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Thursday, March 11, 2010

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Repost from end of last thread:

" think what denny b meant or at least how I interpreted his comment was that their situation is similar. While I don't believe Marberry has had any injuries issues like Werth had (wrist), but that they are outfielders with somewhat similar tools (Strong defensive OFs, power ability, fast, somewhat long swings, etc). Not that he is projecting Marberry to have a similar career path or success.

I tend to agree with denny on this. I would say the odds are strongly against Mayberry evolving into a player as good as Werth, but to ask you the same question what pro baseball man thought Werth was going to become the player he is today when we picked him up from the bargain bin? If so, why wasn’t he rostered by another team? Why would we have signed Jenkins to that deal if our own people knew what he would have turned into.

I am not predicting that Mayberry will become even a league average or fringe starting OF on a good team, I am just stating that some posters seem to make comments as if there is no chance that he can evolve into anything more than a AAAA player and I disagree with making such definitive statement."

JW: good work on DNL last nite, was able to catch the majority of it.

You really didn't give them something to remember tho...after mentioning the word "luck" in relation to Hamels' performance, you really should have explained yourself instead. They even gave you an opening to describe stats like BABIP and FIP and you kind of just glossed them over by lumping them all together.

I feel like if you would have just focused on any one of the sabremetric numbers, that maybe they would have taken your word for it and possibly used it in the future.

JW, I was able to see your segment on DNL last night. Congrats on the spot and I hope thing bring you back many more times during the season. Hopefully for longer segments too.

I also have been searching for Bastardo's name in box scores each day & am surprised about the lack of opportunities thus far. I too was thinking they would try and put him in spots somewhat early in grapefruit league games to face some of the other team’s regulars to see how he's progressed following what was an impressive tour in winter leagues from what has been reported.

thephaithful: JW used my advice and stayed away from discussing stats like BABIP, WAR, FIP, etc.

The type of audience that DNL has doesn't care about those "stats". That show is geared towards the average fan, not the type of fan that loves to disect the stats.

With Barkann and Co. if he starting breaking out the calculator to discuss that stuff his 10 minute segment would have be shaved down to 6 minutes.

kevmac: thats how 90% of the people took denny's post. I wouldn't waste time breaking it down for others.

If you've never seen the Revolution play, I can tell you it's a treat. Love Independent League baseball. It's great to see prospects at Resding but the Atlantic League is full of has-beens and never-weres. And guys in the middle like DeRenne. Nice ballpark, too.

tommy: yeah you are probably right - but they directly asked him for one "good" stat that stuck out. I think if he kept it to just 1 and followed with a short explaination and how it related to the Phillies, it would have worked.

Although a lot of people don't follow stats very deeply like most here, that doesnt mean they wouldn't appreciate what BABIP means and that Hamels had a much higher one in 2009 than 2008.

Regarding Lidge, he will pitch in his first game on Monday.

thephaithful: Maybe. But BABIP has been discussed before in the DNL type forums i.e. WIP. And it has been met with laughter and the hosts talking about how foolish of a stat it is based on a bunch of different reasons.

So I don't think many DNL viewers would respond well to the explanation of that stat.

Basically all the average fan cares about stat wise is BA, OBP, SLG, ERA, W-L, HR and RBI. Everything else gets swept under the rug.

I am not a stat guy as you all know, but at least I have learned to appreciate stats like ERA+ and OPS+, along with select others.

kevmac: If you go back and look at the prospect reports, most baseball men thought Jayson Werth would become Jayson Werth. He, like Mayberry, was a 1st round pick.

The difference is that Werth actually progressed nicely through the minors and had a solid year in the majors at age 25. Mayberry had to repeat Trip A at age 25 and put up rather unimpressive stats doing it.

No one is saying Mayberry can't develop into a useful player. I am simply saying that comparing him to Werth is a bit of a stretch to say the least.

thephaithful: You do understand that DNL, like WIP, is an entertainment program, right? Ragging on JW for not talking about BABIP is ignorant.

