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Monday, March 22, 2010

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Who is this Cliff Lee guy? Why do we care about the health of a Mariner?

Rube looks better and better as the days go by. With that said:

CAN THE SEASON START ALREADY?!

any idea who's pitching for the yankees today?

Wow, did I actually break some news to the BL community? I feel somewhat significant for once. ha ha.

I hope this doesn't hamper him to much, although, he seems to be a pretty classy guy minus the whole throwing at people this spring.

And to repost from a couple of threads ago, could someone share with me a site that explains all the advanced metrics used on this site? I understand the pretty basic ones like ERA+ and BABIP, but I'd like to have a reference when other ones are used.

I believe Burnett is starting.

R.Bill-
Mike Schmidt said on TV yesterday that he was ready for the season to start around St Paddy's every spring training.
Sounds good to me!

Bubba:

Being that, in my opinion, the roster is pretty much set already and there are no interesting positional battles to watch, these next two weeks will be torture!

cipper, if you go to baseball-reference.com, they have a glossary of terms. so does espn. I think fangraphs does as well, buti've never used it so i can't say for sure.

Argh. Are the Phillies broadcasters taking the day off? Only a YES audio feed is available on MLB.com's Gameday Audio. I'd rather drive nails into my finger tips than listen to the Yankee's radio broadcast.

It's always intersting when a poster is shown to be flat out wrong, as denny b. was in the earlier thread, yet steams right on ahead.

Let's reprint some intelligent responses to his contention that you don't need 2 LH PH and that Dobbs and Gload are identical as players:

Phillies Leaders in Pinch-Hit ABs, by Year:

2005: Endy Chavez (L) 43, Tomas Perez (S) 43, Jose Offerman (S) 28
2006: David Dellucci (L) 60, Abraham Nunez (S) 39, Shane Victorino (S) 38
2007: Greg Dobbs (L) 48, Wes Helms (R) 32, Abraham Nunez (S) 23
2008: Greg Dobbs (L) 62, So Taguchi (R) 33, Chris Coste (R) 21
2009: Matt Stairs (L) 62, Greg Dobbs (L) 54, Eric Bruntlett (R) 28

A large portion of Charlie's PH ABs have gone to LH hitters during his time in Philadelphia - it is no coincidence that the Phillies signed Gload while having Dobbs under contract. I would be very surprised to see Dobbs traded to make room for a RH hitter on the bench, when the Phillies already have a competent one in Francisco. As last year demonstrated, there are plenty of PH ABs for 2 lefties.

Posted by: DH Phils | Monday, March 22, 2010 at 01:48 AM

Denny, you started with "Either Gload or Dobbs will see a lot of LOOGY's in late inning pressure situations, because Cholly will be stuck." You ended with "Managers aren't likely going to waste a LOOGY on Gload, when Utley and Howard are lurking." Which one is it?

What percent of NL relievers throw from the right side? My gut feel says ~75%. Of course the bench should have 2 legit LH options!

Posted by: Spitz | Monday, March 22, 2010 at 02:11 AM

Surprised no one pointed out to denny that the majority of people, other than pitchers, for whom Chollie will put in a PH are righties. He's never gonna PH for Utley or Howard, almost never (if ever) for Ibanez. But he might ph for Chooch.

And, as I look at this year's line-up I don't see a lot of PHing anyway. Really, other than pitchers, who will Chollie bat someone for? Barring an injury, I'm betting we have fewer PH PAs this year than last.

Posted by: Andy | Monday, March 22, 2010 at 09:20 AM

MG: Gload has never played an inning at 3B. Furthermore, he's only hit 28 HR in 1432 ABs. So whoever said that Dobbs and Gload are the same player is badly misinformed.

Posted by: clout | Sunday, March 21, 2010 at 10:52 PM

game is on ESPN

Clout-

Dobbs and Gload ARE the same player (whether you want to admit or not).

Both are left handed hitters.
Both are without a position.
Both are basically pinch-hitters.
Both have NO speed.

If you would think for once, you'd know that on a team that only has 5 bench players, having 2 that do EXACTLY the same thing and basically have EXACTLY the same strength's and weaknesses, is NOT smart.

