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Sunday, March 14, 2010

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Wow, interesting debate on which gospel to follow: BA, mikey, clout, Schweitzer.....

The funny thing is that no one really "knows" how peospects, or even guys who have made it to MLB will pan out. Just take a look at Ankiel - a top pitching prospect who looked like he was going to be a solid member of a rotation and then imploded. He's not alone, and, as has been stated a number of times on this site, there are many many guys who wind up being AAAA players.

IMHO, the Phillies, in building the core of players that they now have, have shown - despite obvious mistakes that ALL teams make - somewhat of an ability to evaluate talent. As such, perhaps we should give them the benefit of the doubt.

As I have said before, it remains to be seen what effect the long-term effect of losing Mike Arbuckle will be.

Happ looked incredible yesterday. That slider was really impressive, I think all of his Ks came off the slider. He also threw a really nice curveball to span.

Kendrick seems to be pitching pretty well again today. So far, 2 innings 1 hit 0BBs 0Ks (5GB-1FB). Not completely sure but hasn't he not walked a batter this spring?

Hey, Jonny, are you gonna go get the papers, get the papers, or what?

I'll cross my fingers that Happ beats the dire projections of regression. I like what I've seen of his makeup. To add to the cliches, he's a gamer. I'm hoping Kendrick has truly expanded his repertoire because, you can be as game as you want as a starter, you still have to get teh leftys out.

Thinking back to this story about Utley's offseason conditioning program:

http://www.phillyburbs.com/opinions/blogs/burbsblogs/phils_ville/phils_ville_details/article/180/2010/february/18/chase-utley-and-the-derek-jeter-workout.html

...and then looking at his .467 BA in ST so far. I know ST stats mean nothing, but what if Utley's a whole different animal this year? Fun to think about.

Awesome work by KK again today.

4 IP, 0 runs, with 0 walks and 9 groundball outs.


The starting pitching has been unbelievable this spring. Can't last forever like this, but its fun to watch your starters put up 0's almost every time out.

The bats have been a little quiet though.


I love Big Bang theory and while reading some of clout's posts this exchange just pops out in my head.

Now, you listen here. I have being telling you since you were four years old, it's okay to be smarter than everybody but you can't go around pointing it out.
-Mary
Why not?
-Sheldon
Because people don't like it. You don't remember all the ass kickings you got from the neighbor kids.

This story caught me completely by surprise

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4994845

A Pujols for Howard swap was allegedly discussed. I can't imagine it was really a possibility, but its certainly intriguing

dennyb: What was KK's K/9 rate today? I sure hope you're not suggesting he can be successful without a K/9 of 5. Beerleaguer's "experts" have said that's not possible.

Howard for Pujols?????? whatttt????
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4994845
This is a crazy story. For those of you pujols lovers, you might get a chance to root for him in red pinstripes. I think there is a 0.1% chance of this happening.

The Phillies don't need Pujols.

I'd swap Howard for Pujols in a split second. Less than that.

Who was the source for that story? @bap?

The problem with a trade like that, is that I doubt the Cards would do an even up swap... and we'd probably have to give up JA Happ and/or one of the characters from the Lee trade.

Someone must be bored today.

I find it frustrating that Moyer is still pitching in B games. Tomorrow we've got Halladay going in the A game against the Tigers and Moyer going in the B game against the Jays. Why? Why not flip flop them?

If Utley could manage a .400 season in the bigs, I would value that more than another WFC. But only because we've got that first WFC out of the way.

From the last thread regarding Gillies vs Saunders:
clout said, "I'm basing my view on who has a better chance of being a successful major leaguer on BA and other scouting reports"

I also base my opinion on BA and other sources. That is why I purchase their handbook every year. But since you say you base your opinion on other sources, here is what Sickels had to say about Saunders:

"I don't like him as much as some people do. I see him more as a solid .270/.330/.450 type than a future star" - Sickels

So if you feel a 20 HR Leftfielder with an expected output of .780 was a missed opportunity, then more power to you. I say that is nothing special for a LeftFielder. Ryan Church puts up that kind of line. I'll take the chance on the 4 tool Centerfielder over that everytime.