Is it time to break out the "Free Tuffy" picket signs for a march around Bright House Networks Field?

In my defense, I talked about FIP extensively on Angelo's show on Tuesday.

Thank you kevinmac and others for articulating what I was trying to say.

Not saying in the least that Mayberry will end up anywhere near as productive as Werth. Just was saying, that their skillsets and stories on how they got to Philly, are somewhat similar.

Plus, its not like Mayberry is 30 years old. Maybe he develops differently and at a different rate, then others (including Werth). Who knows?

Just hope he keeps hitting the ball hard, running the bases well and playing good defense and makes the Phillies decision tougher to make. It would be a nice extra bonus to have.

That's all.

The segment pretty much turned out to be "What is the deal with Cole Hamels and what stats that your annual includes can help describe the problem?"

After the segment was over, I don't really think he helped answer it, aside from 'he just made dumb mistakes' - I guess I'm just spoiled from the great writeups he does and was expecting more.

JW, just curious. How did Angelo and the morning crew react to your description of FIP?

blah nevermind - was just an empty observation from watching yesterday. not going to make it anything more than that. enough said.

thephaithful: Basically mindless banter like most fans have at a bar or at the game sells and provides good TV. While in depth sabermetric descriptions and analysis does not.

It's not JW's fault, just the way it is.

Ozzie Guillen's Verified Twitter feed. That's all I'm going to say.

http://twitter.com/OzzieGuillen

Is he drunk? I don't understand 3/4 of what he tweeted.

What the hell does that mean, Ozzie?

Mayberry is fun to dream on. Is it likely, no. Would it be awesome? yes. no need to pick a fight over it Clout.

I would not call mindless banter good television.

Btw, Cliff Lee rabblerabblerabble....

UniKruk: Really? I enjoy it. I think it can also be funny. Obviously most people do as well.

Why do you think WIP (or sports talk radio in general), DNL, Pardon the Interruption, Around the Horn, etc. are so successful?

I'm new to the sabermetric revolution and I still don't grasp the stats that get tossed around so often these days. If i was the audience and heard FIP and ERA+ and et all I would have glazed over and changed the channel. So JW did the right thing by speaking to his audience and increasing the likelihood of being invited back.

I'm still not sold on Cole Hamels being "unlucky". I still say hitters got a better feel for his strategy and in doing so were able to fight off his changeup and stay alive until he tossed a hitable pitch, whether it be substandard fastball or changeup. Better timing and being more comfortable at the plate means getting better wood on the ball and being able to hit it where they ain't.

So you say a high BABIP means bad luck I think it means, at least in Cole's case, you aren't keeping hitters off balance sufficiently and thus is a bad sign. Now Cole seems to be making adjustment to reset the field so it may not be indicitive of things to come for 2010.

I just struggle with a stat indicating bad luck. over 162 games is there really such thing as luck? I feel like its just a give and take of scouting and adjustments.

I'm ready to be crushed mvptommyd like...

Bastardo pitched 2 innings in the B game on Wednesday. In his 1st inning he got the 1st 2 outs then gave up 2 hits before getting out of the inning with a strikeout. 2nd inning again got the 1st 2 outs then gave up 3 hits, the last one a double that scored a run, but thanks to a great relay,Gillies to Galvis to Tuffy, they nailed the second runner at the plate. He pitched well but just couldn't finish the inning.

Personally, I can't stand WIP, PTI or ATH, but I do like DNL most nights. I don't like the shorter format and if you aren't the Eagles or Phillies, you get the shaft (flyerscoughsixerscough) in terms of content and coverage--but I enjoy the interviews and some of the panel guests like Hofman, Bowen, Morganti and special guest stars like JW.

I also have a weird fondness for SportsNation, even though I cannot stand Cowherd. Beadle is funny, though.

Ozzie Guillen further proves my Twitter point. Sorry, I hate the thing.