Yes, there are plenty of PH opportunities for lefty hitters. Because that is all Cholly will have to use. Again Francisco will be used much more as a defensive replacement in LF, then he will as a PH. Why? Cholly has no one else that can play a adequate LF and no one else who can run on his bench. Nobody.

That is the point being made. If Cholly had someone else (like Mayberry) who could be used the way Francisco likely will be used, then Benny could be saved to be your pinch-hitter from the right side. The way it is now, that won't happen much (unless Cholly wants to drag Ibanez's 38 year old bones out there for 9 innings every night and live with him playing LF in a tight game).

Well it appears I was 100% wrong on Herndon. Hadn't considered that the alternative was Zagurski, and that Lidge and Romero would be DL'ed.

denny b - The better argument is that the Phils would be better off with a 6-man bench that includes Mayberry to start the season vs. somebody like KK/Herndon who might get used once a week.

Mayberry doesn't bring much to the table as a PH option but he is a solid defensive replacement (better than Francisco) who gives you some speed off the bench for a lineup that has a couple of plodders. Plus, Mayberry gives Cholly more flexibility on how he wants to use Francisco later in games too.

I have a feeling we are going to see way too many times where Castro PH over the first few months of the season with their 5-man bench of Francisco, Dobbs, Gload, Schneider, and Castro.

Zagurski is out of the running and in the minors to start the season. No surprise there because you just can't have a situational guy who faces 1-2 hitter and can't throw strikes with any kind of real consistency.

1-2 times last year at Reading where I saw where he came into a game and was even throwing strikes 50% of the time. That won't hack it at AA let alone MLB.

clout: I understand your point, but how does the numbers from 05-09 help your argument at all? Only in 2009 were two LHB used primarily. Unless Gload/Dobbs learns to switch hit, I don't follow your logic.

Hamels is getting lit up by mostly no-name Spankees. Meh.

Nick Swisher is still a d-bag. Nothing new there.

Anyone watching the game? Is Hamels working on one pitch in particular?

I saw a couple innings. Hamels looked just like bad Hamels of last season. He was keeping the ball up in the zone, or failing to fool guys with slow inside breaking stuff.

Spitz: He's struggling with his fastball command, but the wind is a mo-fo today and everything's flying out. He hasn't been helped tremendously by his OF defense (it seems everytime Werth plays CF it's an adventure), either. Burnett hasn't been much better, however; but Yanks hit better situationally, natch.

Swisher barely gets his jersey brushed and takes a base before it's even awarded to him and oversells it with some of the worst acting I've ever seen. Acted like he'd just been shot, for chrissakes. Meanwhile, Burnett absolutely NAILED Francisco with a pitch (his control/command has been Wild Thing like today) in the back of the neck that could have broken vertibrae, but only a wince from Benny.

I almost just vomited in my mouth... Yankees announcers just compared Utley to Cano, as if Cano was the model to be compared to.

Well, the Yankees players are all the best ever to play the game, dontcha know?

HH: The Nick Swisher acting job (or lack thereof) made me angry. I hate that stuff! Didn't see Francisco get hit. At least he's still in the game.

Good. I finally get to see Herndon throw.

Are you saying the Phils are tougher than the Yankees, HH? :)

I just tuned in the last inning. I gotta say, for ESPN, they gave some love to the Phils, even v. the Yanks. Great interview with Jamie, too.

nice play polanco! herdon is a make this club for sure

Well, didn't get to see as much as I hoped. But, that's a good thing. What did he throw, five pitches?

Herndon not messing around. They just finished introducing him and the inning is over. It is more encouraging every time he steps out. Also, good play by Polly at 3B

Howard strikes out on a 1-2 breaking ball with a man on third with one out. That pisses me off every single time whether its a one run game or a complete blow out. Forget pitch recognition, he has to KNOW by now that a breaking ball is coming when he's down in the count.

And then Werth strikeouts looking on a full count.

Put the goshdarn mudderfrggin sonofagun ball in play!!!! Shucks!!!

Nice play at third by Polanco.

Yeah, they have been giving lots of love to the Phils today--saying they have their own "nation" now that cannot be discounted that shows up wherever they go. They called them the model franchise for the NL.

I had to pinch myself when I realized they were talking about one of my teams.

My loathing for the Yankees knows no bounds.

PHIinBK,

the pitch to Werth was a ball. The umpire seemed to get bored that inning.

