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Thursday, April 29, 2010

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Generally speaking, bay area media and fans are far less critical than East Coast media and fans. But Bochy is taking a lot of heat here for his decision to remove Lincecum from yesterday's game. Bochy's a pretty solid manager, but that was a very bad decision.

eat the bear indeed, Grizzly Werth!

Well, not the way they drew it up on the locker-room whiteboard before the game, but it'll do. It's a karmic chit that we cashed in from the Madson-blown Braves game last week.

Ryan and Werth showing good signs, and although Ibanez has had a horrible year, he's made some productive contributions that don't show up in the box score. Hitting will come around when we get our starters back, but the pitching on this team has me worried...

Why would he take heat for removing the best pitcher in the game from the 9th inning with a 3 run lead? A pitcher that had dominated the other team all game long?

That's so weird.

Oh...and thanks Boch!

One small silver lining for Raul:

On-base Percentage:

2009 - .347
2010 - .346
Career - .346

At least he's still getting on base.

Odd split for Victorino:

None on: .482 OPS
RISP: .855 OPS

Whether you think Bochy's decision was good or bad, Wilson should be able to come in the game and not give up 3 runs.

Yeah...so should Madson. I wouldnt have removed Lincecum but then I would be pretty mad if my closer couldn't hold a 3 run lead. Good thing we dont have issues like that with Madson.

maybe bochy wanted to keep lincecum's Pitcher Abuse Points down - or whatever that dumb stat is called.

so what is the latest status on the injury front?

Bochy made a spotty call but their plenty of other scapegoats including Wilson, Velez, and Schierholtz.

In fairness to Wilson, he has been worlds better than anyone who has closed for the Phillies since 2008. And, if one of our pitchers had given up that 3-run double to Werth, he would find no shortage of defenders on Beerleaguer. It was an awfully flukey hit. Dare I say, Wilson pitched into some bad luck.

Sadly, I think Lincecum probably could have gotten out of that inning with maybe 5 pitches. The DP ball was an almost guarantee I think...and then he would have made easy work of the next batter to end it.

Bochy made the textbook "correct" decision and it burned him.

Yes, sure, Wilson should be able to hold the lead. Any pitcher should have a reasonable chance of holding a 3 run lead for one inning. Regardless, I was ecstatic when Bochy popped out of the dugout to remove Lincecum. He gave them a chance to win that they didn't appear to have with Lincecum in the game.

Just to point out right now...

Jayson Heyward is currently hitting a robust .224, OBP .358, SLG .448, with 1 hit in the last 7 games. So, why again isn't he in AAA? Don't forget that he's burning his age 26 or 27 year of being a Brave so he can produce this kind of stuff for the hapless Braves. But what does Bobby Cox care? It's his last year.

For all the crap the Phillies have taken for giving Howard his big contract, the Braves' decision to play Heyward will arguably cost them more over the same time period.

I don't see Schierholtz making that catch, but yes, there were plenty of other scapegoats besides Bochy.
Of course I was thrilled when Lincecum was taken out of the game.

I think the phils should send Eugenio Velez an MVP trophy for yesterday's performance.

Dan in Philly - ever since his at bat vs. Moyer where he was ahead 3-0 he's been in a funk. Moyer toyed w/ him there and he hasn't been the same hitter since.

Actually, Bochy's decision was wrong in more ways than one. Even if he was right to remove Lincecum, why not bring in Affeldt, with Utley & Howard due up next? Does anyone seriously believe that Howard would have reached base against Affeldt?

The ever-popular paint-by-numbers approach to bullpen management is positively asinine. In any other inning of the game, there would have been no question that you bring in Affeldt there. Only in the 9th inning is a manager not allowed to choose a reliever based on matchups.

****OBP .358, SLG .448****

I'd be happy with a .806 OPS out of a rookie in his first full year. Especially as its likely to improve as he continues to adjust to MLB pitching. Their entire team sucks right now, not just Heyward.


Oh, and its clear they want to try one last run with the Chipper/Bobby Cox Braves teams.

****The ever-popular paint-by-numbers approach to bullpen management is positively asinine. ****

Thank you Mr. LaRussa!

old phan - good point. It probably has not even occurred to Howard that he needs to work on how he throws a baseball. Or maybe he knows that he throws worse than your average high school JV 1B, but has decided to not work on it until after he perfects the rest of his game. In either event, I look forward to the year Sam gets around to teaching him how to throw.

