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« Mission accomplished: An April of .500 or better | Main | Pitching fears palpable after Phillies pummeled 9-1 »

Friday, April 30, 2010

Comments

NEPP. Please. Posting two times every time Lee gets an out isn't enough. Please write two posts every time he records a strike. I don't feel miserable enough yet.

NEPP: I'll say the same thing about KK that I said in his last start: If he can't throw strikes he's worthless.

The difference between you, Jack and the other morons and myself is that you think it's all about strikeouts. It isn't. It's all about strikes. His ratio was a little better tonight than his last start (and his results were better), but still not good enough.

"We played a bad game pitching-wise and hitting-wise." - Charlie Manuel

He's not the Skipper for nothin', folks.

Perfect through 2. 3 K so far.

He was throwing strikes...they were just landing in the seats, as usual.

He just sucks.

Clout, you telling me you're not worried?

Old-fashioned ugly tonight all-around. I am still pissed at Madson though. This team just couldn't afford to lose Madson and he is likely out for at least a month if not a bit more. This "give Lidge the benefit of the doubt" is pretty ridiculous. Just have no other choice at this point.

That's all well and good nepp, but we got deaf, dumg and blind kids from Seattle.

Also, it might be worth mentioning, because it hasn't been on Beerleaguer, but this team hasn't been scoring many runs lately and it's slightly possible that may be contributing to some of the recent losses. I realize this runs strongly counter to the prevailing view on this blog. But there you are.

Still, a 12-10 April is quite good for the Phillies.

clout remembers the '23 Phillies. He's seen worse.

Dukes: Worried about the Phillies? Not at all. They are the team to beat and off to their best start in years.

I did find Vic's route on that hit to CF a bit puzzling, though.

NEPP: Um, no he isn't throwing strikes. Please look at his strike/ball ratio for past 2 starts.

An interesting stat would be whether or not in total, players on average have had better career career stats after being traded away than they had during their careers as a Phillie.

Clout, I am aware that you are never as bad as your losses and never as good as your wins / you are always inbetween somewhere. At the same time, I'm just not sure how this team runs off any kind of winning streak while running KK and Jamie Moyer out there AND having a bullpen like we have. So while I see your point about the record not being terrible, don't you have to admit that there is reason for concern?

I still hate Rod Barajas. He sucked when we had him. Now, he kills us. I hate him.

" They are the team to beat and off to "

Phew. The first time I read that, I thought clout wrote "they are the team to beat off to."

All this second guessing on the Lee trade is silly. Gillies is tearing it up at Reading just as Jack predicted he would, Aumont is a stud and Ramirez is doing just fine.

In fact, let me check the stats on them.....um, I'll get back to you in June.

Offense hasn't been great but it is to see this team playing much better than .500 with a 3/4/5 of Moyer/KK/Figueroa and what looks a pretty mediocre bullpen. This also misses JRoll in a huge way. More Castro plays and the mord his numerous offensive and defensive deficiencies become apparent.

Need to win tomorrow because they are getting swept otherwise.

clout the fact that you're bashing someone else's opinions on a player while you continue to defend KK is hilarious. Just admit that he sucks and that you were wrong.

Mets longest win streak since 2008.

can't go to bed until lee gives up a hit. might be a while.

" Just admit that he sucks and that you were wrong."

Yeah. That's going to happen.

And Kendrick's going to win the Cy Young this year.

Dukes: When Blanton and Happ come back, KK is gone and Moyer is your #5. Despite what you read on this blog, Moyer's numbers are well above average for a #5 starter.

I do admit to being worried about the bullpen, but I was worried about the bullpen all off-season and neither the Contreras nor the Baez signings eased my concerns.

Lee perfect through 3. 4 Ks now.

I almost hope he has a perfect game. Poetic justice would have him traded to the Mets at the deadline and him beating us to give them the division on the last day of the season (in a 1 game playoff). Maybe then Rube would realize how freaking stupid he was.

NEPP: Wait, let me understand this. To you the phrase "If he can't throw strikes he's worthless" equals "you continue to defend KK"?

You an even bigger cretin that your posts usually imply.


Fair enough, Clout. The real problem here is depth I think. By trading away Lee and to a lesser degree Drabek, Rube left no room for injury in our starting staff. Happ might be out for a while and what if someone else gets hurt? They are playing with fire.

So, now you're gonna pretend you havent defended him for the past 18 months.

Interesting.

That's all well and good nepp, but we wouldn't have seen KK's new pitch if Lee were still here.

Well curt, we still get to see Madson, Lidge, and Cole throw their new cutters. I mean, that's pretty fun still, right?

