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Monday, April 12, 2010


First of about 90.

Nice old-school style image. Enjoy the game! Let's go Phils!

My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team.

Love the gameday images. Gonna watch this one on local TV here in DC. Go Phils!

Amazing picture. And while I'm stuck at work, I'll be listening to Franzke and LA. Not good times, but decent times.

All Eyes on Cole

Nice graphic. I'm cutting out of work early for an "appt". Hopefully I get home in time as I'm leaving at 3pm and its about a 30-35 min drive.

Unfortunately, I have a two hour meeting from 3-5 pm today. I knew I should have called in sick today.

Over/under innings earned runs for Hamels:

6 1/3 innings and 4 earned runs

I am taking bets...

One more time:

Hamels: Career BABIP: .295
2009 BABIP: .325

Hamels should be fine. The problem isn't "in his head" as some WIP-ers have said. The problem isn't poor preparation, or youth, or anything. The "problem" is pretty much a bad luck season which followed a good luck season.

Go Phils!!!

Cybil on the hill is always interesting.

Lake Fred-
What were Heidi's instructions for today?
It may affect the over/under on keith's pool.

Coworker already placed 10 on under for 6 1/3...makes me think I placed this too high already. No bet on the runs though.

For Bubba -

Cole: Heidi, I'm starting tomorrow in our home opener. Isn't that exciting? How about a little action tonight?

Heidi: Now you know, Cole, that having sex the night before a big game will negatively affect your performance.

Cole: That's wrong, Heidi. Hall of Fame Manager Casey Stengel once said, "Being with a woman all night never hurt no professional baseball player. It's staying up all night looking for a woman that does him in."

Heidi: Oh, all right, but remember, when we're done, you still have to take Trixie out for her evening walk. Be sure to bring the scooper and bags, and wear your gloves.

Cole: Gee, Heidi, you really know how to deflate a guy.

Heidi: Man up, Cole!

Posted by: Lake Fred | Sunday, April 11, 2010 at 09:49 PM

Nats are +230. If the Phils hadn't just seen Marquis and Hamels was pitching in DC (day and away = less than mediocre Hamels), I would be taking the Nats all the way.

Staying away from this one though. Waiting for the first couple of crazy lines where Hamels is starting a day game on the road.

Thanks KF-
Cole is going to be motivated & frustrated- a dangerous combination.

Good thing the bullpen got a day off yesterday because, with Day Game Cole going, I expect we'll need about 6 innings from our relievers today.

I finally bought a radio. I'm throwing in the towel on Tmac and Wheels, can't take it anymore.

Sadly it appears to pick up a ton of static from my TV, which is disappointing. Wish the Phillies were simulcast on FM.

Cole is mediocre during the day during his career (4.66 ERA/1.40 WHIP in 37 career starts vs. 3.28 ERA/1.10 WHIP in 80 career starts) but it is day & road starts where Cole has been terrible in his career (ERA well above 5 with a pretty good certainty that the Phils will lose the game).

Granted it is a really limited sample size (17 GS) but it is still a pretty profound and quirky difference. Basically Hamels turns into Kyle Abbott during the day on the road in his career with a few notable exceptions (CG shutout in LA last year in early June).

Shame about the weather. Im glad I'm stuck in the office listening on the radio.

anyone know if this will be streamed live on

Ah, wonderful. First time I get to hear the melodious voice of T-Mac this year.

Castro is playing short stop today. Uh oh.

late scratch of Rollins on home opener? He must be injured?

On the radio they didn't even realize that Jimmy wasn't on the field. That's ridiculous.

i just heard rollins isn't starting. anyone know the story there?

JRoll scratched and Castro as the leadoff guy? Ay dios mio!

Anyone know why Castro started over Jimmy?

JRoll: Encouraging:

JRoll's walks first 6 games: 7

Number of times last year JR walked 7+ times in 6 games: 1

The let's hold off on judgements:
JRoll's OPS first 6 games: 1.255

Number of times last year where JR posted an OPS of at least 1.255 over 6 consecutive games: 12

The walks are very encouraging, but not unprecidented even last year, when he ended up with a sub-.300 OBP. His overall OPS may - MAY - be nothing more than having one of his hot weeks which happens to be the first week of the season.

Any reason why Jimmy isnt in?

Every ball is a rope. This will be a short outing.

bap: Stop it.

Must have been a really last-minute switch if Castro is batting leadoff. You would think if Charlie had any time to plan it, he'd have switched Shane and Castro.

Could this be a JRoll-was-late-so-I'll-bench-him thing?

Dan - given last year's start, I think fans are just encouraged Rollins is playing well. No one is starting a 2x MVP fan club just yet. Are you sure about that OPS thing by the way? He played 60 games with an OPS of 1.255 or more last year?

Guzman hits well against the Phils but not really for extra bases. .324/.335/.389

Following on Fangraphs: Phillies now have a 55% chance of winning!

dennyb gets his wish.

Yeah what's up with Jimmy, can't be a day off on the home opener?!?

"Rollins was introduced pregame as the starting shortstop. Apparently something happened in the 15 minutes between then and now. "

At least he didn't miss the team bus- I wonder what's goin' on??

Why is Castro leading off???

make that 72 games

Perhaps Rollins has the same issue Chan Ho Park did in his first game with Yankees?

Castro leading off? Jimmy had better have some fierce die-uh-lee-uh. There's no place like home! There's no place like home!

what's with no jimmy>?

something bad? :{

Who let Juan Castro lead off?

Maybe he was stuck in traffic??

