but here match up the April records I posted above with this:

Days in 1st place (not incl. off days):

2004 - 31 (last on July 22)
2005 - 2 (last on April 6)
2006 - never led
2007 - 4
2008 - 79
2009 - 126

[Gsl]

Thanks for the link eff. That was a great read

[Bay Slugga]

I like how the Phield describes us as, "intelligent, well-spoken but tiredly pessmistic".

That may be true, but who is taller? JW or Meech?

[Chris]

sifl:

Thanks!

[Meyer]

phreakers don't know what triple reverso psychology is.

[Andy]

Does the Phield have any idea what city they're located in? This ain't the Yankees, it's the 10,000 loss meca of the world. We live in a berg that never gets tired of pessimism. That's like saying a fish is tired of the water.

I feel like finding 35 different computers to vote on. But we'd lose anyway.

[clout]

Beerleaguer conventional wisdom is that Pedro Martinez is the answer.

Beyond the fact that Beerleaguer CW is wrong 90% of the time there is this:

Pedro's last 5 starts as a Phillie:

9/19 3 IP 7 H 3 R
9/30 4 IP 6 H 3 R
10/16 7 IP 2 H 0 R
10/29 6 IP 6 H 3 R
11/4 4 IP 3 H 4 R

Not sure how much he has left, particularly in terms of going deep into games. If he'd sign on the cheap, he'd be worth a flyer, but that's unlikely.

[clout]

Phillies Red: "I for one am ready to see if clout is right about Kendrick."

What exactly has clout said about KK, other than correctly label as nonsense the spew from Jack et al that he can't possibly succeed because of his low K/9?

[Meyer]

I was reared on a steady diet of negative reinforcement. I am glad I'm not a Cardinal fan. So what. "That which does not kill us makes us stronger."
Friedrich Nietzsche
I will stuff the ballot box if I need to visit everybody I know in 24 hours.

[jim/jj]

I see clout is referring to himself in the third person now.

[awh]

clout, one or two posters say "bring on Pedro" and all of a sudden you label it as "BL conventional Wisdom"?

Sheesh.

[Andy]

"I see clout is referring to himself in the third person now."

WE ARE THE CLOUT. YOU WILL BE ASSIMILATED. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE.

[Unikruk]

Reminder to clout that Pedro's last WS start was pitched while he was ill (and if there's still any doubt in your mind, go back and look at the film) and probably not worthy of inclusion here.

Your cherry-picking also excludes the good regular season starts he had (and a repeat of that would have significant value), even if he wasn't giving a ton of innings. 1.88 ERA in 24 innings at CBP with a .701 OppOPS. I don't disagree with you that he's not really an option to start the season, but he'd be good in the role he had last year.

Still, I'd rather have him as a reliever.

[clout's abused child]

C an't
L isten
O r
U nderstand
T heory

[Greg V.]

Yeah sign Pedro now! After Josh Fogg blows a few games, it'll be nice to have the old goat back for one more go!

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread

[all's fair in blog voting]

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