The Phils played one of the worst games I've seen them play in a while. It reminded me a lot of that game they played in Florida last season when a handful of them went on a UFC bender the night before. They looked totally dead and at the end looked like they couldn't wait to stop playing. No fight whatsoever. The only bright spark was David Herndon chewing up some frames but that's pretty sad when your team's Rule 5 Draft Pick mopping up is the stand out. Still I like what I see in the guy for some reason.

As for Madson, he deserves to hear it for his rather dumb actions after blowing a save. I myself took my anger out on a wall once and broke a finger and nothing will make a man feel more stupid than that. It's a hard lesson that's learned the hard way sometimes.

It's too early to think about this, but I think there's a good chance Lee signs with the Mets in the offseason. The Red Sox are pretty filled out with their staff and I think the Yankees might be as well. If he's talking a 100 million contract that leaves the Mets.

NEPP: Go back and look at my posts. The only thing I've ever argued is that making blanket statements about KK -- or any pitcher -- according to his K/9 ratio is stupid. I have never said a thing about his future other than he lacks stuff and is totally dependent on command for success and that he needs to learn to get lefties out. Again, he can be a back end rotation guy or a ROOGY if he throws strikes. That's about what he's worth. And if he can't throw strikes, which he hasn't so far this year except for one game, then he will not be in the big leagues for very long.

Now feel free to make chit up.

Our current bullpen:

Brad Lidge - Question mark coming off DL
JC Romero - Question mark coming off DL
Danys Baez - Melts down on a whim, can't find strike zone
David Herndon - 1 pitch guy who should be in AAA refining slider...promising though
Nelson Figueroa - Looks like he'll be used till his arm falls off...shaky but solid so far.
Antonio Bastardo - Solid rookie that UC is terrified to use.
Jose Contreras - Seemingly only reliable guy back there who has plus stuff...scary thought.

Lee had 50 pitches through 3. I'm a bit concerned that he would need to throw 135 pitches for the perfect game.

I have to say I miss going to games at Safeco...its a wonderful place to catch a game. Pricy beer though.

5 Ks through 3.1 IP now.

This is hilarious. clout is actually trying to say that he hasn't been defending KK as a valid major league pitcher for years.

But I do have to say, the insight that pitchers are better if they throw strikes is brilliant.

Next clout will tell us that KK could be a good pitcher if he allowed fewer hits, gave up fewer walks, allowed fewer HRs, and had better pitches.

And the perfect game is over. Guess it was actually a good trade.

I did hear that Lee is on a pitch count tonight...100 pitches.

4 IP, 67 pitches, 5 K, 1 H, 0 R so far.

Make that 68 pitches (17 per inning). Keeps that pace up and he'll just about go 6 on that pitch count.

Flipper: This is beyond your understanding, but finesse pitchers must have superior command to succeeed. Again, it's the strikes, not the strikeouts.


Clout - You are assuming though that Happ is going to come back and be healthy. The staff should be better when Blanton comes back but he also has an injury that is easily to reaggravate.

Greg V - Madson is a veteran who should know better. Throwing a tantrum where you kick and throw stuff around is just plain poor judgement. Myers took lots of crap for doing similiar stuff in Philly. I did find it kind of odd that the Phils outed the reason though right away instead of being vague like they were with other players in the past.

Clout: It's all about strikes? I thought it was all about getting lefties out. That's what you told us last year. And before that it was all about getting ground balls, because he was a sinkerball pitcher.

How about just admitting you were wrong, and that the guy isn't capable of being an MLB starter? You bought into the hype after 2007 and for some reason haven't been able to admit that he was simply lucky, and has never been good enough to be an MLB pitcher.

You can say whatever you want about my insistence on Strikeouts, but the point is he's not good enough. To me, it was obvious from his K rate as far back as 2007 that he simply was not good enough to do what he did in 2007 again--and that he wasn't good enough to be a starter for a contending team like the Phillies. I made a simple statement, and have been consistent with it: he isn't good enough. You can keep changing around your position all you want, and claim you've never defended him, but that's a joke. You've either been wrong about him all along or you can pretend like you've never made a definitive prediction or had an opinion on the matter at all. Either way, you have no credibility on this issue.

Jack: My position hasn't changed a bit. If you devined from his 2007 K rate that he wouldn't be able to throw strikes in 2010, God bless you. You should be a major league scout.

Clout: It wasn't hard to divine from his K rate in the minors and in 2007 and in 2008 and in 2009 that he wouldn't be good in 2010. It was actually quite easy.

