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Friday, April 30, 2010

Comments

Nice use of "fortuitous".

Nice post, JW. With this warm weather, I'd like to see the Phils jump on Niese and welcome him to the show. I don't think the 20 thousand fans at Citi can compare to the 45+ drunken teenagers he is going to see tonight.

Hamels still has a 36:10 K:BB... I think he turns it around in May. Let us preigh.

NEPP - Pedro (he may be wearing red pinstripes after the All Star break).

What about Moyer - 260+ career wins?

BTW, I think JRoll may be a lock for the HOF if he gets 2500 career hits (at 1638 now) and continues to field near GG level for the next 4-5 years.


Moyer MIGHT make it in off the Veteran's Committee in 40 years but I just dont see it.

For Jimmy's chances, please reference TRAMMELL, Alan.

"may be a lock"? That's like being half pregnant.

"Mets Success Reignites Rivalry With Phils"...A victory a day will keep the Trolls away.

"Fielder looks like he'll eat his way out of baseball by his early 30s."

Fielder already looks like he's eaten Pablo Sandoval, & has started in on a heaping helping of C.C.

I am shocked that sad sack Cole is among the NL strikeout leaders. It shows that that stat is overrated. In today's era of pitch counts, strikeouts take up too many pitches, using up the pitcher's time. Walks and straight home run pitches are the killers. In Cole's case, it is those long balls into the seats that are his Achilles heel.

****BTW, I think JRoll may be a lock for the HOF if he gets 2500 career hits (at 1638 now) and continues to field near GG level for the next 4-5 years. ****

Yeah, but its a fairly big IF at this point. The nagging injuries seem to be slowing him the last few years. He'll play only 5 months MAX for this year...assuming he comes back in the next couple weeks so that'll drag down his hit total again and might just effect his GG candidacy. He's the incumbent so he's got that edge at least but a guy like Tulo could rip that away and never give it back.

Prince definitely has room to grow into his sack pants.

Sandoval looks like Tony Gwynn...sadly its the quart of ice cream a day late 30s/early 40s Tony Gwynn, not the guy that stole 50+ bases in his Age 27 season.

Yes, Tony Gwynn once stole over 50 bases.

How the heck is Prince Fielder so fat, I thought the guy was a vegetarian. Pizzas and oreos? What the heck??

Moyer won't end up in the hall of fame unless pitching post 1995 is really reevaluated by HOF voters. What I mean is 250 wins becomes the equivalent of 3.00 and a 4.00 era becomes the equivalent of a 3.50. Even then he would likely be a vet com guy.
As for Jimmy, I see Larkin as a better guy to compare him to. Both MVP winners, both faces of franchises, similar games. Keep in mind this is off the top of my head. I full expect someone to google J-rolls best comparables and then come at me like I know nothing of this game and behave as if said googled opinion is thier own. Thanks.

Living in VT, I can point out many many FAT vegetarians.

Fielder is listed in B-R.com as 5'11", 270 lb...and I think that is being generous.

That should read
"What I mean is 250 wins becomes the equivalent of 300 and a 4.00 era becomes the equivalent of a 3.50."

Fat Vegeterians boggle the mind. I'm veg myself and come in at a staggering 150lbs at about 5'11". Now obviously Prince was a fat arse well before he was a vegeterian and there muse be some kind of genetic component at work there, but still I'm amazed.

I thought Fielder was a vegetarian, too. Some guys are just big, I guess.

Jimmy's #1 comp through Age 30 is Tramm...and its a pretty good comp. Which confirmed my pulling Tramm's name out of the air.

Larkin's biggest problem was his faberge egg like fragility. He average 115 games a year for his CAREER...pretty weak sauce.

Prince Fielder clearly thinks pork fat is a vegetable.

There are many fattening Veg foods. Looks like Prince eats them all..at the same time.

Reviewing some of the older posts, I thought I would make one last point about comparisons of the so-called Eagles vs. Phillies models: if the Phillies could draft 7 players a year that might legitimately make the MLB roster and produce the *following* year than, yes, by all means they could bet on getting 75-90% production from a young, cheap player as they might from a high priced veteran, but baseball's talent development system doesn't work like that. Unless you are drafting early and getting a can't miss college player, development time for a minor leaguer is at least 2-3 years even for a sh!t hot talent. The asymmetry of where teams play, the dimensions of ballparks, the type of playing surface, and the transition from aluminum to wood bats all complicate talent evaluation an movement from prospect to pro.

