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Saturday, March 27, 2010

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I'm pretty sure I don't want to know the details on Flande...

LOL...great post JW. You're on top of your game this morning.

Beerleaguer "bachelors?"
Other than clout, I believe,
it's just you and Roy

NEPP: You won the Zolecki book by random selection in the "Better Team Now or in Game 6" thread. Email your mailing address and I'll get it to you.

Lidge will stay behind in Clearwater when Phillies head north Wednesday, according to Gelb.

Lots of info in this header. Reading between the lines, it looks like Geezer breaks camp in the starting rotation. As for the TV shows, I don't care as I don't watch either show. In the Phield, I proudly cast my vote for BL.

I wonder how low he'll have to go before Lidge can throw a scoreless inning.

****NEPP: You won the Zolecki book by random selection in the "Better Team Now or in Game 6" thread. Email your mailing address and I'll get it to you.****

Really?!? Sweet!!!

I knew obsessively posting on this site for 3+ straight years, hundreds of posts, probably thousands would finally pay off!

0.2 cents per post?

From MLBTraderumors:

"Phillies' rightfielder Jayson Werth will be one of the hottest commodities on the free agent market next year, and the Yankees might have an ace in the hole if they choose to pursue him. As if they need any more help, Joel Sherman of The New York Post notes that Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson - a special advisor for the Yanks - has a longstanding relationship with Werth's family.

Jackson became good friends with Werth's stepfather Dennis when the two patrolled the Yankees' outfield in the late-70's/early-80's, and he also played with Dick Schofield during his Angels years, who is Jayson's uncle (his mother's brother, to be specific). Sherman says that Jackson and Werth had lunch together before the two teams played yesterday, and then were spotted on the field chatting before first pitch. The commissioner's office frowns upon members of different organizations interacting like that, but Sherman says it happens all the time and the league would have to be able to illustrate tampering to act in any way."

Just fantastic.

This means that in addition to having the 30th pick in the draft for winning the World Series, we will also get the 29th pick from the Yankees for signing Werth. Great news.

"Other than clout, I believe,"


My guess is that clout sets his DVR to Hannah Montana.

And likely something in the 40-50 range as well due to our 2nd Comp pick for losing him.

Wow...maybe we could get the next Anthony Hewitt.

I dont see us bringing Werth back so I expect some sort of platoon situation in RF next year. Which means we'll need a good LH bat to pair with Francisco.

The problem with platooning Francisco is twofold.

1. Francisco has essentially even splits.

2. Ibanez will be 39 in LF. Odds are Francisco will actually need to platoon with him or at least start 40-50 times there.

Now, its a possibility that Dom Brown will be ready. If he starts off well in AA and progresses to AAA in the June/July timeframe, there's a good shot he gets a legit chance to win a spot on the 2011 roster.

Regardless, we will need to sign a good 4th starter...someone along the lines of what Jenkins was SUPPOSED to be when we signed him.

Considering we get fairly good power from SS & 2B, we dont NEED a pure power hitter in RF...just someone who can be decent offensively and not kill us defensively. We could also look at CF free agents and move Vic back to RF where he is fantastic defensively...enough so that his lesser power is acceptable for the position.

Any thoughts as to who might be available next year?

Here's the list of 2011 OF free agents:

Alfredo Amezaga LAD
Pat Burrell TB
Eric Byrnes SEA
Frank Catalanotto NYM
Carl Crawford TB
Coco Crisp OAK *
Michael Cuddyer MIN *
David DeJesus KC *
Adam Dunn WAS
Jermaine Dye CWS
Jody Gerut MIL
Jose Guillen KC
Willie Harris WAS
Brad Hawpe COL *
Austin Kearns CLE
Jason Kubel MIN *
Magglio Ordonez DET *
Marcus Thames NYY
Jayson Werth PHI

Not much there...not for what we're looking for.

****Wow...maybe we could get the next Anthony Hewitt.****

We'll have 3 chances with that many high picks. We could also get the next Zach Collier and Joe Savery.

At least Lidge has been consistently getting the same results so far in spring training . . .

If Raul needs a platoon partner Mayberry might be passable. If they lose Werth I imagine they start out with Francisco, Mayberry, Ibanez, and Gload/Dobbs as their corner guys, with Brown called up a month or two in to keep an extra year of team control. I just don't see much value in bringing in a Jenkins type guy when Brown will be better than him in short order. I still hold out hope they can extend Werth and trade Ibanez for some salary relief (obviously not his entire contract, but hopefully most of it).

Devil's advocate:

1. Lidge's struggles - That is now 4 appearances for Lidge against guys who won't be on Opening Day rosters and 4 straight games where he has been hit kind of hard & given up at least 1 run. He was supposedly at mid-80s on the radar gun and topping out at 88 MPH today (friend at the game who texted).