Jack: What did his K rate predict about his 2009 performance?

Clout: You mean what he did in 20 innings out of the bullpen? Well, his K rate was actually better, as was his GB rate, which would indicate he should get somewhat better results--which he did. As it turns out, though, that was a mirage. Which we knew it would be, because he had a much, much bigger sample between the minors and majors which said he actually was bad. Which he is.

He's a bad pitcher--he doesn't get strikeouts, walks too many guys, can't get lefites out, and doesn't get nearly enough ground balls for a supposed sinkerballer. Pick and choose whatever reason you want (God knows there's plenty to choose from), but he's not good. You've defended the guy for years now--given his results, the burden of proof is probably on you to explain why you have any credibility at all on this issue.

I find it funny that you think I've been wrong on him, when for years all I've said is guys with his K rate rarely ever make it in the majors. It's just a fact. It rarely happens. I wish it weren't the case with him, because he's a Phillie and seems like a decent guy. But that's just baseball--if pitchers aren't good enough to get even 4 strikeouts per 9 innings, they probably aren't going to survive very long in the major league. It's just all there is to it.

"How about just admitting you were wrong, and that the guy isn't capable of being an MLB starter? "

Yeah. That's gonna happen.

And Kendrick will win the Cy Young next year, also.

holy mackerel - "now rube, what was the reason we traded cliff away again?"

rube - "mr mackerel - we um -er -replenishing our minors.."

holy mackerel - " yeah, right - good luck trying to sell that story"

We really could have used Clifford tonight - damn..

Miss you guys...

lee was perfect through 3 1/3 ans through 7, 8 K's, 3 hits and all goose eggs...

"Mets fans are beside themselves, as their high priced team is going to have a game and a half lead on May 1st!"

The Phillies payroll is larger than the Mets this year.

About all this silly arguing over KK - It's about outs! He's not getting enough outs without first ceding runs. And that's not good no matter how you parse it. And that would be ok if he were the only problem. But everyone except Doc and a few RP's we see briefly is struggling to get 3 outs per inning.

And good for Cliff Lee. *sigh*

So clout, you're basically saying that, as it stands, KK is not a big league pitcher. Like about 100 other guys, if he can just do X better, he might make it.

"...he lacks stuff and is totally dependent on command for success and he needs to learn to get lefties out. Again, he can be a back end rotation guy or a ROOGY if he throws strikes. That's about what he's worth. And if he can't throw strikes, which he hasn't so far this year except for one game, then he will not be in the big leagues for very long.

clout: KK had a 61:34 strike:ball ratio tonight. That's actually a pretty excellent ratio. His problem wasn't a lack of strikes; it was that his strikes did't fool anyone.

To be effective, KK not only needs to throw strikes; he also needs to induce ground balls. When he does both those things -- which is about once every 4 or 5 outings -- he is pretty good. When he throws strikes without inducing ground balls, he is merely bad. When he does neither, he is is horrific.

As has been discussed ad nauseam, there ARE pitchers who can succeed with KK-like strikeout ratios, but they are extreme ground ball pitchers like Aaron Cook. KK is not that. Among non-strikeout, non-ground ball pitchers, I think we've been able to come up with a grand total of 1 pitcher in the last 25 or 30 years who was a reasonably successful big league stater: Paul Byrd. Of course, it should be noted that Byrd, in his prime years, did have significantly better strikeout rates than KK. More importantly, he had one of the lowest walk rates of any major leaguer in the last 50 years. If KK could match that walk rate, he, too, could probably be a passable back-end starter like Paul Byrd was. But that's like saying that, if Pedro Feliz could hit 40 homeruns per year, he would be an above average third baseman. He can't, and isn't.

You would think that after the last few years, this team has earned some patience from the fans. An aggravating loss made more so by a game thread dominated by the doomsayers. Cliff Lee is gone, get over it. It's April, relax.

Kendrick isn't a major leaguer. I tried to read this thread but, it was threatening to destroy my decade-long puke-less streak.
FVCK youse all. Fvck youse twice and up the poop chute.
I look forward to the return of Kentucky Joe. In the interim, Halladay better throw a shut out tomorrow.

If the mets were smart, they would have laid down vs. Lidge in a 8-1 game. Give Cholly the confidence to use him in a tight spot over the weekend. Then again, they probably know him like we do. He'll use him no matter what.

