Beerleaguer for breakfast: Phils deny big trade rumor

The Phillies deny it, but you know they’ve pulled out the measuring rod to compare their Big Piece with King Albert. Everyone does.

In the craziest mainstream-media rumor since that time FoxSports’ Ken Rosenthal told readers the Phillies would deal Cliff Lee to free up the funds for Roy Halladay, ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Phillies have had internal discussions about approaching St. Louis about a swap that would send Ryan Howard back to his hometown in exchange for league MVP Albert Pujols. Both are scheduled to become free agents after the 2011 season. Howard, 30, is two months older than King Albert. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury that the story was "absolutely ridiculous and irresponsible."

Beerleaguer: Ridiculous and irresponsible might be the best words to describe the Cardinals if they shortened the Pujols era by even one microsecond. He’s the most complete run producer in the game, hitting .327/.443/.658 in 2009, with equally strong numbers against righties and lefties. Compare that with Howard, who might have the better homer and RBI totals, but posted a impotent 98 OPS+ against lefties and can’t field the way Pujols can.

Pujols is the measuring rod with whom all others compare.

Comments

[EastFallowfield]

Crazy trade rumors thank the day Rosen had that Lee rumor, which now makes every single one of them historically plausible.

[EastFallowfield]

Of course, once knowing a Ken Rosen who looked a lot like Ken Rosenthal makes for occasional mistypings of the Fox guy's last name.

[Tim from Williamsport]

I could only hope the Cardinals front office would be stupid enough to entertain such a trade.

[EastFallowfield]

David Murphy does his own version of the BL staple: The Transcript Of An Imaginary Phillies Internal Conversation...

[Lake Fred]

As much as I love Ryan Howard, I'd make this trade in an instant. I know that it would never happen. One of Ken rosenthal's informants must've been heavy into his drugs to come up with this trade.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'd even throw in Yohan Flande & Tuffy Goosewich!!

[thephaithful]

I was in NYC yesterday and when i walked thru times square, the huge wrap around sports ticker read: Phils discuss Howard, Pujols swap.

Haha i laughed my ass off.

[PHIinBK]

Taking a minute to daydream about Pujols on the Phillies....wow.

What exactly would be the lineup? Pujols third and Utley fourth or vice versa? Utley second, Pujols third and Werth 4th?

I like this game.

[R.Billingsly]

I still chuckle every time I see mention of this rumor. I can't see this EVER coming to fruition.

[king myno]

Perhaps this outrageous rumor is a Mets/Braves/Reds/Dodgers "axis of evil" creation, designed to slowly pick away at the emotions of the best hitter and slugger on the two best teams in the National League.

[thephaithful]

myno: that post is an eye opener for how pathetic the NL really is - when the Mets and Reds are considered 'next in line'.

[Cliff]

The baseball statistics make this trade seem foolish. The financial statistics make this trade seem plausible. Which stats do you think DeWitt Jr. and DeWitt III are looking at?

[64 survivor]

What if St Louie knows that Albert wants $275MM/10yr and they know they can never meet that and they have info that Ryan would take a home town $100MM/5 yr, then do you do it ? or do you keep Albert and loose him completely in 2 yrs ?? Actually the other side of the coin is would the Phillies do it for 2 years knowing that they could not poney up with the $275MM after that time and Albert would walk ??

If we loose Ibanez, Howard and Werth in 2012 this would be a very different team !

[NEPP]

I like my imaginary discussion a bit more than Murphs...

Oh and its "Lose", not "Loose".

[Casey]

It's not so much that ESPN is bad, as it's hurting America.

[denny b.]

Grandpa getting knocked around in the "B" game, according to Salisbury.

[Andy]

I love that (very brief) High Cheese fictional (?) dialogue. I have another one to accompany it, but a monologue.

Omar Minaya (following actual Howard for Pujols trade) - S**T! S**T, S**T, S**T! (pause) S**T! Lo no creo! S**T!

[Andy]

I wonder how big, if this deal ever happened, would be the cigar in Middleton's mouth, the next time owners got together.

[MG]

Few comments:

- Howard in '06 was the superior player to Pujols even if people will bring up OPS, WAR, etc. 2nd half Howard in '06 (including August) was arguably the most dominant stretch I have even seen by a hitter that wasn't roided up.

- Pujols is hands-down the best player in baseball and isn't close. Been more impressive too since he hasn't had generally had the same caliber of hitters in the lineup around him since '05 either generally.

- Everyone talks about Howard holding up but I wonder how Pujols will over the longer-term. Had that surgically-repaired elbow and their are rumors that his back gives him more problems than he lets on.