DoubleH: How can you not like Wilbon and Kornheiser? They are hilarious. I have been watching that show since it started and STILL everynight when he says "Goodnight Canada!" and waves the flag, I crack up.

(Also, they do provide a 5 minute segment to serious interviews, so it does have a serious side)

PHLinBK: Hold on, it is going to be a bumpy ride.

Brace for the sabermetricians wrath in 3,2,1....

BABIP is only relevant if you have a long record to compare it with. If a pitcher normally is in the .270 range each year and then has a year in which his BABIP is .330 it's probably an indicator that a lot of stuff that got caught previously just found its way outside a fielder's grasp.

You can also infer, however, from a small sample size if it's way outside the norm. Like KK's 2007 BABIP with RISP. Nobody is blessed with a BABIP of .216 on a regular basis. But if you are fortunate to have that kind of luck, you're gonna have a good year regardless of whether you get lefties out or not.

Does anyone know if the day of the games in Clearwater if they release any standing room only tickets?

Can you explain the goodbye canada joke?

Shawn: Yea a few years ago Kornheiser made a joke on the air saying that "Canada didn't have TV" or something to that effect. The next day Wilbon made him apologize.

Also, Canada doesn't carry the "extended" coverage that Sportscenter has during their show.

So because of those two reasons every night Kornheiser waves a Canadian flag and says "Goodnight Canada".

Sounds like it might time for Kornheiser to move on from that bit.

Conlin on Chat on philly.com now

No one has posted anything yet.

Phanatics Brother: What's Conlin going to say that we don't already know?

Comparing PTI to Around the Horn, or WIP is a crime against humanity.

DNL is ok but that is totally contingent on who is on that night and the topics. Kornheiser and Wilbon have a great dynamic with each other. And I'm the one guy who probably likes LeBatard.

When Rich Hoffman is on DNL that show dies a hot death. Bill Conlin is pretty bad too when he gets off topic.

@PHIinBK:

I don't think you're entirely off base there. Cole's biggest problem last year was finishing batters. It's not nearly so difficult to stay alive in the box when you know that only one of two pitches is coming. Where the luck comes in is that if a batter stays alive for long enough he's going to sneak one through.

...

So, the discussion here is that John Mayberry is the next Johan Santana?

Interesting.

TTI: Really? I like Hofman. He is, by far, one of the best writers in this city. I don't like Wilbon much and he certainly has no love for Philadelphia--Kornheiser's not bad, but after his MNF disaster, it's difficult to view him in the same light.

You're right: you are the one guy who likes LeBatard.

Conlin is no longer allowed on DNL as far as I can tell--since his last "incident".

I haven't seen either of Cole's outings, can anyone comment on how his new cutter & curveball have looked? Has he been able to locate either of them consistently?

I read in a couple of places that people are encouraged by his cutter, but wanted to hear some eye witness accounts...

I'm betting there will be no posts from clout during the hour that Conlin is having his chat.

doubleh, I must have missed the "incident" with Conlin.. I'm curious to hear more, can you elaborate?

doubleh: I have absolutely nothing against Hoffman's writing. As a television personality though he is almost the equivalent of dead air. He just makes faces and stammers through comments. It's brutal.

some of the questions being asked on the Conlin chat are brutal. "Has Ryan Howard lost too much weight?"?!?! Really???

TTI: I don't think Hofmann is so bad but I also like LeBatard. I like PTI a lot too. I like both Wilbon and Kornheiser. Kornheiser put out a collection of his columns about 8 or 10 years ago called Pumping Irony. He was a terrific columnist down in DC. Some really funny stuff. HH is right he didn't work out on MNF but that was a fools errand anyhow. He was at least better than Dennis Miller, but nobody could have pulled off that ill-conceived format.

kevmac: I saw the program and he dismissed someone's email to the program (who happened to be from NJ) by saying, "Go back to your blueberry picking." I don't think he meant for it to be racist, but apparently a lot of the blueberry pickers in NJ are minority/migrant workers.