Yes, I'm sure Howard is completely unaware of his throwing issues. I'm sure he NEVER works on it.

Some prospects are obviously more ready for the majors than others, but there is no amount of AAA experience which can guarantee that a hot prospect will make a smooth transition to the majors. Chase Utley hit .239 in his rookie year; Ryan Howard was hitting .229 as late as July 20; even last season's top-rated prospect, Matt Wieters, struggled badly for much of his first season.

Not every rookie struggles, but many do. Given how Heyward has been struggling lately, does anyone really think he would have struggled less if he had stayed in the minors for a few more months? It's better for him to take his lumps now than in August and September.

Dan in Philly: Yeah, an OPS over .800 from Heyward is currently better than Ibanez and Victorino. So why aren't those guys in AAA, right?

The Braves might feel that having Heyward play FOR Bobby Cox and WITH Chipper Jones could help him in his career. Mentoring of rookies is a time honored tradition in baseball. Having a future HoF player who will make the Hall primarily for his great bat work with him all season is not the worst thing in the world. Having a HoF manager help mentor him can't hurt either. Batting .400 in AAA wasn't gonna help him develop anymore than he already did. They made the correct BASEBALL decision and the wrong FINANCIAL decision.


Besides, look how well Weiters is doing now in his 2nd season...he likely NEEDED those ABs last year at the MLB level. Though they might have been smart to hold off till June to prevent him from getting Super 2 status or even hold off till now to hang onto him for that extra service year. I doubt 3 weeks would have been a big deal.

bap: Also, an OBP of .358 isn't really "struggling", is it? That would be the 4th highest OBP on the Phils. He has an OPS+ of 114 as a 20-year old rookie.

We should all hope for "struggles" like that.

Curt, are you saying that there is no way Howard could possibly improve his throws?

An .806 OPS puts him 16th in the Majors among qualified RFs...basically middle of the pack so far. He's striking out way too much (37.3%) but he's also walking a bunch to balance it out (16.0 %). In fact, he is 3rd among RFs with that BB rate.

Jack: Well, yeah, he's clearly doing quite a few good things. But if a guy is hitting .224, I think it's fair to describe him as struggling.

bap: And the fact that he can hit .224 and still have an OPS of .806 means he has fantastic secondary skills. He's almost certainly going to hit better than .224, which means that as more hits come, his overall production will go from average to significantly above-average, again at the age of 20. He's a star.

To put that in perspective, Placido Polanco is hitting .313, and has an OPS of .790.

There is this (last 10 games):

10 GS, 37 PA, 29 AB, 3 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 7 BB, 12 SO, .103 AVG, .297 OBP, .504 OPS.


Slump or Adjustment Period for a rookie?


"One small silver lining for Raúl:

On-base Percentage:

2009 - .347
2010 - .346
Career - .346

At least he's still getting on base."

A quick check of the stats reveals Ryan's 2010 OBP as a paltry .323 -- further proof (as if any were needed) that, were he not already on the team, Rube would be stupid not to trade Howard for Ibañez, straight up. Good thing petty stuff like SLG & RBI don't matter, or these sorts of comparisons could become a real sticky wicket!

GTown, that's why its a silver lining instead of a good sign. It'd be far worse if he wasn't hitting and wasn't walking either.

Jack: Agreed. That's why I said it's better to let him take his lumps now. He's clearly going to hit later in the season.

A win is a win, but boy, was this game frustrating. Hamels was, well...Hamels. Dominated for a few and had one rough inning that cost him. Lots of goats on both sides of the diamond yesterday. If the Phils lost, we would be talking about Howard striking out with the bases loaded and one out in extras. Werth doing the same in the next AB. Madson's performance, etc.

I'm glad the game ended the way it did, so we can focus on Bochy, Burress for their miscues and Valez and Schneider for their part in the W.

Also, it's nice to have a win (as opposed to a sweep) before an off-day.

NEPP: Are you ok today? You seem to be a little on-edge. Or am I just misreading the tone in your posts?

Just looked at the probable starters for the Mets series. This caught my eye --

Saturday:
Mike Pelfrey (4-0; 0.69 ERA)
Roy Halladay (4-1; 1.80 ERA)

Haven't seen too many Mets games -- has Pelfrey been that good?