Larkin was a better, more consistent offensive player than Rollins. He also played at a time when offense-oriented shortstops weren't quite so plentiful as they are now. So that made him even more valuable relative to his peers.

I've always thought Rollins had a chance at the HOF, but that was mainly because I thought he had a chance to reach 3,000 career hits. His mounting injuries the last 2 years (not to mention, his declining numbers) are making that look increasingly unlikely. Without some milestone like 3,000 hits, Rollins merely belongs in the Hall of Very Good.

Glass half full, Jason? I'm in Northern Virginia, and when I saw "Mission accomplished: An April of .500 or better" in my Google Reader, I thought it was a headline from one of the Nationals blogs I read. The Phillies' traditional slow start aside, when this team has NL pennants flying above CBP from the past two seasons, I'm not content to celebrate hovering over .500.

My Phillies glass is half empty. I'm not optimistic about the season.

Rollins should be the first member of this core group to make it onto the Phillies Wall of Fame, but he has no place in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

I just ate 12 pieces of french toast. I think I'm nervous eating with Mets in town or maybe the Phils will score 12 runs tonight and Howard will close the game.

G-Town, you may be right. A lot of people think vegetarians eat chicken.

Off-topic, reading the 'this date in baseball history', there's a blurb about the Phils and Dodgers playing a 20 inning, 9-9 tie in 1919, where both starting pitchers went the distance. I don't think B-R has the box score but, if someone knows where to find it, I'd love to see it.

Jimmy has been good for about 160 hits the past 2 years. If you use that as a baseline (assuming he's gonna continue to get minor ailments like his calf) for the next say 5 years...he only ends up with about 2400+ hits. That's probably not enough to get him in. Not in the same era that Jeter will be voted in with probably 3500 hits.

Renteria is already at 2209 hits...at Age 33. Nobody in their right mind even considers him as a potential HoF. And he could very well make it to 3000...or damn close.

Meyer: What's to be nervous about? With Kendrick and Moyer on the mound, and Brad Lidge as our closer, the Mets will be lucky to even score a run.

* Also vegitarians...cows, elephants, rhinoceroses, pandas, hippos, and buffalos.

There was an article on Sportspickle.com called "Brewers horrified to discover that prince fielder has been eating vegetarians" but it looks like they've taken it down... I guess that was crossing the line?

I vaguely remember an interview with Fielder regarding his "vegetarianism"...

Basically he said he loves it because he can now eat more than ever.

So he's probably downing a bottle of dressing a day or something absurd

NEPP: Jimmy already has more hits than Phil Rizzuto and just as many MVPs, but not as many rings.

I just spied trams numbers and he hit for less power than i remembered. him and larkin are really similar. it's almost a wash. to me larkin and jimmy are closer because of the speed and power numbers. larkin got on base a bit more. since this was largerly pre-interleague play i saw a ton more larkin growing up so his game is fresher in my mind.
Anyway, bb-ref says jrolls age 30 comp is tram and trams career comp is larkin. fair enough.

MPN: But how many "Money Store" commercials has Rollins made?

Prince Fielder ate the rain forest.

Hugh: Retrosheet doesn't seem to have it, either. Your only hope after that is probably old newspaper archives.

I'll just tune in the IronPigs audio and hope to hear Bastardo and Mathieson shutting down Rochester.

****NEPP: Jimmy already has more hits than Phil Rizzuto and just as many MVPs, but not as many rings.****

Good thing Phil Rizzuto was voted in solely on his ability to play SS and nothing to do with the emblem on his hat...right? ;)


On vegetarians: At my old job, one of my employees was a "vegetarian". However, she also ate tons of bacon...as bacon is a vegetable apparently. Granted she was rail skinny but I thought that was always funny as she'd go up to the cafeteria for breakfast and come back with a cup of fruit and half a pound of bacon on a plate.

Brad Lidge has to be feeling pretty good today. He has had some nice outings in a row in the minors, and his first series back is against the Mets. I hope they call his number this weekend, because the fans will really give a good ovation. Hopefully, Brad can use that emotion and slam the door, or I'll slam my head into the wall.

Or the New Hampshire Fisher Cats

B_A_P: Fair enough. In the dark days before cable television I remember turning the antenna on the side of the house north to be able to watch Yankees games on TV when the Phils weren't playing. One game was an extra innings game, but Phil had left the park early and had to be stopped on the George Washington Bridge and re-called in order to handle the play-by-play.