Ok, I'm back to my senses. Bring on WFC2.

I'd give up J.A. Happ or any/all of the Lee trade chips for Pujols, if we could afford the massive extension. Pujols is that much better than Howard that it wouldn't matter if we'd need to rush Brown or have a replacement-level OF or SP somewhere.

So back to reality, this isn't going to happen.

Hmm, Ryan Howard or the greatest hitter of the last 40 years?

Tough choice.

BTW,

"I don't like (Michael Saunders) as much as some people do. I see him more as a solid .270/.330/.450 type" - Sickels

Ben Francisco

Career: .263/.330/.446
2009: .278/.317/.843

Baseball america knows more than me undoubtedly, but maybe Ruben Amaro knows more than you, clout. Just Maybe?

I'd say at minimum st louis would want a package of Howard, Happ and Gose. Boy i love howard but Pujols on this team would be 27 yankees territory

NOBODY KNOWS MORE THAN CLOUT!!! Blasphemy from you mikes77. that personally offended me and I'm sure all of beerleaguer. We need an apology.

mikes77: Well, we'll eventually get to find out if you're right or not, won't we?

And, as I mentioned earlier, when you find a quote from Amaro or any other Phillie official saying that they think Gillies is a better prospect than Saunders, you let me know, OK?

I find it quite amusing that you are so certain how these 2 guys are going to turn out.

For this Phillies team I would take Gillies over Saunders.

I apologize toddzilla.

Do not be amused, clout. I am not certain how these two guys turn out. Gillies just seems to be the higher ceiling prospect to me, that is all.

Does Pujols for Howard matter if we can't afford to keep either one of them. I think it goes the other way. St. Lou has a better chance of signing Howard with a hometown discount, so we get Pujols and prospects. If St. Lou balks at that idea, screw em. We're doing them the favor.

toddzilla: I don't disagree. See my prior posts. Amaro, IMHO, took Gillies because our best prospect is a LH corner OF and a superior prospect to Saunders. Gillies is a high OB, good-glove CF and a superior prospect to Gose. My only point is that Saunders is the better prospect in terms of likelihood to be a productive major leaguer. Gillies is more of a classic high risk/high ceiling guy.

I also find it quite amusing that mikes77 is denigrating Saunders by comparing him to Francisco. Francisco may well be the Phillies starting RF in 2011. Seattle will be quite happy if Saunders turns out to be another Francisco.

Friend who was at the spring training game today said KK looked like a machine out there. Working relatively quickly, locating pitch after pitch, and not leaving anything up. Lot of weak grounders and dinks. Moyer almost certainly will get the No. 5 starter spot but you can't see that KK hasn't done everything he possibly could to earn a job.

Yesteday clout said "mikes77, another great point by you. Gilles will certainly be far more valuable in MLB than a much higher rated prospect (Seattle's #2 according to BA; Gilles was #8).
I'll tell ya what, not many here as sharp as you. Already know that Gilles will be better than Saunders. Ruben may be hiring you soon."

Since your 6:22pm post pretty much says repeats what I have been saying, I'll take that as I've convinced you of my point.

MG, thats why its frustrating that the Phils insist on pitching in B game against marginal AA talent.

Again, this is ST and lifers say that pitchers are ahead of hitters at this point. However, reports of the quality and quantity of executed pitches is simply awesome.

Of course, the wildcard is the bullpen, which has a lot of big stuff, little command guys - the one exception being Madson. Manuel and Dubee have their work cut out for them in managing the bullpen and sending out the right guy to the mound in the right moment. Hopefully it won't be like russian roulette.

