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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

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Graade 2 strain, which means a possible partial tear, according to Charlie. 3-6 weeks is the average recovery time. UGH!

Blanton
Lidge
Romero
now Rollins.

That's a lot of talent we now have on the DL. Is anyone else worried we may be starting a snakebit season?

Dan: Agreed. But I'll feel even more snakebit when Lidge comes off the DL.

Lets hope Werth will be okay. Is he playing tonight?

JRoll for color man!

Is anyone else worried we may be starting a snakebit season?
if so Frenchy better look out next time we play the Braves.

werth said today he was fine. don't know if he's playing though

Did they trade him back there?

Update: The Phillies released an official statement: “We believe it to be a mild to moderate strain and we’re hopeful it will be a two-to-four week recovery,” said Amaro. “As in all of our injuries, precautions will be taken so that Jimmy is 100% when he returns to the field.”

Mild to moderate.

Dan,

season=over

"Wilson Valdez, whose contract will be purchased, started 23 games at short with the Mets in place of Jose Reyes last season."

Which is good to know, since that worked out so well for the Mets & all. Valdez batted .250 as a SS for NY in '09 ... so it'll be like having last year's J-Roll, only w/out the defense.

EF- After his Lee comments I don't know if the Phils brass want Jimmie to have that much air time.

God knows he sure would liven up the broadcasts though!

If Rollins starts to be the color man, he'll likely say something which will make RAJ cut his other leg. So no, I don't see it happening :)

i'm no doctor, but 2-4 weeks seems a little bit optimsitic.

Dan, no I'm not worried. What's the point.

Much like he has in the postseason, Chooch needs to step-up his game at the plate in Rollins' absence. I don't mind having Shane leading off for a few weeks, and Castro/Valdez are fine in the eight-hole. It's that seven-spot I worry about...

So many folks call the Phils an "American League" team, so removing one guy from the lineup for a month or two would still put us ahead of most NL teams, right?

Of course, his defense will be hard to replace.

Whoever said it earlier, was right IMO -- we will miss Rollins' defense way more than his bat. Not because he isn't having a great year offensively, but because the rest of this lineup is so good that other guys can pick up the slack. They've scored a ton of runs already this season. If they score a few less, they should still be able to win ballgames. His defense, however, will surely be missed.

grabbers, if Chooch moves to the 7 hole, I believe he will hit better, especially with guys on base in front of him.

Remember in 2009, he had Feliz hitting in front of him, who did not exactly get on base at a prodigious clip.

Am I the only one not worried? If this injury was mid September, worried to death. Mid-April, not so much. At least we get to see if we really did upgrade our bench or not, right?

Offensively, the biggest off season move that helps us through a JRoll injury, is the Polanco move.

Defensively, the biggest off season move that hurts us through a JRoll injury, is the Polanco move.

Defensively, we were slightly weaker without Feliz. Without JROLL, that LEFT SIDE feels REALLY REALLY scary.

Can we get Bowa from LA for a month or so?

Just like Pedro- you can't figure him for a full season but , look we're comparing him to Castro and Valdez.

He doesn't turn 65 until December so he should be fine.

The Phillies might actually be better off moving Ruiz up to 6th & moving Ibanez down to 7th. Ruiz has a high OBP because of his ability to draw walks. That attribute will be wasted if he's batting ahead of Castro & the pitcher.

Anyone interested in Aaron Miles? He just got released by the Reds. Terrible 2009 notwithstanding, I'd take my chances with a 34-year old with a .282 career average over either Valdez or Castro.

excellent point Bap

I figure we'll see Castro/Valdez in the 7-hole, not leadoff. Even so, I wouldn't mind seeing Chooch bat 7th.

FTLT:

"Is it me or does it seem like guys have been trying to run against Lidge as much as possible if he gives up a single/walk in his minor league appearances?" -MG

"How is that different than last year?" -BB

Bed's Beard- Exactly right! Every time someone got on first base they got on second base. A walk or base hit was a double. Pretty hard to preserve a 1-run lead when every guy who gets on base is almost guaranteed scoring position. It is a huge problem.