Unless there was some other more recent incident, I think that was the last one. He's had so many; they all run together. That's the one that jumps out at me, though.

Andy: It's batters where a track record of BABIP is more useful, some guys can keep up .330 and some guys are Pedro Feliz.

For pitchers, on the other hand, it's very rare for them to be able to sustain a BABIP that's far from the average, which is around .300.

Blanton: 4IP, 3H, 0R. The Phils' starting pitching has been pretty good so far. I know...it's early.

HH: I snorted in amused approval at the Johan Santana remark.

A rising tide floats all boats...

I like PTI, the rest of those shows are general interest and somewhat uninformative (uninformed?)unless you're looking for the general sentiment of the hoi polloi.

Joes Reyes is out 2-8 weeks with his thyroid condition.

Wow, that's going to hurt them. That means their starting SS is....Alex Cora.

That should be Jose Reyes obviously.

And the Mets historically speaking start out well and then start to decline as the season goes on.

If he does miss the first 30 or so games, that is going to be a huge blow to their team.

Thanks for the info, Tommy. Losing Reyes is a huge blow to the Mets. There's going to be a ton of pressure on Wright and Bay to carry the offensive load. By the way, what's Beltran's status to start the season?

Is there a team any more snake bitten than the Mets? What the...?

I also read an article on.... was it MSNBC.com? Anyway, it was about how some people are speculating that Reyes condition is a result of his using HGH. The article then condemned these speculators because there is no actual proof that Reyes used HGH, and even if he did, there's no proof that it caused his condition. But I found it interesting that the author (Craig Calcaterra) title his piece "Daily News Tries to Link Reyes' Thyroid Problem to HGH." He condemned it, but used the accusation to draw people to his blog.

Anyway, I feel sorry for Reyes.

R Bill: Beltran will be out until anywhere from May to the ASB.

Most people think end of May, beginnign of June he will return.

Thanks DoubleH,

Wow, reyes not being on the field would be a big blow. As many posters have mentioned in the past, I think the Braves are the team to keep an eye on.

If you haven't seen it yet, Jayson Stark has a nice piece on the Werth/Brown dynamic in camp (along with C. Crawford/Jennings)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=4984996

Thanks again, Tommy. That's what I recall. For some reason I thought I heard something that he was progressing pretty well and he might be back sooner, but I'm probably mistaken. As you mentioned, for a team that's recent history has shown a crippling demise towards the end of the season, a terribly slow start is something that the Metropolitans cannot afford.

R Bill: You are most likely reading that he will be ready to begin baseball activities sooner then expected.

He is slated to begin his ST I guess you call it Mid April to early May. But the Mets will take their time with him and not rush him back. Therefore many are expecting him to return late May, early June.

The Met fans confidence meter is about to go from 46% back down to where it was 2 weeks ago to about 10%

Whoever mentioned LeBetard, I could not agree more. I listened to him on my way home from work every day in Miami. He's a riot. His radio show with Stu Gots was more of a comedy act though because sports talk in Miami is really only centered around the Dolphins. They did have "Rickey Andino" day though to celebrate the only native Miamian on the Marlins though. Good times.

Even with a healthy Beltran and Reyes, I didn't think the Met have enough pitching to win 90 games and take the NL East. Without a healthy Beltran and Reyes, they are irrelevant.

Gotta imagine the Mets fans are pretty happy.

Dropping out of the pennant race in March has got be a lot less stressful than blowing a division lead in September.

haha, well played phaithful.

Let’s just hope that karma doesn't come around to bite us in the arse for counting our chickens before the eggs hatch.

Although, I will say that when the mets are relevant it does make the season more interesting. I'd never root for them to make the playoffs, but having us play them in meaningful games adds to the excitement.

I don't think of the Mets as snake bit. I think they had an aging 1B in Delgado, an overhyped wuss who probably roided his way to a monster contract in Beltran, a fragile dude in Reyes, a previously injured set up man in Putz, a previously declining overused closer in K-Rod, etc etc. I think it really comes down to the makeup of the players they chose to litter their roster rather than bad luck. And they probably have a crappy training staff that cares more about getting them on the field than taking care of injuries.