- It is really a weird time to even have this rumor circulate. Olney wouldn't have put it out there if he didn't have at least one source to go on although I doubt he was able to verify it with two sources. I would bet that it was Dallas Green just because it is exactly the kind of thing he would say and he isn't afraid to say something the consequences be damned.

[John]

I guess I'll be the contrarian here, but I'd rather have Howard right now. He has fewer miles on him and is less injury prone. If St Louis would entertain trading Puljos it must be because they know something about his health. Also, the chemistry factor is not to be dismissed. Clearly the Phils have a good mix of guys in the clubhouse, there's no knowing how that would change if you make such a drastic move. I would also point out that Howard's defense last year improved tremendously.

[LwrSlwrGeorge]

Howard for Pujols may have been discussed in one of those "throw crap at the wall and see what sticks" sessions every organization has, be it MLB or the local pizza shop. Things are said and dismissed out of hand quickly. I admit I did get a chuckle over NEEP's and Murphy's scenarios.

If there is any truth to the published rumor, it probably came from some guy whose best friend's cousin's boyfriend who knows someone who works near the FO that heard disjointed conversation through the crack in a slightly open door.

[Bay Slugga]

John: Usually "chemistry" and the like are dismissed by people, but I think you raise a fair point.

I was very concerned about clubhouse chemistry when the Phillies let Burrell walk, but that obviously wasn't an issue.

There have been so many stories that have come out about Philadelphia being the place to play, and the locker room being one of the best. I would guess there is a lot of truth to this, and losing Howard probably would not be a problem.

Fair point though...

[PHIinBK]

I'm sorry but there's no way in any conceivable reality a person could rationally prefer Howard over Pujols. None. Zero. Zilch. Pujols is the best player in the game hands down next question.

[LwrSlwrGeorge]

Meant to add a last sentence:

Very reliable, that sort of thing.

[Andy]

"best player in the game"

Maybe. But Pedro Feliz' incomparable defensive intimidation certainly makes him more valuable.

Right?

[Meyer]

I am presently in Missouri and can't wait to listen to the local radio stations yap about this one. THIS IS Albert Country.

[Spitz]

Andy, one guy is 6'3" and one guy is 6'1". Who do you think is better?

[sifl]

Howard is taller than Pujols.

[Spitz]

As per Gelb's twitter:

Moyer is done in Dunedin. Final line: 3 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (63 pit, 41 strikes). Blue Jays had 7 regulars playing in B game.

KKKyle, there is a crack in the door.

[derekcarstairs]

As you emphasize correctly, I think, it is difficult to believe that the Cards would let Pujols go. If they ultimately decide that they can't afford him, though, then the first part of an unlikely scenario will be played out. Who knows what the second part then would be?

From the Phillies' standpoint, they have their own payroll issues and really don't need to compound those issues by adding Pujols to the mix. If they cannot afford to keep Howard, I prefer to see the Phillies add a cheaper power bat (Adam Dunn[?]) and a high quality pitcher whom they can slot between Hamels and Blanton. The diminished offense then would be offset by an enhanced pitching rotation, and the Phils could remain at an elite level for several years.

[MG]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Lefties_Who_is_available.html

Ron Mahay, you will join the Phils. It is your destiny.

[MG]

(to a minor league deal).

[NEPP]

****KKKyle, there is a crack in the door****

Announcer #1: He's cut!, He's cut!, Old Man Moyer is bleeding!

Announcer #2: We're starting to get some cheers for Kenrick here.

Russian crowd: KEN-DRICK, KEN-DRICK, KEN-DRICK!

[NEPP]

****Ron Mahay, you will join the Phils. It is your destiny. ****

Rube: Join me Ron! Together we can rule Lehigh as Father and Son!

[William Schweitzer]

Moyer's goose has been cooked since the fall of '08. If he doesn't retire (and I have absolutely no reason to believe that he will), he'll finish his career as the most expensive LOOGY in Philadelphia history.

Kendrick has more than earned his spot in the rotation. At 47 years old and in significant decline since the summer of two seasons ago, Jamie Moyer has not, regardless of what he's been able to do in his younger years.

[NEPP]

Moyer shouldn't retire. He's still a good option to have in case of injury. Besides, one bad start in a B Game is hardly the deathknell of his chances. He's still the favorite for the 5th spot by a good margin.

[awh]

Schweitz & Co:

Are you really the kinds of short-sighted fans here who are ready to bury Moyer after one, as in "1", as in "0 + 1", you know..."zero plus one" outing?

Sheesh, the next thing I'll see on this board are calls for Hamels' demotion the first time he gets shelled.

