Be mindful of the misdirection; Phils, Rays play today

The transition from March to April is rarely straightforward.

Not that there's a reason to reassure oneself about the uselessness of spring stats, but this morning, I looked up some of the all-time misleading springs in Beerleaguer history. Brett Myers had a few. Fresh off a very generous three-year, $25.75 million contract extension, a slimmed-down Myers arrived in Clearwater in 2007 ready to turn the page and become the staff ace after an ugly season that included an arrest in Boston. Three disastrous starts into the season and Myers was moved to the bullpen. Then in 2008, he grudgingly accepted a rotation reassignment, and statistically, appeared to be ready, going 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in spring. He was demoted to the IronPigs in early July.

Myers is one of a dozen examples. Aaron Rowand hit something like .170 during '07 spring training and was reportedly on the trade block. Nine months later, he finalized a five-year, $60 million deal with San Francisco following a monster year. And of course, there was Eric Bruntlett.

Usually, warning signs are better identified through physical observation. Ryan Howard arrived fat and out of shape in '07 and was a complete mess for months. Cole Hamels arrived in '09 unprepared and paid for it all season.

But it's not just stats; rosters rarely shake out the way they're supposed to. This spring, the process seems pretty straight forward, but the Phillies, and injuries, of course, have a way of complicating things. Speaking of 2007, do you remember that Karim Garcia was expected to capture the fifth outfielder spot based on a strong showing and lack of internal depth, only to be released before Opening Day? Often, the Phillies seem to devote most of their focus toward acquiring last-minute help from the outside. In '07, they filled their final spot with reliever Francisco Rosario, then juggled rosters once again when Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia came off the DL, sending a month's worth of roster speculation down the drain.

The Phillies say they're comfortable letting young guys like Antonio Bastardo and Sergio Escalona duke it out for the final spot in the 'pen, but don't be surprised if the 25th man is currently in some other camp. Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero's status could also become a critical factor. Plus, the Phillies have a number of players without roles who would be attractive to other clubs.

Game chat: J.A. Happ makes first official Grapefruit Leauge start today at 1 p.m. against the Rays. Phillippe Aumont, Drew Naylor, Jesus Sanchez, David Herndon, Johan Flande and Joe Savery will also put in work. Lineups are posted. Rollins (SS), Polanco (3B), Utley (2B), Howard (1B), Ibanez (LF), Francisco (CF), Brown (RF), Gload (DH) and Schneider (C). Pat Burrell starts in right field against his old team.

Comments

[mvptommyd]

I am not so sure Garcia was "expected to capture" the 5th OFer spot.

If you remember the Phillies chose to go younger. That is why they had Werth, Roberson and Bourne play for the Phillies OF instead of keeping an old Garcia (31 at the time).

[denny b.]

Is this the deepest group of OF's, both at the major league and high minor league (AA and AAA) levels ever in club history? What quality depth, they have ammassed.

Its a very small sample size, but I really like what I have seen out of Gillies and Brown. They both have a lot of tools in their toolbox.

[Brett]

Polanco turned a DP. Best. Phillies. 3B. Ever.

[MG]

Myers in '07 has to be the most recent high-profile example in Phils' recent history (say last 25 years) who showed up to camp in great shape, said all the right things, posted strong results, and completely melted down in less than 3 weeks from Opening Day. Fortunately for Myers, Gordon broke down right out of the gate and Cholly had a strong case to move him to the closer role.

April '07 is definitely going to go down as one of those 'what-if' periods when you look back because I really thought Gillick was going to fire Cholly after coming up short again in '06 and getting out to such a terrible start despite the entire spring training emphasizing how important it was to start strong. I wanted Cholly gone too. I would have to look back but I can't remember really any one in the Philly media or even this blog that was a strong advocate of keeping Cholly as the manager in April '07.

Funny how things work out and in a relatively short-time period.

[awh]

Spitz, did you even read my comment on the previous thread?

You do know what sarcasm is, no?

[Jack]

JW: Great post.

[Malachi]

Domonic Brown is such a stud. Jesus. 2 more hits, 2 more RBIs..

[fljerry]

Brown had 3 more hits today

[MG]

Honestly Brown could hit .500 in spring training and I wouldn't care one iota. More interested to see how he does with AA pitching the first 2-3 months of the season this year and if he shows a bit more pop at Reading.

[mvptommyd]

I am going to preface these statements regarding today's game with saying, it is ONLY ST:

- Impressed with Dom Brown. He sounds like he is seeing the ball well after 3 more hits today. And does anyone else think it is a little interesting that he has been in LF as well this ST?

- Savery had a bad game.

- Aumont seemed like he was more comfortable today on the mound.

- Pat the bat, same old guy. Hit into a double play with guys on base. Had the chance to make something happen.

Overall it was good to hear Jimmy getting his first HR of the year and a bunch of other players as well.

April can't get here soon enough!

[Yanks Fan]

You are all a bunch of donkeys who root for a trash team in a trash city. Glad you got to see how a real team plays ball in the WS. Clowns.

[dlhunter]

Do not feed the unemployed trolls.

[Doohickey]

The quality of the trolling as really declined lately. Anyone else notice that?

[sonofjake]

Just returned from a few days in mostly sunny, but unseasonably cold weather in Florida, so I realize this may be old news. Went to Phils/Yanks game Thursday. I realize it's (very early in) spring training but here's 2 observations: I'll be stunned if Halladay doesn't win at least 20 games this year. Never saw him pitch live before - he truly is the real deal. Second - I like Polly, wanted Phillies to keep him when they let him go, but he'll need some time to settle in. I'm reasonably confident he'll make the adjustment - his fielding on the throwing error grounder was quite good - but I think we've been "spoiled" by Feliz' cannon of an arm.

[mikes77phillies]

JW mentioned that there were a number of players that have no role on the Phillies that other teams would like. Who are they?

[NEPP]

Wouldn't it be pretty sweet if Dom Brown broke out in a ridiculous fashion this year at Reading...and hopefully Lehigh?

[Andy]

most yanks fans have class -
quite a lot by most standards -
all of it low, though

[awh]

Excellent, Andy.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"Honestly Brown could hit .500 in spring training and I wouldn't care one iota. More interested to see how he does with AA pitching the first 2-3 months of the season this year and if he shows a bit more pop at Reading.

Posted by: MG | Sunday, March 07, 2010 at 06:08 PM"

While I agree with the spirit of the statement, I have to wonder if there's anything you actually do enjoy besides LOOGY discussions?

[Spitz]

AWH - no, I don't know what sacasm is. But wait, am I being sarcastic now?

[thephaithful]

mikes: I would assume he means the large depth the Phils have in the OF, with the likes of Mayberry/Wise/Francisco all being 4/5th OF candidates.

[Spitz]

Billy Wagner is one of the leaders on the Braves? Maybe we shouldn't be too worried about that club...

http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/wagner-has-quickly-become-340028.html

[MG]

BB - You have me. That is all I ever post about. I am going to start a blog devoted to left-handed relievers and name it after my all-time hero Jesse Orosco. Any suggestions?

Spring training stats are nearly meaningless. As much as I won't get excited about Brown if he does really well, I won't get down on him if he really struggles too. Same with any of the prospects in camp who will see a handful of playing time.

[mikes77phillies]

MG does not just post about Loogys. He also posts about RH middle relievers. Even mixes it up and complains about the offensive production of the backup catcher every now and then.

[EastFallowfield]

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