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« | Main | For Happ, doubt a greater obstacle than probability »

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Comments

22th?

I think its actually 22nd...not 22th...making JW correct.

I think the first comment might have inspired the edit.

Is there such a thing as an on-line red pen?

Yes,The Cloutinator

I prefer 22st.

Try to stick to the topic at hand, and the topic is Rick Guttormson.

*crickets chirp*

In other interesting news... this from today's Inky:

"Jared Fogle, of Subway ads fame, will be in camp today to visit fellow pitchman Ryan Howard."

I can't help but wonder who will have a greater impact on the big league team this year, Jared Fogle or Rick Guttormson. JW - How do you keep allowing Baseball America to scoop you on these things?

TWO.MORE.DAYS (until some slightly less ridiculous filler)

Looking over my old baseball cards recently, I wonder if Joe Torre was taking that hair growing agent.

Guttormson? Expat from where? Didn't he medal in the Nordic combined event? I love watching Amaro stockpile arms this time of year. I'm guessing the young guys at AA and AAA don't like it so much.

Heard Stark on with Mike and Mike this morning. He was raving about Hamels conditioning and work ethic. Apparently he's as ripped as a string bean can be. Also said that Hamels topped out at 77 mph last spring due to lack of preparation. He said he's been throwing gas already just in bp sessions. I'll take my encouragement anywhere I can find it.

Sorry to weigh in late on the Great Blanton Debate of 2010... and I really only have clout's summary on the last thread to go on.

Joe Blanton is 16-8 in his 1+ year with the Phils with an ERA+ of 105, pitching 266 innings in his 44 starts (an average of 6 innings per start). And now he's signed for a reasonable amount for his age 29, 30 and 31 seasons.

And it cost us a couple of prospects, one of whom pitched in 20 ML games before needing Tommy John surgery and the other of whom had a slightly disappointing debut at AAA last year.

So... sure... in the 2011 season, one or both of those guys might be succeeding in the majors. The odds are against it (as it is for every prospect), but it's possible. In the meantime, we'll likely have another 30 starts from Joe Blanton with an above-average ERA+ as the Phils attempt to go to their 3rd straight World Series.

I just can't imagine very many scenarios in which I'll shed a tear over that deal. But, hey... we're all entitled to our opinion.

I know this morning's topic isn't former Phillie greats but every time I see a picture of Sen. Bunning he is holding up one, two or three fingers as if he is fighting off some spirits of Gus Triandos or Clay Dalrymple.

Outman and Cardenas are mediocre (at best) prospects who will likely be little more than replacement level in their careers. Blanton has been an above-average innings eater for a multiple pennant winning team...

I fail to see why anyone would think that Phils fans will regret that deal in 10 years.

Live by the sword, die by the sword. Clout just got clouted by a lynch mob. He parses words like a white house special prosecutor to belittle people. When a hole is found in one of his carefully crafted C.Y.A. statements he gets pimp slapped. Turn about is fair play.

****Also said that Hamels topped out at 77 mph last spring due to lack of preparation. ****

Funny, I remember him being in the low to mid 80s for most of the Spring and early April.

Sure that's not a typo and its supposed to be 87 mph, not 77 mph?

****every time I see a picture of Sen. Bunning he is holding up one, two or three fingers as if he is fighting off some spirits of Gus Triandos or Clay Dalrymple.
****

Every time I see a picture of Sen. Bunning, I want to smash his face into a plate-glass window...its odd how the mind works sometimes.

Swallows. hehehe. I know the Swallows play at Meiji Jingu Stadium but I swear I heard people chearing for the "New York Swallows" at a Flyers game a few years back. What gives?

NEPP -
"****Also said that Hamels topped out at 77 mph last spring due to lack of preparation. ****

Funny, I remember him being in the low to mid 80s for most of the Spring and early April.

Sure that's not a typo and its supposed to be 87 mph, not 77 mph?"

I believe Stark was actually referring to Hamels' first BP session in Spring Training when he was topping out at 77.

I heard Stark on the radio this AM, too. He said he came into spring training last year hitting 77 in his first bullpen session. He says he's throwing harder in Clearwater now than he threw at any time last season. The gist of his comments was that he didn't spend the off-season on the rubber chicken circuit and swilling margaritas by the pool. He came into camp well into his throwing routine. I don't think I expected anything less of a guy who 2 years ago said he wants to win a cy young and throw a couple no-hitters. Carlton pitched like sh!t in '73, too. Not to start those (unwinnable) comparisons again.

