Game chat: A steep challenge to avoid sweep

Reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum goes in search of his fifth win as Cole Hamels and the Phillies look to get off the schneid in San Francisco.

Howard: Ryan Howard opus is done, but to post 48 hours after the news first broke would be really bush. So I’ve been slicing the main points into 140-character bursts and walking myself through the pros and cons on Twitter, since posting to a mobile phone with one free hand is often the only way to do it these days. Follow me here. On a related note, I’m working on ways to better integrate social networking and Beerleaguer without sacrificing the old-school appeal of the comments thread. You might have seen prompts to sign in using Typepad, Facebook or Twitter. I urge everyone to at least create a Typepad account with your own customizable avatar. Or not. I doubt Clout would do it, but NEPP did it. MPN did it.

Lineups are posted: Standard set against Lincecum, pictured right on the set of "Better Off Dead" (I want my two dollars!)

Lidge update: Mike Drago covered Brad Lidge’s rehab in Reading and reported that he was much sharper than in his one-inning appearance on Friday. “He threw some nasty sliders in striking out the side in the sixth inning; overall he struck out four of seven batters. The only one who reached against him did so on an error.” Drago marked his fastball velocity between 89-91. Meanwhile, Stephen Strasburg started for the Senators and lived up to the hype.

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Comments

[EastFallowfield]

Why does Hamels get called a lot of clever feminine names and Madson only gets compared to a deer?

I guess Madson was the MVP of the NLCS and WS and is getting cut some slack.

[Murgatroid]

Howard is now the sole league leader for Howards.

[EastFallowfield]

That Phils fan in right field that tried to grab the Werth double coulda won the game for the Giants if he had better hands.

[Brett]

The onus has to be on Bochy for pulling Lincecum. 8.1 IP, 3H, 11K, and he walks his first batter in the 9th with a 3-run lead? That is a dominant showing by the (second) best pitcher in the NL.

With a 3 run lead, you leave in the ace. Halladay stays in there regardless of closer situation.

[MG]

Muratroid - Nobody else has a Howard so far this year?

As good as Howard has looked at times defensively this road trip, he still has mental gaffes from time-to-time and can't throw to his right to save his life.

[bay_area_phan]

In fairness to Figueroa, those first 2 hits were kind of cheap & Schierholtz was dialed in all day long. But the reason Figueroa's a fringe major leaguer is because he struggles to throw strikes. That weakness has been on full display in every game he has pitched for us, including today's.

[fljerry]

I am probably the only person on this blog from the beginning of season said I hate to see Madson coming in for relief. I was dumbfounded when everyone was saying how all liked him. Well it seems I am right and hopefully they actually trade him and we save lots on his salary. Hes no better than Herndon or any other reliever we have.

[Pizzda]

A relief pitcher with a 3 run cushion should be able to close out the game.

[Brian G]

Blanton getting roughed up at Reading today. 5 earned and 2 HRs thru 4 so far.

Cole's BABIP today was .563. I don't resolve him of walking Torres, and wasn't watching so have no idea how hard he was getting hit, just saying. I think he's a few adjustments away from being a good #2 starter again.

[Brian G]

My main point is that Hamels didn't give up any homers today, which is a step in the right direction.

[GTown_Dave]

EF: It's assumed the the Deer in question is a Doe.

[LwrSlwrGeorge]

Unable to listen to this game due to work; being outside the Philly area, I do not have to worry about hearing the score on the drive home. If the BL game chat is an accurate reflection of the game, this one was a rollercoaster ride.

A big thanks to all BL posters for your comments.

[Willard Preacher]

Ironically, we were all pessimistic of:
1 - Hamels daygame history - CHECK
2 - Hamels inevitable implosion - CHECK
3 - Lincecum being unhittable - CHECK
4 - continued Phils offensive slump - CHECK (with just a couple of exceptions)
5 – crappy bullpen performance – CHECK
6 – Madson not being a closer - CHECK

And we won this game how???

[Pizzda]

What the hell is going on with the Mets?

[LwrSlwrGeorge]

WP: Because some one else besides Lidge can blow a save?

[Brian G]

If the season ended today, the Phillies would be tied for the wild card and be facing the Giants again tomorrow in a one game playoff. The question is... will Halladay pitch on 2 days rest???

