Beerleaguer, Zolecki deliberate a big Phillies question

Todd Zolecki, author of the new book “The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: Heart-Pounding, Jaw-Dropping, and Gut-Wrenching Moments from Philadelphia Phillies History,” drops by to provide his take on the most important question heading into 2010.

Beerleaguer: Can you definitively say the Phillies are a better team today than the one that stepped off the field in Game 6?

Todd Zolecki: I think the Phillies are better than the '09 World Series team. I know people love Cliff Lee, but Roy Halladay is better than Lee. Is he much better? No, I would not say he is much better. But he is an upgrade, and that counts for something. If Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero and Raul Ibanez are healthy that also makes them better. I really like the addition of Polanco to the lineup, although I haven't seen enough of him at third base to know how much the Phillies will miss Pedro Feliz's defense. The Phillies have upgraded their bench. They think they have adequately replaced Chan Ho Park and Clay Condrey in the bullpen with Danys Baez and Jose Contreras. And I really like what I have seen from Cole Hamels this spring. I think he is going to bounce back in a big way. He really seems to be in a good frame of mind, determined to make everybody forget about his '09 postseason struggles.

Beerleaguer: I felt the same way until 97.5’s Mike Missanelli put the screws to me when he asked the same question in an interview last week. My endorsement unraveled when I brought up the bullpen. Right now, their closer and top lefty are recovering from surgery. They could be forced to lean on three green relievers to start the season. Contreras seems like a good sleeper signing, but he’s long of tooth and unproven in this role. If anyone from the group containing Contreras, Danys Baez, Ryan Madson or Chad Durbin gets hurt, they’re going to be in trouble. I’m not as excited about guys like Antonio Bastardo and David Herndon as the Phillies seem to be. We agree the bench is better. Ross Gload is the difference there, and I’m not as sour on Juan Castro as most Beerleaguers. I worry about Brian Schneider’s health because the minor league options are brutal. I’m not worried about the rotation and also expect improvement from Hamels. But I also expect some minor regression from J.A. Happ and possibly Joe Blanton. I’m not as excited about the addition of Polanco, but agree he’s a better fit for the lineup. Actually, I don’t believe we’ll see a noticeable improvement from the offense, not that there is much room for improvement. The Phillies are a powerhouse. I think they’re better, but I can’t say it with conviction. So my answer is 'no.'

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Comments

[LwrSlwrGeorge]

Yes, with Halladay > Lee being the first reason. While it is impossible to fault Cliff's performance in the WS, I recall he had a few off-games in a row. I had a chat with a gent who has an old-friends connection with an AL East powerhouse. In his words "If you liked Cliff Lee, you'll love Halladay. He's that much better."

Early signs point to '10 Hamels being better than '09 Hamels, beit in pitches or in his head. ST means something in the mental prep area.

Nothing I can point to statistically with KK, but there's a feeling that 6th starter KK will ease the sense of dred I had of which Brett Myers will show up for the game. KK out of the pen? Very possible, given the concerns there.

Some concern with Polly being a step down defensively at 3rd, but he is a step up offensively for that position. It's not like MLB players are going to say "hit it to 3rd, he can't field."

Prefer another RHB option off the bench.

The bullpen is what it is: questions followed by concerns. It makes me miss Everday Clay. Lidge, Contreras, Bastardo, JC? Baez? Madson as closer until Lidge comes back bothers me. Still believe Rube will pull a rabbit out of the hat on or about the close of ST.

Put me down for 94-96 wins and the NL East title over the Braves by 2.

[Matt]

I think this year's Phillies are slightly better than last year's team:

Position Players:
- Howard/Utley about the same
- Rollins 2010 > Rollins 2009
- Polanco slightly better than Feliz
- Outfield will be similar to last year
- Ruiz about the same
- Bench 2010 > Bench 2009 (addition by subtraction - no Bruntlett or Bako)

Starting rotation:
- Halladay > Lee + #5 starters the rest of the year
- Hamels 2010 > Hamels 2009
- Happ 2010 < Happ 2009
- Blanton/Moyer/Kendrick 2010 roughly the same as Blanton/Martinez/Moyer 2009

Bullpen
- Lidge 2010 > Lidge 2009 (could it be worse?)
- Madson/Contreras about the same as Madson/Park
- Romero 2010 > Romero 2009
- Bastardo/Zagurski 2010 < Eyre 2009
- Baez/Durbin 2010 < (slightly) Durbin/Condrey 2009 (While I think Baez > Condrey, I think Condrey got a bit lucky last year that I don't think Baez will duplicate)

So, a slight improvement on a World Series team, though with a more improved NL East it might not show in the win totals. Let's hope it's enough to get it done this year.

[fantusta]

Oh yes. Between Hamels and Young James having even average seasons (by their standards) this year, we'll be a huge step up.