****I believe Stark was actually referring to Hamels' first BP session in Spring Training when he was topping out at 77. ****

I can believe that. I thought he meant all of Spring Training. Thanks for the clarification.

NEPP and Chris: Not a typo. He claimed that Hamels topped out at 77 for all of spring training. I know that last spring his velocity was down but I remember it like NEPP does. But he seemed to be refuting the 80's stuff. Could have been a cover-up by the Phils FO last spring or Stark could just be wrong. Either way, what he was saying about him was encouraging. Apparently, he's looking like the Ole King Cole.

Maybe I misunderstood him, but I took him to mean all of spring training.

I could have misunderstood Stark. I recall clearly that Hamels had trouble with his velocity and it was hindering his ability to throw an effective change. If he topped out at 77 in spring training though, I would think he would have gone North on teh DL.

Son of the God-Dragon! Man, what a name, what potential for a fanclub.

Chris in VT: "Outman and Cardenas are mediocre (at best) prospects."

And that opinion is based on what exactly? BA and Sickels certainly don't agree with you.

Is it possible you don't know what you're talking about?

So, I'm having a discussion on the Top Phillies of the past 40 years...here's what we've come up with so far (open to opinions from BLers)...also alternates are in parenthesis...)

1B - Ryan Howard (Pete Rose)
2B - Chase Utley (Juan Samuel)
SS - Jimmy Rollins (Manny Trillo)
3B - Michael Jack (Scott Rolen)
LF - Greg Luzinski (Pat Burrell)
CF - Garry Maddox (Dykstra...maybe Vic in a few more years)
RF - Bobby Abreu (McBride, Eisenreich?...its a really thin position Werth is great but he's got all of 1.5 years there as a starter)
C - Mike Lieberthal (Bob Boone, Darren Daulton)

LHP - Steve Carlton
RHP - Curt Schilling
CP - Tug McGraw (Lidge, and a slew of other 1 hit wonders)

It started off with an off the cuff statement by me of "List the top 10 Phillies of the past 40 years...I'd bet nearly half of them are currently on the roster."

The list looks like a good start, except Trillo didn't play short. Plug Bowa in there and you're pretty good.

Oops, typo alert, Trillo was supposed to be under 2B with Bowa under SS. I screwed up with cut and paste.

To Hugh: Yeah, I know. Stupid cut and paste.

NEPP, Trillo was a second baseman. Bowa is the alternate SS for Rollins. And Burrell > Luzinski. Otherwise, I agree with your list.

LOL...again on the Trillo thing, I know. I was cutting and pasting from my email and I wasn't reading which names I was putting under which.


I disagree on Luzinski being worse than Burrell

"Chris in VT: "Outman and Cardenas are mediocre (at best) prospects."

And that opinion is based on what exactly? BA and Sickels certainly don't agree with you.

Is it possible you don't know what you're talking about? "


Outman's recovering from TJ surgery. Cardenas has zero power, and would never displace Utely, Rollins, or Polanco from the lineup. You're telling me that Phils fans are really going to regret trading away a utility IF and injured LHP in exchange for Joe Blanton?

Is it possible YOU don't know what you're talking about?

Pretty soon we'll be adding "Tuffy Goosewich" to those illustrious names.

Career OPS+

Luzinski - 130
Burrell - 116

As a Phillie

Luzinski - 133
Burrell - 119

# of outstanding ballpark dining establishments:

Luzinski - 1
Burrell - 0

Samuel over Trillo. I probably give Luzinski an edge on Burrell, but that could be nostalgia. Pretty similar players, albeit, the Bull was more consistent. I'd want to plug Von Hayes in RF even though he moved around center, and first base more than right. I might put Dykstra in center as much as that might be heresy to the secretary of defense. Oh, and Boone at catcher.

As I recall, Cardenas was among the top 3 Phillies prospects on BA and Sickels and a few other lists. He's 22. Before he got hurt, Outman was 4-1, 3.48 in 12 starts. He was in the Phils top 10.