As for the Pujols/Howard thing:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

yeah, right.

Next.

[ozark]

I hope Howard stays for his career so his #6 can be retired.

[William Schweitzer]

Ah, awh, but if it were "only one outing" from a man who isn't nearly twice Kendrick's age.

I suppose we'll have to go through another half season of ineffectiveness before we show Mr. Moyer the bullpen door.

[Brian G]

A Howard-Pujols swap couldn't make less sense for the Cardinals.

[Reverend]

I feel that there is a conspiracy with St. Louis bloggers, Philadelphia bloggers and Buster Olney to drive up traffic during Spring Training.
JW was in it from the beginning!!

[R.Billingsly]

I want Kendrick to win/earn/whatever the 5th starter spot on the 25-man. But, I believe NEPP hit the nail on the head when he said:

Besides, one bad start in a B Game is hardly the deathknell of his chances. He's still the favorite for the 5th spot by a good margin.

It is still Moyer's job to lose, not Kendrick's to win. One bad start is not going to convince the Phils' brass otherwise. Barring injury, I think Moyer will at least begin the season as the 5th starter.

[aksmith]

With all those regulars in the lineup, it seems that Moyer is what he has been ever since the season before he came to the Phillies: A guy who can't get through an American League lineup to save his life.

The AL is a breaking ball league. They are not in the least bit intimidated by the old man. It takes impatient NL lineups to be baffled by that garbage he throws.

I'd love to see Kendrick win the job. But I am not a Moyer basher. He proved that he could be effective in the pen last season. As a change of pace, he was pretty amazing.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

I think Reverend could be right, it's a web sports information and rumor marketing ploy. Either that, or St. Louis is concerned that their attendance slipped below the 3.5M mark last year and they're convinced that swapping the second coming of Lou Gehrig for hte hometown boy could push them back over the top.

[Jonathan]

I am a huge Howard fan but of course I would do this. One thing I disagreed with on Beerleaguer was the fielding. I know this isn't just Beerleaguer as everyone pretty much feels that Howard is inferior to Pujols in respect to fielding. Anyways I just wanted to point out that Howard only had one more error than Pujols in 09.

[thephaithful]

after thinking more about it, maybe this trade isn't the dumbest thing in the world.

It would all depend on St. Louis' belief that a long term extension could be made with Howard that would be affordable comapred to their projection of Pujols. If thats the case, then passing on the better player for two years and getting Howard at your price for 5-7yrs isn't such a bad idea.

And for the Phillies, you save approx $4M in 2010 and 2011, considerably upgrade your team, and even give yourself a right handed bat in 2011.

I think if this rumor has any crediblity, it would suggest that the Phillies may not be confident in extending Howard.

[Grumpy Gramps]

I agree that barring injury Jamie will be the 5th starter. If that is the case, would KK and the Phils be better served sitting in the bullpen during the early season, or starting on a regular basis with the Pigs?

[donc]

KK has only to look back one year to see the blueprint for what his season could become. He's in precisely the same spot as Happ last season. The only difference is he isn't a rookie. He'll probably start the season in the pen and get his shot at the rotation soon enough. Even if he starts the season in LV, he'll get first crack at a starting spot should someone be ineffective or get injured. And you know at some point someone will. But if he does suffer that disappointment he's got to handle like Happ did. No whining and feeling sorry for himself. Do what you have to to stay sharp and be ready when the time comes. I remember Happ popping off a little bit when he came up short against Park and that's to be expected with that kind of disappointment. But he obviously didn't let it get to him. He took it like a man and everything worked out in the end. Hell he almost won ROY.

[MG]

NEPP - My bet is that those 2 appearances he had early and looked really good sealed the deal officially for the Phils to make Moyer the No. 5 starter. If Moyer had come back and struggled/got reinjured, then there might have been an opening for KK.

KK could probably help the team a bit more if he opens with them on Opening Day in the short term but they (and he probably is too) are better off if he opens the season in Lehigh as a starter. Inevitable that he will get called up and start at least a few games at some point this season.

[MG]

Funny thing I heard yesterday from my friend who has been down in Clearwater was that "Castro looks like he doesn't completely suck" at the plate. Told him Bruntlett hit .360 last year in spring training and he just laughed.

[awh]

phaithful, read Murph's blog. It makes NO sense for the Cards right now.

2010
Howard $19MM
Pujols $16MM

2011
Howard $20MM
Pujols $16MM

That's $7MM more for Howard just in the next 2 years.

Why wouldn't they just wait and sign Howard as a free agent?