[Klaus]

"Why does Hamels get called a lot of clever feminine names and Madson only gets compared to a deer?"

Using G-town Dave as a case study, my hypothesis is as follows: Hamels is handsome in a sort of feminine way--a fact that sparks a kind of insensate panic among a certain segment of nominally heterosexual men, which receives conscious expression via homophobic and misogynistic rant.

[fljerry]

I actually did not think Hamels pitched badly at all. He I believe had 10 KO;s in 6 innings so he had something going for him.

[Pizzda]

Klaus-Brilliant!

[GTown_Dave]

Klaus: Nothing homophobic about it. I'd f*ck Cole, I just don't want her on the team I follow.

[Klaus]

G-town Dave, ladies and gentlemen...

[GTown_Dave]

Edit: Upon further reflection, it's a bit harsh of me to want Malibu Barbie out of the organization completely. She'd probably make a helluva ball girl.

[Scott]

Game has been over for a while, the Phillies won, yet the hate for Hamels keeps flowing out of the Beerleaguer taps. And folks wonder why the "fans" get a reputation...

[Pizzda]

Feliz is gone. There has to be a punching bag, and Hamels is it.

[MG]

Its funny how there is so much to talk about but when you boil it down the Phils' fortunes last year were ofted tied to Hamels & Lidge. This year looks no different because the Phils have no alternatives for either if they don't get the job done.

[Brett]

The only reason I get pissed at Hamels (which I'm not today) is because I expect so much from him. He isn't playing up to what I believe his ability is, and that is frustrating.

Honestly, he gave up 4 runs to the NL West leaders, and still didn't lose to Lincecum. Your starter kept them in the game, and whaddya know, they won. Halladay gave up more runs for christ sake and had half as many K's. Settle down everyone. Enjoy the win, and the progress.

[MG]

Werth's 2B in the 9th:

- That ball literally landed right on line & couldn't get any better luck.

- Schierholtz would be getting ripped unmercifully on here and the situations were reverse and rightly so. For a guy who has good range & showed it all series, he looked like he was just jogging to that ball instead of running because he thought it was going to go foul. By the time he realized it might stay fair, it was too late attempt to catch it. Don't know if he catches that ball if he was running from the get go but he was likely in a much better position to make a play on it. Goat of the game.

- On the replay, there was some yahoo in a Phils' jacket who tried to reach & nearly touched the ball. If he did, it likely would have been ruled fan interference and the tying run wouldn't have scored. This middle-aged man luckily avoided being a scapegoat on Phils' blogs & WIP for the next 48 hrs.

[Pizzda]

I thought Velez's dropped ball was worse as a defensive gaffe, but it didnt have the same effect as Schierholtz's play.

[Pizzda]

What is it with fans who feel the need to interfere with games?

[DH Phils]

Characteristics of a girly man (or "Malibu Barbie"):

MLB All-Star
LCS MVP
World Series MVP
3.71 career ERA
1.18 career WHIP
Wife who has modeled in Playboy

[Pizzda]

DH, I think it's that last one that has some posters panties in a bunch (as it were).

[The Truth Injection]

I had to go to my grad class and missed the end of the game so this blog was fun to read.

I know I'll get jumped for this but Hamels did not really pitch bad today and I agree with denny b. that he looked more like 2008 Hamels. If Werth catches that ball and a few of those borderline pitches go his way it completely changes the complexion of his outing. Additionally, the bullpen was used pretty hard over the past few days so even though he was scuffling in the 6th the clear hope was he could get through it. Witht he lower pitch count he might. The Renteria hit was not smoked and had the defense been in a normal spot the play is made.

There were more positives than negatives in today's start.

More importantly though- the Phillies won the game. This was a great character win for them. They could've easily packed up shop and gone home but battled from the 9th on and stole one in the series. Hopefully that's the wake-up call for them.

[Meyer]

And I like the Mets castoffs more each game.

[EastFallowfield]

What the hell is going on with the Mets?

For one, they've played three less games on the road all season than the Phils did on their road trip that concluded today.

[Scott]

The law of averages suggests that, at some point, the Mets are going to stop acting like the team we've come to know and laugh about the past few seasons. I was not alone in my preseason prediction when I said that the NL East would be stronger across the board this year. It is still quite early, but the standings thus far bear that out.