Cardenas was also rated among BA's Top 100 prospects. But you probably know more than the pros, so it was silly of me to question you. And, of course, no pitcher has ever come back from TJ surgery so you're probably right about Outman too. Forget I ever said anything.

Abreu is the no. 1 right fielder in my book. Hard to fill in after him.

Hugh: Von Hayes? Good grief!

Goosewich Bozied Gutterstorm.

Meyer: Your mother would wash your mouth out with soap if she heard such language.

How come Chris Coste isn't on the list? Or Eric Bruntlett?

In DavThom's list, Chris Coste is filled in for every position, since he's played each one at some point in his career.

Cardenas was rated in the top 100 in 2008 and 2009, but dropped out this year. Was rated a B- by Sickels recently

Outman was a B- last year according to Sickels, before he went over the rookie limit. His grade would presumably be bumped up by his solid MLB performance, but then again, Tommy John surgery tends to knock a prospect down some as well. So we'll stay with B-.

Both have the chance to be solid MLB contributors (Outman's upside is probably performance similar to...Joe Blanton), but neither project to be stars. So this is a classic example of one in the hand being better than two in the bush. Getting solid, above-average pitching from Blanton right now was worth giving up two guys who project to be average regulars in the future, with a small chance of being better than that (and of course the risk, with all prospects, of never making it at all).

clout: I'm no fan of Von Hayes. He never lived up to his billing as 'the franchise'. Who do you put in right after Abreu, though? Werth? McBride? Just trying to help. It's like picking the second.best right handed or left handed starter?

****I probably give Luzinski an edge on Burrell, but that could be nostalgia. Pretty similar players, albeit, the Bull was more consistent****

The Bull gave you at least equal offense in a far less offensive era and in a tougher ballpark (as Burrell played the final half of his Phillies career in CBP, not the Vet). The OPS+ numbers above show a pretty signficant gap between the two. Besides, that pulled pork sandwich is ridiculously good.

I also think Clout is underrating Blanton here. He says he's "only a 3rd starter", but ignores what a good 3rd starter is worth to a team. 200 innings a year of 105 ERA+ is a very, very useful piece, for a team that's contending for titles right now. Worth trading Dom Brown and Kyle Drabek for? No. But worth dealing Cardenas and Outman? Probably.

I'm on record as saying we overpaid at the time. But Blanton has been significantly better than I thought he'd be, and contributed valuable postseason performance (yes, Clout, that IS worth something), and Cardenas hasn't developed any power and Outman has gotten injured and will miss most of his Age 25 season.

Interestingly, looking in the archives, Clout liked the Blanton trade, saying our window was closing, and that getting a reliable starter for the postseason was worth it "no matter how Cardenas turns out."

FWIW, I did mention Von Hayes as a RF contender in the original discussion based on his 3 years as a starter there...Abreu is easily #1 though.

Jack: What is your definition of the word "wonder"? How about "twinge"?

Did you even read the original post?

I liked the trade at the time and now. Unless Outman or Cardenas develops into a perennial AS/HOF player, it was probably a pretty good fair trade for both teams.

Its not nearly at the level of a Doyle Alexander or Ryne Sandberg type trade...barring a massive surprise from Outman, Spencer or Cardenas.

Clout: As I said yesterday, "wonder" is a great thing. I wonder if Freddy Galvis will hit 30 HRs in a season someday. What do you think?

Jack: You think the chances of Outman and Cardenas making it are the same as Galvis hitting 30 HRs?

Interesting.

And that sounds to me like a "win-win".

Clout: I think we can wonder about a whole lot of things.

NEPP: Regarding the ballpark dining establishments statistic... I look forward to the day that "Elvis'" opens in left field at Harry Kalas Memorial Park.

I think NEPP's list is pretty good. I strongly favor Bob Boone though over the other two. Guy was a helluva receiver. In fact when he retired I think he was like one or two in games caught for a career. He almost never missed a game. Tough as nails.

Would we have won a WFC without Blanton? I don't think so. If that's the case, the trade was well worth it no matter what the kids do.

Nepp: For Centerfield wouldn't Ashburn be the #1? Maddox was a great defender but I don't walk around in Maddox Alley

NEPP kept it to the last 40 years so that he would not see the name Bunning again today.

Gutterstorm?