Take that Mets

"I'm new to the sabermetric revolution and I still don't grasp the stats that get tossed around so often these days. If i was the audience and heard FIP and ERA+ and et all I would have glazed over and changed the channel."

It's easy for committed know-nothings like Tommy to paint so-called "advanced" stats as nothing more than numerical masturbation; but the fact is, the importance of the thing is the concept. FIP, for instance: Fielding Independent Pitching--the idea that we can come to a better approximation of a pitcher's talent level by focusing solely on walks, strikeouts and homeruns--that is to say, the outcomes over which it would seem that the pitcher has "direct" control. Put another way, that a pitcher's ERA is overly reliant on factors outside the pitcher's direct control--defense, positioning, etc.

One can quarrel with the concept itself--Does FIP indeed give a more accurate picture of true talent? But as a concept, in and of itself, it's fairly easy to grasp, and to profess dumbfoundedness in the face of it is by no means flattering.

What's more, FIP, and other stats of its ilk, are *interesting*. And thinking of interesting things is *pleasurable*. To speak of these matters over the air therefore is to do the audience a service, assuming the listener-ship is, on average, not nearly so benighted as Tommy.

As to Werth/Mayberry, the question concerning Werth was his recurring wrist pain, which was generally regarded as irreparable. The question with regard to Mayberry is talent--is he talented enough to play major league baseball? A significant difference.

Mets will be starting Alex Cora at short and Luis Castillo at 2B on opening day. Oh man, that is some really bad up the middle defense.

Klaus: "As to Werth/Mayberry, the question concerning Werth was his recurring wrist pain, which was generally regarded as irreparable. The question with regard to Mayberry is talent--is he talented enough to play major league baseball? A significant difference."

Exactly right.

Klaus: Great post. And this is a great line: "It's easy for committed know-nothings like Tommy to paint so-called "advanced" stats as nothing more than numerical masturbation"

I thought this was funny from the Hagen story

...Norfolk and Tidewater...

Same place. Same ballpark.

Klaus: Why are you bashing me for that quote you mentioned above?

I didn't even post that quote you mentioned. PHLinBK did.

By the way Klaus, what PHLinBK said is basically true.

When is the last time you heard anyone on television discussing at length any of the new "advanced" stat like BABIP or FIP. Umm....the answer is never. Not on ESPN, not on Comcast Sportsnet, not even on MLB Network that I have heard( and I watch mlb tonight daily).

So if none of these channels discuss it, it must mean that the audience isn't interested, no?


If you must know, the reason BABIP is not useful is because it doesn't include HR's for the hitter and strikeouts for the pitcher. Therefore is a hitter has a average or slightly below average BABIP but hit 45 HR's a year, it would still be pretty good, right? Same with a pitcher, produces an average BABIP but has 200 strikeouts a season. That would be overlooked using BABIP. Also, since when is "luck" measured as a stat?

Regarding FIP, it only takes into account the actual pitcher, instead of the team as well like ERA does.How can you try to see a pitcher will perform without taking into account the defense behind him? It makes no sense. Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies will have a better year than Cole Hamels pitching for the Mets because the defense is much better, but according to the FIP they will be the same. It is ridiculous.

That is why I don't like most "advanced" stats. They are misleading and can be used to create and defend an argument.

because, tommy, your ignorance of advanced metrics used in analyzing (and ultimately learning and appreciating more) the game makes you a know-nothing in klaus' eyes.

do you think anyone else on here might agree?

much: Yea others would agree. But unlike most here, I still see baseball for what it is and not have to define it to numbers.

BABIP is a bad stat as I noted above for various reasons. Same with FIP, VORP and WAR just to name a few.

People here can like whatever they want, but by saying that advanced stats are the way to go when evaluating players, is just plan wrong.

And to go even further to say that the average fan gives a darn about them is just delusional.