This ad on the side is killing me:

"Remember your high school cheerleaders? They're all grown up. CougarLife.com"

LOLWUT

Mild to moderate sounds like weather forecast lingo. The press release could read something like this:

“We believe it to be a mild to moderate strain and we’re hopeful it will be a two-to-four week recovery,” said Amaro. “As with all recovery forecasts, the cone of probability widens as you get beyond 48 hours. As in all of our injuries, precautions will be taken so that Jimmy is 100% when he returns to the field. Depending on a number of variables that field could be in Miami, Florida for Memorial Day; however, steering currents could bring his recovering into Georgia up to Atlanta on June 1st. If the early summer high sets up shop over the southeast, Jimmy's recovery may be in Philadelphia for the Red Sox on May 21st or further up the coast in New York for the Mets on May 25th.”

Yeah the Phillies will survive, but I was really enjoying the new line-up.

Most bizarre post of the week:

"Without JROLL, that LEFT SIDE feels REALLY REALLY scary."

Although UZR says I'm wrong, I believe J-Roll is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. But Castro, once a very superior defender, is about league average these days and Velez is slightly above that. Polly won a Gold Glove last year and he's not exactly terrible at 3B.

If it's me filling out the lineup, Velez starts because he's better than Castro both offensively and defensively. But Castro is making 900K so he's the starter.


Castro hitting 7th tonight. Honestly, that didn't occur to me when I made my earlier post about Ruiz hitting 7.

Can't imagine he'll do much in that spot but I hope I'm wrong.

I think this has been discussed before by others, but I'll mention it in passing. I was feeling slightly depressed about Jimmy getting hurt, so I went and took a quick tour of Metsblog. Ah, now I'm feeling slightly better, the inhabitants over there voted overwhelmingly that the Mets were on the wrong track (91%) and that Maine has actually regressed (I kid you not, they are actually admitting that a Met player isn't as great as they originally thought...). Anyway, here is hoping that Jimmy makes a full recovery.

I look at it this way: let's say Jimmy is ready to come back on June 1st. Where is this team likely to be in the standings at that point?

If it's anywhere close to first place, I'm still feeling pretty good going into the summer:

6/1/2007 - 3rd place, 8.5 back (.481 winning percentage)
6/1/2008 - 1st place, 0.5 ahead (.569 winning percentage)
6/1/2009 - 1st place, 1.5 ahead (.592 winning percentage)

I just hope Jimmy doesn't try to rush back too quickly; even out over a month, there's still lots of baseball to be played.

Dobbs in for Werth tonight.

About Werth not playing tonight, I'm glad they're giving him more than one day to rest the hip. Also glad Dobbs is getting playing time, which should be good for his ABs.

About Jimmy, I agree with JW. His offense is to be missed in the sense that he's gotten off to a hot start and is a great table-setter & catalyst when doing well at the plate. His defense will be missed b/c he's such a great, smart, athletic SS and the captain of the infield. His energy will be missed, too, b/c when Jimmy's playing well, no one appears to be having more fun.

I was hoping Valdez might be a better offensive and defensive option than the comments here are indicating. Seemed like he was on base a lot in ST, but I also did not follow ST closely. Time for Castro to earn his keep, at any rate. I remember Bruntlett was serviceable when Jimmy was out in '08, which is not a bad quality when replacing a starter. The double Monday was a good start. The bobble was not. Guess we'll see how he does, won't we?

I also think it will be at least 4 weeks for Jimmy. I think the trainers will rightly be cautious with him.

Speaking of which, when do we get Joe B. and J.C. back? Lidge can wait, he needs some more work!

Dobbs for Werth & Castro for Jimmie weakens our defense quite a bit.
Plus our #6 starter in the #3 slot.

Probably win big time since the world seems to be in counter-intuitive mode today.

The Game is on 17 not Comcast Network as scheduled originally.

It seems like fill-in players here have a good track record in recent years, probably because of the quality of players around him.

Dobbs has been swingin too much at the 1st pitch... Why not Gload instead.. isn't he an outfielder?

really clout? bizarre? to suggest that the SUPERIOR defensive player in JROLL is gone. and a guy while a gold glove at a completely different position... who is still obviously feeling out the position at 3rd and hasn't really looked comfortable yet in the first 7 games... who has already proven his arm is nowhere near the arm Feliz had...

you have more confidence in their defense than I do... but obviously you had no problem with a Wes Helms holding down the hot corner either. So it makes sense that you wouldn't find it scary....