April 2010: 12-10
April 2009: 11-9
March/April 2008: 15-13
April 2007: 11-14
April 2006: 10-14
April 2005: 10-14

KK as evidenced by his 92-93 fastball is overthrowing. He needs better placement of his pitches than the 3-4 mph he can get. I think he is shortarming the ball. Watch him, there is no extension of his arm in windup. He kind of is throwing like a catcher. The ball is coming out right behind his ear. He needs to look at film and see the difference. It's a 162 game season people. RELAX

It's been all downhill ever since JW started the thread "An Embarrassment Of Riches."

It's been a different kind of embarrassment since then.

bap: That's a pretty good post. Clout thinks we shouldn't make "blanket statements", but that's ridiculous. How about this one:

If a 22-year old can't hit .220 in Single-A, he's not good enough to be a major league player.

Would he disagree with that blanket statement? Probably not.

Once again, Clout has come up with 1 decent player in modern baseball history, Paul Byrd, to whom Kendrick's numbers might compare (but in reality, KK's numbers are worse than his). There are literally thousands of guys with his numbers who didn't succeed.

And yet we're the crazy ones for saying guys with his numbers generally don't succeed? Wow.

The funniest part of clout's argument is that it doesn't account for the obvious: throwing more strikes and getting more strikeouts are related phenomena.

Those who said that KK is not a major league pitcher were right.

Of course, clout is now trying to change his argumentto "KK would be a better pitcher if he were a better pitcher," but clout was wrong when he said, for years, that KK is major league material. End of story.

"The Embarrassment Of Ripped Britches." Holes in the frontend and the backend.

Phlipper: I don't normally agree with most of what you say, but yeah, that's just about right.

More words of wisdom from Clout:

"Freddy Galvis could be a good hitter someday if he just gets more hits."

"Placido Polanco would walk more if he would take more pitches."

"Jamie Moyer could become a power pitcher if he starts throwing 95 MPH."

Hey, you can't make blanket statements, so those things could happen!

The Phillies have the best lineup in the NL East but this pitching staff brings us right back to the pack.

The Phillies have the best lineup in the NL East and should win the division, but this pitching brings them right back to the pack.

Halladay and pray for 4 days of rain??

K/BB ratios:
Paul Byrd = 2.30
Kyle Kendrick = 1.41

So, Kendrick issues 60% more walks per strikeout than Byrd.

Not sure why the two pitchers are being compared, as they had markedly different results.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend, right Jack?

We obviously disagree on the value of Howard, but we're in agreement on whether Kyle Kendrick is a major league quality pitcher.

On KK, I think its pretty much everyone in agreement besides KK and clout and I'm not so sure that KK doesn't realize he sucks.

I'm not sure, NEPP, if KK does realize it. Maybe, but here's his quote:

"I feel great right now. I'm just not having any results. My stuff's fine. I don't know what it is. I just have to keep getting after it. That's all I can do."

Visiting Mets fan here. Am curious, is there a lot of blog sentiment against the Lee for Halladay trade?

Its probably 70/30 against the trade to be honest. Its looking worse now than it did in December when it was probably 50/50 with some of us (myself included) accepting that we have payroll limitations and we do need to restock our farm system after 2 blockbuster trades in 12 months that gave up 7 of our top 10 prospects.

Still, the return wasn't very good for what we gave up (Ace pitcher) and we are built to win NOW, not in 2012.

Oh, and on a positive Mets comment, this looks like its gonna be "THE" year for David Wright. Scary thought for non-Mets fans.

From the moment it happened, Tripworks. Prevailing sentiment of joy at acquiring Halladay and a varying array of emotions at losing Lee, from deep disappointment to frustration, even anger, from understanding to not.

Right now, every other top team has 2 Aces and we have Halladay and a huge mystery in Cole Hamels...that will bite us in October, assuming we're playing then.

And the lack of depth is already killing us this year as demonstrated by having a bottom 3 in the rotation of Kendrick, Moyer and Figueroa thanks to injuries.

Halladay and a Hurricane.

The keys to this season have really always been Hamels and Health. If Hamels returns to 2008 form and if the team stays relatively healthy, they are going to get back to the World Series. So far, that hasn't happened, and they've been mediocre. Of course, its April, so no need to panic yet, but if these double Hs of doom aren't starting to get settled by the end of next month, the Phils are in serious trouble

Well heck, I was gonna post this before the game, but it's even more true: Halladay's a stud. You guys have him locked up for a few yrs, right? Seems like a good move.

The Howard contract? Not as much, but I can see why the Phils management had to do...

it's all about the starters.We know kendrick is iron pig ready,Its time for jamie to step up or move over cause the phils are talkin to pedro.Lee will be available this offseason.We gotta spend the money cause cole is not a number two.

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