A bit tired...its been a very long week with little sleep.

In 1973 the Phillies had a rookie (34 AB & 1 HR in 1972) with an OPS of .697 in 367 ABs. He hit .196 for the entire season. He did hit 18 HRs that year towards a career total of 548. By today's standards, everyone would be clamoring for Mike Schmidt to be sent down to Oklahoma City!

Heyward is doing fine for a 20 yr old rookie, but the Braves probably should have let him spend a month or 2 in AAA just to save some cash in the long run. His production now is good, but not good enough to warrant the start of his arbitration clock earlier.

Pelfrey has been VERY GOOD so far in the early going.

****In 1973 the Phillies had a rookie (34 AB & 1 HR in 1972) with an OPS of .697 in 367 ABs. He hit .196 for the entire season. He did hit 18 HRs that year towards a career total of 548.****

He also had 2 bad knees and a dream.

"NEPP: Are you ok today? You seem to be a little on-edge."

What Phillies fan wouldn't be on-edge with the way they have played lately?

Fear not, good Beerleaguers, Lidge has been activated off the DL!

Either our bullpen problems are solved, or our new favorite subject of debate is back.

RBill - Pelfrey has a 90+% strand rate and very low BABIP. He's been very lu...oh forget it, he's AMAZING. Best pitcher in baseball, clearly.

Lidge back-
The Phillies will option left-handed reliever Antonio Bastardo to the minor leagues to make room for Lidge.

Though two things do JUMP out with Pelfrey so far:

An unsustainably low .249 BABIP and a fairly high BB/9 rate of 4.5. His strand rate is a tad high too at 93.6%.

So, he's probably poised to fall off the cliff at some point.

The video highlights on the Phillies site have the Howard throw home/great tag by Schneider labeled "Howard's strong throw" then goes on to say "Ryan Howard fires home to get Juan Uribe on a close call at the plate, keeping the Phillies ahead 7-6 in the 11th"

It's almost like they paid this guy $125 million or something. Jeez.

The point on Heyward is that his production has not been where it needs to be to justify trading 3 weeks of him at 20 for a full year of him at age 27, when he truly will be a monster.

old phan - what I said is that Cholly should tell Howard to not even think about throwing to 2B, just get the sure out. The risk/reward ratio in his trying for the lead runner is not going to change significantly. He's been working on throwing the baseball with accuracy since he was a skinny kid. Considering that he's now 30 it's safe to say this is the best it gets, and it has nothing to do with lack of desire, effort or anything else in his control.

So we send down our only healthy LH reliever for Brad Lidge...odd choice. I'd rather they put Romero back on the DL personally.

That was still a pretty great play by Howard (though a better one by Schneider). He picked the ball to his left and threw it hard to home. It was slightly off target, but not far enough to prevent the tag from being made. Lets give the guy some credit.

NEPP Agreed.
If JC isn't ready to pitch why is he on the active roster?

what is the deal w/ Romero -- is he hurt again?

He's supposedly healthy but its clear from his 2 outings so far that he's no where near his old self. Nothing on his fastball and no snap on his slider.

Good points above. Anyone who claims Hamels hasn't been unlucky, he's just bad, has to think that Pelfrey is AMAZING.

My initial comment on Pelfrey was anecdotally based on 4-5 innings of one of his starts that I happened to watch. I retract it after looking at his actual statistics which show that its likely a mirage.

Hamels has been unlucky and he's also done a lot of it too himself by allowing big innings. He's failed to limit damage.

flipper - I never said Lincecum shouldn't get credit for swings and misses. I was explaining why the tight zone didn't affect him as much as Hamels. His ability overcame it. I was analyzing two performances from yesterday and seeing why one got results and one did not. If you'd quit trying to see everything through the prism of your biases you'd realize that. I never referenced luck or BABIP. I noted that Hamels had better batted ball data yesterday than Lincecum and nearly as many SO in fewer innings, and then looked for an explanation as to their differing fates. If you'd look, I actually made a nod to the fact that Hamels' inability to get out of the 6th only continues the story line BAP alluded to: he can't get an out when necessary. I'm looking for explanations that fit what's going on out there, and I'm not entirely convinced of the luck argument. I don't know why you're ascribing to me positions I've don't hold.

the phaithful - I disagree. I think analyzing batted ball data is meaningful after about a month's worth of PA. Explain Howard's results to date in any other way. My posts on his approach and his batted ball data, his BB% and K%, are all pretty consistent. Looking at ERA or BA this early is foolish without looking further, but if you think looking at batted ball data is foolish you should make an argument as to why. Why do you think GB% is a full season stat?

