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Friday, February 05, 2010

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It's about time MLB allowed you to do such a thing. I'll probably keep going to firstinning.com during the regular season for their team reports though.

"1-for-2 with three stolen bases [including stealing home]." Sounds like a September call-up, pinch runner to me ala Michael Bourn in '06. I can dig that.

All of a sudden, the Phils' org is flush with Michael Bourn-like or poor man's Michael Bourn-like prospects.

Good for Sept call up.

Also, maybe it gives the Phils the option to try to trade Vic after '10 season, and have the ability to re-sign Werth??

you think Guzmon is a replacement for Vic?

Interesting

We count it a steal as soon as he leads off third, right?

"a poor man's michael bourn" ... the economy must have created a new type of poverty to compare baseball players.

Unikruk, LOL....no question.....if a pitcher gets 18 outs and never comes back into a game - and that constitutes actually pitching "into the 7th-9th innings", then if a guy leads off 3B we can count it as stealing home!!! :)

beautiful!

I contend that he is homeward bound as soon as he REACHES third. The wheels are in motion.

Unikruk: excellent. I have to remember not to take a big sip of coffee while reading BL.

Freddy Guzman's greatest baseball achievement is to earn 2 separate Beerleaguer postings. I tip my cap to you, sir.

Unikruk -- it counts when Richie says "he looks runnerish"

***Freddy Guzman's greatest baseball achievement is to earn 2 separate Beerleaguer postings. I tip my cap to you, sir. ***

How many behind Bruntlett does that put him?

50? 60?

****"a poor man's michael bourn" ... the economy must have created a new type of poverty to compare baseball players.****

Gold glove CF who nearly hit .300 last year? When you toss in his better defense and much better speed, Bourn was probably more valuable than Victorino last year.

WAR for 2009:

Bourn: 4.2
Vic: 3.4

Just sayin'. Wade actaully got a pretty good value out of Lidge in the end.

I wouldn't bring it up NEPP. I remeber people who were annoyed to lose Costanzo.

Rodeo, yeah, if I recall some people were implying he could be the second coming of Scott rolen. :)

It is a shame that Costanzo didn't work out, being a local boy and Phillies phan. Would've been a nice story.

Yeah, that Costanzo guy was fantastic. Ashame he struck out maybe 700 times a year and pitchers realized all his holes.

Thanks for the link to Carib BB so help me out I note tha the two top sluggers are phils (mayberry and Sebsatian) I know ofMayberry who is the 19 year old catcher? And do these numbers have any significance?

Valle is our top catching prospect and is considered to be a pretty good hitter.

His defense is questionable at best from all reports. He's got time to figure that part out though.

Thank God for BL. In the winter doldrums, BL is an oasis for the starving for information Phillies fan. With that link page on MLB to follow the Phillies prospects playing in the tropics over the winter, I now can know Who Dat might be playing for the Phillies in the future (or to be traded away for another Halladay).

Thanks NEPP I wonder what level Carib baseball is at relative to US Minors

I'd say the level is comparable to high-A. Lots of subpar talent scattered throughout the rosters.

Freddy was actually considered a decent prospect at one time. His speed and his glove had scouts drooling. The idea was that as he got older his idea of the strike zone would get better. When he started out, his K rate was ridiculous for a guy with zero power, but if he could lay off bad pitches and slap at the ball, he had achance to have a nice career. He showed signs of doing that in Trip A at age 25 but then he just kind of stalled and started to go backwards. His K rate went up and his OB went down.

He put up a .223/.273/.294 line last season in Trip A. He is a poor man's Michael Bourn in the same way that Adam Eaton is a poor man's Roger Clemens.

Seems like Reading and Allentown are going to be well stocked once again with a ton of minor league FA or MLB journeyman. Wonder if it leads the minor leagues again at the top 2 levels.

Without the Lee trade, their would be almost no reason to watch Reading/Allentown early in the year with the exception of Brown and maybe 1-2 other players.

I'm sure the rest of the league's AA/AAA teams are stocked with future MVPs...

With guzman stealing home we at least have one aspect of Werth's game covered in case conventional wisdom prevails and he is gone post 2010.

Reading should at least have a decent rotation with Aumont and JC Ramirez there. And possibly guys like Stutes and Worley repeating.

And maybe even an Edgar Garcia (remember when he was a prospect) sighting...assuming his visa issues are a thing of the past. Hard to believe Garcia is only 22.

I wouldn't give up in Edgar Garcia but I wouldn't expect much either. As you said NEPP he is 22 so he's one good year away at AA from being a legit prospects. From the scouting reports the ability is there now he just needs results.

"He is a poor man's Michael Bourn in the same way that Adam Eaton is a poor man's Roger Clemens."

That's g__ d__n funny.

So...everyone ready for the snow?

Sorry, there's a lull and I'm bored.

I think Bourne will be on the lower side of a 75 OPS+ in 2010. Can't see pitchers letting him walk that much again.

Wish I was in Clearwater.

Bubba: me too. I'm doing my best to get down there this year. I've been twice before during ST and gosh is it great.

Thephaithful: I'll take that bet in a heartbeat. It's pretty hard to be under 75 OPS+. Pedro Feliz had an 81 OPS+ last year, and he was pretty awful (.266/.308/.386).