You are aware that there are a lot of right hand batters in this league... and that we have 3 LHP on this team... a lot of balls goto the left side.

bizarre. you're right. we'll be just fine.

This is why I like Jimmy - Ryan Lawrence twitters:

"Rollins briefly told me he's been telling everyone hopes this is like 2 years ago: misses some time early, season ends w/ parade."

You make a good point, Bubba. Weakening our defense in two places will mean our pitchers will be more tested, no? Won't be able to count on a great play ending the inning if the ball is hit to SS or RF.

This was off of the Red's Website:

Cincinnati Reds
Reds keep Balentien, release Miles

By Staff Report, CNATI.com Posted April 14, 2010 2:16 PM ET
Wladimir Balentien and Aaron Miles cleared waivers on Wednesday, and the team released Miles and outrighted Balentien to Class AAA Louisville.

Thumbnail image for milesmug.jpg
Aaron Miles
Miles, who came in the trade that sent Willy Taveras and Adam Rosales to Oakland, suffered a broken finger in spring and struggled when he came back, playing in 18 games and playing .152 with a .222 on-base percentage in 33 at-bats.

The Reds are on the hook for his entire salary of $2.7 million, but he is a net savings over the salary of Taveras, who the Reds sent to Oakland and the A's promptly released.

Balentien had a much better spring, hitting .327/.353/.571 in 20 games and 49 at-bats. He was one of the last cuts.

The Reds aquired Balentien from Seattle last season in a trade for RHP Robert Manuel after the Mariners designated him for assignment. Balentien played 40 games for the Reds, hitting .264 in 110 at-bats with three home runs and 11 RBIs.

Esta bien. Valdez es muy deshilvanado.

I always seem to get the most scintillating pitching matchups with my partial season ticket package. Hopefully Blanton will be back for my next game on May 3rd.

I know everyone likes to play amateur doctor and determine how long guys will be out by finding their own research but the thing people forget is this: Those guidelines for how long people can miss time with certain injuries are not set in stone. What is a 2-4 week injury for some is 1-2 for others, and 6-8 for others.

The prognosis timeframes you look at are just averages of healing time. For athletes those healing times vary greatly because their bodies are better conditioned than a normal persons, and their profession is dependent on their body. If 2 weeks from now Jimmy is making good progress and could return they may give him the green light or they may say, "Give it another week just to make sure because you're going to need your legs."

It may take a full 6 weeks or two months depending on how his leg responds to the rest and treatments. Because of the training options available to him it might heal quicker than they think. It's hard to say. However, the healing process is not a hard and fast deadline.

Average NL SS 2009: .268/.327/.396. Our offense can survive without Jimmy, esp if Vic starts hitting. Let's hope Castro's glove isn't too rusty.

Bruntlett deserved some of the criticism for his play in 2008 filling in (.245/.304/.349), but that OPS was still better than what 5-6 teams got out of their SS last year, including MIL a top 5 NL offense.

Andy - I think Valdez is halfway down the NorthEast Extension hoping not to hit much traffic on his way to South Philly.

"Esta bien. Valdez es muy deshilvanado"

According to the web - translation

"It is good. Valdez is very scrappy."

High Cheese tweet:

Just caught up with Werth. He's available to play tonite, will likely start vs Scott Olsen tomorrow. "I plan on playing tomorrow."

Something people often forget when looking up injuries on the internet and speculating is that the article caters to the regular population. You know, like the people with full-time jobs.

Meanwhile, JRoll's full-time job is to get healthy ASAP so he'll get all the rest and physical therapy he needs and he'll be doing that every day he can physically do it.

That's why I often wonder why people are so surprised when athletes make lightning quick recoveries to torn ACLs and the like. Their job is physical therapy every day, unlike Joe SuperFan who might do therapy 2-3 times a week for 30-60 minutes after work.

Dobbs is only in RF to screw over my FBB team...with Carlos Gonzalez (day-to-day), Grady Sizemore (day-to-day) and Werth (day-to-day) its been a hell of a week.

mike cunningham, don't look up.