Rizzuto was also voted in by the veterans committee. I'm just saying that the MVP + gold gloves + WS ring(s - hopefully!) + future numbers + how Chase Utley does in his career = that Jimmy might have a shot for a similar election some day. He's also big in Returning Baseball to the Inner-cities, so how that goes may also sway some votes. Edgar Renteria has never dominated a season like Jimmy did in 2007. Good to great, yes, but never dominant.

I just hope that, if Rollins becomes a play by play guy after retirement, that he can tell the difference between a homer and a lazy fly ball. Of course, if he can't, maybe he can be in the HOF too.

Anyone remember last year when Lidge went 5 for 5 in save opportunities against the Mets, even when he was blowing saves left and right against everybody else?

The next 5 years will determine Jimmy's HOF chances. He certainly has a chance. I think too much is made of the recent injuries, and just look at how he started the year. I don't see 3000 hits in his future though. He'd have to get in despite it - on the strength of his power numbers, his steals, his defense, and how much more success this team has.

Little worried about Kyle tonight, but then I looked at the Mets team SLG and felt a bit better. Also note that Bay and Wright are RHB, and Ike Davis, the young left-handed power threat, has been batting 6th. Let's hope the Mets roll out that Pagan-Cora lineup (although Pagan he something of a Phillie killer).

Hugh: Some of that was due to the Ameretto or the near sun strokes caused by days of golf played with this, that, and the other guy in North Jersey.

Dont get me wrong, MPN....I'd LOVE it if Jimmy makes the Hall. I'm just a bit pessimistic about his chances thanks to his recent injury issues.

NEPP: Yeah, I gotcha. That is a concern, to be sure. I'm just saying, he's still got a fighter's chance.

Chris in VA - Being a beltway guy, you might know the one or two gists of Mission Accomplished.

MPN: Either or both would explain it.

I am hoping the Skipper and the Castaways provide some good entertainment tonight. Charlie loves to out-manage his peer in these NL East games and its games like tonight that he will get his chance.

****I'm just saying, he's still got a fighter's chance.***

Definitely. I'd put him at about a 1 in 4 shot...which puts him about 90% of the league. A couple years ago, I'd have said 1 in 2.

If he stays healthy, if he pulls in another 4-5 GGs and remains around a 100 OPS+, he'll be very borderline. Toss in the MVP and WS ring/maybe rings and it gets stronger. Lots of runs, lots of RBIs, SBs, power, speed, etc. He's a unique skillset which helps and hurts him.

Dave: thanks re that old box score. Not sure when they started publishing those to tell you the truth.

NEPP - I don't think any HOF voters look at OPS+

speaking of pre-cable days, I grew up in central NJ and could catch the Phillies if the wind blew right, but mainly i had to deal with the mets on 9 and the yankees on 11 everynight. I loved the game and hated new york so much that I watched everygame and rooted for the other guys. The best was this real Phil gem from a lazy sunday afternoon before the yankees were contenders:
Phil: "happy birthday Jimmy, from you aunt and soon to be uncle." Phil's tone changes to that of an elderly man beffudled with the modern world and continues, "is she having some kind of change or an operation?"
Broadcasting partner (maybe boby mercer or jim kaat) responds gentley as to not embarass Phil, "No, Phil, I think they are getting married."

Hugh: I'm not sure, either. I have a local newspaper from 1887 or 1888 that includes the results of a Phillies game, but it only lists the league, opponent & final, not even a line score.

Ditto with the antenna games. Due east Yankees and Mets due South the Phillies and Warriors Roller Derby.

But even if they don't look at ops+ the other numbers they do look at will be there. Alot of "new" stats aren't that new at all they are just combinations of other numbers. Just sayin.

Re: Jason's assessment of the Phils for this post:

Offered respectfully: I think this assessment is a little too kind. On ESPN's baseball rankings, the Phils were ranked the number 1 team for the first week of the season. I don't think that, right now, anybody sees them as the No. 1 team, not with a crapshoot of starters after Halladay, not with a leaky pen, and not with poor situational hitting.

This is not to say that this can't be corrected and that the Phils season is doomed -- i still think we'll be sitting atop our division at the end of the season, though that's not a guarantee (and i still think Atlanta will emerge from its funk to be our primary challenger). But without a no. 2 starter (Hello, Cole!) or a reliable closer (Howdy, Madson and Brad!), we've got some issues that make us kind of a .500 team on non-Halla-Days.