2. Ibanez's struggles - After another 0fer last night, Ibanez is now hitting .098 in 41 ABs. I know small sample size, etc.

Zolecki wrote this article on the 24th on Ibanez entitled "Phils not worried about Ibanez's struggles"

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100324&content_id=8914220&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

In the piece, Zolecki highlights how Ibanez since becoming a full-time starter in '03 has hit really well in spring training.

2003: .290 (20-for-69) with no homers and 12 RBIs
2004: .415 (27-for-65) with two homers and 18 RBIs
2005: .356 (31-for-87) with four homers and 27 RBIs
2006: .443 (17-for-61) with five homers and 13 RBIs
2007: .444 (20-for-45) with five homers and 14 RBI
2008: .256 (11-for-43) with one homer and 12 RBIs
209: .310 (26-for-84) with two homers and 15 RBIs

Ibanez was quoted as saying, "I've had springs before when I've been really good, and then April 1 rolls around and I'm like, 'What happened?'" he said."

I wanted to see if Ibanez's strong spring training stats do translate over into a strong start in April and if his statement is generally accurate.

April splits for Ibanez:
2003: 330/392/549 for an OPS of .942
2004: 260/348/532 for an OPS of .881
2005: 294/394/447 for an OPS of .841
2006: 301/345/505 for an OPS of .850
2007: 253/291/354 for an OPS of .645
2008: 291/336/491 for an OPS of .827
2009: 359/433/718 for an OPS of 1.151

Monthly rank by OPS/best month by OPS:

2003: 1st/April
2004: 2nd/June
2005: 2nd/June
2006: 3rd/June
2007: 6th (worst)/August
2008: t-3rd/August
2009: 1st/April


Splits for 10 G of season for Ibanez:
2003: 359/409/607 for an OPS of 1.076
2004: 242/316/364 for an OPS of .679
2005: 189/268/270 for an OPS of .539
2006: 333/409/487 for an OPS of .896
2007: 205/214/231 for an OPS of .445
2008: 250/357/472 for an OPS of .829
2009: 375/432/800 for an OPS of 1.232

Conclusions:

1. April is generally been kind to Ibanez since he has become a full-time starter. With the exception of 2007, it has been one of his most productive offensive months trailing only June & August overall.

2. Ibanez is generally accurate when saying that there are times he was hitting the ball in spring training well only to not have that translate over into the start of the season right away. In 2004, 2005, and 2007, he had pretty strong/very strong spring training numbers only to not do much at all the first 10 games (3 series) of the season.

3. Getting out to a slow start in April though will likely hurt Ibanez's overall numbers more than it would others players because he is a guy that generally hits well in April even if he gets out a slower start in the first 2-3 series.

4. Interested to see how Ibanez looks this final week in spring training. If he continues to struggle, my bet is that that he gets out to a pretty slow start. Slated to face 3 LHP starters in DC in the Opening Series and likely will 2 see of them again in Philly in the home opening series.

5. My bet is that Ibanez's struggles in spring training are going to translate over into the regular season to start the year and that he doesn't do much offensively the first 2 weeks of the season.

Just a question of whether he can turn it around as he did in previous year (2004/05) when he got out to a slow start in April or if he will struggle most of the month.

I am kind of leaning to struggling for most of the month (and May too) but that Ibanez will have one of his infamous streaks in him sometime in June that starts to lift his overall numbers.

I don't know, NEPP. I've heard some things about this Burrell kid.

If Lidge has another 3-4 rehab appearances and is still only topping out at 88 or 89 MPH on his 4-seemer, this will be appropriate regarding Lidge:

"Danger, Ruben Amaro! Danger!"

Good post, MG. Might as well throw it up in a header tomorrow it's that good.

@ Unikruk, NEPP

Gives a whole new meaning to "penny for your thoughts".

I didn't hear the game. Anyone know if Hamels was working on his secondary pitches, or why he had a sub-par outing? Also, does Contreras just stink or is there hope of improvement there?

Another guy who is quietly has a solid spring and hitting his spots well supposedly (& throwing his slider more) - Durbin.

Completely off the radar almost all spring but I bet he is closer to the '08 version than the '09 version this year. Better control on his fastball and more sliders that produce more groundballs with better results.

That would be great for Durbin and the Phils, MG.

Just saw the bit about Werth and the Yankees. :( I know it's likely, but I feel like having one of our own go to the dark side is just woeful. (I know, it's only fans who feel that way, and not all of us, but I just can't help it. Werth would no doubt be thrilled, like most players, to play for "such a storied franchise" blah blah blah yuck.)