[Meyer]

How could the Cubs lose 2 of 3 to those pesky Nats after being given the first game? Really Lou give it up.

[clout]

MG: There is no way Schierholz gets to that ball. He was shaded toward CF because Werth is a RH hitter. Cameron Maybin wouldn't have gotten to that ball.

[clout]

klaus: Has G-town Dave ever made a sensible post? Ever? About any subject? He's a drooling idiot. Not that that's a bad thing necessarily, as it provides counterpoint to the mostly intelligent and informed posts here.

[GTown_Dave]

clout: Irritating you is almost as sweet as a goblet full of the tears of disillusioned Mets fans.

[clout]

From Rotoworld: "Joe Blanton (oblique) gave up five runs and a pair of homers Wednesday in a rehab game with Triple-A Lehigh Valley."

[HammRadio]

A sign of things to come???

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5145694

DH to be used in All Star Game every year regardless of park...

DH is coming, my friends... and that puts the howard deal into perspective...

[GTown_Dave]

In other news, the Brewers might have an even worse closer situation than the Phillies. Trevor Hoffman blew a save for the second straight game today. So far in '10 he's blown 4 saves in 7 attempts, & given up 6 HR in the process.

[UD Hens]

Hey BLers, whats up? I turned the game off in the 6th when the score was 4-1. What did I miss?

[Jack]

"What the hell is going on with the Mets?"

You know, it's funny. If you said on here the last year and a half that the Mets have had really bad luck with injuries, you were laughed at and told that wasn't a legit excuse. But it's true. If healthy, they're a good team.

There's also some serious hindsight bias occurring with fans here. People remember that we won the division in 2007 and 2008 and thus we must have always been far superior to the Mets. Except that over those two years combined, the Phillies were better than the Mets by something like 2.5 games total. That's pretty damn close.

The Phillies are a better team than the Mets. But it was a lot closer the last few years than people around here have ever been willing to admit, and if the Mets get some good luck and the Phillies some bad luck with injuries, it could certainly become interesting.

[Meyer]

I agree with Jack and maybe with no one expecting anything positive from that group of players and the pressure off for the moment they will play to their salaries.

[The Truth Injection]

MG:The guy in the Phillies jacket on Werth's double was pointing at the fact that the ball landed on the line. He had almost zero chance of touching that ball short of diving onto the field after it.

My thing with the Mets last year was this. yes they had injuries but the GM did not have capable back-ups ready to go in case of injury. That is part of the job. A bench player isn't going to give you what Beltran or Wright does but you need someone who can give you some percentage of it. Look at Castro- we're not necessarily losing games because it's him and not Rollins. Defensively he has not been a huge drop-off. He's obviously not Rollins but him and Valdez are doing enough offensively to be passable.

That's part of building a team. Minaya has slashed and burned over the past few years and left the team open for injuries to hurt them.

[AFish]

The Mets have played 16 home games. The Phillies have played 6 home games.

[Dukes]

Wasn't able to see the game earlier so I just watched it. Many glaring things but one that is quiet was Ryan Howard's defense. Not being confident to throw the ball to second on a hard bunt, not getting the grounder to his left in the 9th, overthrowing Figgy in the 11th. Sometimes he can be great over there and sometimes he is just way below average.

[Dukes]

okay, so that's funny... I wrote the above comment about Howard's defense one play before seeing his off line throw home in the 11th. The guy was out thank God but not due to Howard's throw.

[Pizzda]

Howard's D is vastly improving, but I'll admit you wouldn't have noticed it today. I think we can be confident that he'll work on it.
I still get a bit nervous sometimes with Utley's throws, however.

[AFish]

I'm trying to figure out how the Phillies are going to manage their pitching. It is pretty obvious that they'll send down Bastardo to make room for Lidge. They'll probably send down KK to make room for Blanton, since KK has options. But when Happ is ready, they're either going to have to put Figueroa on waivers or offer Herndon back to the Angels. That doesn't seem like an easy choice.

[Jack]

After you sign a guy to one of the largest deals in the history of the sport, you probably don't wanna find yourself saying things like "sometimes his defense his just way below average" and "he'll work on it."