[PhillyBlunt]

Can I just say:

"The AL is a breaking ball league. They are not in the least bit intimidated by the old man. It takes impatient NL lineups to be baffled by that garbage he throws. "

That has no relation to reality.
Thanks for playing.

[awh]

Plus, Pujols has a LNTC which might gum up the works unless he got an extension before the trade.

And, the Phillies being the Phillies (that is, bottom line oriented) may prefer to sign Howard themselves if, in fact, he's going to cost less that Pujols.

Even if such a trade were to occur, it wouldn't occur until both players have one year left on their contracts.

Nice to dream though....

2011 Phils lineup:

JRoll
Polly
Utley
Pujols
Raul
Vic
Brown
Chooch

[MG]

The timing of the Howard/Pujols rumor and the source is what I am most interested in. A trade like this would almost never happen and certainly not in spring training even if the players were more comparable.

There likely was a reason why this Olney was allowed to catch a whiff of this and decided to run it. People bash him for several reasons but I wouldn't put Olney in the 'hack' category who runs everything he hears. Sure this was a sexy rumor that was almost guaranteed to generate some real buzz for 24-36 hrs but I still can't figure out a valid reason why this was fed to Olney from somebody in the Phils' organization. Doesn't seem to be the kind of thing that you run an 'off the record' comment because of it pissing off Amaro and the Phils' FO.

[Mike Scuilli]

Polanco limped off field, not good

[awh]

PBlunt, what's the percentage an fastballs vs. offspeed in each league?

(I've never see it.)

[Bubba]

I'm a big Moyer supporter , but I would not be all that surprised if he starts the year in the 'pen.
Consider that his injuries from last year were earlier projected to keep him from being ready by openning day , and the team does need a lefty in the 'pen to start the year.
If KK has the hot hand going in 2 weeks , Charlie might give him the 5th spot for a while. Jamie & Kyle will get plenty of starts before 2010 is over if they both stay healthy.

[CAS]

Polanco hurt on infield fly - helped off the field by trainers

[thephaithful]

awh: i'm not campaigning that this trade rumor is the right move - just playing devil's advocate and not dismissing completely.

If the cards decide to wait until free agency, what if the Phils extend him sooner or another team considerably outbids them? Then they let albert walk and end up with no Howard either.

And why did you post the salaries when my post specifically said they Phils would save money in '10 and '11?

[toddzilla]

not good. not good at all. Do you know what he hurt CAS?

[donc]

Yo. New Teeshirt.

[awh]

"The timing of the Howard/Pujols rumor and the source is what I am most interested in. A trade like this would almost never happen and certainly not in spring training even if the players were more comparable."

MG, exactly.

I'll bet someone in the FO was speculating:

Exec. A: "I wonder what woudl happen if the Cards can't extend Albert? Do you think they'd try to trade him?"

Exec B: "Maybe if they tought they could get equal value for him."

Exec A: "What's equal value?"

Exec B: "I don't know...maybe if we offered them Howard and a prospect they'd take it as long as they could sign Howard long-term."

Exec A: "Would they take that?"

Exec B: "If it was the difference between just getting two draft picks or having someone like Howard what would you do? He hits .380 at Busch."

Exec A: "I'd do the deal, I guess. But, could we really pay Pujols the money he's looking for? Who could?"

Exec B: "Well, I guess the Yankees could, but they'd have to move Texiera. The Red Sox. The Cubs could, Lee's contract expires after this season, and it would be a huge coup for them to sign Pujols as an FA, especially given that they'd weaken a division rival. The Mets could. So could some of the other big market teams line the Angels or Dodgers. Maybe even the White Sox. He's also make a tremendous centerpice for the Nats - Lerner has the money if he wants to spend it.

"Let me check with Monty to see if we'd even be willing to sign Albert for what he's looking for."

[Dials phone, has conversation, hangs up and turns to Exec A]

"Monty says 'NO 'EFFIN' WAY'.

He says you have a better chance of him paying to clone Ted Williams from his frozen head than lay out $275MM for one player."
____________________________________________

Exec A then mentions it to Olney as a funny anecdote, and Olney reports it to drive up blog traffic and get his name out there. (Olney conveniently forgets to include Montgomery's reaction.)

[PhillyBlunt]

awh: you've never seen it because it's not even a red herring...it's a non-entity. The different leagues have nothing to do with what types of pitches the pitchers throw.
Come on!

[mm]

I think that Buster Olney thinks that the organization has such a hard for the yankees, that we'd even consider needing Pujols to win. What garbage. We lost that series because the Yankees destroyed all but 1 starter on our team.

We addressed that by getting Roy Halladay.