You might get hit in the face by the sky that you think is falling.

Nepp – Yep- that was UC and Rube’s thinking putting Dobbs in RF.

****Nepp – Yep- that was UC and Rube’s thinking putting Dobbs in RF****

Its a conspiracy I tell you! JW told me so. ;)

So the defense could be shaky tonight with Castro at SS and Dobbs in RF, huh?

Well, good think we've got a high strikeout pitcher on the mound who doesn't rely on his defense at all. Shouldn't be an issue.

Bubba: Thanks for the channel 17 news. I get that with my $14. cable.

I firmly believe that Cholly would have batted Jonnie Bench 8th.

Funny how the complaint just a couple days ago was about the bench players not getting enough playing time. Looks like they'll have plenty of time in the next few weeks. Be careful what you wish for.

Although, I am somewhat optimistic that Dobbs needs a few more AB's to get back to his old hitting self. I'm thinking between resting Werth here and there, and pinch AB's for the SS position, we won't be able to use the "rust" issue for much longer.

Jack,

I see what you did there.

Yeah, let's move to the Kendrick K/9 debate. That's always fun every 5 days (or sooner!).

Willard: Funny about the bench ABs. You're right.

Anyone know where I can get a downloadable Phils schedule (.csv's for Outlook)? They had one on the team site a couple years ago, but didn't see one on there.

@awh -- i'm the last guy to be a "chicken little"...

I just probably value the defense on the left side more than others..

I have much less confidence in the abilities of Castro and Valdez than others. And I think Polanco will get comfortable at 3b. having rollins on his left, was going to help him get their quicker... without that? Its kinda scary.

but i'm sure we'll be fine.

@Willard, I downloaded the CSV file last week. Looks like they made some changes to the website. It doesn't look to be in the same place. send me an email, and I'll send you the file.

@Sophist,

From previous thread:

"How are these things not consistent? If there's a RISP more often in a Howard AB, then of course he's going to have a higher ratio."

Over his career, Howard has produced RBI/ab at rates higher than most any HOFer that you can think of, outside of Ruth. Are you saying that the Phillies during his time with the team have put runners on base at a similarly historically high rate? If they have, then Howard's high RBI/ab rate is a function of how many runners he has on base when he comes to the plate. Otherwise, he's a freakin' prolific run producer.

sorry @willard: my blog comes up... on the link: mike (at) hammradio.com

goody: I get that with my $0 rabbit ears!

Jack: If only you had thrown in 3rd base on your list of defensive concerns, you might well have set a new Beerleaguer record for the most clout baits ever contained in a single post.

With Castro at SS and Dobbs in RF, this is a below average defensive team tonight.

Having one player out from the everyday lineup is no reason to worry. Clearly it's a hit to the team offensively and defensively, but this team has gotten through worse injuries.

Dobbs in the OF though is awful. If any of the three starters aren't playing, Francisco should be in.

MG, I'm not sure I agree. Average, maybe, but not below.

Agreed Brian. Isn't this pretty much a perfect situation to use Francisco?

The OF defense is certainly below average; the infield should be ok, provided Castro is still halfway decent, which may or may not be the case.

Agree with krukker and Brian about Francisco. This is why he's on the team. Besides, with Craig Stammen pitching, the lefty-righty issue will probably be moot by about the 4th inning.

Time for some optimism. Choose tomorrow's headline.
1.Kendrick K's 12.
2.Dobbs' diving grab saves game.
3.Castro's steal of home wins 1-0 thriller.

This team has shown they can play without one of their stars at a time (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ibanez). No reason to think they won't step it up when Bruntlett was able to step in and keep this team winning in '08. One hole in the lineup is an obstacle they've shown they can overcome.

It's when you take two players out that it starts looking a bit uglier. Werth not being in the lineup tonight makes it look pedestrian. Hopefully what he's saying is the truth and he's back in the lineup by the end of the week.

Looking forward to reading this game-thread tonight when they've got zero runs by the fourth inning and people start climbing up to the ledge.