So, sure, we've played above .500 ball for April, which, traditionally, is a tough month for us. But I think "mostly ok" can be better articulated as "their non-Halladay pitching has been below average, and has at times been bailed out (and at times not) by an explosive offense. When that offense is cooking, the Phils can power past their pitching troubles. When it is not, they are in trouble." And on that note, we have to consider ourselves in trouble when we're facing the likes of Santanas, Lincecums, and, er, Kris Bensons.

EastFallowField: Yes, but Lidge got those 5 saves when Erik Bruntlett was on the team and could easily pull out the old unassisted triple play.

***Hugh: I'm not sure, either. I have a local newspaper from 1887 or 1888 that includes the results of a Phillies game, but it only lists the league, opponent & final, not even a line score.***

WEAK...didn't they realize that 122 years in the future, that we'd want to know the Total Bases for each player?!? No foresight there.

Are you telling me to go get my shine box, Voice?

gobaystars - no kidding. and some, but not many, voters do look at OPS+. I just think when talking about someone's HOF chances, it's probably most helpful to look directly at the things that actually do make a difference. OPS+ provides an adjustment many voters, at least at this time, aren't going to make.

i don't understand why people think being a vegetarian means eating vegetables (and thus being skinny). for all we know, prince may make his living solely on pizza hut and cookies n cream milkshakes.

he should be referred to as a non-meat eater, because i doubt vegetables are a large part of his diet.

I think he's telling you and everyone not named Roy Halladay to get thier shine boxes.

No more shines, Billy.

Voice of Reason - Remember that string of games when the Phils pitched well and the team went 4-6? In 22 games, with a depleted pitching staff and no Rollins, I'll take 13-9. Who cares about ESPN power rankings. I'm sure the Pads got a look in the top 5 at some point.

Yeah, when it comes to HOF voting:

Money Store Commercials >> 130 OPS+

Ha! Wasn't thinking Shinebox, exactly, Jason. (Who would be Morrie the Wig Man in this analogy? And I guess Ryan Madson would be serving up the Meatball Marinara...)

No, like I said, "offered respectfully." Just thought the assessment of last month could use a dash of "worry."

The biggest culprit on this team right now is Hamels. He steps up, we're okay. He doesn't, we're battling back constantly, awaiting the perfunctory outings -- with attendant one-inning meltdowns -- of Moyer and Kendrick and Co.

Alert! MVPTommyD has showed up on twitter. I signed into my feed today, and lo, there he was. Now I personally don't mind the guy too much, but he's having the same old argument he's always having: going head-to-head with Crashburn re the value of stats.

Gotta hand it to the guy: he's taking this fight viral.

mvptommyd is the Chase Utley of internet trolling. consistent, relentless.

Why do I need to know a guy is batting .400 when I can just watch the game and KNOW he went 2 for 5?

Part of Jon Heyman's Daily Scoop:

Cole Hamels impressed scouts in the same game for a lively fastball that was regularly at 93 mph. "He's back,'' one scout declared.

Phillies Red: Whenever MVPTommy starts disparaging statistics, what he really means is that he doesn't like statistics which don't support his argument. In fact, he used to cite his own stats all the time. Granted, they were usually asinine statistics (i.e, Brad Lidge's 2009 save totals with no mention of his blown saves, or Raul Ibanez's numbers with RISP in day-time away games against division rivals). But they were statistics nonetheless.

"Cole Hamels impressed scouts . . . for a lively fastball that was regularly at 93 mph. "He's back,'' one scout declared."

If that's the scout's criterion for declaring that Hamels is back, then that scout has his head up his you-know-what. Didn't Hamels throw 93 MPH last year too?

NEPP: I know "Big Sam" Thompson had 166 RBI in '87, but unless I know his OPB I can't possibly ascertain whether the Phillies purchasing him for the outrageous amount of $5,000 makes sense!

I miss MVPtommy. He created some good reading on days with light news.

****I miss MVPtommy. He created some good reading on days with light news.****

My dog creates good reading on the lawn if I feed him too many table scraps the night before.

Argueing with a guy who doesn't post here anymore?
You guys are sick.

b_a_p: I seem to recall a Stark column from Spring Training in which another scout expressed his belief that Cole "was back", & the rest of the National League should "watch out". Apparently the scout meant Cole "was back" ferrying his Bichon around town in a designer bag, but unfortunately said bag had developed a hole, necessitating the rest of the NL "watch out", lest they step in doo-doo ... or the entire dog. It's a simple mistake, what Stark made. Anyone might have done the same.

The Onion has posted an excellent graphic on the relative merits (& demerits) of Ryan Howard:

Strong Side/Weak Side: Ryan Howard

gobay: For me, it's just a way to kill the time until the game starts. Once the game gets underway, I'll be able to argue with all the posters who aren't completely disgusted with the Phillies' performance.