How about Howard taking a few practice throws down to 2B during infield warm ups between innings? If nothing else, the fans could place bets on the number of balls Ibanez has to throw back in.

Roy Halladay 1.80
Cole Hamels 5.28
Kyle Kendrick 7.71
Jamie Moyer 5.25
Nelson Figueroa 3.38

This is according to Yahoo Sports - the link on this here BL page.. these are our starters.. When is Blanton back? and what is Happ's status?

Look at the ledge for Halliday compared to everyone else...

I think Ruben's foresight trading Lee strictly because of $$ was short sighted!

Scary..

This should be repeated

Three cheers for the Konkrete Kid, bravo to the back up to the back up shortstop, and excellent show by the master escape artist himself, The Great Herndini. All that was missing was a bearded lady, but a bearded right fielder will do.

Great stuff right there.

Pelfrey has also only struck out 6.58/9 and has yet to allow a HR all year. Although his FIP is only 3.15 (4.31 xFIP). Regression sure to come. Let's hope.

Happ: We've heard NOTHING on him...guessing weeks.

Blanton: Got blown out in Reading last night...probably next week he'll be activated...maybe even this weekend.

How much of your Pelfrey stats are aided by his last start when he was in trouble almost every inning? Fair is fair. Look at his Charlie Babbits before last Sunday night starts against the Braves and then talk trash. And by the way, he'll have his chance to shut you guys up on Saturday.

re Ibanez talk ... channeling my inner clout

Ibanez' last 8 games: .304/.433/.522 (30 PA) ...

sometimes there's reality and there's what get thrown around in here

Wildness notwithstanding, Bastardo has been one of our few effective relievers. This doesn't really make a lot of sense to me.

I see why the Phillies like Herndon's potential but, if you're a playoff contender, you need to put your 7 best relievers in the bullpen. Herndon is probably around our 9th or 10th best.

Hamels is satisfied with 4 BB in 6 innings? He may have gotten squeezed here or there, but his pitch counts are much too high for the number of innings he throws. Maybe he meant he was satisfied because he didn't give up 4 taters.
Who gets demoted when Hoss comes back?

I did see Blanton's interview last night on CSN and he said he's only pitching for feel right now and not results, FWIW.

Who said Romero was hurt again? He had a 1-2-3 inning just two days ago. My guess is that the decision comes down to 2 things: 1 - confidence in Romero and 2 - the need for a guy who can go multiple innings considering the state of the rotation.

Sophist: Because when you're looking at around 30IP+, that means that things like GB/FB ratio can be skewed by multiple percentage points from just a few oddball plays. A good change up away can easily be popped up on a real off balance swing even tho the majority of the time it will get rolled over on the ground. Same thing with your swing %s, a player can go into a few games vs. a certain pitcher and want to swing on a specific pitch right away, so with only a handful of games to look at, that one mindset is going to alter his overall approach more than it really should.

StevetheMets(suck)Fan - I'll be there on Saturday when it's nice and warm - hittin' weather - to watch Pelfrey get lit up. Get back to your own teams' blog, they need the post count.

b_a_p: Agreed. I'm not surprised Bastardo was sent down, but I am disappointed. Herndon should have been left to find his way back to Anaheim. Barring that, it's a damn shame Rube signed Baez for 2 years & a pile of money, or he could have been unceremoniously dumped à la Trashner.

Think I'll be investing in some firefox scripts by @joe_l for the weekend series...

Long homestand coming up... and my season ticket plans plus an extra during the stretch will see me at the ball park 5 games out of the 10 game homestand. Based on probables... I'll see Doc Halladay Not a once....

thephaithful - sure, they could be off, but they also could point to a change in a approach. It really all depends on how likely those "oddball" plays you cite to occur. Hamels has had about 90 balls put in ball, so it would actually take quite a few plays for his numbers to swing wildly. If you look at Hamels' BIP data so far this year, they aren't all that far off his numbers from last year which suggests they aren't as likely as you might think. His FB% is within .1% of last years.