You usually like the guys you're paying 25 million a year to be pretty well established at things such as, you know, defense, don't you?

[bay_area_phan]

I've never been among those who think the Mets are some sort of second-division team. I've said all along that they will be much better simply by virtue of being healthier. It is a bit surprising to me, however, that they're playing so well when Beltran is still out, Reyes is still struggling to regain pre-injury form, and Bay isn't hitting particularly well. What they've had, though, is good starting pitching. They could certainly be very dangerous when Beltran gets back & their key everyday players hit their stride.

[Sophist]

These game threads bring out the worst in people.

[Sophist]

or is it worst people?

[Sophist]

Howard after 21 G

06: ..324/.419/.541 - 5 HR - 14.0 BB% - 24.2 K% (15 home G)
07: .221/.396/.390 - 3 HR - 22.8 BB% - 36.4 K% (12 home G)
08: .190/.316/.367 - 4 HR - 15.8 BB% - 38.0 K% (12 home G)
09: .286/.368/.512 - 4 HR - 10.5 BB% - 25.0 K% (13 home G)
10: .286/.323/.505 - 4 HR - 5.2 BB% - 19.8 K% (6 home G)

Not that Howard has hit well at home. Just thought I'd note how few home games the Phils have played.

[EastFallowfield]

Also, the Mets have made their move in games against the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers.

Two of the three are tied for the worst record in the league (.381), despite their success in the past. The Cubs (.455) are the best of the three, a game out of last in the NL Central.

We saw how potent the Braves offense is when KK shut them down. The Dodgers are being called out by their GM for the lackluster play.

We look with skepticism at our wins vs teams like the Nationals (.545) so it's fair to do the same to their wins.

[phargo]

Dear Ryan,

Thanks for making me feel better about the contract.

Love,

p.

[Bob]

Turned the game off on the radio when I arrived home last night. Two outs, one man on in the bottom of the ninth. Was griping the whole way home with my son about the game and the series and how the Phillies were really struggling.

About 8, had a little free time so went to BL to read the post mortems. What a wild ride! I had to scroll back a ways to realize the Phillies had really won. You can really get a feel for the pulse of the game and emotions by reading the comments. Thanks, all.

FWIW, on his pre-game show Mitch Williams sounded a warning about the Mets, noting that when healthy they had a good team who was starting to get its act together, and had the potential to be a real factor. He also noted that their BP has a more proven closer at this point.

We have Halladay, Utley, Howard & Rollins. They have Santana, Beltran, Wright, and Reyes. If they continue to get healthy and stay that way, it will be a very interesting series and has the potential of re-developing into the bitter rivalry we all know and love.

[phlipper]

Interesting how much Howard has dropped in both %BB and %K. Seems to be contradictory, he's striking out less but not being more selective?

[phlipper]

It's interesting how some folks feel that Hamels gets treated too harshly at BL - when I feel that a lot of folks make excuses for his poor performances.

Is there any objective measure of when player gets treated unfairly? I'm beginning to think that people always think their favored players get unduly criticized, and think that they players they don't particularly like aren't scrutinized enough.

Speaking of which - at what point in the year will people stop saying Cole pitched "not that bad" when he gives up 9 hits, 4 walks, and 4 runs and only goes 6 innings (during which he's thrown 113 pitches)?

Is there some cutoff point where people look at a period of a high ERA and conclude that he's just been bad regardless of his peripherals or BABIP?

[Meyer]

The Polanco Effect?

[Meyer]

I would give Cole some time. November 15, 2012.

[NEPP]

****These game threads bring out the worst in people. ****

It brings out the best and worst during the game...its the fun of it.

The Mets have a pretty good team and David Wright looks like he's finally having his breakout year at Age 27...a scary thought as he was pretty damn good before.

[holy mackrel]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/comments.jsp?ymd=20100425&content_id=9580732&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea

Cliff debuts tomorrow night.. Shoulld have pitching against the Mutts... but nooooooo...

we had to replenish our pharm system. ( yeah -right)

[NEPP]

Tyson Gillies is gonna transform himself into the next Chris Roberson and prove us all wrong...go Tyson!