Bourn had pretty decent OBP numbers in the minors. He's never going to hit for power (or even .300+ average probably), but he should be able to sit around a .350 OBP. With his defense and speed, that's a pretty good player, particularly when they only have to pay him 2.4 million dollars.

thephaithful: I'll take the over, although I see Jack beat me to it with Bourn's minor league OB stats. Strike zone judgment is not a weakness for Bourn. I can't disagree with Jack's overall assessment either: he'll post a .350 OB, won't hit .300 or show any power, but given he's a Gold Glover in CF and led the league in steals, he's a pretty valuable player no matter how sad that fact makes you.

Feliz was at 81 huh, maybe I will change my statement to the low side of 81 then.

I think he'll stay in the lower .300s, his .350OBP last year was helped by a walking at a +9% clip. With a lot Ks, no power, and his skills on the basepaths - I don't think he'll be getting free passes at that rate any more.

in the past decade, there have been 32 player seasons where a player has walked 50+ times in 540+PA(borne's BB/PA rate in 2009) while slugging under .400 and striking out over 100 times.

Aside from Chone Figgins, the majority of the list is usually power type guys whose SLG is so low because they have awful years that dont hit the ball often enough to register a decent SLG...and Michael Bourne's 2009 season.

R.Billingsly

I never have been there during ST, but I love the area.

I used to know an umpire who went every spring and it was the highlight of his year.

No way I can it this year---- Oh Well- there's always next year

And i agree, his defense and speed for ~$2M is definite value - i just think his bat will keep him from being valuable enough to contribute to a winning team aside from a bench role.

Especially when he's making more money in arb and losing some steps in the following years.

"i just think his bat will keep him from being valuable enough to contribute to a winning team aside from a bench role."

Not sure exactly what you're getting at. He was fourth in WAR last year among qualified NL Centerfielders--a slight notch above Victorino (whom, I believe, was a contributor to a winning team).

Also, free passes aren't charity, offered up on the good graces of the pitcher. Strike zone judgment matters.

I don't know; I take a modicum of pleasure in Bourn's success. The Astros are no threat. And score another one for the Phillies farm system and what not. Rah rah.

Isn't Bourne pretty much what we hope Gillies will become? Juan Pierre with plate discipline and a Gold Glove is a pretty accurate description, and that's a plenty valuable CFer.

The Phils just signed 2 Japanese Ballers, Yamakita & Okamoto. Organ fillers?

Both the Japanese players are lefty relievers. They were in the minors in Japan so expectations should be low. I'd still like to see the Phillies sign a vet lefty to a minor league deal in case Romero isn't ready to start the season. Mahay will probably get a ML deal, Embree or Villone should be available though.

Both the Japanese players are lefty relievers. They were in the minors in Japan so expectations should be low. I'd still like to see the Phillies sign a vet lefty to a minor league deal in case Romero isn't ready to start the season. Mahay will probably get a ML deal, Embree or Villone should be available though.

Chris in VT: Exactly right. Very similar players and both have higher K rates than they should.

philsphan: Villone is cooked. Embree might be worth a look/see

Villone might be cooked, but someone will offer a contract. After all, it ain't over 'til the fat LOOGY signs.

I like that move. Keeps Gillick in the mix. Wasn't long ago there were conspiracy theories circling the BL comment section about Gillick going to SEA or Toronto b/c he lives there "full time". Seems happy in the Phils org.

MPN, thanks for the link. It's funny that it got reported in Toronto and not in the Philly rags.

22+ inches here in Wilmginton suburbs. Fun stuff. My wife left for Florida on Thursday. So smart.

An interesting wuote from that article makes me think that perhaps Montgomery should think about a perpetual option on the Gillick contract:


"Gillick guided the Jays, the Orioles, Mariners and the Phillies to post-season play 11 times total in 20 seasons -- taking two seasons off and twice serving as a consultant with the Jays and the Mariners.

The Jays, Orioles and Mariners now are a combined 0-for-33 attempting to make post-season since he left each position as a GM."

CY, we're somewhere around 18-20" here in the Philly burbs. I am not enjoying the shoveling.

At least we havev power. Coastal DE and NJ seem to have a lot of outages. We are over 2 feet now easy.

Boneheadedly, I drove to Pittsburgh on Friday for an event that I could have opted out of.
I am now stranded in Pittsburgh with 18"+. And a six hour drive away from home in South Jersey, where 24" await me.

I think Embree isn't much better than Villone. I'd rather have Mahay than either of those two but wouldn't mind seeing one of them at AAA on a minor league deal and nothing more. Worst case they turn out like Steve Kline in '08, no real loss.

These snow reports are bizarre. In Staten Island we got about 2. And it's over.

Weird storm.

I'm guessing the remaining LOOGY plan is to stash a few borderline arms of questionable worth at AAA on a minor league contract. If any of them get hot at a time that a LOOGY is needed they get the call. Otherwise they remain pigs for a year.

I'm guessing we all pretty much know that already.

I'm guessing we're only talking about it because we don't want to discuss when the seventh inning really starts.

Crazy snow for you guys. We have maybe 2 inches on the ground in VT and we've hardly had any snow all year...just one major storm so far.

Scott lauber has a nice piece over at Philled In:

http://blogs.delawareonline.com/philledin/

We got zero inches in north NJ.

It was sunny and 12 degrees at my place today. Looked great but frigid all day.

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