Watched Hamels pitch on Wed. against the Braves and just read the box from today - though only spring training I have officially taken my eggs out of the Cole Hamels basket. With all the optismism from Jayson Stark and others this spring, I think he is still more Jamie Moyer than Cliff Lee.

Dukes: No doubt about it, Hamels, like Moyer, Kendrick and Howard, is washed up.

In Beerleaguer World.

Where J.D. (not Chad) Durbin is a 20-game winner, Matt Smith the league's best setup man and Pedro Feliz an annual All-Star.

GBrettfan: Werth's grandpa, Ducky, played for the Pirates. So maybe the black and gold will be his choice.

The above statement has as much validity as Joel Sherman's story.

I would certainly trust Durbin over Contreras in a close game in the early part of the season.

Is Contreras younger than Moyer? Are you sure about that?

Remember, he was a defector from Cuba and his birth certificate has never been verified.

On the other hand, a 60-year-old Satchel Paige shut down a pretty good Red Sox offense for 3 shutout innings back in '65.

couple quotes after the game. seems like they are fine with Hamels

Hamels spring training numbers, if I remember correctly, are usually if not always terrible.

"Cole's real close," manager Charlie Manual said. "Right now, he's really close to getting his command down. He ain't quite there yet, but he's very close."

"I'm really happy with how he's thrown -- very, very happy," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. "And I didn't expect anything less. I'm not surprised by it. I'm happy that he came -- without question -- physically prepared for the season and for the spring."

Golly gee, here we go again at BL.

A couple of pitchers have a bad outing and some here are ready to trade them for a used bag of balls and a J.D. Durbin rookie card.

OTOH, that Butler Bulldog baseketball team looks pretty darn good.

Haha, "taken my eggs out of the Cole Hamels basket."

That's adorable, but seriously, there is no reason to be worried about Hamels at this point.

Also, I don't really know why you would compare him to either Cliff Lee or Jamie Moyer. Both of them are very location-dependent lefties (although obviously Cliff Lee is vastly superior), while Hamels is a fastball-changeup guy with a fastball that sits around 92 when he's all tuned up, and a changeup that is just devastating. He's a front-of-the-rotation talent coming off of a league-average (but down for him) year and everyone gets on him because he looks too frustrated and said a dumb thing or two. As a Phillies fan it's actually pretty embarrassing, to be honest.

I'm with Phylan, Cole seems to bring out the knee-jerk idiocy in a lot of Phillie fans. Some people have very short memories.

Phylan: Good post.

I'm happy that Cole's stretched out and has his velocity. The rest is no big deal.


On the game today, looks like Schneider gunned Delmon Young at 2B and had a couple more hits as both of those were a concern recently.

And Contreras got hammered again.

Last year was just a bump in the road for Hamels. He's only 26. I don't just expect him to return to his form of 2007 and 2008. I think he will improve on those performances and not reach his peak until he's a few years older. Barring injury, he should be excellent for the next 10 years.

Mariners are supposedly looking for starting pitching with the uncertainty around Lee's health. I wonder if they have inquired about Moyer. I know, I know, having 6 SPs is a nice luxary, but so is having some freed up capital to make a trade or two late in the season.

Per MLBTraderumors, we're interested in Chad Gaudin as pitching insurance.

There's no way we can offer him a spot on the 25 man though...at least not as a starter. Even the BP is pretty full up right now.

I also dont see him taking a AAA spot.

Spitz, the Phillies are looking to add cheap starters for depth.

They're not about to trade Moyer and hurt the same depth that they're trying to build.

Hell, I'd take Gaudin if he's OK with a minor league deal. Depends on what other teams are offering of course.

Moose Mattair retired?

say it ain't so, clout...

Ever since Mike Schmidt:
"Third baseman of the future!"
But not Moose Mattair.

Just read through the last thread.

hh: the lawn thing was me. I think I was listing Moyer's challenges for the up-coming season, one of which was to refrain from yelling at Howard and Utley: "Hey! You kids! Get off the lawn!"

If he's still around next year he may have to work on refraining from bringing along a shotgun, too.

muchacho: I didn't see that. Do you have a link? If true, another tools prospect bites the dust. He was not the huge Beerleaguer fave that some of the others were, but I recall Sir Alden projecting him as the starter by 2012.

Whatever happened to Sir Alden?

I expect to pop this page open sometime next week and read that Lidge gave up 2 runs in one inning of work against Albright at George Field.

Reading will be most interesting this year. Beyond Brown, Gillies and Galvis, there is the rotation, which is a nice mix of very good projectable talent and command/health questions: Phillipe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez, Edgar Garcia, Vance Worley and Drew Naylor.

Those first 3 all throw mid-90s and Worley and Naylor are effective when they put the ball where they want (a skill that comes and goes.)

If everything clicks though, could be a nice rotation and fun to watch.

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