[donc]

phlipper I agree. That's what gets me the most. Every time Hamels puts up a mediocre performance people try to spin it that he pitched well or, better yet, that he was unlucky. They conveniently ignore the numbers that you site and point to the 10 K's. Sure he struck out 10 guys but he's allowing 2 baserunners an inning and turning the game over to our less than stellar bullpen way too early. It's like the parent with the bad kid. "Sorry about that officer. At least no one was hurt this time. See he's not that bad."

[holy mackrel]

Thanks NEPP

that news reduces my negative feelings toward that debacle of a trade

I feel much better now & just can't wait til 2011 and 2012 when these replenishment to bear fruit.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Wild game. Never a doubt in my mind that they were going to win it . . .

Hamels struggled mightily wiht his control. That's at least teh second game this year where he did and that's not typical for him. Two major gaffes - the change he left up to Downs that went for a double and the bases loaded walk. Putting aside the fact that he lost a batter after getting him down 0-2, he absolutely, positively had to make a quality pitch on 3-2 and he missed the corner by 2 feet. The situation screamed for him to throw his best pitch (change) and he didn't. I thought that was the ballgame right there.

Howard's fine with the glove but, please stop talking about how he's improved defensively. His arm is a huge liability. The funny part is, thanks to a brilliant play by Schneider, the only Howard throw that cost the team a run was the one he didn't make. That first run was on Howard and his fear of throwing to second base - a well-founded fear, of course.

[Meyer]

I more and more get the feeling that the Mets players are either picking up their game, you know giving 110%, to show-case their talents in the hopes of getting picked up by the Phillies one day or sucking so bad that they get released and picked up by the Phillies. Or is it too early in the morning for this sort of musing.

[curt]

If I'm Cholly, I tell Howard to forget about even trying to throw to 2B. If it hasn't happened in 30 years, it aint going to happen in the next 30.

[Meyer]

I would just have the pitcher run toward 2nd and have Howard flip the ball to him to get the force. He is quite accurate with that toss.

[curt]

I see the excuse du jour is that we've played a lot of road games. Of course, last season the only games we won in April were the road games, but what the heck, maybe it was warmer on the road last year, and we got better umps in the road games last year too.

[NEPP]

Hamels #1 problem:

109 pitches thrown

70 Fastballs
26 Changeups
6 Curveballs
7 Cutters

Way too many fastballs and not nearly enough changeups. What is it with him and Madson refusing to use their best pitch?

[NEPP]

Madson:

10 Cutters (fx had them as sliders but they're cutters)
3 four seam Fastballs
8 Changeups
2 two seam fastballs

Of the 10 cutters, 3 were to start off an AB, he started the inning with 3 straight to let the guy onbase. 3 pitches all the same in a row to the same hitter...its called VARIATION Ryan.

He got 2 swinging strikes in the inning...guess what pitch they were on.

He got 2 ground outs...guess what pitch they were on.

Yup...HIS CHANGEUP.

[Shawn]

NEPP: I believe Hamels loves getting strike outs instead of pitching to contact so he likes to set up with the FB even though his accuracy isn't that good.

[Cipper]

Anyone think Hamels is getting a little more confidence in his cutter? It looked like a real nice pitch when he threw it and struck out Derosa in the 6th.

[awh]

"He got 2 swinging strikes in the inning...guess what pitch they were on."

Ummmm, NEPP, let me guess:

Was it the pitch that a fansgraphs study concluded generates more swings-and-misses than any other pitch in MLB - the Ryan Madson changeup?

[Sophist]

flipper - he's making more contact early in the count. you'll note by his BA and SLG that it's not necessarily good contact. for now, it's just keeping counts low (no walks, no SO).

I think Hamels' start was very encouraging. I'll leave it at that. The zone hurt his count early (Lincecum didn't need to worry cos the Phils were swinging and missing). Hamels' strikes looking% last night was down from this year (and I had no problem with his location yesterday).

Renteria and Torres had very good PA in the 6th. Location is the explanation around these parts, but go look at Renteria's two-pitch PA in the 6th.

8 GB, 8 FB (0 HR), 2 LD, 10 SO.

Very rarely does that kind of BIP data lead to a 6 IP, 4 R game. He's not there yet, but I was encouraged.