As I said, none of the numbers I've looked at seem so out of tune with what we've seen so far. Howard's slash lines mesh pretty well with his batted ball data. The swing percentage stuff is even less likely to be moved wildly since there are way more pitches than BIP. Howard has already faced almost 350 pitches, and his approach (early contact, usu not particularly good contact) has been pretty consistent across the pitchers he's faced.

In any case, I think these numbers inform our viewing of Howard AB more than his primary numbers do. So far this year, Howard is seeing fewer pitches and hitting more GB. He's making more contact. Aren't these things interesting to note? What else is there to talk about? Hamels' facial expressions?

thephaithful - I posted this before. It's just to show that I'm not on my own on this since a BP.com guy does it too. He doesn't justify it, but fwiw:

Rob (Alaska): We seem to be at that point in the season where it's tough to know what to believe is real. Is there any development with a player or team that you believe is significant despite the small sample size?

Eric Seidman: Normally in the beginning of the season I'm a big advocate of just having fun -- enjoy the games, don't get too caught up in everything. I know Roy Halladay isn't going to finish the year with a 1.13 ERA but man it's fun to think about. Usually, though, early in years it's important to look at what would be considered secondary numbers, like strikeout and walk rates for hitters, BIP rates for pitchers. These are the numbers that COULD point to a change in approach; I'd be more interested in Greinke's GB rate than his ERA after three starts.

I don't know why people keep suggesting we waive Baez. Baez has obviously not pitched well, but you don't waive a guy for not pitching well. You waive him because you believe that, going foward, you have 7+ other relievers who are likely to pitch better than he will. Based on age, velocity, and overall career track record, I have a whole lot more confidence in Baez than just about anyone else in our pen, save for maybe Contreras and Madson (in a non-closer's role). He has simply had a few bad games.

By the way, Seidman has a post up today on Moyer that's partially about a pitcher's RA distribution.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10702

I'm not sure if this would happen or not but I could see when Blanton comes back the Phillies sending Kendrick to AAA and keeping Herndon with the club.

I get the impression they really like Herndon and don't want to let him get away. A guy with a good sinker like he has is valuable for the park. He needs some work on complimentary pitches but since he fits what they need pitching wise for the park they might be apt to try and keep him.

I'm not sure exactly how many options Kendrick has yet but I think he has enough to get sent down. They have Figgy as a long man when Happ is healthy and they have their 5 back together. I'm not sure if they see Kyle as a 5th guy in the rotation or as a bullpen guy. My hunch is the former and he has a ready made spot next year when Moyer is gone. So they might want him as a full time starter in Lehigh Valley still working on stuff.

I'm a little surprised there's not been discussion about Herndon. I thought he did pretty well with the position he was put into. Yeah, he gave up the initial double to the governor of New Jersey, but he got out of it well, and giving up hits to the Fat Panda is really nothing to be ashamed of.

BAP - the casual fan's biases are most evident when it comes to reliever performance.

No doubt Pelfrey has iffy periferals and he should come back to earth a bit. In the past he he would pitch well for a few innings and then lose control.

While he won't sustain his current level of success, he might have turned a corner. He does throw a heavy ball - Kevin Brownish, actually - that gets a lot of ground balls and double play's.

b_a_p: Your unusual display of optimism RE: Baez intrigues me.

On a completely different topic, anyone else finding The Fightin's site to be annoying since the blog tourney? I used to think a lot of it was funny, but now I find it all just kind of annoying and I don't know why. It's kind of a site for the modern Phillies fan - "we're awesome/everyone else sucks no matter what" type of stuff that completely ignores the facts. Phillies fans circa 2007-present.

Gtown - if you read closely, BAP doesn't explicitly display confidence in Baez. Baez is simply elevated over the other options for his spot. BAP's "confidence" in Baez is a result of his lack of confidence in his replacements. Just ask BAP who, if the Phils had to use one as they now are used, he'd like to be "the closer." He probably has a similar answer.

Dan in Philly: "For all the crap the Phillies have taken for giving Howard his big contract, the Braves' decision to play Heyward will arguably cost them more over the same time period." - False.

Sophist: Good point. I suppose, then, that I'm the optimist, as I believe a supposed upper-echelon team such as the Phillies ought to be able to go out & find a better bullpen option than Plural Dany.

"The point on Heyward is that his production has not been where it needs to be to justify trading 3 weeks of him at 20 for a full year of him at age 27, when he truly will be a monster.