Rev: I think NEPP was only going back 40 years. Otherwise Whitey is a no brainer. I saw on the MLB channel the other day that only one outfielder ever had 500 putouts in a season. It was Whitey....he did it 4 times. Incredible.

My poetic liscence is expiring along with my Unemployment Compensation at the end of the month thanks to you know who.

clout - So you're really arguing that a younger version of Castro and a guy recovering from TJ surgery who might one day be as good as Blanton weren't worth the trade?

We can "wonder" about anything. But what we KNOW is that Blanton has given the Phils a season and a half of above average production that helped them win 2 pennants and 1 WFC. Would the Phils have won the division in '08 without Blanton? What about '09? Highly unlikely. Without that trade, the Phils are still wallowing in roughly the same position they were in '06, competitive but not good enough to get over the hump.

Are you really contending that isn't worth Outman and Cardenas?

"Jack: You think the chances of Outman and Cardenas making it are the same as Galvis hitting 30 HRs?

Interesting."

Making it? Big deal. Your 'argument' has been that *maybe* these guys become Sandberg and we regret this trade forevermore. Let them "make it" and be solid major leaguers. Phillies won a WFC, end of story.

I believe Cardenas and Outman were going to win 8 HoFs? Now they just have to "make" it?

I'm still trying to get my mind around clout's notion that Ivan DeJesus was a superior fielder to Larry Bowa. Bowa was definitely older but, DeJesus was a butcher on the order of Juan Samuel and then some. Human error machine some years. And don't try to convince me the stats say otherwise. I have had that opinion since I was 12 years old and I won't let it go.

8 WFCs while being HoF that is

I think Clout's passion behind this silly argument is partly driven by his respect for Billy Beane. Many smart baseball fans seem to think that Beane can do no wrong, and I assume Clout falls into that camp.

**Unsolicited Two Center Alert**

I re-read these last, tedious posts about the trade issue. I have to back clout up on one thing. After reading his initial post, all of the post following completely misinterpret what he said. A taste of his own medicine, for sure, but it still happened.

I read the post to mean that of the recent emptying of the farm system, one trade that may be somewhat regrettable is the Blanton deal -- based on what Blanton added (and will add) to the team and how Outman and Cardenas may turn out.

If I'm reading it the way clout meant it, I don't see what all the fuss is about. I think it's a pretty reasonable statement. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

Er...**Unsolicited Two Cents Alert**

Sorry I skipped right over the last 40 years part.

Meyer: My poetic liscence is expiring along with my Unemployment Compensation at the end of the month thanks to you know who.

So it is Clout's fault! Haha

No I only have myself to blame not Big C. My early retirement will soon be over and I will only be left with my Maple Street Press Phillies Annual 2010 and my translations of the Mahabharata.

Blanton's a "#3" pitcher, but he was probably our second best pitcher in the 2008 postseason. 18 innings, 6 ER. Sure, it's easy to pretend that's easily replaced, but only Hamels had more success with lots of innings.

A federal investigation that is expected to touch a number of professional athletes in a number of sports will cover a second Mets player. Several media outlets have reported that the same investigators who last week met with Jose Reyes intend to interview teammate Carlos Beltran concerning his involvement with Anthony Galea, a Toronto doctor, who is under investigation for the sale of an unapproved drug, among other things.

mlb.com

Meyer: ah be nice to Sen. Bunning, he's just trying to enforce the Pay-go rules this senate placed on itself and then is promptly trying to ignore. The unemployment thing will go through eventually and you'll get your money. That's what happened with my wife during the last extension squabble.. . and if it means they have to take the money from some other ridiculous program to fund it, all the better.

Harry Reid only needs 51 votes to override Bunnings' objection, there are 59 democrats in the Senate. Bunnings' objection is useful for political reasons, The Dem's get to go out and convince guys like you that the Republicans hate unemployed people and don't care that you are going to starve. . . .But back to baseball.

EFF: why would Reyes and Beltran be involved with a sketchy Dr. in Toronto if they weren't taking banned substances?

JBird: That may be what he says he's doing, but Bunning's been ignoring PayGo for a long time by voting for other spending. He's a fraud*.


*He may actually be trying to stick it Sen. McConnell (r-KY) with this.

Bed's Beard: A fraud in Washington you say? I've never heard of such a thing. Do you suppose others know about this? We must alert the press immediately!