PHlinBK: To be fair, Howard was swinging defensively because the first strike called on Howard was an absolute BS call at his ankles. That said, the Phils are terrible with guys on third and less than 2 outs. It's happened twice in this game already, although the first time was made up for by Sardinha (sp?) hitting a bases clearing double.

I have little doubt that Herndon could throw a complete game shutout with 45 pitches

pb _ If Wise is in centerfield it will be a perfect game.

Is to early to give Herndon a nickname?

David "Don't call me Kevin" Herndon.
Come on we need some more

I know Werth got hosed on that call but a hitter has to recognize the umpires strike zone and get defensive w/ a two strike count. Plus i'm venting cause it just kills me when they strike out with a man on third.

Howard swung at a ball in the dirt. They usually throw him complete crap with two strike b/c chances are he offers. And that was hardly a defensive swing as he checked at it so there was no shot at doing anything with the pitch. He got fooled and my point is he shouldn't be fooled b/c he should know by now they aren't giving him a fastball on a 1-2 count.

My vitriol towards the Yankees is boiling just from reading your posts (in related news, I think I have a crush on DoubleH).

Back to Cliff Lee (if I may)... A while back I read an article about the Lee throwing a beanball rhubarb, and one of the comments said that Lee was always a jackass. That's the first I've heard anything negative about his personality. Anyone have any unbiased or objective info on that subject? (I know, I know... Lee's not a Phillie anymore so we shouldn't care, but...)

"Mayberry doesn't bring much to the table as a PH option but he is a solid defensive replacement (better than Francisco) who gives you some speed off the bench for a lineup that has a couple of plodders. Plus, Mayberry gives Cholly more flexibility on how he wants to use Francisco later in games too."


MG- I am with you. I also think having that 12th pitcher is basically useless on this team.

For all that Mayberry might not give you as a PH (although I'd much rather see him up there then Bruntlett, Nunez or Castro), he gives the bench somebody that can run and a good glove in the OF. And it frees up Francisco to do what he does best...which is hit.

Werth looked terrible in CF today. Hamels and Burnett both looked like they had no life on their pitches today (dead arm period?). Polanco looked much better at 3B today, then he did a few weeks ago. Herndon was touching 92 MPH with his fastball and has serious movement on all of his pitches. Looks like a guy that could be used, with runners on base, to try and get a double play.

thephaithful: A switch-hitter hits from the left side vs. RHP. Duh!

OK, let's review denny b's logic.

1. Greg Dobbs plays 3B. Russ Gload has never played an inning at 3B.

2. Dobbs has HR power. Gload has no HR power.

3. "Dobbs and Gload ARE the same player."

Kutztown, about whether or not Cliff Lee is a "jackass:" I do not have any inside info, but I figure the fact that every Phillie asked (Charlie, Jimmy, Howard, Chase are all guys I've heard speak to this) has expressed disappointment at seeing him go, and that Chase said he hopes to play with him again someday, counts for something. They might simply appreciate him for his pitching skills, I suppose, but I'm inferring from their comments that he's at least a good-enough teammate, too.

Clout,

You kill the heck out of some dead horses.

Ibanez strikes out with Howard on third and one out. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH!!!! Make #%&@ing contact!!!

That's it. I'm not watching anymore spring training games b/c its not worth the blood pressure.

denny b: You also continue to believe that Francisco (a career 106 OPS+ player) will be used primarily as a late-inning defensive replacement. Let's see how Charlie used Francisco last year (37 games):

Started: 19
Replaced Victorino in the 1st inning (don't remember, but I think Shane was ejected): 1
Pinch-hit: 15
Late-inning defensive replacement: 2

Gsl: Denny's still riding that horse. I'm just pointing out that it's dead.

HR on a breaking ball to the opposite field. Pretty impressive.

PHlinBK, can't you talk yourself out of caring too much with the line about it's ST, doesn't count? It's working for me, although I do have to remind myself of it every day.

Your BP will really suffer come July when we hit our annual interleague swoon and continue through periodic collective slumps into September! :)

PHlinBK: Ibanez has barely made contact with a ball all ST. He is struggling, as is Werth a bit.

