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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

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OK, JW, I'll go over and vote.

We Should be GMs has Carson's annual Phillies prediction posted.

Carson surprised me with this one:

LF/Raul Ibanez- .268, 72 r, 18 hr, 81 rbi.

Also, for all those who bitch about the Phillies' payroll LEVEL (not HOW they allocate it), I was surfing around on some of the other blogs in the contest and found this interesting tidbit on Red Pinstripes Are Cooler:

"Please don’t complain about how the Phillies are not out there buying free agents. Yes, I would have chose Beltre over Polanco and maybe a few certain relievers, but the Phillies are already paying their “home-grown” talent big paychecks. Talent, chemistry, and luck wins World Series titles.

The Yankees have won ONE world series with a payroll over $100 million. Last year."

Also, this nice little tidbit from Phillies Notebook(Murphy):

"Righthander Roy Halladay spoke to the Phillies' minor leaguers yesterday afternoon, using his demotion from the majors to Class A early in his career to encourage them. "

Since 4DR lost in the second round, I'll be pulling for beerleaguer.

"Talent, chemistry, and luck wins World Series titles."

I thought all the statheads agreed that "chemistry" and "clutch performance" were figments of the imagination?

I voted. Now where's my Ehren Wasserman thread!?

I can't believe how many well written blogs there are for just philadelphia sports. Amazing.

"Yes, I would have chose Beltre over Polanco"

That's great, but Beltre didn't choose the Phillies.

JW, where do I "Vote for Pedro"?

I am not the biggest Wheeler fan but I can really appreciate his knowledge of the Phils.

TMac is probably the worst person possible for the job. I'd rather have the boom goes the dynamite kid do play by play.

Beerleaguer has my vote in The Phield until the bitter end.

AWH- what surprised you about my prediction of Ibanez?

WSBGMs 2010 Phillies predictions.

Carson: I like Ibanez a bit more than you in 2010...

.275 - 22HR - 90RBI

Maybe I'm an optimist?

Amazing article on Halladay by great writer, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun:

http://www.torontosun.com/sports/columnists/bob_elliott/2010/03/23/13335546.html

Wow, there are 65 other Phillies blogs? Why bother with any other? Beerleaguer rocks.

Tweet posted on/by @THE PHIELD as seen on the voting site:

"Taking bets on when @beerleaguer #ThePhield thread turns into one about Cody Ransom's lefty/righty splits. 2 hours ago"

Some one has Beerleaguer pegged.

Yeah, I agree Bedrosian. Beltre did not chose to sign with us.

Thanks for the post awh.

Jim Salsbury has a peice on Jarred Cosart, with quotes from Chuck LaMar saying he is the most improved player in the Phils system so far.

Jarred Cossart Review

Vote here fellas.

Posted by: J. Weitzel | Wednesday, March 24, 2010 at 08:34 AM

~~~~~~~

Is the fairer sex allowed to vote as well? ;->

Carson, given that the last 4 years Ibanez has averaged

.287 .353 .505 .857

28 HR, 108 RBI, OPS+ 125 - in an avergae of 151 games played.

The dropoff, especially in HR, seemed a little steep.

You're predicting a precipitous drop in power, almost 50%, from 34 HR to 18 HR, depite the fact that he only played in 134 games last season.

Given that he's averaged 4.31 PA/game the last 4 years, and that he's hit a HR every 23.48 PA during that span, if he returns to '06 - '08 norms (157 GP) then he's likely to get approximately 650 - 670 PA. If that happens, what you're essentially saying is that his power is going to drop from 1 HR every 23.48 PA to 1 HR every 36.67 PA.

Then, there was the change in ballparks in 2009, when he hit 1 HR every 16.62 PA.

Even if he plays in only 145 games, based on his average for 2009 (4.21 PA/game) he's likely to get 610+ PA in 2010, at least 55 MORE than in 2009.

Do you really think, given that he's likely to play more games than last season, that his HR power is going to drop from one every 16.62 PA to 1 HR every 36.67 PA?


Even granting age related dropoff, that seems awfully steep from one year to the next.

The RBI total is going to be affected a great deal by the kind of year Utley, Werth, Howard and possibly Victorino have ahead of him.

AWH- I was purely going on hunch with Ibanez. In fact that's why I did for all my predictions every year I make them. I don't really look at other site's projections because I like to do it myself and see how I fair come season's end. With that said, I think Ibanez sees DL again this season and sits about once a week with Francisco starting in his place.

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