Don't throw up on any little girls to night.

MetsFan: It's cool, Cole Hamels isn't scheduled to pitch.

Mets Fan: No self respecting Phillies fan would throw up on a little girl tonight - not with all the Mets fans that will be in attendance.

Here's a good topic that hasn't be brought up lately(meaning like within the past hour or so):

Fangraphs made an 'adjustment' to UZR recently, and Jason Bay's 2009 season went from approx -12 to a +1.

I dont mind that UZR flucuates, but that seems pretty drastic. My biggest problem with UZR is that its tied into a player's WAR. So even though most people accept that single season UZR shouldnt be taken without lookign at previous years, most people DO accept a single season's WAR numbers.

Mets Fan..your a nitwit..your pumping your chest about the mets and its only April...You think the answer is Ike Davis. You probably thought the same of Daniel Murphy. Hey, bang up job by your organization to pay Bobby Bo for the next 25yrs.

phaithful: You make a fair point. I generally think of UZR as an indicator of defense, rather than a God-statistic that tells me everything about a player's defensive play.

I do, however, heavily rely on WAR. I'm curious how much UZR effects WAR?

This series is very intriguing. I am thrilled about tomorrow's match-up, but the other two scare me. As much as I think the Mets are a third place team, this series will be tough. The Mets are playing good baseball as of late and the Phils are catching them at a time when they are playing pretty poorly. Although early in the season, this series could swing some momentum in the East. Should be fun to watch.

Usually, I check out during Mets series because I can't stand the trolls, so enjoy the weekend boys and girls and I'll see you again on Monday night/Tuesday.

Have fun!

So if Rollins gets 150 hits for the next 6 years (900) for a total of about 2500, does that put him in the HOF? Probably does if he adds another 4 or 5 gold gloves to his collection.

phaithful: That's because the adjustment was for Park Factors, and Bay played LF in Fenway, which is obviously a unique and extreme position. Almost no other players had a change like that. In fact, I think the change really only affected guys in Fenway and Coors, which makes sense as those are the two most unique outfield parks.

R.Billingsly: If you use Firefox, try the following

Beerleaguer Greasemonkey Script

I really can't thank joe enough for this little gem. :-)

phaithful: That's a good point about WAR, and my biggest issue with it. It's a great idea, to try and wrap up a player's full value into one metric, but I think it's risky to base anything on one year's worth of UZR, which we know fluctuates. You want to look at a 2-3 year sample of UZR to get a good impression of a guy's defense.

I have to be honest, I'm getting an even better laugh out of Tommy's Twitter account than some of his assinine posts here. A quick recap, then I'll stop giving him the attention he is so desperately craving:

- among his first tweets is a reference to now being able to follow him since he's no longer on Beerleaguer - obsess much?
- he has a whopping 7 followers, most of whom are corporate entities
- among those he's following: Kara DioGuardi, Kim Kardashian, Steph LaGrossa and of course, Beerleaguer.
-38 tweets in less than 48 hours. Clearly he has way too much time on his hands (and probably no job)


JW, I sure as hell hope that you have a restraining order against this psychopath (I hope LaGrossa does, too). Obsession doesn't even begin to describe this clown. Good riddance, tool.

Slugga: UZR goes in the same as all other factors, so for every run you save with your glove, you're WAR would go up 0.1

jack: i did not know what the exact adjustments were, good point. I saw that Zobrist had enough of a adjustment that actually moved him below Pujols for the highest WAR value in 2009.

Has anyone heard a peep about Rollins or Happ recently? I know Lidge is back today, and Blanton is expected back Monday, but I haven't heard anything on Rollins and Happ in a while. Rehab assignments soon, hopefully?

Madson to the DL with a broken "great" toe. Sucks.

Zolecki (via Twitter): "Ryan Madson placed on the 15-day DL with a broken right great toe. LHP Antonio Bastardo recalled from Triple-A."

Madson to DL with broken toe. Bastardo recalled.

Try, try again ...

Beerleaguer Greasemonkey Script

Now if only we could block that f*cking Reading Eagle feed. It's about as reliable as Sad Dog was before he broke his toe.

Jack: Matt Gelb said that he feels Rollins will be back sometime around mid May. On the other hand, he said that Happ and the Phillies have been extremely "tight lipped" about Happ. The good news it that Happ has been long tossing and hasn't been completed shut down. My gut tells me end of May.

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