R. Billingsly: Interesting how you could read that as it was written, but the emotional munchkins couldn't.

Chris in VT: Are you dyslexic?

Here is what you posted: "Outman and Cardenas are mediocre (at best) prospects."

That's what I was responding to, a comment that was silly and false.

JBird,
You are as ignorant as Senator Bunning. You need 60 votes to invoke cloture to end a filibuster, not 51. This is precisely what has been discussed every day before and after the Mass. special election.

Anyway, it's an objection to a unanimous consent. it can be overturned with a simple majority, and there is a simple majority willing to overturn it. But the Majority leader won't schedule the vote...so back to baseball? How is there no actual baseball worth discussing yet?

Bunning's reasoning for the first no vote was that he was missing his UK basketball game...he's a POS regardless of the "politics" behind the vote.

Hugh: "DeJesus was a butcher on the order of Juan Samuel and then some."

Wow, you couldn't be more wrong. The guy was a good field/no hit who only had a career because of his glove. Read the sports pages from those days. He had no power at all and his career OPS+ was 77.

Yet he was an everyday player for 8 years. You think that was because he was good in the clubhouse?

NEPP: But you have to admit his slider was murder on righties.

Now that its March I am feeling like weighing in.

I loved Jim Bunning as a Phillie, but have never had much use for him as a senator. Politics aside, there have been stories for the last several years suggesting that there are signs that he is experiencing some sporadic dementia. If true, very sad for him, but not okay in a senator.

I want to cast my vote for the Bull in LF. He was a much more consistent hitter than Burrell and certainly the offensive leader on the team through most of the 70's (yes, ahead of Schmidt). He also finished 2 for MVP twice.

JJG: it's an objection to unanimous consent not a filibuster. Besides, there are republicans who will vote for it, like Susan Collins so there's your 60. Calling people ignorant isn't nice. Below are links for you, if you care.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6213XI20100302

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/03/02/is-bunning-conducting-a-filibuster/

BB and JBird -
That's the problem with our government as it is currently constituted...When Republican bills were going through a Rep. controlled senate, Bunning had no problem ignoring PAYGo. When Democrats are pushing bills through a Dem. controlled Senate, suddenly he has to take a stand on principle. It's all BS.

Chris: BS indeed. they're all bums but a couple who are few and far between. They all play the game. I have much more respect for the one's who stand on their principles all the time no matter which side of the aisle they populate.

Jim Bunning developed his screwball pitch after his HOF induction.

Jbird: Might want to enroll in a Poli Sci class.

Clout - no, I stand by that statement. Outman is recovering from TJ surgery and will miss his entire age 25 season. At best, he could hope to have a career similar to Blanton's, if his rehab and recovery goes well (which is not the sure thing you seem to think). Cardenas will be a career utility IF, basically a younger version of Juan Castro. Neither one is a great (or even good) prospect at this point.

The trade was most definitely worth the price, considering the value the Phils have received and will continue to receive from Blanton.

With Martino's story about Happ and his new 2-seamer, how far back to earth (regression to the mean) do people expect Happ to fall. I've seen him mentioned among the players most likely to vastly underperform their 2009 numbers. But at the same time I see him getting projected to a 4.2-ish era and I think I'd be pretty happy with that. Would anyone be unhappy with that?

Not surprising that Beerleaguers are big on following and arguing about politics too, considering we have people like clout, who can't just disagree with someone but has to resort to calling them "emotional munchkins".

But this is a baseball blog. Let's keep it that way, and avoid the political topic du jour. There are plenty of other places where people can get that fix.

Chris in Vt: Well aware. I work with these folks down here in DC. And they didn't just ignore PAYGo, they let it expire in 02.

I expect Happ to be roughly .500 with low double-digit wins and a 4.5-ish ERA...In other words, a solid #4 starter, which is what they need from him.

Anything better would just be gravy.

Bed's Beard: you can check the links I posted above and see that 1. it's not really a filibuster so they don't need 60 and 2. even if it was a filibuster, they have the 60 votes to overturn it. I took poli-sci 10 years ago.

Agree with Clout. DeJesus was a good glove man. When the Phillies got him he was a better defensive shortstop than Bowa at the time. Bowa was definitely on the way down. He was still decent but DeJesus was better. At his best Bowa was one of the 5 best shortstops I ever saw.

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