[Sophist]

NEPP - I think it's possible that Hamels' FB usage (65% above up from 57% career norm) was because he had to throw strikes. He does it sometimes, but most times guys need to throw a strike they don't throw breaking stuff. Or at least that was my understanding.

[holy mackrel]

I wonder - if Hamels continues down this road of 5. Era's & his meltdowns over the length of his current contract, would the Phillies still re-sign him when its renewal time?

[Hugh Mulcahy]

I got the sense that Hamels was struggling to command his change as the game wore on. He did throw a few very good cutters. He's learning that he shouldn't throw it in the strike zone. It's only effective if it starts on the inside corner and veers off at the RH hitters' hands.

[Jack]

Shawn: If you're not a GB pitcher, and have the stuff of a guy like Hamels, you SHOULD try and get strikeouts and not pitch to contact.

[MG]

Sophist - Yeah Chooch recognized early on that Hamels wasn't getting any calls from DeMuth (he held the ball a couple of times & even glared back at DeMuth after the 2nd inning which is very unusual for Chooch). Thought he maybe got 1-2 calls in the first 3 innings on 7-8 pitches that could have gone either way.

Still, NEPP made a point that did seem pretty valid in retrospect. Watching the game last night & Lincecum was doing a better job of hitting his spot where the catcher set up. Ruiz often had to shift around a bit. Not sure if he was doing that on purpose to prevent the Giants' hitters from taking a chic glance back or if Hamels was just missing location. Either way it seemed like it might have helped Lincecum get a more borderline calls even though he got squeezed a couple of times too.

[MG]

Sophist - You did leave out though that Hamels gave up 4 BBs and that wind helped to keep the ball in the park. Wind killed that ball that Werth misplayed in the 3rd. Don't know if it goes out but it likely would have an XHB anyway.

I generally saw more of the same with Hamels last night that you have seen this year - struggles to makes a pitch in a key situation and so-so location on his fastball that hurts him when the umpire has a very tight strike zone.

DeMuth's zone last night reminded me of the Nats' game where both Hamels/Marquis got squeezed by a tight strike zone & both teams' hitters really benefited.

Doesn't mean that at times he isn't pitching well but he runs alot of large counts early and is gone by the 6th.

[Sophist]

106 pi (25 o), 72 strikes (20 l / 17 sw), 8 GB, 8 FB, 4 LD, 11 SO, 1 BB
113 pi (18 o), 67 strikes (18 l / 12 sw), 8 GB, 8 FB, 2 LD, 10 SO, 4 BB

I'm not saying Hamels was a victim of the zone, but from the line it looks like the difference between the two was (1) Lincecum's ability to get swinging strikes, (2) Lincecum's ability to get contact early in the count, (3) Hamels' inability to get the called strike.

I think, if not for those two good PA in the 6th, the story of the day would be how Hamels pitched pretty well (6 IP, 1 R) but either couldn't locate his FB or got screwed pitch count wise bc of a tight zone (leading to an early exit). Torres had a solid PA (although that ball 4 was a straight up miss on Hamels) and Renteria did his best Jeter impression by taking an inside FB and hitting it opposite field. So the story is that Hamels' can't get outs when he needs to, which has been the story for some time now.

Those Giants hitters are a scrappy bunch.

[thephaithful]

Lincecum(R) was on his game - and Howard raked him deep and almost had 2 dingers but settled for a double.

Alfeldt(L) couldn't buy an out all inning, but strikes Howard out on 3 pitches (although if he threw that curve for strikes 1 and 2 against other hitters he would have gotten someone else).

haha r/l splits at its finest.

[Sophist]

MG - Ruiz was sometimes moving during Hamels' delivery to mix up the batter. I'm not sure about Hamels' command or Lincecum's command (I didn't pay close enough attention to their catchers' targets), but Lincecum got only 2 more strikes looking than Hamels and faced many more batters. He just didn't throw as many pitches that were either not swung at or not hit into play.

I'm not trying to say there wasn't a huge difference between Hamels and Lincecum last night. Lincecum has that nasty split and was striking guys out after 4 pitches. Hamels' BB number is a consequences of the stats I posted. Hamels would get high count appearances and couldn't make the out pitch 100% of the time.