Posted by: Jonesman | Thursday, April 29, 2010 at 12:57 PM "

Jonesman, thank you for addressing my basic point this whole time.

Dan/Jonesman: That's not accurate. They don't lose a year of him, they just have to pay him arbitration money a year earlier than they would've had to otherwise.

Brian G: No, they lose a year of him. You need 6 full seasons to qualify for FA. If they'd kept him down a few weeks, he would not have had 6 FULL seasons after his 6th season.

G-Town: It's not really optimism. It's just that, even if we went out of the organization to replace him, who would we find that is likely to do better, going forward? I mean, I've been reading calls among the peanut gallery to dump Baez & sign Juan Cruz. Seriously?

Relievers tend to be inconsistent by nature, plus their stats jump all over the place because they don't pitch many innings. If you were to dump relievers every time they had bad numbers over a 7 or 8-game stretch, you would quickly find that, lo and behold, the guy wasn't washed up after all and the guy you signed to replace him was actually a considerable step down. Wasn't it only a few weeks ago that everyone wanted to cut Contreras before the season even started, as it was clear, from his spring training performance, that he was completely finished?

Gtown - I think you overlook how much money the Phils already had in the pen when they signed Baez. Also, I suggest to take a look at the recent history of bullpen signings (esp. big contract signings) across MLB in the past decade. Maybe we can start with Lidge and Romero, work our way to Mike Gonzalez and JJ Putz, and then go from there. The Phils planned on a pen with Durbin/Contrares/Baez/Romero crew in the 6th and 7th, with Madson in the 8th, and Lidge in the 9th. Baez is a middle reliever, and not a bad option in that role for an "upper echelon team."

NEPP: "So we send down our only healthy LH reliever for Brad Lidge...odd choice. I'd rather they put Romero back on the DL personally."
Personally, I'd have just left Lidge on the DL... or personally, I'd have never given Danys Baez a two year guaranteed contract. But yeah, I guess this is just one of those moves you have to make.

b_a_p: Point taken. However, it hurts to see one of the very few guys in the bullpen who has pitched well (albeit in very limited action) sent down when a guy like Baez is still here. You're correct about the inconsistency of relief pitchers, but I just have a bad feeling watching Baez. Herndon may have issues, but I think he has more potential value than Danys. The problem is that the Phillies don't really have the luxury of waiting it out. They're built to win now, & the bullpen needs help now, & in the long term I see Baez hurting the Phillies more than helping. Still, only time will tell ... & Rube sure gave him enough of it in that contract.

Bastardo was obviously sent down becasue he can be. When Blanton comes off the DL, I'll bet KK gets sent down, for the same reason. Figueroa would then take KK's spot in the rotation until Happ returns.

Sophist: First off, I reject out of hand anything the Phillies claim w/ regard to money, & their supposed lack of it. And no, I'm not suggesting that paying for a big money reliever will equal big performance. What irks me is not so much the issue of money as the issue of years. Why sign Baez (or any FA middle reliever, for that matter) for 2 seasons? Rube appears to have a fetish w/ giving guys longer term deals than he should.

b_a_p: Once the starters are back healthy I'd like to see Figgy remain to take over the long relief role that (presumably) would have been Kendrick's ... but then who would get dumped?

****I'm not sure exactly how many options Kendrick has yet but I think he has enough to get sent down. ****

Options work on a yearly basis...KK can be sent down or brought up as many times as they want this year without burning more than 1 option.

G-Town: It would have to be Herndon. With Lidge, Madson, Romero, Durbin, Contreras & Baez having spots that are relatively safe, the Phillies will eventually have to choose between having a true long reliever (Fig) or a 2nd lefty in the pen (Bastardo). Personally, I'd choose the 2nd lefty, even though it would probably mean losing Figueroa to waivers. Figueroa was a good pickup and has been a nice contributor, but I think people have become overly infatuated with him. He's a fringe major leaguer with poor control & average stuff. The Phillies have already gotten about as much out of him as they can reasonably expect to get.

I think BAPs point is this: that what happened last isn't guaranteed to happen into perpetuity--an insight so revolutionary that even BAP himself sometimes fails to retain it.

Well the starting rotation currently has a:
#1
#2
#5
#5
#5

When Blanton & Happ return it'll look more like:
#1
#2
#3
#3
#5

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