Kutztown Fan: Awww, shucks. Wish that my own husband appreciated my sports fanaticism as much. He only appreciates it when it allows him to buy various tickets and jerseys, etc.

Furthermore, of 127 starts in LF last season, Ibanez was taken out before the end of the game 11 times. 9 of those 11 were in July, right after he came off the DL. In the 5 other months in which he was not immediately recovering from an injury, he finished 109 of his 111 starts.

GBrettFan - Yeah, I heard all the Phils express regret that Lee was traded, and he sure seemed like a good guy. That's why the jackass comment really grabbed my attention. It seemed so unwarranted.

How did Dane Sardinha look today?

If Dobbs pinch hits, then the manager can(and most likely will if possible) bring in a LHP.

So switch hitters getting ABs from the left side doesnt hold much water in that argument.

Also, you just mentioned their handedness and PAs, but no reference to their PAs from a certain side.

DH Phils - It will be interesting to see how that plays out this season but your probably right. My bet is that Cholly will likely continue to trot Ibanez out there for 9 innings each night because he doesn't want to lose his bat & use up his main right-handed bat off the bench.

It would make sense though to start Francisco though more in LF especially against some of the tough LHP. Asking Ibanez to start 150+ games this year doesn't seem like a wise course of action with a 38-year old LF. Like him more in the 130-135 start range.

Is Broken Bells worth the buy? The 2 tracks I heard were pretty good, anyway.

clout: He looked good at the plate and went 2-4 with 4RBI. Wonder if his catching is what threw Cole off at all?

Wasn't there another recent reference to Lee's personality? I'll have to dig around the internet a bit, but there was something regarding him being a little "out there". Not a Milton Bradley type, just doing his own thing.

Just watching him, he strikes me as one of those guys who's a machine- just goes out there and does his thing.

No comments about Stutes?

That one pitch he threw started at the low and away and ended up being up and in on the hands, nasty!

Dobbs: 2.8% HR/AB
Gload 2.0% HR/AB

So for every 125 ABs, Dobbs should have 1 more HR than Gload. Not sure I'd call one much different than the other in terms of HR ability.

thephaithful: The Phils have had 2 LH PH or a LH and SW PHs (who hit LH vs. RHP) in each of the past 5 years for reasons explained by DH Phils in his post I reprinted above.

They will have 2 LH PH this year as well, for those same reasons. If you can explain why they shouldn't or why they won't, I'm all ears. You do understand DH Phils post, right?

BBeard: I remember hearing rumors about his dislike for hispanic catchers. Have no links or anything like that, but once Paul Bako started catching him I know I remember reading about Vic Martinez having to DH when Lee started.

Cliff: Broken Bells is a 'B' for me. It's a toss-up. The new Gorillaz, which isn't listed, is definitely a buyer.

thephaithful:

Gload has hit 28 HRs in 1432 ABs. That is 1.9% (1 every 51 ABs).

Dobbs has hit 26 HRs in 926 ABs. That is 2.8% (1 every 35 ABs).

In other words, Dobbs is 40%+ more likely to hit a HR than Gload. That is a HUGE difference.

I see Dobbs as having very little marginal value to the Phils compared to a lot of other teams.

I'd rather shop him and see if you could get a team to bite who has inferior LH on their bench or even in need of a platoon mate for a weak position.

I don't deny that he would get PHs, but i don't follow others who think he holds less value in a trade than he does to the 2010 phillies. He makes over $1M so maybe his trade value isn't that great, but I still think another team could use his services much more than the Phils and maybe someone is willing to deal.

This huge difference you speak of only holds true if they both are batting about 15000 times a year.

Fortunately, they are both only likely to get in the mid 100s, which makes their difference in power almost meaningless.

And not that any of us have talked about using these numbers in any predictive aspect, but...

Who do you think will hit more HRs as a Phillie in 2010? Gload or Dobbs?

I'll take Gload straight up, without the approx 3:2 odds you're giving me. Maybe we can add your repsonse to the list mikes77 is tracking at the end of the year.

Clout: You're overselling it. over 500 at bats your talking about 14 vs 9.5 homeruns. Since neither is going to get that many at bats, you're talking 2 maybe 3 homeruns a year. Dobbs has been better over the past 3 years, but Gload had the better year last year. The difference between the two of them is not great, though Dobbs is probably the better player.