Go to CBP and take a poll of 100 people if they even know the definition of some of these "advanced" stats and maybe 5 people will have a clue what you are talking about when you mention them by name.

If I am a "know nothing" in Klaus' eyes because I see the flaws in advanced stats than so be it.

As everyone here knows, I love the game and don't need to define it by numbers and "luck".

When I am at the ballpark, I am not looking up the opponents BABIP and FIP beforehand, that is for sure.

I hate to say it but the quality of discussions have gone downhill of late.


Darn shame about Reyes.

NEPP: What discussions?

The talk regarding the different television shows, the views regarding "advanced stats", and other topics?

I am sorry, what would you like to talk about?

How about another 10 days of Moyer vs. Kendrick when we know how it will end?

Or maybe we can discuss again who will be the lefty to replace Romero until the middle of April again?

This is a new one, how about Lidge and Madson?

There is nothing to talk about is my point.

The posts have been overall fun discussions. Just because it isn't all number crunching and baseball related is that the reason you aren't in approval?

By the way, JW's site is generated more posts than any other Phillies blog for the most part, so I am sure he isn't complaining.

It is a shame for Reyes. He can't get this time back.

Regarding Mets fans, the earlier poster's crack about it being easier for the season to be lost in March instead of September was hilarious. Of course, karma's a b!tch, or something like that. Not going to sweat my mirth.

It's basketball season.

Klaus I'm not so sure you are correct in stating that Mayberry has no talent. He was picked twice in drafts and both times in the first round. Werth was picked in first round also.
Now Werth has proven his talent and Mayberry still has to prove his but we can not say he has no talent.

Here's another post to help JW with the count. blah blah blah blah.

tommy, I'm no sabermetrician. I take that stuff for what it's worth.

I want you to self-regulate your posts for the good of all who share the common love of teh Phillies - limit the number of questions in a post. One should be sufficient. Seven is presumptuous. Abusive, even.

****There is nothing to talk about is my point. ****

That's pretty much all it is really. As such, its degenerated into back & forths repeatedly. I just want the damn season to start.

NEPP - Large part of it is because their simply aren't that many compelling/interesting stories in camp this year. Almost every roster spot is set, their haven't been any real 'surprises', and this team is the clear favorite in the NL East.

If Seinfeld was a show about nothing, this spring has been a training camp about nothing.

Tommy's so irrepressibly good-natured that I feel obligated to retract my insults--although know-nothingism shouldn't be confused with stupidity; it's an attitude, not a condition.

Anyway:

"So if none of these channels discuss it, it must mean that the audience isn't interested, no?"

Since the history of mass media is nothing but the recurrent manipulation of public attitudes, I'm fairly sure audience interest could be drummed up, if producers so chose. Simply put the words in the mouths of prestigious people, and--interest!

But I'm conceding too much. Sabermetrical terms *are* used, both on television and in print. What's more, I doubt there's a single youngish beat writer who reacts Tommy-like to the mention of advanced stats, since such stats are the lingua franca of the majority of engaged, youngish, web-surfing baseball fans, as a visit to even a brain-dead site such as MLB Trade Rumors proves. To resolutely ignore sabrmetrics is to commit something close to career suicide--or, at least, self-exile from the vast provinces of internet-based sports discussion; otherwise known as, "the present and future."

All of which seems to suggest that, indeed, certain "advanced" statistical concepts have made headway--serious headway--and to the extent that significant pockets of ignorance exist, that the gap is generational--with sabermetricism, let's call it, resting entirely with the young. If Tommy has yet to hear FIP mentioned but once on ESPN, I suggest he wait 10-20 years; after which the two of us can discourse once more on the apparent immutability of audience interest.

As to Tommy's critique of BABIP--a strange target--I don't find it intelligible and so can't comment. His "critique" of FIP merely proves its usefulness.