They just said there is no information about Rollins being such a late scratch.

Probably hurt himself high-fiving all the fans during the opening ceremonies.

Please let his wife be having a baby...

What good is twitter if it doesn't instantly answer the JRoll question???

Sophist: That's the total of days where his running 6 game OPS was at least 1.255. They weren't all in a row and they were heavily influced by a few really great games (which bumped his overall OPS for the 6 days up for a while).

For the record, I'm greatly encouraged, but it is possible that he's just really, really hot right now.

Hope he didn't injur himself here...

I ought to know the answer to this, but somehow I don't: if a player is announced in the starting lineup but never takes the field for the first inning, is he eligible to enter the game later on?

Obviously Castro wouldn't bat leadoff in normal circumstances. Either the lineup card was put in with Jimmy as the leadoff hitter, or the change was made with not enough time to re-do the card before it was entered.

anything on the radio or tv?


Yeah, I'm with you. It would suck to be stuck at CBP today; it's much nicer listening to the game on my radio in my office.

BAP if he's on the lineup card turned in by the manager, then he can not come back in.

Fangraphs: Chance of winning now back to 50% :(

maybe jimmy isn't hurt. Maybe he shhowed up late

Dan - Still not sure I understand the stat. Obvious Bottom line: after 71 games last year, Rollins OPS was .575 with a .209 BA.


Willingham for MVP. For the love of God.

Take a midol, Cole.

Why on earth would Castro lead off? Seriously???

He should bat 9th. At best.

That was an awful pitch.

good old Cole

back to normal

why did we trade Cliff?

C-rushed. Remember when Hamels was good? I miss those days.

b_a_p, according to my 12-yr old, Jimmy is not eligible to come into the game since he was announced, and that is why Castro is batting leadoff. If my 12-yr. old can be believed. Pretty reliable, but I think it all comes down to whether the lineup card had been turned in already.

Lets see if Cole can bounce back from this

For the last time people, obviously Castro was not meant to bat leadoff. Jimmy was clearly replaced at the last second, where they couldn't switch the lineup around. There's no way Charlie would bat Castro leadoff if it was planned that he would play.

I'm hoping Jimmy's mildly ill rather than injured.

Willingham's 15th career HR vs. Phils and his 10th at CBP. Not great overall numbers at CBP in his career but some pretty nice power numbers (10 HRs in 116 ABs after his last AB).

Hamels is going to give up his share of HRs. At least it was a solo shot.


Sophist, what I did was download JRoll's game by game stats, then calculated this rolling 6 day OBP, BB, SLG and OPS. I then looked at how many time he, at the end of that day, had an OPS over 1.255 for the 6 day rolling time period. He did so 12 times last year. His running OPS was terrible due to his horrible start. If the season had started July 6, he would have looked a lot better on July 12.

Oh, and Sophist, the *sigh* was for the HR, not the explination :) I realized how snarkey that looked too late!

Jimmy was warming up on the field before the game--he was clearly at the park on time and meant to play. He most likely had some sort of (hopefully) minor injury at the end of warmups.

Maybe Charlie felt bad since the Nats are without Zimmerman

Hamels will probably always give up his share of HR, esp. with that short porch in right. Give him more than 2 IP, people.

Well, at least Cole bounced back ok...

You know what? I'm sick of saying, "Let's see if Cole can keep his composure. Let's see if he can bounce back." What happened to this kid?

With Marquis pitching, I'm betting the game will not end up 1-0

Yet another frozen rope right at a fielder. Might be one of those days.

Marquis doesn't look particularly sharp here in the early going either.

Dan, are any of these "rolling periods" overlapping?


At least that Willingham hit didn't affect Cole's BABIP, since that's how pitchers are measured these days.

Sophist: Yeah. Sorry that was not clear, my bad.

marquis may not be sharp but the phillies hitters are not taking that into consideration or they are not as patient as in the past few games..

It seems Marquis has tranformed himself into Roy Halladay since last week...

GBrett/thwnd: Thanks. That was what I thought, but I was hoping I might be wrong.

Jack: Cholly frequently batted Bruntlett 2nd in 2008 & 2009, and on a few occasions in 2008, he even batted Bruntlett leadoff. If he can bat Bruntlett leadoff, he can bat Castro leadoff. That said, I think it's pretty clear that, in today's game, Castro is batting leadoff because Rollins was a late scratch.

I know Dunn prefers to play LF but the Nats are better off with him at 1B defensively.

any word on young james?

Mackrel: Utley, Werth and Ibanez all went to 2-2 or 3-2 counts. Polanco and Howard hit the ball hard. The only guy with a bad AB was Juan Castro--who gets a pass for being Juan Castro.

Rollins get hit by a bus or something?

Accidentally posted in the old thread:

I really dislike the way the DC TV guys say "we" and "our club." I'm fine with broadcasters favoring their team, but using the first person seems unprofessional.

Spitz, they are not measured by BABIP. They are measured mostly by walks, Ks, and HRs allowed. That HR is very bad for Cole.

Rollins: Right calf strain.

Rollins: Right calf strain.

According to radio, right calf strain, occurring during warm-ups, for Rollins.

That sucks.

Rollins - strained right calf muscle...

Rollins: Strained right calf during warmups

Rollins has a strained calf. Happened during warm-ups, after lineups were submitted, hence Castro leading off. Jimmy can't even pinch hit.

strained right calf

Chris: The Nats announcers are bad with that. Rob Dibble offers no insightful commentary, just a lot of rooting for the team. Even if I liked the Nats, that would annoy me.

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