Ben Francisco lifetime

vs RHP .263 .325 .454 .778
vs RHSP .253 .316 .441 .757
vs Nats .143 .250 .143 .393 (8 PA)

Greg Dobbs liefetime

vs RHP .270 .316 .432 .748
vs RHSP .268 .309 .412 .721
vs Nats .203 .273 .290 .563 (77 PA)

Is Charlie holding Benny Frank back as a defensive sub for either Raul or Dobbs, and also as a RH PH, because he's the only viable RH PH on the bench?

phlipper: I don't have the stat handy but, as I recall, Howard wasn't near the top of the list the last couple years in terms of actual RBI opportunities. But when you drive yourself home 46 to 50 times per year, that certainly drives up your RBI/AB ratio. So too do all the times that he drives home multiple runs by hitting a homerun. Finally, there's the fact that his career numbers go way up with men on base. All of those factors do indeed combine to make him an RBI machine, even though he really only has one ultra-high OBP player hitting in front of him.

At least that they now called up Valdez they can choose either he or Castro to stay with the team moving forward. Castro would be be about $500K waste since whoever is taking that spot should be earning $400K.

How long does Castro get until Valdez gets some starts?

bap, your howard points compelled me to look up some splits. Howard:

Career .280 .376 .589 .965

Men on .291 .406 .633 1.039

RISP .278 .415 .583 .998


And here are the scary numbers:

as Sub .375 .457 .975 1.432

as PH .393 .452 1.036 1.487 with 5 HR and 12 RBI in 28 AB

mike c, I dropped you an email through your website. Let me know if you didn't get. Thanks for any help with the .csv's you can provide.

PhxPhilly - Castro was such a hot commodity in the offseason that Rube gave him a two year contract. If he is designated at some point, that's a little more money down the drain. So don't be the farm on Castro being sent out at any point.

Kick save and a beauty

Gold Glove Juan Castro

You know how Jimmy made those look routine...yeah.

This inning would be over if J-Roll had been playing SS.

How many extra pitches will KK throw now because of Castro not charging a routine grounder?

{Heard earlier tonight.}
Zimmerman approaches dug-out from warm-ups and sees Riggleman holding a slip of paper.

Zimmerman - Whatcha got, coach?

Riggleman - Hmmph. A memo.

Zimmerman - A memo? From who? Management?

Riggleman - That's the strange part. It's from Ruben Amaro.

Zimmerman - Amaro? What's he want?

Riggleman - He says since Kendrick is pitching tonight we're not supposed to use any lefties in our line up.

Zimmerman - Is he kidding?

Riggleman - I don't think so. That'd be a shame cause some of our best hitters are lefties. {looks up} Not you of course.

Zimmerman - You gonna do it?

Riggleman - Too late. I already handed in the card. {looks harder at paper} Hmmm...that's even stranger.

Zimmerman - What's that?

Riggleman - It's co-signed.

Zimmerman - Who by? Chollie Manuel?

Riggleman - Nope. Some guy name of...uh..."clout."

Methinks we miss Blanton more than we will miss J-Roll.

I'd like to blame KK but this is completely Castro's fault.

is castro officially rubes worst signing of his short gm career?

In the boxscore, that will show as earned runs but KK never should have face those final 4 batters.

Castro should be playing SS in a softball league somewhere. Not MLB.

I think resigning Gnome is up there Dukes.

Though jumping on Castro is pretty laughable.

Giving up a 3 run double to Adam Kennedy in a 2 strike count is all KK's fault. Thats a garbage pitch to a garbage player

Chances are the next time we see KK it will be 2012, and he will be wearing a KC Royal uni. Or a UPS uni.

So is UC forbidden by his contract to ever bat the catcher anywhere but 8th?

NEPP - How many extra pitches will KK throw this season because Blanton got injured?

Kennedy likes the da spicy meatball from KK.

Is there a reason Dobbs spells Werth in right, not Francisco? I don't have a sense of their relative arm strength but, I assume that's the reason Ben F is still looking for his first start and Dobbs isn't.

goody - that batting Bench 8th line was dead on. I was born int he northeast but, grew up in the western burbs. St. Ignatius and Holy Name. If Amanda Stoudt is the school near 10th and Muhlenberg, that's (was) my Nana's neighborhood.

Are they chanting "Pe-dro! Pe-dro!" at the stadium yet?

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