Forget Pujols for Howard. This team needs to start stocking up and developing the next Howard and the next Utley. The Phillies may now be considered a big(ger) market team with their payroll, but they still need to think like a small market team. It's all about getting value where you can. As I've stated before, just as an example, Moyer, Blanton, Ibanez, Howard, Polanco, and Vic are probably going to provide as much as they're being paid unless they go abnormally ballistic. Guys like Werth, Halladay and Utley provide lots of value even though they get paid quite a bit. This year, the significant values will hopefully be in the rotation with Happ and Kendrick.

mikes77: I see you have reading comprehension problems in addition to everything else.

Spitz - Yeah but KK supposedly has had good stuff including offspeed stuff/location this spring.

Moyer/KK easily have been the stories of this spring training just given the lack of really interesting other story lines. That is probably a good thing though too since there hasn't been a single 'negative' story or development in camp. Not a one. That's amazing.

Amaro on the supposed internal discussion regarding Howard-Pujols:

"Lies," he said. "That's a lie. I don't know who you're talking to, but that's a lie."

Didn't exactly dance around the bus on that one even if they were true. Makes sense because the last thing the Phils need is stupid idle conjecture becoming a distracting issue.

Why do I suspect Dallas Green had a role in 'internal discussion' though?

Kendrick is doing everything he possibly can to get that 5th spot. It may all be for naught though, as Moyer is pretty much being handed the gig as long as he's able to pitch.

Someone brought up the whole A game/B game thing earlier with Moyer, and I couldn't agree more. I think Spring Training stats are overrated to begin with, but putting up numbers in B games is even more overrated than the normal stats.

In last year's 5th starter battle, did CHoP pitch in a bunch of B games? Does anyone remember?

Spitz - I think he did if I recall correctly especially the first 2-3 weeks in camp.

Wasn't Benny Looper pushing Gillies over Saunders as well?

"Friend who was at the spring training game today said KK looked like a machine out there."

MG- Sounds about like he looked last Monday against the Yanks.

KK has been the story of ST so far. Followed by Hamels, Mayberry, Brown, Gillies and possibly Werth (for his grooming).

What KK is doing, is winning a spot on the 25 man roster. May not be as the 5th starter, but it will be as a pitcher on the staff.

To Moyer's credit, he has pitched very well also; albeit in "B" games. And he has to to keep his job. KK has been that good.

I think Carpenter has looked solid as well. Another good performance (with 5 K's too) today. He will likely be the "first man up", from AAA, should a starter need replaced for whatever reason. A nice "stop gap" guy, who all teams need.

As for the LOOGY situation, Bastardo and Escalona aren't exactly taking the bull by the horns. Would seem to me, that the door may have opened for Bronco Zagurski, to show something. Still think the FO and coaches want AB to win it and he has the best tools of the 3. But somebody needs to start pitching well and getting some outs, or none of the 3 are going to be going north.

I realize it's in hindsight, but the Yankees got a sick bargain in CHoP for 1.2M. I'd rather have him in the BP over Durbin for 2.125M. CHoP will most likely signficantly outperform his contract regardless of whether he's in the rotation or bullpen. Durbin...we'll see.

Baez is going to be a key BP member this year. From what I've seen so far, he's a great fit and will provide that third power arm behind Madson and Lidge.

How the "internal discussion" probably really went:

Rube: Wouldn't it be funny if we traded Howard straight up for Pujols?

Gillick: While you're at it, why not offer Blanton to San Fran for Lincecum...and see if you can get Seattle to bite on a Happ/Felix Hernandez swap.

Rube: ~makes offers~

Rube: Damn, they went for it?!?

Gillick: Did you turn "fair trades" off again?

Rube: Oh right, I must have done that when I started the franchise mode.

~camera pans back revealing a large plasma tv, PS3 and MLB 2010 game in progress~

Rube: This team will be unstoppable!!!

LOL @ NEPP thats pretty much how it would've gone, except Gillick would be yelling at Amaro to stop playing video games and clean up his room.

.

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