But the inevitability of sabrmetrics isn't my point, or a prospect that I'm particularly interested in. All I'd care to defend is the merit of certain advanced stats as concepts, and their congeniality to common-sense thought (that is, their accessibility). When average fans discuss the relative merits of Hall of Famers and claim that pitcher A was just as good as B but for the fact that he pitched in the 2X4 Bowl, in front of a horrendous ball club, they're expressing the kernal of insight underlying FIP (and ERA+).

"If I am a "know nothing" in Klaus' eyes because I see the flaws in advanced stats than so be it. "

tommy, I'm no stathead, but I appreciate the advanced stats for what they are:

An attempt to better define and appreciate a plyer's performance.


You see, tommy, you decry the flaws in the advanced stats, but the advanced stats were created because of the flaws in the basic stats that have been used since the game was invented.

Only recently have people realized how valuable getting on base is. 40 years ago if a player took a walk it was almost viewed as a cop out.

BABIP, FIP, OPS and the others are all used to better define a players true performance - that is - what is really important in run production and run prevention.

Your refusal to at least appreciate their value hurts your understanding of the game, not others.

"Only recently have people realized how valuable getting on base is."
This is crazy talk. OBP has been on the back of baseball cards since atleast the mid 80s. People act like Billy Beane invented the walk 10 years ago or something. You've all lost it. The 93 phillies were widely praised by the mainstream sports media for having, if i recall properly, 3 guys with over 100 walks. Get over it. Babe freaking Ruth walked a ton and people understood the value in it.

"If you must know, the reason BABIP is not useful is because it doesn't include HR's for the hitter and strikeouts for the pitcher. Therefore is a hitter has a average or slightly below average BABIP but hit 45 HR's a year, it would still be pretty good, right? Same with a pitcher, produces an average BABIP but has 200 strikeouts a season. That would be overlooked using BABIP. Also, since when is "luck" measured as a stat?"

I find it stunning that someone who spends multiple hours a day talking about baseball on the internet can be so blatantly clueless about BABIP - you not only don't understand the statistic, you don't even understand what it is trying to measure.

Also, do you really think that luck is not involved in baseball? Please explain.

"How can you try to see a pitcher will perform without taking into account the defense behind him? It makes no sense. Cole Hamels pitching for the Phillies will have a better year than Cole Hamels pitching for the Mets because the defense is much better, but according to the FIP they will be the same. It is ridiculous."

This is exactly what FIP is trying to accomplish - I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Don't you think it is useful to compare, say, Roy Halladay and Johan Santana without having to take into account luck and defense?

Tommy: From reading your posts, it doesn't seem as if you have any intellectual curiosity or interest in better understanding the game of baseball. If you do, I suggest reading this article, which explains BABIP in detail without getting very mathematically specific. The article also touches on DIPS, which is closely related to FIP. I cannot explain these statistics better than the article explains them.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

If you are just a casual fan and don't really care to understand baseball better, feel free to disregard the article.

fljerry: "Now Werth has proven his talent and Mayberry still has to prove his but we can not say he has no talent."

Klaus: "The question with regard to Mayberry is talent--is he talented enough to play major league baseball?"

Klaus didn't say Mayberry has no talent - he said that he still has to prove it, while Werth has already - almost exactly what you said.

Thanks for the link DH, Phils. Interesting article for someone like me who grew up with the traditional stats (ERA, BA, etc.) and is still trying to grasp some of the new metrics.

I don't have the time or desire to drill as deep as many of the knowledgeable posters here do, but having a working understanding of some of the newer stats can only help in understanding and appreciating the game.

I fully expect sabermetrics to be intigrated into common baseball vernacular in the coming years. I was just pointing out that most fans aren't familiar yet with them.
**(JW: how about a glossary along the border or a link if you want to preserve ad space)**
Personally I'm still trying to wrap my arms around stats that conclude luck. Unless a guy falls down or the sun gets in his eyes or silly stuff like that i wouldn't call it luck. Again I know I'm going to get ridiculed to no end, well me or mvptommy...

Yo, new thread.

[Always wanted to do that. I know, my life is sad.]

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