And you really don't think a switch hitter is a better bench option than someone who hits LH only?

Clout: you also aren't adjusting for context as Dobbs played all 3 of his meaningful years in Philly's more favorable park against NL pitching while Gload played 6 meaningful years in the "tougher" AL and then moved for a year to the more cavernous Dolphins/ proplayer/ marlins stadium.

meaningful being years in which they received more than 53 at bats

Wow, BL continues to surprise me, or rather, some of the posts I read here surprise me.

Never before have I seen this written or heard it uttered by anyone:

---A batter, who is primarily a PH, needs 15,000 AB in a year to have his power potential become meaningful. Well.....OK then.

---I may be reading too much into Jbird's comment, but he seems to be saying that 2-3 HR/yr. for a PH is irrelevant and that clout is "overselling" it's significance.

Well....OK then.

I wonder if the any of the Phillies thought that HR that got called foul against the Red Sox last June was irrelevant or unmeaningful?

Some other points about Dobbs, though I'm sure some here will dismiss them as irrelevant or unmeaningful:

He has hit for significantly more power since joining the Phillies and having Milt and Charlie "school" him, 1 HR every 29 AB - 20 HR power ass-u-ming 580 AB.

He hits for better power as a starter than as a substitute.

He has the exact same BA against LHP as RHP, but his OBP drops, and his SLG drops significantly vs. LHP.

Heres another thing about Gload, he can hit left handed pitchers. Most of Dobbs bats were against right handed pitchers. So stats are not necessary fair. Gload started games for Marlins at first so he did face both types pitchers and if I remember correctly he did hit lefties fairly good.

Jbird, you do realize of course that Dobbs(51 PA) has a higher SLG in Pro Player stadium than Gload does(120 PA), although neither sample size is huge.

Oh, he also has a higher SLG in Kauffman Stadium as well. (micro sample size alert).

My point is that you need to check before you post.

The examples you used actually favor Dobbs significantly.

fljerry, see my post above. Dobbs has the same BA against RHP and LHP.

He can "hit" LHP, but it's the power that drops.

Gload, OTOH, hits for BETTER AVG against LHP, but like Dobbs, sees a drop off in SLG.

Jbird, thephaithful: 2 or 3 extra HRs a year from a PH are meaningless.

Interesting.

thephaithful: Dobbs will hit more HRs per AB than Gload, assuming both are healthy. That's a no brainer.

You are doing the equivalent of betting that Polanco will have a better HR rate than Utley.

Where are these extra 3HR coming from?

For Dobbs to hit 3 more HR than Gload in the same amount of chances, he would need 335 ABs.

In 335 ABs, Dobbs would average 9.5HR and Gload 6.5HR.

In a more realistic 150ABs, they would be at (Gload)3HR and (Dobbs)4.3HR - maybe awh can take his own advice and check before he posts "2-3HR".

"Dobbs will hit more HRs per AB than Gload, assuming both are healthy. That's a no brainer."

Clout, now you are making the stastically flawed argument. Last year, Dobbs got 159 ABs and hit 5 HRs. Thats a 3.1% HR rate. Gload's HR rate last year was 2.6%. Extrapolated to the 159 ABs that Dobbs got, that would mean that Gload would have hit 4 home runs last year.

There is no statistical difference between the 4 Gload would have hit and the 5 that Dobbs did hit. So you can't say that Dobbs will hit more HRs than Gload if used similarly as PHs. Now, if they each got 500 ABs, then I would agree with you.

Spitz: Let me repeat: "Dobbs will hit more HRs per AB than Gload, assuming both are healthy."

You want to take the other end of that bet?

Is it not fair to say that based on their careers, that Greg Dobbs is more likely to hit a home run than Ross Gload?

Dobbs and Gload each emerged during the last three seasons into the role they currently have.

During those 3 seasons, Dobbs hits a HR every 32 ABs and Gload hits a HR ever 59 ABs.

I know everyone thinks we need to extrapolate that over time, but we don't. That's a pointless exercise. Pinch hitters generally get one at bat per game and if you need a HR in that AB, who are you going to send up to the plate vs. a RHP?

Yo, new thread!

Yo, new thread.

Crap, late to the party.

Yo, new thread party!

yo new thread.. damn

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