MG - what Giants' FB did the wind keep in the park? Do you think pitchers can control their HR/FB rate?

[Shawn]

Jack: I'm with you. Although I do not have the stats with me, it seems as though when the bat actually hits the ball, it seems like a big hit. At some point, pitching fundamentals have to come in and I think it would only help him become a better pitcher if he can throw some more changeups to keep the ball down in the zone.

[thephaithful]

Sophist, i enjoy your posts, but trying to anaylze batted ball results and swing %s in April is pretty bogus in my eyes.

I think someone posted his BAPIP was .560 for last nites game - if they were trying to make the case that Hamels was a victim of bad luck, then they are fooling themselves with numbers that arent supposed to be used with data less than a full season - and that is probably even too small.

[Lake Fred]

"Why does Hamels get called a lot of clever feminine names?"

Our 2008 WS hero, Colbert got caught in a photo by a photographer wearing a small dog backpack with one of those Reese Witherspoon Legally Blonde tiny dogs poking out his head. That sealed the deal in doubting Colbert's masculinity.

[phlipper]

"Renteria and Torres had very good PA in the 6th. "

Hamels went 0-2 and then was unable to get Torres out because Torres was able to foul two pitches off before he watched three straigh balls.

"(Lincecum didn't need to worry cos the Phils were swinging and missing). "

And this makes it seem as if Lincecum had nothing to do with that. The Phils were swinging and missing (how many swinging third-strike strikeouts did Lincecum have -- it seemed like a ton?) because Lincecum's pitchers were so good. Hamels' pitches weren't.

Again, the ultimately meaningful stat for evaluating a pitcher's performance is the number of earned runs allowed (at least if you've controlled for defense). Other stats might help to be predictive of future performance, and sure, luck can affect ERA - but at certain point, luck and peripherals don't cut it as an explanation for an extended period of a high ERA.

With each game that Hamels has an ERA above, say. 4.0, it just become harder and harder to buy any conclusion other than he isn't performing well. 4.32 ERA last year, and 5.28 so far this year. .752 and .843 OPS against. Just a shade over 6 innings per outing last year and 30.2 innings pitched in 5 starts this year.

Is there any point, Sophist, where if Hamels doesn't bring his ERA down significantly and increase his innings pitched significantly, that you will say it isn't simply a matter of bad luck if his BABIP remains unusually high and his peripherals look better than what could be predicted be his ERA?

[Bay Slugga]

Madson's cutter really confuses me. He throws it so often, and he isn't getting good results with it.

[Pizzda]

"If I'm Cholly, I tell Howard to forget about even trying to throw to 2B. If it hasn't happened in 30 years, it aint going to happen in the next 30.".

His fielding has improved in the last 2 years. If he works on his throw, it can improve in less than 30.

"

"Why does Hamels get called a lot of clever feminine names?"

Our 2008 WS hero, Colbert got caught in a photo by a photographer wearing a small dog backpack with one of those Reese Witherspoon Legally Blonde tiny dogs poking out his head. That sealed the deal in doubting Colbert's masculinity."

True. He should be more like Michael Vick.

[phlipper]

"That sealed the deal in doubting Colbert's masculinity."

I think Klaus had the ultimate post on this subject:

"Hamels is handsome in a sort of feminine way--a fact that sparks a kind of insensate panic among a certain segment of nominally heterosexual men, which receives conscious expression via homophobic and misogynistic rant. "

What more needs to be said?

[bay_area_phan]

The difference between his 2008 & 2009 BABIPs is like 1 to 2 non-homerun hits per game. With walks & homers constant, that stat alone cannot explain a 1.23 rise in ERA. It's not the hits; it's the timing of those hits. In the past, he would allow a hit or two and then get himself out of the jam. Now he allows a hit or two and all hell breaks loose. I suppose some will argue that the timing of hits is a matter of chance & it will even out over the long term. But when he follows the identical pattern game after game after game, at some point we have to conclude that it's NOT a matter of chance.

[Bubba]

We did win yesterday, a fluke of a win to be sure, but the road trip would have been a lot more of a downer if we lost.

Any word on our injured(s) return - Blanton and Lidge in time for tomorrow?

News on JA ?

JC to be OK or go back to the DL?

[NEPP]

yo, new thread.